UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

[SPX]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Interesting. If either guy's a significant dog then I'd probably take him.

Davis, for all his faults, is a solid fighter at the end of the day. And Diaz looked good against Markham. In fact, I think he should just stay at WW.

[Ludo]

Re: BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar Rematch at UFC 118

From SI.com Josh Gross

Heard conflicting things today re: weight for Couture-Toney. There's talk of a catchweight at 220, but I'm also told it will be heavyweight

Ya... Cause 220 IS Heavyweight technically.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Where do you guys think BJ holds value?

[SPX]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Where do you guys think BJ holds value?

I'm feeling pretty conservative on this one so I wouldn't take him until -200. But the truth is that he could very well hold value right now. Or the truth could be that Edgar will come out and once again be one step ahead, and in that case BJ never holds value.

It's hard to say, I think.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

I am with SPX, I am not going to bet on BJ as a big favorite against a guy that just beat him 2 months ago. In all reality, Edgar should be the favorite. He has fewer losses, and was never hurt in the last fight. And he showed he could take BJ down.

That said, BJ is gonna win.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

If I knew that the Penn / Edgar fight would be a replay of the last one, I'd probably take Penn out to about -230, since I think he takes that decision 70% of the time.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

If I knew that the Penn / Edgar fight would be a replay of the last one, I'd probably take Penn out to about -230, since I think he takes that decision 70% of the time.

Hmm. . .

That's some crazy mathematical voodoo right there.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

If I knew that the Penn / Edgar fight would be a replay of the last one, I'd probably take Penn out to about -230, since I think he takes that decision 70% of the time.

Hmm. . .

That's some crazy mathematical voodoo right there.

Well if I'd said I'd take it out to -233.3333333, someone would have accused me of being over-specific.

Let me also add that I also think that (compared to the last one) the fight is more likely to swing in favor of Penn. The structure of the first fight was perfect for Edgar - the less close grappling or punishing contact, the better for the hummingbird. Obviously, Edgar had something to do with that, but I'm feeling like any change at all has to go against him. If more of the fight happens on the ground or in a clinch, it should favor Penn. Long story short - I think the odds are decent and I doubt I'll bet on the fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

It is possible that Edgar can use a little bit more top control if BJ decides to work from his back this time. There is a good chance he gets submited, but BJ doesn't really submit guys from guard. So he could do a little GSP/Penn 1 action and take a decision that way too.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Florian or Maynard?

[SPX]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Florian.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Edgar isn't big enough to replicate the GSP method on Penn. Penn also doesn't like to use the guard for submissions so much as for sweeps.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Florian 1.35u to win 1u.
Florian has a big advantage on the outside, but I doubt Maynard will fight Florian like he did Diaz. Maynard will try to use his wrestling to smother Florian, but I think Florian will be ok, use his jitz and elbows (see the Lauzon fight) to defend on the ground. I will admit I didnt research this fight at all, and after I do I may make a larger play or even switch my pick, but i doubt it. While I think this will be close and wouldnt be suprised to see Maynard take a decision, I feel there is Value in Florian.

Couture 10u to win 2u
This is obvious, Toney has a few seconds to land one on Randy before he gets smothered and either TKO'd or choked out.

I will take the prop Edgar by decision again if the odds are decent for a small play. I do believe there is value in Edgar, but I do think Penn will take this one.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Florian was able to stuff Guida's takedowns, I think He'll be alright at least long enough to win a round or two even though Gray's wrestling is better than Guida's. It's going to be hard to avoid Kenny's elbows all night long though for Gray, especially since his face cuts super easy. I would be very careful if I were maynard, Florian has a knack for opening dudes up.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Just going by the recent rematches of previous 5 round close decisions, Penn/Edgar2 probably ends abruptly in the 1st.