Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

[Ludo]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I honestly don't know anything about Britt or Calcavante. All I know is the line out on Overeem is WAY too high given Rogers' chance to win this fight. I would have thought Overeem's line to be somewhere closer to -150ish

[poopoo333]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I honestly don't know anything about Britt or Calcavante. All I know is the line out on Overeem is WAY too high given Rogers' chance to win this fight. I would have thought Overeem's line to be somewhere closer to -150ish

Ok, my case for picking Overeem:

Overeem has the grappling advantage
Overeem is the more technical of the two when it comes to striking. Overeem has been fighting the best in K1, and has been winning.
Overeem has the cardio advantage (I am pretty sure this is the case, but he hasn't been out of the first round in awhile in MMA). But Rogers gassed out from pinning a 230 lb man on the fence for a couple minutes.

People are making a case for Rogers for his win over AA and his fight with Fedor. Rogers bum rushed AA and got the KO, who knows what would have happened if the fight went on longer then a minute? Rogers won't do this to Overeem. People say Rogers was beating Fedor before he got KO'd. No he wasn't. He was ragdolled when it came to being put on the mat... he ended up on top in a scramble and landed a few shots before Fedor's armbar attempt. Landing a jab, holding someone against the fence before easily being pushed off, and landing a few shots from the top does not mean he was winning the fight.

Rogers has a punchers chance imo. That's it. I see this fight remaining on the feet with Overeem patiently picking his shots, and maybe some clinch action against the fence where Overeem won't be in trouble.

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I honestly don't know anything about Britt or Calcavante. All I know is the line out on Overeem is WAY too high given Rogers' chance to win this fight. I would have thought Overeem's line to be somewhere closer to -150ish

I had this fight pegged at -200 so I agree its too high

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I honestly don't know anything about Britt or Calcavante. All I know is the line out on Overeem is WAY too high given Rogers' chance to win this fight. I would have thought Overeem's line to be somewhere closer to -150ish

Ok, my case for picking Overeem:

Overeem has the grappling advantage
Overeem is the more technical of the two when it comes to striking. Overeem has been fighting the best in K1, and has been winning.
Overeem has the cardio advantage (I am pretty sure this is the case, but he hasn't been out of the first round in awhile in MMA). But Rogers gassed out from pinning a 230 lb man on the fence for a couple minutes.

People are making a case for Rogers for his win over AA and his fight with Fedor. Rogers bum rushed AA and got the KO, who knows what would have happened if the fight went on longer then a minute? Rogers won't do this to Overeem. People say Rogers was beating Fedor before he got KO'd. No he wasn't. He was ragdolled when it came to being put on the mat... he ended up on top in a scramble and landed a few shots before Fedor's armbar attempt. Landing a jab, holding someone against the fence before easily being pushed off, and landing a few shots from the top does not mean he was winning the fight.

Rogers has a punchers chance imo. That's it. I see this fight remaining on the feet with Overeem patiently picking his shots, and maybe some clinch action against the fence where Overeem won't be in trouble.

I agree with everything you say poopoo but I just think the line is too high.If this was -150 I'd 100% be on it .If it was -200 I'd probably be on it but its -275 to -300 . I dont bet odds that high unless I'm really sure about a fight and this isnt one to me. Do I expect Overeem to win? Yes but that doesnt mean I'm going to lay odd higher than the line I made for this fight.Thats one reason I make a line before the actual odds come out

[Ludo]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Oh I never said Overeem shouldn't be the favorite. I just don't like that his line makes out like he wins this fight 7-8 out of 10 times. I agree he's the better all around fighter. But Rogers hits like a mack truck and I just haven't seen Overeems chin tested by anyone like that yet at Heavyweight. Maybe I'm wrong since I haven't followed him through K-1 in the last two years but I just doubt that he's got the kind of chin that would stand up to Rogers' type punches, especially if Rogers can get hold of him against the cage and set up a couple good shots. I like Overeem to win this fight about half the time, maybe 55-60% at most. But Rogers brings a very real threat to the table. It wouldn't surprise Me at all if Rogers wins the belt on Saturday. But I just don't see a justification for Overeem being this much of a favorite in the lines, especially since he hasn't fought in the US in over two years.

[poopoo333]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Yeah I agree with you guys about the lines. I took it at -260 tonight because I don't know if it will get any better. I think I predicted it to be a -200 line.

[Ludo]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I doubt it will get any better. In fact it'll probably shoot to about -310 or -325 by fight time. Barring a small play on Rogers purely for value I'll probably abstain from this fight.

[poopoo333]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I doubt it will get any better. In fact it'll probably shoot to about -310 or -325 by fight time. Barring a small play on Rogers purely for value I'll probably abstain from this fight.

Yeah that is why I took him now, the line was almost -300 before I left to work tonight. But yeah, I agree Rogers has value. I think AA and Overeem will be the only bets I make. I was considering a Jacare/Roger parlay, but everytime I make a parlay involving MMA, I lose. The only other bets I may make are on Britt and Beerbohm for small value plays.

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I doubt it will get any better. In fact it'll probably shoot to about -310 or -325 by fight time. Barring a small play on Rogers purely for value I'll probably abstain from this fight.

You never know I've seen alot of talk from people that dont know much about MMA saying they were betting Rogers based off his Fedor preformance .So you might get a bunch of nonregular MMA bettors pushing the line down on fight day.

I'm not worried about it though unless it drops far I'm not touching it

For those that want a good line I know I always say this but go to matchbook. Overeem is -248 at matchbook
(-260 5dimes ,-275 bookmaker) ,Arlovski is -170 at matchbook(-195 at 5dimes,-200 at bookmaker)

[BillyPilgrim]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I didn't think Rogers was that impressive against Fedor. He basically just went apeshit trying to land a punch, Pudz style. And then he blew his wad, which is what happens if you throw everything 100% for 3 or 4 minutes. I honestly think he fluked out against Arlovski. Personally, I feel that Rogers will drop out of the top 10 and become a footnote quite soon. He doesn't have technique, speed, stamina or grappling. I think Overeem will beat him handily. The only question is whether Overeem will get DQd for ball shots.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I am thinking about getting on Shaolin now.

going to review Beerbohm's takedown defense. Though I saw an interview where Beerbohm was saying, "wherever the fight goes, i'm fine with it, I'll grapple with him." I have read a few interviews, and I think Beerbohm might be mildly mentally retarded.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Ok.

I have seen what I needed to see. Shaolin is undervalued.

If you need convincing, watch Beerbohm's fight with Oliveira: http://fliiby.com/file/123240/dbecy8gx8o.html

Beerbohm got dominated beat up the whole round, and he was nearly submitted several times. He Joe Warren'd his way out of a very deep armbar. He definitely lost the round, and was taken down easily. But even more important, his standup is not very good, he is a grappler, mostly a wrestler- he wanted to grapple with Oliveira even though he was clearly in over his head. He won because he cut Oliveira with an elbow with about 10 seconds left in the round. And they wouldn't let Oliveira continue. He comes forward guns blazing on his feet and is going to walk right into a takedown.

Ribeiro is maybe the best grappler in the LW division (yeah, better than BJ ans Aoki wanted nothing to do with the ground against him). His standup is horrible though.

Shaolin has only lost to top top flight guys, JZ, Kawajiri, and Aoki. But he has also beaten some top flight guys, Hansen, Kawajiri, and Ishida. And at one point, a lot of people thought Shaolin was #1 or 2 in the world.

I just don't see Beerbohm beating him. The only hiccup is that Beerbohm is the kind of guy that flat out won't tap. So Shaolin is going to have to put him to sleep. Shaolin by arm triangle.

Also, Beerbohm is trying to get out of the promotion for some reason. http://mmajunkie.com/news/19047/desp...nkie.com+Feed)
Seems like his head is somewhere else. Maybe he is hurt, maybe he is just crazy.

Also, Beerbohm trains himself in his hometown. No team, no training camp. He is going to be overwhelmed. Its his first time in a really big fight.

I think it is an easy fight for Shaolin. 4u on Shaolin @ -170

I actually feel compfortable with more. I might go to 5 or 6, because I think there is a lot of value to Shaolin.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Oh, and I am not going to be in Roger's entourage. Fell through.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Oh, and I am not going to be in Roger's entourage. Fell through.

Maybe Billy will?

[poopoo333]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Interesting analysis on the Shaolin fight... I might follow.