UFC 123 Betting Results

[Luke]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

Sort of off topic, but there is nothing good or bad about parlays. They make you win more, but they make you lose more. You are raising your second bet, that's it. I don't see how a boxing parlay is somehow good and an MMA one is bad. They are both the same, the odds are the same. There are more variables in MMA, but I think that is refelcted in the lines (boxing lines seem to go over -1000 all the time, an MMA line over -600 is pretty rare).

I have not been posting my multi-event parlays in the tracker, but if it is all taking place over the same event, I post it.

imo boxing parlays are better because there are so many more ways to lose in a MMA fight than a boxing one. Any one punch,slip or fall can end a MMA fight

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

I'm with ya Luke. But I still will keep my Boxing parlays slim and keep them to 2 fighters or at most 3.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

I'm with ya Luke. But I still will keep my Boxing parlays slim and keep them to 2 fighters or at most 3.

I always say 2 or 3 fighters too even though I've never went over 2 . I try to find 2 -300 fighters usually

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

I'm with ya Luke. But I still will keep my Boxing parlays slim and keep them to 2 fighters or at most 3.

I always say 2 or 3 fighters too even though I've never went over 2 . I try to find 2 -300 fighters usually

Same here. In fact, i was thinking since you and YoungTurk seem to be high on both Arthur and JMM, a 2 fight parlay might be an idea.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

You just think that, because those are the ones you were adding to your parlays.

Very high lines are definitely MORE common in boxing. No doubt about that. I can't even remember the last -1000 line I saw in MMA.

It is because you have the F'n Klits brothers in Europe fighting the rest of the complete shit we now call the HW division.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

I have nothing against parlays if done right. But if the backbone of your betting is just a bunch of parlays, I think you have a problem. I know I have said it before. But there is a reason successful sports bettors do not play the parlay game much. i wish that one dude was still around that pissed everyone off. Because while his results at the time were good, I knew the crash was coming for him. i just kept quiet about it. the dude had to many parlays going on, an event was going to come that was almost going to wipe him out. scientist, you yourself was lucky that Havis pointed out the fault in your lucky parlays. I wanted to, but did not want the backlash.

I agree. I have always said the same thing... it will work for while, but then you crash. Because you are betting too much for your bankroll. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th bet on parlays are often like 9u (18%). It is too much for the bankroll. But just like any other bet, if you manage the bankroll properly, it is no different than any other bet. If I make a 5u bet on a 5 fight parlay that pays 5u. That is exactly the same thing as betting 5u at even money. the risk is the same. If you think you can find value in it, there is no problem, and you have to manage your bankroll accordingly. As long as you recognize that, no problem.

The guy that crashed and burned, I think me and SPX actually had a conversation about it, where I said, "he'll bust out eventually." Guys like that come and go... flat bettors stay around and let the edge play out.

As for boxing lines vs. MMA lines... Boxing lines are definitely higher. I look at all the lines, not just the parlay lines.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

imo boxing parlays are better because there are so many more ways to lose in a MMA fight than a boxing one. Any one punch,slip or fall can end a MMA fight

agreed. But like I siad, I think it is priced in. A -250 guy in MMA would usually have a significant edge in skills, but then the variables in MMA make him -250. In boxing, -250 the guys might be pretty close skill wise, but the fights are more likely to play out as you see them. The gamplans and possible outcomes are way more finite.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

I have nothing against parlays if done right. But if the backbone of your betting is just a bunch of parlays, I think you have a problem. I know I have said it before. But there is a reason successful sports bettors do not play the parlay game much. i wish that one dude was still around that pissed everyone off. Because while his results at the time were good, I knew the crash was coming for him. i just kept quiet about it. the dude had to many parlays going on, an event was going to come that was almost going to wipe him out. scientist, you yourself was lucky that Havis pointed out the fault in your lucky parlays. I wanted to, but did not want the backlash.

I agree. I have always said the same thing... it will work for while, but then you crash. Because you are betting too much for your bankroll. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th bet on parlays are often like 9u (18%). It is too much for the bankroll. But just like any other bet, if you manage the bankroll properly, it is no different than any other bet. If I make a 5u bet on a 5 fight parlay that pays 5u. That is exactly the same thing as betting 5u at even money. the risk is the same. If you think you can find value in it, there is no problem, and you have to manage your bankroll accordingly. As long as you recognize that, no problem.

The guy that crashed and burned, I think me and SPX actually had a conversation about it, where I said, "he'll bust out eventually." Guys like that come and go... flat bettors stay around and let the edge play out.

As for boxing lines vs. MMA lines... Boxing lines are definitely higher. I look at all the lines, not just the parlay lines.

You are correct, the risk is the same(in $'s) But you still need 5 fighters to come through which means 5 fights to find value as opposed to 1. The fact is you might be better off just taking your 5 units and betting each guy individually rolling the entire amount each time.

For instance, this last UFC you won like 3 or 4 units I think(could be wrong), but i thought I heard you say that. But how many units did you risk(all together) to accomplish that. Was it like 20 or more units?

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

imo boxing parlays are better because there are so many more ways to lose in a MMA fight than a boxing one. Any one punch,slip or fall can end a MMA fight

agreed. But like I siad, I think it is priced in. A -250 guy in MMA would usually have a significant edge in skills, but then the variables in MMA make him -250. In boxing, -250 the guys might be pretty close skill wise, but the fights are more likely to play out as you see them. The gamplans and possible outcomes are way more finite.

In boxing you sometimes have squash matches. A champion might fight a guy not even in the top 10. MMA fighters TEND to fight competition at least somewhat close in comparison. It would be like Anderson Silva defending his strap against Scott Smith.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

You are correct, the risk is the same(in $'s) But you still need 5 fighters to come through which means 5 fights to find value as opposed to 1. The fact is you might be better off just taking your 5 units and betting each guy individually rolling the entire amount each time.

For instance, this last UFC you won like 3 or 4 units I think(could be wrong), but i thought I heard you say that. But how many units did you risk(all together) to accomplish that. Was it like 20 or more units?

yeah, I had 18u in play. But it would not be uncommon for me to have 20u in play straight bets either. I have done that several times. And I have had similar results several times.

To me, it doesn't make a difference how many units I have in play on a particular card, that should not matter. A card is just an arbitrary cut off... If I am going to lose, it won't save me if it happens all on the same card or not. If I think there is value to a bet, I am going to make it, regardless of how many units I already have at risk.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

I disagree boxing lines are higher than MMA line if anything I think its the other way around . The lines you are seeing for the most part that are high are tune up fights for boxers, something like a top 10 fighter vs a guy ranked 1500. You dont even see lines for MMA fights like that . I mean what would a Shamrock line be vs a guy that I could beat with 4 weeks of training ? -2000? What would Anderson Silva be vs some local guy ?-50000?

The only lines that are put up in MMA are ufc ,bellator,SF and other big promos. The fights that have a named fighter vs a no one dont have lines in MMA if they did you'd see -1000 lines everywhere.

I think MMA lines are much more inflated than boxing . In MMA you might have 2 top 5 fighters fighting each other and the line might be -600(penn-edgar) in boxing if 2 top 5 fighters fought the line more than likely wouldnt be -600 . Even Machida -Rampage was 2 top 4 fighters and the line was -250 to -300 .
So I actually think MMA lines are much more inflated .

[Luke]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

Ok going back and forthis getting us no where. Lets vote yes or no on parlays,props etc in the trackers?


I say no

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

No

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 Betting Results

No