Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

[Luke]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

I think risking your whole parlay bankroll everytime is going to be a disaster . I mean say you win 15 in a row and lose the 16th you still lose everything .

Thats why I bet 2-3 fighter parlays to win 1 unit per parlay . Most are around -150

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

I am still experimenting with my parlay project, but if I lose my bankroll I have set aside for that, that's it.

Haven't you done that twice already? Once on Soko and again on Hathaway?

Two separate things. I lost the never ending parlay bankroll on Soko. It died there. But then I created a 10u bankroll for parlays (40u for regular plays) as part of the recovery from trauma plan. I lost 5u of that on Hathaway and a bunch of boxers, but I have won several other parlays, and the project bankroll is up well over 10u now. So it lives on. It gets taken down after every 5u and multiplies. I can't remember all of them, but Faber/Davis and the props ones were part of it. I also had several smaller test runs that I never posted (I actually have BJ/Munoz/Davis/Maia rounding out Saturday too, just for like 20 bucks though testing the strategy).

See it here for reference: viewtopic.php?f=47&t=8388&start=120

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

I think risking your whole parlay bankroll everytime is going to be a disaster . I mean say you win 15 in a row and lose the 16th you still lose everything .

Thats why I bet 2-3 fighter parlays to win 1 unit per parlay . Most are around -150

yeah, I stopped doing it that way, I lost all of it on Sokodjou (even though that fight was not something I would have even considered for the parlay without the tilt). I may revive the never ending parlay at some point when I am doing better... but I got my ass kicked doing some dumb stuff and gave away like 40u, so I am still re-building from the tilt fueled binge I went on. I am trying to build the parlay bankroll into a full bankroll to compete with my regualr bankroll. I am doing a lot of 2-3 fight parlays and a lot of magic prop parlays.

[Luke]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

. I am doing a lot of 2-3 fight parlays and a lot of magic prop parlays.

good idea imo

[edman5555]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

My new betting strategy is/should be going heavy on a couple of fights I think are "locks". Like Jon Jones over Ryan Bader and Kenny Florian over Evan Dunham.

I'm with you on Jones, but I think going heavy on Florian could come back to fuck you. My view on that fight is that the right play is whoever comes in as a dog.

I can place 10 little bets on diff fights or 2 bigger bets on 2 different fights..I see placing the smaller number of bets as the best idea because I am putting everything in the bets that I feel most confident in.

I hear you, but this strategy just backfired on me with Machida over Rampage.

Well I am trying to stay clear of betting the dog in close fights unless it is for a small amount of money. Why risk anything significant on a fighter unless you think he is going to win? My reasoning for betting Kenny is that he is a much better standup fighter than Dunham, I think he will pick him apart actually. Dunham's wrestling isn't really that special from what I have seen, I wouldn't be suprised to see Kenny take him down.I am just hoping for a good line. I think Kenny will be favored but I am not sure which way the line will move.

Do you guys mind taking a little poll?

Do you think Dunham wins or Kenny? If you had to pick.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

^^ Florian. But it is extremely close IMO

[SPX]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

I'm actually going with the upset. Dunham. But I agree with Scientist that it's close and could go either way.

[Luke]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

I'm taking fightmetric's stance on all close fights : It will be a draw

[SPX]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

I'm taking fightmetric's stance on all close fights : It will be a draw

Honestly, we should probably have more draws.

[poopoo333]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

Every one of Kongo's fight is worth a bet on the draw prop. It's -750 that he does something illegal so it just depends on the ref.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

I would go Florian in that one.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

Any thoughts on Brookins vs. Johnson in the finals? I thought Nam won, but damn Koscheck is an ass. Koscheck calling guys out for being boring wrestlers now? Did he not see his fight with Daley?

[poopoo333]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

Maia via sub +180..hmm

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

Magic Parlay:

Not Pokrajac by sub/Not Grove ITD/Not Story by sub
4 to win 1

[poopoo333]

Re: Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

What makes you think that Branch will win? What if Attonito puts him on his back every round? He did it to Rafael Natal, a BJJ BB with 7 sub wins.

Umm, I just got done watching all of Attonito and Branch's recent fights. Attonito didn't get one takedown on Natal. Natal went for a very halfassed TD and ended up on his back in the 3rd round, and Attonito followed him down. Attonito was on top in the first round as well, but it wasn't from a TD, it was from a knockdown.