Ufc 130

[poopoo333]

I kind of thought that Story would push the pace and have a shot at grinding Alves out and make it a fight against the fence. Alves has struggled with wrestlers, but they WERE Fitch and GSP. He handled Koscheck well, but then again Koscheck had the Sean Sherk disease in that fight IIRC

[SPX]

I definitely feel that Story has a chance here. I made a small play on him at, I think, +175 and I think it's a worthwhile bet. That certainly doesn't mean that he's going to win, but Alves better be ready to defend the takedown from a strong wrestler.

[MMA_scientist]

Really?

Sort of. I was playing around with the never ending locks parlay, where I would take massive favorites and just roll the bet over in perpetuity. And I was winning pretty well with that (until I had a melt down and indoptically bet it all on Sokodjou). Sometime last year you were posting all these prop bets and some one else was doing the parlays...and I just started thinking, "what if I did the never ending locks and just strung together a bunch of shit that isn't going to happen." Then I just folded it into my regular bankroll. I have given up on the side project. It started out as a typical R&D project... I was mixing in a lot of boxing too. But after letting it flush out a little, it really works best for me with the submission props and occasional round props.

But IIRC you were playing around with a lot of the props, and they are not something I ever messed with.

[edman5555]

I am feeling really good about this. With enough side props all I need is one or two solid bets and I can get close to even on just about anything. Maybe not everytime, but a lot of the time. And 60 percent of the time, it works everytime. Hopefully the government doesn't shut down sports betting.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, it does help with the returns... but it is not free money, at some point you are going to lose the prop bet and win your underlying bet and then you will be pissed... but yeah, it probably won't be often enough to kill your return. I think you are on to something Edmann. I have already lost 1 magic parlay this year (Miller's kneebar on Oliveira). In hindsight, that was a stupid bet... but that is the way hindsight works.

[MMA_scientist]

Luke or sbjj, is there anywhere in Vegas to find all these props on fights? Or am I going to have to move to Costa Rica so I can gamble?

[edman5555]

I have not verified that they are in Costa Rica.

[edman5555]

I think Antigua has casino's as well. I think there are some casinos based out of there. It might be Antigua, Guatemala though. I'm not sure. There are two. Maybe they both have gambling. I just need to move south.

[sbjj]

Luke or sbjj, is there anywhere in Vegas to find all these props on fights? Or am I going to have to move to Costa Rica so I can gamble?

No. You are lucky if you get Main event props like GSP by decision. This weekend I placed my bets at the M, and there were NO prop bets offered at all. The venetian/Pallazo used to offer Main event props only, but i stopped going to the V because it is another 20 minutes drive and they started giving me shit at the sportsbook.

[edman5555]

That is so lame. Prop bets are so important to have.

[edman5555]

It is called a motherfuckin magic parlay. It is the inverse of the wisemann special.



Thanks... They have been working out great for me. The only downside is that they are pretty much the backbone of my betting strategy now. If 5d ever goes under or bans me, I am not going to be able to bet because I don't know where else to find these props. I don't think they offer all the props in Vegas... ?

I can't take full credit for it though, poopoo actually gave me the idea.

The odds on the Magic parlay props I wanted went to hell. Do you usually see these fluctuate a lot Scientist?

[SPX]

I still question this reliance on props.

In my opinion straight bets should still--and should probably always--be the cornerstone of any betting system.

[edman5555]

Yeah they will be but these are a helpful new tool.

[poopoo333]

Not Maynard, Story, Rampage, Nelson, and Stann by sub is like -400. Thinking about adding Pac man to this if I go through with it. Stann by sub kinda worries me but I don't think Santiago will gas like Massenzio did. And I don't see Nelson subbing Mir.. I actually think that fight may go to decision

[MMA_scientist]

The odds on the Magic parlay props I wanted went to hell. Do you usually see these fluctuate a lot Scientist?

Yeah I am pretty sure they move with the line. If the favorite becomes more of a favorite, the props move too... I think it is actually fairly complicated, but to answer your question: yes, they fluctuate a lot in both directions. Sometimes a submission prop will fall like 1000 points though, from -2300 to -3500, whereas the line might have only moved 30 points. But sometimes they get better by a lot too.