UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13th

[Luke]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

Nate Marquardt -185
Yushin Okami +155

[SPX]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

I'd bet Nate, but am a little concerned that Okami will be able to do what Sonnen did.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

I think the line is about right. My issue is that even if Nate is able to force a standup fight, I don't know how big his edge is. I think a decision prop is the best play on that fight. The submission is out the window, Okami won't stop nate with GNP... so you are basically betting Nate can't (T)KO Okami. I think I might do a decision prop if the odds are decent (-170 or so)

also, where did you get that line?

[Luke]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

also, where did you get that line?

I saw it at an overseas book . It probably wont be the exact line that comes out but it will give us a close indication

The line is a little higher than I figured it would be

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

I think this one is too hard to call. I wouldn't bet a Decision prop though, Nates hands have been extremely powerful lately. His last 4 wins are all ko/tko.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

Yeah, but Okami has only been stopped one time (in 2003) in 30 fights. And that was by GNP, I doubt nate is going to be taking Yushin down (he very well could knock him down though). Nate is tough to finish too... I don't think Yushin has the tools to finish Nate. Nate by stoppage is more likely for sure.

I put Yushin between 45-50% to win (say 45%). So of Nate's 55% chance to win, even if he has a 50% chance to finish, this correlates to an overall possibility of stoppage at 27% (or 73% that it goes to a decision) in my mind. So the line would be -270. But when I am value betting, I need a lot of value- so I set the line at -170 (63%).

Just how I see it. Obviously, your line may differ. You might think Nate is a lot more than 55% to win. You might think his ability to finish is higher. You might think Yushin can finish Nate (I personally do not think Yushin has any way to finish, I maybe give him a 5% chance).

[SPX]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

I put Yushin between 45-50% to win (say 45%).

I think that whichever guy wins is the guy who will win the vast majority of the time.

IF Nate can deal with Okami's wrestling, then he wins 70% to 80% of the time. Because that's about the only way Okami has to win. And if Nate can handle it, then he can do it over and over and over.

But if not, and Okami can control him for a decision, then again, he'll be able to do it over and over.

I'm leaning toward Nate wins 70%+. But I do not want to get Marquardt'd again.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

^ I understand that... that is basically why I put it at 50%. I don't know if Nate can stop the takedown. So it is a coin flip to me. BUt he has more outs, so I favor him a little.

I also think that Yushin can win by clinching and using him reach, like he did with Swick and Franklin. I think Nate's striking is somewhat overrated, especially when he has to worry about the takedown. In fights where he was able to stop the takedown, his striking was not very effective (Dean Lister, Thales Leites). His crazy good finishes were against non-wrestlers (with the exception of Maia). Also, Palhares was able to take him down wasn't he? That does not bode well, Okami's takedowns are at least on par with Palhares, IMO.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

I think Okami can strike with Nate. Let's not pretend he didn't get dropped by Thales Leites.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

I think Okami can strike with Nate. Let's not pretend he didn't get dropped by Thales Leites.

I think it will be competitive standing as well. Maybe, Okami is the play. I am going to have to wait on the line... I might end up on Okami before it is all said and done.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

Leites threw a good punch and it hit Nate. You know as well as I do that it's a fallacious argument to rate Nate's striking because he got hit one time by one guy 2 1/2 years ago.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

Leites through a good punch and it hit Nate. You know as well as I do that it's a fallacious argument to rate Nate's striking because he got hit one time by one guy 2 1/2 years ago.

yeah bu most of the hype around Nate's striking is based on 1 video game combo he threw on Kampman. He 1-punched Maia too I guess. But outide of that, his striking has never looked dominant to me... just sort of average... I always thought of him as a grappler until the Kampman fight.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

I thought the video game combo was against Gouveia. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

Maybe he had two of them... I forgot about the Gouveia fight. I think you are right.

EDIT: looked it up, yeah it was Gouveia. I guess he had 2 impressive striking displays because he beat Kampmann up too.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 122 Germany to air for free on Spike on November 13

Yeah he one punched Maia, I know how you feel about that one too. It's either amazing or just a fortunate shot. Palhares was kind of distracted now that I think about it, he was trying to talk to the ref. He knocked out Gouv but he hasn't been doing well. Nates striking has improved a lot though, it has to have. He has been knocking people out left and right.

I see what your talking about though with Yushin, I don't see him finishing this fight. I could see Nate catching Yushin with a punch though or maybe a guillotine during a shot. He almost subbed Chael with a guillotine..though Chael gets subbed left right and center.

If nate catches Yushin, Yushin has the takedown out though. I dont know here. Maybe Yushin Okami via decision is the bet to make.

I think I will be doing a lot more prop bets now, I might as well. I can't see Yushin winning this fight any other way, so I might as well get the better odds.