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Bendo has that guillotine choke though... so I am going to stay away from that. I am also staying away from the GSP fight.
I am looking at
Not McDonald by sub- just don't see Diaz getting subbed by anyone in the UFC. Even if he was caught, he wouldn't tap, so it woul have to be a technical submission.
Not Machida by sub or not Randy by sub- this one COULD happen, but I doubt either man submits the other. Randy has been going for more submissions lately, so I would probably go "not machida by sub" which has better odds anyway.
I think "not Pierson by sub" is doable. Ellenberger's grappling is not the most technical, but he has avoided being submitted by superior wrestlers and superior bjj artists. If Rocha and Pyle can't submit him, I doubt Pierson is going to.
"Not Vlad by sub" is solid too. Brilz has shown solid submission defense and he has some nice subs of his own. The one guy that submitted him (Vince Fields) is the guy I first trained with way back in 2001. Vince is/was a really slick grappler even back then, way ahead of the curve. In 2001 he was a high level grappler, taking on Brilz who was probably just a wrestler. Also, Vlad doesn't have a lot of submissions... he really only has a couple of legit subs on his record.
"Not Hominick by sub" is the last one. Aldo is legit on the ground, a lot of people don't know aabout his grappling, but if he would have stayed in sport bjj, he would probably be a very decorated grappler. He has some quality wins at the lower levels, he is a Nova Uniao bb (serious bizness), and if you believe the rumors he is giving guys like Cobrinha (multiple world champion) trouble on the ground. Anyway, Aldo's ground game may be better than his striking.
So I am thinking, 5u to win 1.3u on:
"not Hominick wins by sub/ not Machida wins by sub/not Matyushenko wins by sub/ not R.MacDonald wins by sub/ not Pierson wins by sub"
I am only really concerned about the Diaz and Machida bets, just because McDonald and Machida both have good ground games. I am not worried about the others at all. Anyway, it is not a lock by any means IMO, but I think it is worth -380, which is what it comes out to.
I am looking at
Not McDonald by sub- just don't see Diaz getting subbed by anyone in the UFC. Even if he was caught, he wouldn't tap, so it woul have to be a technical submission.
Not Machida by sub or not Randy by sub- this one COULD happen, but I doubt either man submits the other. Randy has been going for more submissions lately, so I would probably go "not machida by sub" which has better odds anyway.
I think "not Pierson by sub" is doable. Ellenberger's grappling is not the most technical, but he has avoided being submitted by superior wrestlers and superior bjj artists. If Rocha and Pyle can't submit him, I doubt Pierson is going to.
"Not Vlad by sub" is solid too. Brilz has shown solid submission defense and he has some nice subs of his own. The one guy that submitted him (Vince Fields) is the guy I first trained with way back in 2001. Vince is/was a really slick grappler even back then, way ahead of the curve. In 2001 he was a high level grappler, taking on Brilz who was probably just a wrestler. Also, Vlad doesn't have a lot of submissions... he really only has a couple of legit subs on his record.
"Not Hominick by sub" is the last one. Aldo is legit on the ground, a lot of people don't know aabout his grappling, but if he would have stayed in sport bjj, he would probably be a very decorated grappler. He has some quality wins at the lower levels, he is a Nova Uniao bb (serious bizness), and if you believe the rumors he is giving guys like Cobrinha (multiple world champion) trouble on the ground. Anyway, Aldo's ground game may be better than his striking.
So I am thinking, 5u to win 1.3u on:
"not Hominick wins by sub/ not Machida wins by sub/not Matyushenko wins by sub/ not R.MacDonald wins by sub/ not Pierson wins by sub"
I am only really concerned about the Diaz and Machida bets, just because McDonald and Machida both have good ground games. I am not worried about the others at all. Anyway, it is not a lock by any means IMO, but I think it is worth -380, which is what it comes out to.
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