UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

[SPX]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

Loving that BJ line, wish I could get down on that now.

Loving Florini as well.

I'm surprised there's not more discussion going on around here about both of these.

Personally, I will probably stay away from the Penn/Edgar fight unless something happens with the line or unless I put Penn in a parlay. I just think that Edgar has a style which confuses opponents with the way he's constantly in motion and never stands still long enough to get hit cleanly. He could come out and do the exact same thing in this fight as he did in the last one, so either Penn comes down, or Edgar's line goes up, or I'm not betting.

I have already dropped 1.5u on Florian and I'm surprised that line hasn't moved more than it has. I was at work yesterday when Florian opened at even and I just KNEW that by the time I got home he'd be like -190. Luckily, he wasn't. Maynard hasn't looked awesome in his last few fights and Florian's takedown defense has looked much improved as of late. I expect Florian to take his soul, Shang Tsung style.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I just think that Edgar has a style which confuses opponents with the way he's constantly in motion and never stands still long enough to get hit cleanly.

I think this time, BJ just gets a hold of him and taps him. Your right, that Hummingbird style is tuff.

[Ludo]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

Without a doubt BJ will come out looking for a takedown early. That drift in and drift out style was something BJ made famous, Edgar just takes it to a whole other level with the way he wades WAY out and then comes back in. His agility is definitely the enemy for anyone he fights, unless they can grab him and get him to the ground. If BJ ends up on top there's no way Edgar wins.

[SPX]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I'd say I agree with you, but with Edgar's wrestling, I wouldn't be surprised if the grappling elements actually cancel each other out.

I know GSP was bigger, plus he's GSP, but we've seen that Penn CAN be outwrestled.

[zY|]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I'd say I agree with you, but with Edgar's wrestling, I wouldn't be surprised if the grappling elements actually cancel each other out.

I know GSP was bigger, plus he's GSP, but we've seen that Penn CAN be outwrestled.

I think your point is good in that BJ may have problems securing the takedown. But once he's on top, unless Frankie is able to scramble up immediately, he's going to have big problems. BJ Penn has the best guard passing and mount/back control in all of MMA. If Penn ever got on top of even GSP it wouldn't be good.

I think it's a really compelling matchup (much like the Shogun/Machida rematch Saturday), in that one guy utilized an effective strategy, so now we have to see whether the other guy can make adjustments.

[SPX]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I think your point is good in that BJ may have problems securing the takedown. But once he's on top, unless Frankie is able to scramble up immediately, he's going to have big problems. BJ Penn has the best guard passing and mount/back control in all of MMA. If Penn ever got on top of even GSP it wouldn't be good.

Yeah, if Penn can get a good solid takedown that Edgar can't get out of, then Edgar's in trouble. And I do think Penn should be a clear favorite to win this fight. But even at a line of -325 I can't get on Penn for this one. Honestly, I would probably need -250 or better, because I am not OVERLY confident that Penn will dominate this one. It's just like I said before, aside from the hiccup with the Maynard fight, Edgar keeps on surprising and it's hard to bet against that.

I think it's a really compelling matchup (much like the Shogun/Machida rematch Saturday), in that one guy utilized an effective strategy, so now we have to see whether the other guy can make adjustments.

Agreed. I'm looking forward to this one.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

If Penn even gets into a scramble that lasts more than a couple seconds, he will probably submit Edgar. But I doubt BJ can take Edgar down. I expect BJ's game plan to just be to hit him harder this time.

[Svino]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I'm glad to see you guys saying this about the Edgar / Penn grappling situation - I was thinking the same thing. After the first fight, everyone was complaining that Penn "made a bad decision" in not taking Edgar down late in the fight, as if he could have done it easily if he wanted to. Of course, Penn would have a huge bjj advantage on the ground, but his takedowns have never been great and he might have to work pretty hard to get a takedown - work that would translate into eating quite a few more punches that could sway the judges against him in a close round.

[poopoo333]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I see a great amount of value on Randy @-460 right now. I just don't want to tie money up for over 3 months.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I'm glad to see you guys saying this about the Edgar / Penn grappling situation - I was thinking the same thing. After the first fight, everyone was complaining that Penn "made a bad decision" in not taking Edgar down late in the fight, as if he could have done it easily if he wanted to. Of course, Penn would have a huge bjj advantage on the ground, but his takedowns have never been great and he might have to work pretty hard to get a takedown - work that would translate into eating quite a few more punches that could sway the judges against him in a close round.

I was upset at BJ's decision to try to stand up after Edgar willingly took him down a couple of times. BJ has a great guard and great armdrags to the back from guard. You are a world champion grappler and you don't confidence you can sweep or submit a purple belt from guard? If Edgar was crazy enough to willingly go there, I don't understand why BJ was like "no, I think I would rather standup again where I am close to even with you."

[Ludo]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I think it was more a matter of control for BJ. He hadn't decided it was time to go to the ground, and thus he wanted to negate the takedowns by popping back up within 5-7 seconds so the judges wouldn't award Edgar a round based on a takedown.

[Luke]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

no opinion on Maynard-Kenflo at the moment need to watch alot of tape on these two

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

I love the odds but you know the saying.....first time shame on you second time shame on me

I'll take Kenflo over Maynard or Frankie

[Luke]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

From SI.com Josh Gross

Heard conflicting things today re: weight for Couture-Toney. There's talk of a catchweight at 220, but I'm also told it will be heavyweight

[Luke]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Marcus Davis vs. Nate Diaz added