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My .02: Davis has never fought someone that will survive on the ground. Davis will be able to put him down IMO. But Nog could sweep him for sure. Lil Nog is not much of a submission threat, but he does have a nice deep half guard sweep (the "Homer" sweep), which works really well against a wrestler's base (same sweep he hit on Brilz and Feijao hit on Hendo this week)
For fun, here is a vid of the sweep because I guarantee you will see Nog going for it. Davis should be prepared for it though, but at least you can watch the micro battle for deep half guard and maybe feel some of my enthusiasm for the ground game:
Anyway, Davis will likely be in the same situation Brilz and Bader were in. Yes, he can take Nog down, but what will he be able to do with it. Also Bader and Brilz probably have better striking than Davis at this point. My guess is that it goes the distance and Davis wins a decision. But Nog will get some licks in. I might put something small on Nog, just because of judging. Both his fights with wrestlers before were very close on the cards.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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one more, almost perfect:
The Homer sweep works awesome on a wrestler's base. It takes a lot of practice, but there are so many outs once you get them loaded up... you can come out the back, come up to a knee tap (like the Nog gif), stand up with the single, switch to X guard or a leg lock... it is awesome. The only downside is that you generally get punched in the face if you don't get the weight rocking right away. They can't punch you once they are loaded up though, because they need the hands to post2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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You can see a lot of videos about it online if you do a YouTube or Google search. Marcelo Garcia has some good ones.Comment
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I think X Guard is stupid personally. But Marcelo Garcia disagrees. If you get to the position, you get a sweep though, like 98% effective. The battle is getting there consistently. Marcelo has midget legs and he has some crazy entries, so it is easy for him. But yeah, I don't know how much hype it gets though... it is actually fairly rare to see it.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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