Cage Warriors 38 10/1

[SPX]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

It is nothing you can't do manually... but I am not around most of the time on fight nights, so it is hard for me to manage my bets.

I have noticed that you've been conspicously absent lately. You haven't been around for Bellator for a few weeks now and there have been some other events you've missed, too. What's up with that?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

It sounds lame, but I have actually been working alot. I went on vacation, then had to catch up when I got back. I just haven't had time to research like I want to. I do all my gambling from work... so when I get home, I usually spend time with my kids and wife...

I have also been training a lot more. I have a comp coming up and I am working on getting in shape. My interest has been renewed and I have been posting over in the grappling technique forum a lot.

Plus I had to regroup after taking a very hard nose dive on that Shark Fights card. I lost 20 some odd units, half of my take for the year. It was really really stupid of me. I know better, but I got caught up. It is my old achilles heel... I need to just pay someone to restrain me. It fucking wrecked my year. I had had more setbacks this year than ever- having to cash out (I think I mentioned) and then the February losing streak, then the Shrk Fights debacle. I am actually amazed at the return I am having despite my shitty plays. I have switched up my betting strategy a few times to try to break out of my funk... but what seems to work for me time and time again, is just betting on grappling matches with very few variables. That is my magic formula. It works for me consistently, regardless of the line. I just need to get my tilt-propensity under control and stop making bets based on my overall mma knowledge (because honestly, I don't think I am very good at judging fighting ability outside of grappling centric fights).

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I haven't had any interest in the Bellator cards lately. I am really excited about the Galvao/Woodley fight though on SF next week, and I am probably more excited to see Askren/Good than Lesnar/Carwin.

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

and I am probably more excited to see Askren/Good than Lesnar/Carwin.

Yeah, I am not a fan of reruns either.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

^ you know what I meant- Lesnar/Cain

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

^ you know what I meant- Lesnar/Cain

Oh, I thought you might have been looking forward to the UFC 116 rerun on Spike for "Brocktober"





...just kidding, I know what you meant.

[SPX]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

Scientist,

Indeed.

Well work . . . wife . . . kids . . . getting out and actually training in martial arts instead of just talking about it and watching it. . . I can see the logic there. Still, I've found myself wondering where the fuck you're at during events as the conversation around here has seemed oddly incomplete.

As for your run of bad luck, that seems to have afflicted most of us. I know that myself, Luke, Zak, PP, and Svino are all crying a little bit right now. Not sure about Ludo or the other guys. I seem to be stuck in a pattern of BIG LOSS-little win-BIG LOSS-little win. To make matters worse, a lot of the fights that I ALMOST bet would've paid out and often the ones I actually choose to bet end up losing.

I've been thinking a lot about how to get back on the winning track, now that my high of +22u for the year has dropped down into the single digits. One thing is a must: more research. I've been far too lazy to actually do proper research on a lot of my bets lately. Yesterday I actually did sit down and invest a couple of hours into Hominick/Garcia and I actually won. So that's encouraging. In other cases it was just bad decisions based on little research or what was in my opinion bad judging.

I've also considered adjusting my strategy and actually dropping larger bets on fights that I am VERY sure of. I almost went 5u on Hominick . . . should have. I almost went 10u on Torres . . . should have. Thankfully, I found my balls in time to go 10u on Aldo, which saved my night, but I'll be the first to say that it could've backfired (but I was very sure of the outcome of that fight, too).

I dunno at this point. I would like to keep the dream alive of finishing this year at +25u or better. At the same time, with the way things have been going, there's another part of me that just wants to finish in the positives at all.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

yeah, I have been in sort of a holding pattern... break even, even, small loss, small win. I haven't really had a lot of movement one way or the other, besides the Shark fights. But that was pure chasing, no research at all.

I only seem to take bad losses when I get out of my own zone... bets on things I shouldn't be betting, but I can't resist. You can usually tell, because I just pop in and say 4u on X, with no explanation... I know how to win, but I lack the discipline and patience sometimes.

I am hoping that these 2 fight parlays will satisfy the junkie in me, while still keeping my bankroll stable.

As for your return- anything positive after the number of bets you have made is actually quite good. You will figure out a money mangement system that works for you, and you will be off to the races.

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around


Plays:
3.7u on Grecicho @-185
1.3u on Grecicho @-215
1.4u on Hecht @-140

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around

people insist on calling it luck...

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around

people insist on calling it luck...

I call Dunham losing the decision bad luck. That fucked me

[SPX]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around

That's what I said at the beginning of September! But I do appreciate your spirit. And I also feel better, from a betting perspective, about October's fights than I did about September's.

I'm calling it now. . .

OCTOBER: THE MONTH WE ALL MAKE OUR COMEBACK!!!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I know that myself, Luke, Zak, PP, and Svino are all crying a little bit right now.

Im really only losing in Mma, everything else, Im doing pretty well. I think thats why I havent jumped off a cliff with all these MMA losses.

[SPX]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I call Dunham losing the decision bad luck. That fucked me

Yeah, I think there's definitely a luck factor in two ways: 1. the judges, and 2. fighters getting "lucky" KOs/subs.

[SPX]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

Im really only losing in Mma, everything else, Im doing pretty well. I think thats why I havent jumped off a cliff with all these MMA losses.

Yeah, I was just referring to MMA bets.