Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

yeah, I am with you on the mismatches. They are free money, you have to take it. Even at -600, Couture had value. I actually believed Overeem/Rogers would be competitive (maybe even edge to Rogers). In hindsight, that was really damn silly.

But Overeem vs Fujita/Thompson/Goodridge/Syvester? Free money. Mousasi/Goodridge? Free money. Overeem vs. whoever he fights next weekend will fall into that category. Same thing with Aoki. I am taking the free money on these showcase freakshow bets from now on. I have never seen one lose.

Fedor Emelienanko?

Lashley ?

No. You can't showcase a guy that is not established as a quality fighter. Lashley was not established as a legit fighter (and still isn't). He may actually be on the ass end of the showcase NYE w/ Overeem...

[edman5555]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

I'm no expert but I don't think Big Nogs guard is nearly as good as Werdums. I think they are pretty far apart

[Dr_Ngo]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Yea, Werdum is an ADCC Gold Medalist (aka best of the best). Think Big Nog was effect with his BJJ because of his wrist control and his chin.

Still pissed off about Gonzaga this year. Nothing I hate more than a sick grappler that thinks he's a kickboxer

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Werdum is definitely more accomplished that Nog in bjj and a better all around grappler IMO, but then again, Nog beat Werdum in an MMA fight which I have never seen (but I think Nog won it with his boxing not his grappling).

[poopoo333]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Nice thread man, good job this year and good luck next year! This year (my first as well) was a definite learning experience for me too.

[SPX]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Good thread here. I want to respond to some of the specific points that have been made, but first here are some stats that I worked up today.

One thing I'd like to point out: Parlays and props are not included in my main records and results, or in my results per organization. They're their own self-contained category. The one exception is my boxing results. I included props because I had so few boxing bets for the year.

I've said that one unit represents 2% of my bankroll. That's close to true, but as I have spent most of the year playing with a total bankroll of under $1000 (I started with a total of around $700 . . . not sure of the exact amount) and use a $20 unit, it's actually a little more. I have never adjusted my unit, so the actual percentage fluctuates. But for our purposes, we'll say 2%.


Overall YTD Total: +10.8u
Total Straight Bets Made: 175

Favorites: 54-29 / +1.52u
Underdogs: 37-55 / +11.52u

Parlays: 2-9 / +.76u
Props: 1-10 / -1.68u

UFC: +12.26u
WEC: +7.66u
Strikeforce: -6.09u
DREAM: -1u
Bellator: -.95u
MFC: +1.77u
Shark Fights: -4.5u
Other: +2.02u
Boxing: +.36u


Thoughts and Observations: The first thing I noticed, which I found shocking, was that I just barely showed a profit in terms of bets on favorites. Almost all of my money I made came from underdog bets. Looking through my records, it seems there are two very big reasons for my poor overall performance here: 4u on Soko to beat Alexander and 5u on Machida to beat Rampage. Had I won those two fights right there I would've ended up over 10 units ahead in my bets on favorites. But as it stands, just those two little fights alone--out of 175 total bets made--had a massive impact.

This leads me to the conclusion that we just HAVE to win our bets on favorites. Just losing one 3u bet can fuck up an entire event and even if you win two or three other bets you may still end up behind for the night, or barely breaking even. (This has happened to me more times than I can count . . . just one bet ruined what would've been an otherwise profitable night.) The other side of this coin is that I need to get back to betting more dogs. I had a little run there where I was doing well on underdog bets but then I had a bad event where I lost several dog bets and it made me gunshy. I went back to betting mostly favorites, as that seemed to be "safer," and then ended up losing money when those favorites lost to dogs that I probably otherwise would've bet on in the past. So don't overlook the dogs and if you bet on a favorite make sure you have a very good reason for doing so.

I also noticed that my performance in regard to Strikeforce is abysmal. It got better toward the end of the year, but in the first half I lost several fairly big bets and had a lot of losing events. AA over Bigfoot, Lawler over Babalu, Mousasi over King Mo . . . all losers. Not sure what it is about that promotion, but I have not done well. I need to start paying more attention.

Keys to doing better in 2011: 1. Research. I make too many bets based on my memory of fighters' performances or I'm just following others. When I really commit myself to my research, I see the difference in the results. 2. Take the dog more often in close fights or don't bet at all. Too many times if the fight's close then I go with the favorite. I get swayed by the fact that apparently everyone else thinks they're going to win so I decide they probably will. Then a lot of times they don't. If it looks like it might be close, then I need to convince myself on why I SHOULDN'T bet the underdog rather than the other way around. 3. Perhaps make fewer bets in general. I have a habit of spreading smaller amounts of money around to a lot of fights rather than a lot of money on fewer fights. I just don't like to have all my eggs in one basket, but it may be more profitable in the long run to focus on that sort of strategy. Then again, I tried that with Soko and Machida and clearly the results can be disastrous. 4. Pay more attention to a fighter's recent performances and results rather than just looking at the matchup on paper. I've often bet on fighters like Soko, Jardine, Varner, etc thinking that--on paper--they should win. Then they don't. I need to be more cautious in this regard.

My initial goal for the year was 25 units and at one point I was very close to that before hitting a pretty bad losing streak. Thankfully, I was able to rebound somewhat and end the year on an upward climb. In terms of real dollars, I deposited somewhere around $700 in the middle of 2009, which is when I first started betting. (It was around the TUF 9 finale.) I now have a total of $975.84 in my accounts. When I hit $1250 I intend to adjust my unit accordingly.

The goal for 2011 is once again 25 units. Good luck to us all.

[Svino]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Interesting thread, guys. This is also my first full year of MMA betting. Last year, I did about half a year of 'imaginary' betting, and half a year of real betting, and my betting style has changed quite a bit since then.

I may still bet on some NYE fights, but I did a compilation of my almost-full-year stats.

I'll be finishing somewhere around +66% for the year. I think I've been lucky; I'll be very happy if I can do anything like half this well on a regular basis. I did a breakdown of my bets by "odds category" and some of the results were interesting (to me anyway). That is, I categorized them by implied odds, so bets above -400 are in the 80%+ category, between -233 and -400 in the 70%-79% category, and so on.

80%+
My record: 10/10 (100%)
Only one of these (Couture/Toney) was a freakshow fight, but I agree with what has been said about them earlier in the thread.

70%-79%
My record: 13/17 (76%)
The losses: Stevenson (vs. G-Sot), Harris (vs. Falcao), Machida (vs. Rampage), and fucking Stevenson again. I was doing soooo well in this category until a little while ago, then I blew it. Let me just say that I second the good Dr. Ngo's "never betting on Stevenson again" policy.

60%-69%
My record: 12/19 (63%)

50%-59%
My record: 8/15 (53%)

40%-49%
My record: 15/27 (55%)

30%-39%
My record: 13/30 (43%)

20%-29%
My record: 8/20 (40%)
Several of the losses here were frustratingly close, too. (Sonnen/Silva, Masvidal/Daley, Modaferri/Kaufman)

19%-
My record: 1/12 (8.3%)
I'm 1/5 on picking fight winners here, with the only win being Pyle over Hathaway. The other bets were longshot props. My "fastest TKO" project is not going well.

Biggest win for the year: Rua over Machida. Biggest loss: Machida over Jackson.

Anyway, after all this, my point is that I'm pretty consistently "not-much-better-than-given-odds" at picking favorites, but solid at picking underdogs. Similar to what SPX found, I guess. I ended up only about +6% on all favorites, and +60% on dogs, a 1:10 profit ratio favoring underdogs. Oddly enough, that pattern didn't hold on the extreme ends, where I was better with heavy favorites than heavy dogs. While I'm not quite ready to give up betting favorites, my game there definitely needs work. So yeah, I thought sbjj might be amused to see that.

I clearly do better on fights where I've done more research, but I also have done OK in some cases with only minimal research. Future rule, though: no betting on favorites under these conditions, only dogs. I hadn't seen enough footage on Falcao and Oliveira to justify those bets on Harris and Escudero.

I've been experimenting with a few projects toward the end of the year. One is to get just a little bit bolder at making many smaller bets on a card to reduce variance. It's been going fairly well so far, but I don't know if I'm going to be doing this long-term or not. I've also been experimenting with betting more props, mainly focusing on picking fights to go to decision (or decision winners), and picking "quickest KO/sub" on occasion. The first project is going well; the second isn't. I'm also starting to collect data on over/under and "goes to decision" odds and results to look for patterns there.

I'm not so sure about immediate rematches; I might have had a change of heart on this. Sometimes it is surprising just how different the rematch looks. Even though I bet Rua over Machida, I wasn't expecting a first round finish. And of course, there was Cung Le / Smith rematch, and K-Sos / Bonnar.

One way to protect against bad judging a bit is to also put down a bet on the fight going to decision on fights where you think the odds are decent for that. Obviously, I wish that instead of betting on Machida and "Machida by decision", I had put that second bet on "goes to decision", which I was thinking of doing. You usually get better odds with less "vig" there, also.

[SPX]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Interesting post, Svino.

Very interesting breakdown of your results, too.

To respond to a few of your points:

1. Underdogs. Yes. As I stated in my own post.

2. I think you're going to have a hard time with the gimmicky props like quickest KO, quickest sub, etc. One reason my prop record is so shitty is that I've taken a lot of props that are along the lines of quickest sub or so-and-so wins via KO or so-and-so wins in the 3rd round. I've never once had such a bet hit.

3. As for rematches, I agree that it's iffy. Sometimes rematches look just like the first fight. And often times they do not. I guess I'd need to see the actually stats on how often fighters win both the first fight and the rematch, but at this point I think it's questionable to come to the conclusion that "rematches usually look like the first fight."

[Svino]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Still pissed off about Gonzaga this year. Nothing I hate more than a sick grappler that thinks he's a kickboxer

I think Gonzaga's biggest problem is his weak takedowns. If you look back at his early fights, he was constantly going for the TD, and usually failing. He was almost forced into a kickboxer strategy.

[Svino]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

I guess I'd need to see the actually stats on how often fighters win both the first fight and the rematch, but at this point I think it's questionable to come to the conclusion that "rematches usually look like the first fight."

I've heard stats about who wins rematches and I recall that it's pretty close to 50/50. But I think there could be a difference between "rematches" and "immediate rematches".

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Good stuff guys.

Re: favorites and dogs... for whatever reason -200 to -275 is still my sweet spot. I win those bets at at least 2x the implied win rate. I did well on dogs this year though.

For me, I would have had a pretty good year, but I did way too much experimenting and way too much chasing. Disaster struck twice this year, once on Rolles/Marquart which were premeditated, so I can say that this was just negative variance. The other disaster was Sokodjou/Jardine on Shark fights. This was a pure chase, and bets that I specifically said were bad bets before the event started. If I would have eliminated that mistake from my year, I would have done pretty well. It is all stuff I already knew, but I just have trouble implementing it because I am a wild-man at heart.

Bottom line, and I think we are noticing this: a couple mistakes can cost you your year.

2011: Shit just got serious.

[Thewiseman]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

I am getting very serious in 2011. Trying to up my units at least 4-5 times by spring. I want $500 units.

[Thewiseman]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Mistake of the year had to be Thiago over Kampmann and Barry over Cro-Cop. Was on both for big bets. Glad I hedged alot off of Barry though.

[Dr_Ngo]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

Win Loss Net Units
Underdogs = 19 5 20.7
-100 -200 16 16 -7.5
-201 -300 23 6 5
-301 -400 8 1 5
-401 Over 2 1 -7
Total 16.2

Decision bets = Win Loss
4 0 6

Some conclusions from this data.

I rock at underdog bets. 19-5, +21 units.
-100 to -200 is a huge problem area. These are favorites and I shouldn't be negative in theory. I'm going to be more careful with these bets.
-201 to -300 is a great area for me. 23-6. A few bad decisions and flukes fucked it up for me.
-301 to -400 8-1, +5 units. Don't really think there's great value in this area as one fluke could really fuck things up.
-400 and over. -7 units, Rolles gracie, enough said.

4-0 +6U in deciding how long the fight will be. Definitely going to be playing this more in 2011.

So big theme in 2011 is I'm going to track my bets a lot deeper. Analyzing odds, strikeforce vs. ufc, etc. etc.

I encourage you guys to analyze your data as well, a lot of it was surprising to me!

[edman5555]

Re: Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

It seems like underdog bets work the best for all of us. Except for Scientist. He does well everywhere. I think it's because he knows wrestling/BJJ. he has a niche he understands so he does well within that realm. For the rest of us we do well when the reward exceeds the stake so that we win if we are successful a fair portion of the time. God damn they need to make sprots betting legal in Ameriaca. I mean full fledged legal. Imagine the possibilites.

In tune with that. I met a guy in a bar that was a bball better. He told me him and his freinds made 30k betting on bodog. After that, he told me bodog started lowering the odds on them. Has anyone else heard stories like this? I know some of us are hoping to make this a job. This type of action from a online bookie would be a direct threat to this,