YTD results

[MMA_scientist]

Not included is my shame dump on lil Nog (which actually netted me 7u)... but it was so reckless and out of character, that I cannot claim it in good conscience. I know that there are few other plays that I am forgetting too.

Total WINS = +98.98
Parlay project +5.29
Total Losses = -70.4

Overall net gain = 33.87u

Dogs: 6-9 +8.66
Faves: 55-13 +27.06

Bellator: -2.44 ( I have been killing these Bellators but I took 2 bad losses, Hess and Curran)
SF: +11.88

I use a 50u bankroll, so without compounding, a 71% return. But it is actually a lot more than that, because with win, the unit size increases... but I have not kept track concisely.

wins
1.25u Warren @ -125 = +1u
Hendricks/Boetch = +2.5u
1u Werdum @ +455 = +4.55
1u Askren @ +140 = +1.4
5u Roberts @ -180= +2.7
3u Del Rosario @ -245 = +1.22
3u Ellenberger @ -170 = +1.76
1u Stann @ 1.37 = +1.37
1u Hughes @ 1.4 = +1.40
1.15u Guida @ -115 = +1.0
3u Jorgenson @ -215 = +1.39
2u Paixao @ -180 = +1.1
5u Noons @ -255 = +1.96
2.8u Galvao @ -280 = + 1 (16.3u)
6u on Kongo to beat Buentello @ -340 +1.76
3u on Pierce @ -355 +.84
3u on Pelligrino to beat Miranda@ -167 +1.79
5u on Palhares to beat Drzwal @ -240 +2.08
5u on Galvao to beat Stewart @-315 +1.58
5u on Florian to beat Gomi @-290 +1.72
6u on Nelson to beat Struve @ -290 +2.06
.5 on Volkmann @ +181 +.90
2u on Dos Anjos to beat Etim @ +140 +2.8u
5u on Hughes to beat Renzo @ -455 +1.09
3u on Karahkayan to beat Quach @ -195 +1.53
5u on Reis to beat Lierley @ -315 +1.58
3u on Askren to beat Thomas @ -400 +.75
4u on Melendez to beat Aoki @ -170 + 2.35
6u on Freire to beat Romero @ -280 +2.14
5u on Hendricks to beat @ -350 +1.42
1u on Salter to beat MacDonald @+160 +1.6
3u on Koscheck to beat Daley @ -271 + 1.1
3u on Leites to beat Taylor @ -290 +1.03
5u on Sylvia to beat Pudz @ -310 +1.61
5u on Wiuff to beat @ -355 +1.4
6u on Hornbuckle to beat Carl @ -435 +1.37
6u on Soto to beat Saraiva @ -415 +1.44
5u on Efrain to beat Lauzon @ -360 +1.38 (+37.31u)
Danzig def Buchholz 5u @ -280 = + 1.78
A. Miller def Lawlor 5u @ -250 = + 2.00
Dos Anjos def Bradley 5u @ -305 = + 1.63
C. Miller def Lauzon 5u @ -155 = + 3.22
Evans def Silva 5u @ -185 = + 2.7
J. Miller def Ludwig 5u @ -425 = + 1.17
Hieron def Riggs 3u @ -294 = + 1.02
Nelson def Schaub 5u @ -197 = + 2.53
Howard def Hallman 5u @ -250 = + 2.00
Palhares def Linhares 7u @ -340 = + 2.05
Fitch def Pierce 5u @ -345 = + 1.44
Hendricks def Funch 5u @ -365 = + 1.44
Florian def Guida 5u @ -194 = + 2.57
Jacare def Linland 5u @ -274 = + 1.82
Bisping def Kang 3u @ ev = + 3.00
Werdum def Silva 5u @ -150 = + 3.33
Koscheck def Johnson 5u @ +105 = + 5.00 (38.62)



Losses

-.45u Salter
-1.4 Osipczac
-5u Thiago
-.5 Branch
-.71 Carwin
-.5 O Brien
-1 Munoz
-2u on Vera to beat jones @ +210
-.5u on Marshall to beat Vlad @ +160
-4u on Veach @ -170
-5u on Curran @ -400
-5u on Hendo @ -413
-2u On Vainer @ +110
-4u on Hague to beat Beltran @ -190
-5u on Diego to beat Hathaway @ -200
-1.5 on Reis to bet Freire @ -150
-.25 on Thomas to beat Askren @ +400
-.5u on Maia to beat Silva @ +500
-5u on Hess to beat Schlemenko @ -400
-5u on Hansen to beat takaya @ -270
Beltran def Gracie -5u
Sonnen def Marquart -6u
Minowa def Sokoudjou -5u
Grove def Rosholt -5u


Parlay
5u on Cullem @ -800 = +.62u
5.62u on Phil Davis @ -7.15 = +.78u
6.4u on Cormier @ -1500 = +.42u
6.82u on Hornbuckle @ -355 = +1.92u
8.78u on Couture @ -580 = +1.51

[edman5555]

Re: YTD results

That hornbuckle blackburn fight was close.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: YTD results

Your a beast my brotha!

I fuckin blow this year. I bow at your feet.

Seriously, nice job man. Your a big help around here.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: YTD results

That hornbuckle blackburn fight was close.

Yeah, it was a bad play. I would like to look at all the "wrong" plays I made and see how I would have done if they wen't teh other way (I am pretty sure I would have lost overall)/

[MMA_scientist]

Re: YTD results

Just noticed this is not YTD either, it actually has 12/2009 in there too.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: YTD results

How many years you been betting MMA?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: YTD results

How many years you been betting MMA?

about 3 years

[Mr. IWS]

Re: YTD results

Is this the norm for you in terms of winning? Im ready to hop on board. LOL

[SPX]

Re: YTD results

Good job, Scientist. Interesting stuff there.

You're clearly kicking my ass on Strikeforce. I'm like -7u on that shit.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: YTD results

Is this the norm for you in terms of winning? Im ready to hop on board. LOL

This is about the norm. My first year, I was really aggressive and wild, kind of like Poopoo. As luck would have it, it worked out and I had like a 200% return. But since then, it is about 2u-3u per month on average. I had a dry spell for like 3 months this year from February to June... which is when I shamefully did the Nog dump. I also had to cash out half my bankroll and use the money in that same time period for life stuff... so I got frustrated with the delay of my dream of doing nothing but watching fights and training, and that contributed to the shame dump.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: YTD results

Good job, Scientist. Interesting stuff there.

You're clearly kicking my ass on Strikeforce. I'm like -7u on that shit.

Yeah I didn't realize I was doing so well on SF... I think it is because SF goes after these bjj guys... They have Galvao, Roger Gracie, Jacare, Werdum... I rode 2 big bets on Galvao (both of which were really close and I was on the wrong side on both). But really the number is inflated because of the Werdum win.

I thought Bellator was my money train, but those 2 5u losses before I instituted my lower line cap killed me.

and you better say something, I did this for you (though all i had to do was cut and paste it).

[MMA_scientist]

Re: YTD results

Just looking at the wins, I can see at least 6 fights where I was clearly on the wrong side and just lucked out:

Nog/Brilz
Galvao/Stewart (6.58u swing)
Galvao/Patino (3.8u swing)
Paixao/Caraway (3.8u swing)
Howard/Hallman (7u swing)
A. Simpson/Lawlor (7u swing)

add these up (excluding Nog) and I would be down for the year. Of course, I got "unlucky" on a lot of my losses too... both with guys that lost even though they had value, and guys that fluked out. But it is easy to see how "negative variance" can have a big impact over a short period of time.

[Svino]

Re: YTD results

Woo! Good job!

That hornbuckle blackburn fight was close.

Yeah, it was a bad play. I would like to look at all the "wrong" plays I made and see how I would have done if they wen't teh other way (I am pretty sure I would have lost overall)/

True, but then to be fair to yourself, you've also gotta think about the times you made the "right" call and got burned.

[Edit: oops, looks like you've got that covered. I had the same two bets on Galvao. I think I'm done betting on him for a while.]

[triathlete]

Re: YTD results

Hello everyone. Sorry for the absence... not that I contributed a whole lot in the first place.

I was even for the year up to June. Haven't bet jack shit lately due to travel and school.

Good to be back, though. Thanks to Sean Patrick Xavier for reminding me I still watch and bet on MMA :)

[Luke]

Re: YTD results

Hello everyone. Sorry for the absence... not that I contributed a whole lot in the first place.

I was even for the year up to June. Haven't bet jack shit lately due to travel and school.

Good to be back, though. Thanks to Sean Patrick Xavier for reminding me I still watch and bet on MMA :)

Welcome back man .We've all wondered where you have been