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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
That was pretty much his downfall.........
Originally posted by Luke
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
Great job man!Originally posted by doublearmbarComment
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
haha wow. 0-8. Looks like he double arm barred himself.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
Pretty funnyTriple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shitComment
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
Well I think it's pretty straightforward if you think of his picks like a coin flip (which is essentially what his picks are).Originally posted by IWS ZakDam, I forgot about this thread. We need Svino in here to calculate the odds of going 0-8.
Two outcomes, so 8 flips is 2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2 = 512
1/512
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shitComment
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
^^^^ Too many flips Zy .It should be 1/256 if its a coin flip 8 times
To find out actual odds of him losing all 8 couldnt you just find the parlay odds of the fights he picked?
The closing odds of the fights he picked were:
+180
+185
-170
+105
+240
+162
+195
+131
Parlayed together is 1576 to 1 odds2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
Yeah, 256 you're right, I went 2^9 accidentally.
And if you're going to use the betting odds, wouldn't you need the inverse of the parlay odds?
It's 1576 to 1 for all of those to WIN, but it would be vastly lower for all of them to LOSE.Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shitComment
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
^^^ lol I have no idea I was just throwing something out there2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
Yeah, you'd take the inverse (or the odds for the opponents), and then subtract about 2.5% for each fight to take into account the house's edge.Originally posted by zY|
The funny thing is, I really believe Sideloaded got exactly what he was aiming for here. I mean, obvious troll was obvious. He was looking for an excuse to leave. I think he was trying to get every pick wrong with this challenge, and he nailed it.
I wasn't very careful, but I calculated his odds of hitting that to be about 0.9%, or 1 in 110.Comment
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
LOL. A couple other things though.Originally posted by Svino
Can we really trust the betting lines as a true indicator of the actual odds of winning? Along with them straight up not being objective, they are highly influenced by perception and betting action. On top of that, which lines are we using? Every book has different lines.
I think the troll angle is interesting. So you're suggesting that by purposely going 0-8, he actually went 8-8? If so, that's pretty impressive. Not all of those were bad picks.Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shitComment
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Re: doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H
No, but all we're ever going to be able to do is make a rough guess. Just using one house's lines is a decent first approximation.Originally posted by zY|
Picking every underdog (plus one favorite that there were some decent reasons to think was overvalued) doesn't sound like someone who was trying to win. To me, it looked like a backup exit plan after, "say more and more outrageous and insulting things until I get banned" was surprisingly not doing the job. I think he was just getting tired of trolling the board.I think the troll angle is interesting. So you're suggesting that by purposely going 0-8, he actually went 8-8?Comment
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oh haiComment
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PP's bored.I heart cockComment
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my back is fuckin killing meLast edited by MMA_scientist; 04-26-2012, 10:47 AM.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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