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I'm pissed about Cody. I was going to bet on Bart.
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1 unit = 300 $ -
Do you have the same amount of money from your previous bankroll condensed into a 5u bankroll?1 unit = 300 $Comment
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No, I cashed out 37u
Alves 1.05u to win .5uComment
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Basically Tibau said he has 18kg to cut, so about 40 lbs.Comment
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Your thoughts on. . .?
QJ/Hamill: I'm thinking that on the feet QJ should be the clear winner, but I wouldn't be surprised if the standup is closer than expected. I could also see Hamill taking Rampage down and winning via wrestling. But even though I think Hamill has a better chance than it looks on paper, I still have the feeling Rampage will win and am reluctant to but him. If Hamill got up to +250 I think I'd make a play, but right now I don't really like the line on either guy.
Struve/Brown: Brown actually didn't look THAT bad against Kongo and he kept that fight a lot closer than I was comfortable with. I think I actually favor Browne here, though only by a small margin. I'd probably take him at -130 or better, but I expect him to come in as a dog so I will probably be on him.
Mir/Nelson: After a lot of thought, I think I'm actually leaning Nelson here. I think K-1 Mir will have better standup, but Nelson hits harder. And I think that on the ground Nelson will be able to win the wrestling war, end up on top, and avoid Mir's submission game. I will probably take Nelson if he drops to even or better.
Torres/Johnson: I could potentially see Johnson giving Torres some problems with his wrestling, but I think that at the end of the day it's obvious he's bitten off a little more than he can chew. Because Torres has had some problems with wrestlers in the past I don't think I'd want to take him at too high of a line, but if I could get him at -250 or better I'd probably make the bet. It's too bad he'll probably open at like -400.
Grove/Boetsch: I need to watch some tape on Boetsch before really taking a stance here, but off the top of my head I lean Grove. I think he can probably use his length pick Boetsch apart en route to a decision. I wouldn't take him at too high of a line, though. I'd be looking for something like -130.
What's everyone think? Give me some feedback here.I heart cockComment
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I think Rampage will win. I think this fight might be a lot of clinch work against the cage, but I don't see Hamill taking Rampage down like Rashad did...I think Rashad's speed/explosiveness was a deciding factor in that fight with the TDs and I don't think Hamill will duplicate it. Not sure if I am going to bet it though, I don't really like the line.
Not sure about Browne/Struve. At first I thought Browne had a good chance of blitzing Struve in round 1 and KTFOing him. But I'm not sure. I will probably not bet it unless one of them is like +150. We haven't seen Browne's ground game yet. It's been awhile..did Kongo ever get the TD against Browne or was it just a lot of clinching against the fence?
Not sure about Mir/Nelson. My gut tells me Mir though. I want to watch some video and stuff first but I think Mir will either win the striking exchanges or this fight will be a lot of clinching against the fence. I think Mir is the better striker then Nelson though.
Torres will probably beat Johnson but I am rooting for Mighty Mouse. If Mighty Mouse is +275 or better I will bet him.
Kendall Grove should win imo. Tim Boetsch looked so bad against Todd Brown. Grove will probably be way quicker and will beat Boetsch to the punch. And who knows how Boetsch will handle his first cut to 185? He is a pretty stocky 205 IIRCComment
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I think Rampage beats Hamill but if your going to be on him SPX, go Hamil decision. I don't see him winning any other way.
Mir dropped Kongo, Crop cop and Big nog with punches. That is pretty impressive IMO. Especially the CC and Kongo shots. I think he will be the better striker. I don't know who wins the wrestling though. I would think Nelson would gas if they wrestled a lot but who knows. Frank Mir has to be the more well conditioned athlete. I feel like Big countries fat belly/bad diet is going to catch up with him in the cage. He did stay in there with JDS though so who knows. Frank will probably have a hard time ko'ing him or subbing him so maybe this is another situation where a decision prop is worthwhile. Big country does have some power in his hands though and Frank has been dropped before. It is at plus odds to go the distance. Anyways, my best guess is Mir by decision.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Roy Nelson looks like he has lost some weight fwiw.Comment
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My thought is that Rampage isn't even hardly a wrestler anymore, and while Tito is clearly past his prime he is still decent, and Hamill was able to land takedowns on Tito at will.
It was the other way around. 90% of the fight was on the feet, but Browne did get Kongo down twice from what I remember.I heart cockComment
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I think that Hamill hits deceptively hard. Most of his wins are by (T)KO. Rampage has a good chin so I don't see him going out like that, but it actually wouldn't shock me.
Nog looked like total shit in that fight and CC has been getting fucked up by everyone lately, so I don't really see those wins are great testaments to any KO power beyond what most all heavyweights have naturally. I am with you on the Kongo punch, though. That was nice.I heart cockComment
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Rampage should win that IMO. Hammill might be able to get some takdowns, but I don't think he will be able to hold him there.
I don't know what to think about Browne/Struve. I think Browne may just go berserker on him and drop him. But if Struve survives the initial onslaught, he'll probably win.
I think Mir wins, but it a jard fight to cap and it is close to even for me. Nelson took everything JDS dished out, I doubt Mir will stop him there. I so think Mir is a better striker though. Neither guy will submit the other. Roy's takedowns are not that great, but Mir gets sucked into the clinch game alot... he is not a stick and move guy. I got nothing here.
Torres is going to win. Don't forget that Torres went to work on his wrestling like a mad man, even giving back his black belt because he couldn't wrestle. He is with GSP's trainer now, and he looked a lot like him in his last fight.
I think Grove wins that, but Boetch does hit like a truck and Grove has been napped several times before by power punchers just winging shots. A hail mary punch is the only way I see Boetch winning though. Grove is no joke on the ground, I think he will have a good chance at submitting Boetch if he tries to gnp.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Thanks for the insight. Browne's cardio wasn't terrible in the Kongo fight so I don't expect him to gas too hard, but who knows.I heart cockComment
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