UFC 126 Feb 5

[Thewisemann]

The fan in me desperately wants Vitor to win, but the bettor in me is looking forward to dumping my bankroll on GSP against Silva.

(Worst case scenario: Anderson looks like crap against Vitor, but wins anyway.)

+1

[Thewisemann]

Tempted to go Kamikaze on Jones. . .

do it

[Svino]

If a fighter fails to make weight, I count that against them, because it's clearly a case of something going wrong with their program. But if I simply that a guy has cut a lot of weight (successfully), I don't know how to use that. It could be bad because of the toll the cut takes on their body, but it could also be good because they'll have some extra size.

[zY|]

I bet Silva by decision.

[poopoo333]

I bet Silva by decision.

I like it

[SPX]

Inb4spx

She's pretty cute.

[Svino]

Some late thoughts on Silva vs. Belfort:

I don't think Belfort's chances are as good as a lot of people think. It's strange, before the Franklin win, I always had to defend him because he was underrated. Now, I think it might be the opposite. Each guy will be the best striker the other has faced, but unlike Belfort, (and outside his first fight) I've never seen Silva come close to being on the losing end of a striking match.

These are two of the most over-psychoanalyzed guys in MMA, and I think it's usually because people are looking for complicated answers where simple ones suffice.

I don't see much evidence that Anderson is slowing down (or going crazy). His cautious performances against Leites, Maia, and Cote mainly show that he knows how to win a fight without taking unnecessary risks, something any bettor should love. His problems with Sonnen were a natural result of his lackluster TD defense, and maybe a rib injury.

In Vitor's case, his losses are also mostly due to opponents taking advantage of identifiable weaknesses in his game. It's true that he can fold if he's losing, but I'm not sure it's ever really cost him a fight. He may not have the best stamina, but he's probably being underrated in that regard. He's shown several times that he can win (and lose) 15 minute fights. Vitor is no Sokoudjou.

I doubt Vitor's Shotokan training is going to help him much. Seems like the main advantage is that you can show your opponent an unfamiliar style, but Anderson is probably too familiar with Machida and Vitor for him to be caught off guard.

Both guys may have a weakness to leg kicks. Of the two, Anderson is the more likely to try to take advantage of this. If he does, I think Vitor would be making a mistake not to threaten to take Silva down as a counter.

I really don't know how this fight is going to look. Could be a cautious snoozefest or a 1 round war KO. It really says something when even Dana White, the guy who's supposed to promote the fight, basically comes out and says, "Fuck it, I don't know. Maybe it will be boring."

Anyway, I think Vitor could really chew up a lot of guys in the MW division: Marquardt, Leben, Bisping, Akiyama, Wanderlei. If he loses tonight, I hope they feed him someone like that for a fight in Brazil.

[SPX]

Good thoughts, Svino.

While it's true that Silva has never come close to losing a striking match (sans getting knocked down by Sonnen, I suppose)--and that he's obviously an awesome striker--there aren't a lot of great strikers at MW. There are some GOOD strikers, but not many great ones, and Vitor on his good days is a truly great striker.

Silva may come out and just dominate the fight all around. If he does, then that answers a lot of questions. But if not, then we'll know that at least to some extent Anderson has been made to look good by relatively mediocre competition.

[edman5555]

You guys are some weak bettors. You get down a few units and everyone thinks its time to go Kamikaze . It amazing that all you guys preach is money management and discipline when you're ahead but as soon as things get a little rough everyone wants to go all in . No one wanted to go all in when they were up units last year, that should tell you something

Well I am not really a weak bettor. I have been making larger bets since the beginning of the year, it is a new strategy of mine to bet bigger when I am very confide t. I have been keeping an eye on cerrone since he outwrestled jamie varner and I have been planning to make a big bet on him for a while now..before clementocopolypse. I have also been planning on betting jones big for a while. My new parlay project is something that has been brewing for awhile. Other than that my forrest/vitor bets just seemed like good dog bets. I am chasing a little bit here but not nearly as bad as it may look to you.

[Luke]

Seriously ? I can get Silva -199 now? I think I'm going to get on this

[poopoo333]

Seriously ? I can get Silva -199 now? I think I'm going to get on this

Is that at the greek? I am pretty confident in silva tonight, I am going to bet him no matter what

[zY|]

But if not, then we'll know that at least to some extent Anderson has been made to look good by relatively mediocre competition.

How do you come to this conclusion? Seems like quite an enormous leap in logic that if he doesn't destroy Vitor then he's fought nothing but cans.

[zY|]

Vitor has been made to look good by relatively mediocre competition.

I think this is a much more accurate assessment.

[Luke]

LOL Belfort even getting a title shot is a joke. Belfort comes to the UFC beats Franklin who isnt even top 10 in any weight class and suddenly he's next in line for the title.


Belfort hasnt beat a top 10 fighter since 2004 when he beat Couture

[Luke]

Is that at the greek? I am pretty confident in silva tonight, I am going to bet him no matter what

matchbook


Thegreek has -220 at the moment