UFC 128 Newark, NJ March 19 Rua vs Jones

[MMA_scientist]

Here is what I am thinking:

continue my locks parlay: 10.83u to win 1.61u on "not Wineland by sub/not Shalorus by sub/not Schaub by sub"

Faber/Benevidez: 4u to win 2.4u

Jones/Shogun ITD: 4u to win 1.14u + .5u to win 2.18u on Jones by decision (hedge @ +437)

considering:
Marquardt/Miller goes to decision: 2.1u to 2 win 1u

[MMA_scientist]

I may even hedge out completely on Jones by decision... but then that is a lot of risk on "Not Shogun by decision"

[edman5555]

Marquardt has pretty heavy hands. I don't know if I would bet that.

[trotterz]

on the other hand, miller has a really good chin

[MMA_scientist]

Miller has never been finished. he has a really well rounded ground game, but he is definitely behind in the striking. On the ground, I actually think Miller is a little better. Marquart should try to force a stand up fight, and he might be able to drop him and then pound him out. But I think it is going to a decision... just don't know if I want to pay 2:1 for it

[trotterz]

If my memory is good, miller didn't really even try to take bisping down in their fight. If he did, he didn't try often. He had no problem about standing up agains,t a better striker even if he knew that he was getting outclassed and that his ground game was WAAAYY better than bispings.
So IMO Marquardt is gonna decide where the fight is going to play out, standing or on the ground.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Bisping would outstrike Marquart, FWIW. But Nate has shown more power. I just think Marquart's striking is overrated and is based on a couple of highlight reel moments against Kampmann and Gouveia. He is much less effective when he is thinking about the takedown. I do think he will win, I just don't think he will get a finish.

[Ludo]

I think Bisping would outstrike Marquart, FWIW. But Nate has shown more power. I just think Marquart's striking is overrated and is based on a couple of highlight reel moments against Kampmann and Gouveia. He is much less effective when he is thinking about the takedown. I do think he will win, I just don't think he will get a finish.

Don't forget the Zulu moment he had with Maia.

[edman5555]

Grappling - Let's say Miller is a little bit better than MQ, he probably isn't better by enough to land a sub and without that I don't see him winning. MQ is a stronger guy isn't he? He should be able to muscle the takedowns if he wants to.

[edman5555]

He also knocked out Palhares, if you wan't to count that. Nates got some serious power, he might not have tight technique though.

Nate also hurt Chael pretty bad. Gashed his head open and almost choked him out, Chael said that he was going unconsious in an interview. He did somewhat alright against Yushin though he did gas at the end and lose the third round. I know everyone says he is overrated but he is still pretty damn good.

[SPX]

How can Dan Miller compete . . . WITH THIS:

[MMA_scientist]

Grappling - Let's say Miller is a little bit better than MQ, he probably isn't better by enough to land a sub and without that I don't see him winning. MQ is a stronger guy isn't he? He should be able to muscle the takedowns if he wants to.

Yeah, I think it is really close grappling wise, Nate is good too... I don't think either man will land a sub. Nate is a better striker, i think Miller's wrestling may be a little better than you are crediting though, and slightly better than Nate's. Miller stuffed Maia a lot in their fight and Maia never passed Miller's guard when he finally did get him down (though I think that was from fatigue). They are comparable on the ground IMO. Nate may even be better... but I personally think Miller has a better grappling style for MMA.

[MMA_scientist]

How can Dan Miller compete . . . WITH THIS:

he would have to do what Nate does...

[SPX]

he would have to do what Nate does...

I was thinking more like. . .





And clever use of. . .





And just a bit of. . .

[edman5555]

I think Maia wanted to stand with Miller. It was right after MQ KO'd him. I think he wanted to practice/prove himself.