UFC 126 Feb 5

[MMA_scientist]

^^ Yeah, I think he is a healthy favorite. But with Kelly having fought in the UFC a bunch of times, Cerrone's first time in the UFC, and Cerrone's penchant for fighting to the level of his competition, I just think that Kelly has a chance. The one thing Kelly has shown is solid submission defense. He has been in there with some solid grapplers and has only been subbed once. I would not be surprised to see Cerrone catch him in his triangle though. Cerrone should win though, no doubt.

[edman5555]

I certainly hope so. I went Kamikaze on him.

[edman5555]

I am hoping Cerrone isn't on his back at all in this fight. If he doesn't sub him then he just risks losing the round. I can't wait to see them weigh in. Did they face off yet? I know the main card guys did but I did not see the prelims.

[Luke]

I think Cerrone's line is way too high

[SPX]

I expect Cerrone will win, but Kelly doesn't suck. Kelly doesn't have any wins over any really GREAT guys, but Veach and O'Brien weren't slouches and everyone he's lost to has proven to be pretty decent.

One thing I will say is: "UFC level competition." I know, inb4LukeandzYcallmeaUFCnuthugger but there really is something to the term. It's the same reason why guys who do great in Japan come to the UFC and lose and why guys who would have no chance at the title in the UFC are top contenders in Strikeforce. It's also why Antonio McKee reigned as the untouchable champ for years in MFC only to come in and lose to a fighter like Jacob Volkmann in his first fight in the UFC.

The general assumption has always been that the top WEC guys will probably settle in as mid-level guys in the UFC, and the lower-tier WEC guys will end up losing and getting cut. All this remains to be seen, but this fight should be pretty interesting from that perspective. Will Cerrone come in and dominate Kelly? Will he win, but by the skin or his teeth? Or will he actually lose this fight?

Again, I do think Cerrone will win, and I hope that he does win. But the fight should be pretty instructive on a lot of different levels.

[MMA_scientist]

I certainly hope so. I went Kamikaze on him.

tell us what your bets are. You said you did something new as well. Did you go full dump on Cerrone?

[edman5555]

No but I put a lot on him. I also did 2.25u in parlays divided 9 ways all incorporating my picks for the fights I feel semi confident in. Cerrone is in all of them. They also have diff combos of ellenberger, taylor, j jones, forrest, and forrest by decision.

[Johnny Unreliable]

Any reason almost no one is on ellenberger? Rocha is just a straight BJJ guy. Ellenberger has much better wrestling and way better stand up. I don't think Rocha has even been out of the second round in any of his fights. He's fought a bunch of nobodies, granted he's subbed them all pretty quickly but I really feel this is a big step up in competition for him and it will show. Anyways I'm on ellenberger for 5u's. I think it's one of the safest bets on the card by far.

[Svino]

I'm tempted to bet Ellenberger, but I've become more wary about betting even a solid wrestler against a talented Brazilian prospect that I haven't seen too much of. The last time I tried it, I bet Gerald Harris over Falcao. The time before that, it was Escudero over Oliveira.

[Ludo]

Pretty intense staredown between Anderson and Vitor.

[MMA_scientist]

Any reason almost no one is on ellenberger? Rocha is just a straight BJJ guy. Ellenberger has much better wrestling and way better stand up. I don't think Rocha has even been out of the second round in any of his fights. He's fought a bunch of nobodies, granted he's subbed them all pretty quickly but I really feel this is a big step up in competition for him and it will show. Anyways I'm on ellenberger for 5u's. I think it's one of the safest bets on the card by far.

I am just afraid the Rocha is a submission machine. He has never been out of rd 2. He looked pretty slick against McCray. But really, I just have not seen enough of Rocha. But the main reason I am not betting him is because he hit that kneebar on McCray...

leglocks = wrestler kryptonite

[poopoo333]

I just included him in my parlay. I think he will win, but I won't be too surprised if he loses. What I saw from McCray/Rocha was that Rocha was taken down and controlled on the ground well by McCray and I think Ellenberger has the tools to do the same thing. But Rocha ended up getting that kneebar so it comes down to the sub defense of Ellenberger if he decides to bring it to the ground. I could also see Ellenberger turning this into a striking match and just avoid any Rocha TDs.

I also will not bet against a wrestler.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ but you bet against Banuelos. He's a wrestler.

[poopoo333]

^^ but you bet against Banuelos. He's a wrestler.

I know. It took me awhile to actually to do that as well. I guess I should have said something like "I will not bet against a wrestler 9 times out of 10"

[MMA_scientist]

A while back I did a breakdown of all guys from a "wrestling base" in the UFC... they don't win at any higher rate than any other style of fighter. But once you get into the really high level wrestlers, they start winning more. But the same thing is true for pretty much every other discipline. It really does just depend on the matchup.

Even if you look at the top 10, there really are no more wrestlers than other arts. There are actually more strikers than wrestlers in the top 10 of every weight class than there are wrestlers. Then if you go even further, most of the guys in the top 10 that we consider "wrestlers" are not that accomplished in actual wrestling. Sherk is a perfect example. He barely wrestled beyond HS, but he makes it work in MMA. Same with GSP, he does not come from a wrestling base, but he is obviously a great wrestler in MMA. Benevidez wrestled like half a season in college or something. Really most of the wrestlers that are successful in MMA are not great wrestlers. Even Faber who did wrestle in college was somewhat below average as an actual wrestler. I really think it is unfair to categorize these guys as "wrestlers." They some from a wrestling base, but it is something other than their wrestling that is making them good fighters.

It seems like the heavier you get, the more actual wrestling pedigree you need to be successful. But then again Rashad was a .500 D1 wrestler, he was no world beater, I wouldn't even describe him as "good" in terms of D1 wrestlers.

It funny because if you look at the rankings, the only consistent advantage anyone would have would be to be American. There are 38 Americans of the 70 listed in the top 10.


1. Dominick Cruz (17-1)
2. Joseph Benavidez (13-2) ** wrestler
3. Brian Bowles (8-1)
4. Urijah Faber (24-4) ** wrestler
5. Scott Jorgensen (11-4) ** wrestler
6. Miguel Torres (38-3)
7. Takeya Mizugaki (13-5-2)
8. Brad Pickett (20-5)
9. Rani Yahya (15-6)
10. Masakatsu Ueda (11-1-2)





1. Jose Aldo (18-1)
2. Hatsu Hioki (23-4-2)
3. Manny Gamburyan (11-5)
4. Michihiro Omigawa (12-8-1)
5. Marlon Sandro (17-2)
6. Diego Nunes (16-1)
7. Mike Thomas Brown (24-7) ** wrestler
8. Joe Warren (6-1)** wrestler
9. Dustin Poirier (9-1)
10. Josh Grispi (14-2)

1. Frankie Edgar (13-1-1) ** wrestler
2. Gilbert Melendez (18-2)
3. Gray Maynard (10-0-1, 1 NC) **wrestler
4. B.J. Penn (16-7-1)
5. Shinya Aoki (26-5, 1 NC)
6. Eddie Alvarez (21-2)
7. Kenny Florian (14-5)
8. Tatsuya Kawajiri (27-6-2)** wrestler
9. Sean Sherk (36-4-1) ** wrestler
10. Evan Dunham (11-1)

1. Georges St. Pierre (21-2)
2. Jon Fitch (23-3, 1 NC) ** wrestler
3. Thiago Alves (18-7)
4. Jake Shields (26-4-1) ** wrestler
5. Josh Koscheck (15-5) ** wrestler
7. Carlos Condit (26-5)
8. Dan Hardy (23-8, 1 NC)
9. Nick Diaz (23-7, 1 ND)
10. Paul Daley (26-9-2)

1. Anderson Silva (27-4)
2. Chael Sonnen (25-11-1) ** wrestler
3. Yushin Okami (26-5)
4. Nate Marquardt (30-10-2)
5. Demian Maia (14-2)
6. Vitor Belfort (19-8)
7. Dan Henderson (26-8) ** wrestler
8. Jorge Santiago (23-8)
9. Ronaldo Souza (13-2, 1 NC)
10. Michael Bisping (20-3)

1. Mauricio Rua (19-4)
2. Rashad Evans (15-1-1) ** wrestler
3. Quinton Jackson (31-8)
4. Lyoto Machida (16-2)
5. Forrest Griffin (17-6)
6. Ryan Bader (12-0) ** wrestler
7. Jon Jones (11-1) ** wrestler
8. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-4)
9. Rafael Cavalcante (10-2)
10. Muhammed Lawal (7-1) ** wrestler

1. Cain Velasquez (9-0) ** wrestler
2. Brock Lesnar (5-2) ** wrestler
3. Fabricio Werdum (14-4-1)
4. Fedor Emelianenko (31-2, 1 NC)
5. Junior dos Santos (12-1)
6. Shane Carwin (12-1) ** wrestler
7. Frank Mir (14-5)
8. Alistair Overeem (34-11, 1 NC)
9. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-6-1, 1 NC)
10. Antonio Silva (15-2)



end overkill wrestling rant.