Slump buster

[MMA_scientist]

I can't win lately. I don't know if it is the public getting better, me getting worse, books getting sharper, or fighters getting better. Or maybe I am just looking for bets now, whereas I used to bet far fewer fights.

I tend to think that fighters are just getting better. The sport really only took off about 5 years ago, so those guys would just now be getting really good- so maybe the infusion of true athletes into what was formerly extremely niche, is changing the game. Takedown defense is getting better, non-wrestlers can suddenly wrestle, and some of the best grapplers are strict mma fighters. It is bizarro world out there.

I am going to change the way I bet for the remainder of 2010, and maybe beyond. Instead of trying to find value in fights that are usually way more competitive than I think they are going to be, I am going to start doing 2-3 fight parlays.

I am taking my 50u bankroll and dividing it into eight 5u stakes. Each 5u stake is going to be a parlay project. The goal is to double up the 5u, then take it down and start over. Hopefully, I can double up each stake more often than busting out. There is no line cap on the favorites for the parlays. I don't care if they are -1500, if they are GOING to win, they are in. The other 10u is for underdogs or slight favorites, with a max bet to win 1u.

Bam. That's how I do it now.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

The Scientist has been spending time in his laboratory again, I see. . .

I really distrust parlays considering my abysmal luck, but good luck on this. I'm curious to see how it works out for you.

I've also been considering playing around a bit with different betting systems. Specifically, I've considered coming up with some sort of Martingale system that might be workable. But we all know the risks of the Martingale . . . a bad streak can put you out of business pretty quickly (and I've hit some pretty bad streaks).

If not that, then maybe something else. I could maybe deal with the possibility of catastrophic failure if the odds of that failure were very small.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

Also. . .

Trace buster-buster-buster-buster. . .

If anyone here gets that then I'll give you some sort of credit.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

Yeah, a martingale, or any variant of it, usually ends abruptly and tragically. I am familiar with any and all negative progression system, and I can tell you that the inevitable losing streak always always happens.

Still, in the short term, it can build your bankroll quickly. So i understand the appeal. It is hard to do with sports betting though, because much of the time, you are betting on 2:1 or 3:1 favorites... so it can get out of control quickly. If you stick to even fights or dogs, it would be more manageable, but then your losing streak is more likely to come too...

[Luke]

Re: Slump buster

I dont like the idea

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Well I'm a little skeptical of this, I think you should try to keep it to 2 fight parlays..But please keep me posted on your picks. I'm interested.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

^ picks are going to be the same, and I am keeping 20% of the bankroll to play the usual way. But I am taking the cap off for the parlays.

My thinking is that i will have to be more careful with my bets with the parlays. When I am just value betting, I end up betting every damn thing. This way, 1 loss will bust my parlay, so I will have to be tighter.

I am still going to do my thing the usual way too though... I am not going to pass up an opportunity for teh sake of my system.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

I dont like the idea

what don't you liek about it? is it just too much risk?

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

I think you might be betting to many fights, and maybe betting to much on them. I have been in a slump as of late also, but have been betting less money on these fights as I see some big fights down the road that I have high confidence in.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

I think you might be betting to many fights, and maybe betting to much on them. I have been in a slump as of late also, but have been betting less money on these fights as I see some big fights down the road that I have high confidence in.

I am definitely betting too many fights. I used to bet only UFC and Strikeforce, totally shied away from WEC and small shows. Incidentally, I have been doing fine with the UFC and SF. WEC, Shark, and Cage Warriors is where I have taken almost all my losses.

When I stick to my formula, I win. My problem is that I am turning into an action junkie... So I am hoping I can reel it in a little with this method.

We'll see.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

The same shit happened to me. This is not easy.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

^^ Picking fights is only half of the battle. Money management is more important IMO than capping skill. I know I have a tendency to get wild, so keeping the monster under control is always my struggle.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

I get anxious waiting for a good bet or when I win I start to think I know everything and I bet a lot and lose. I have too many problems. I need to be more patient. I won a lot on ufc 117 then basically lost it all. I still have money in my accounts but I need to make a comeback bigtime.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

Yeah, I do the same thing. I get cocky after a win streak and think I have it all down... then I roll the dice. Lesson I need to learn: watching 3 minutes of video is not going to give me the info I need.

So I am hoping that these parlays are going to make me think long and hard about my bets. That is how I used to be with all my bets, but you get used to betting and build up an immunity... the risk does not scare you enough to do your homework. So I am hoping I can scare myself into doing my homework again.

Also, the sucess of my never ending locks parlay emboldened me. I whipped up 5 units in no time, betting on huge favorites.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

I'm looking at bets now and I know I should just stick with the ones that stand out to me. As of now, Nick Diaz is semi-tempting. Ben Askren is very good even though I already missed the damn line..probably Carlos Condit..Maybe Neil Grove. I'm on the fence about Akiyama Bisping..Either Bisping by Decision or Akiyama prob by Decision..Maybe go the distance heh.