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My only bet on this card is 1U on Smith to beat Le. The most likely outcome is probably that Le beats Smith in a lopsided decision, but I think the odds are worth it. I say this because Le will probably not be able to put Smith away, and he will likely still have the same cardio problems that gave him problems in the 3rd round before. Another thing is that I am a big believer in the idea that rematches are likely to lean in favor of the fighter with the more traditional style. Unconventional strikers have a big advantage in surprise that tands to fade as their opponents get used to seeing their stuff. This time, it may not take Smith as long to find his range. I don't think it's any coincidence that the first guy to beat Machida was someone who had fought and trained with him before.
As for Fedor/Werdum, the lines started out kinda crazy, but I think they're about right now, giving Werdum about a 20% chance to win. Werdum is good, but it's a bad matchup, with Fedor's submission defense likely to neutralize Werdum's most potent weapon. Werdum will have a hard time getting Fedor down, Fedor should completely dominate at striking distance, and if the fight is on the ground, Fedor could still do a lot of damage from inside his guard. I actually think Werdum's best zone here may be the standing clinch, especially against the cage where Fedor is less familiar. Werdum is pretty good in the clinch, it's where he beat Gonzaga and also got the better of Silva. Usually guys that clinch with Fedor get thrown down, but Fedor may be reluctant to take the fight to the ground.
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