Ufc 130

[edman5555]

why the hell is everyone picking Roy over Mir? I don't get it.

[SPX]

Are they? I think most people are on Mir.

I basically flipped a mental coin, but something tells me Roy might land a bomb like he did on Schaub and Struve, and we know Mir doesn't react well to getting hit hard.

[Ludo]

Because Mir isn't as consistent as Roy is. Roy is durable and hits harder, he also has better wrestling and will likely be pushing the pace. It's not that Roy is necessarily a better fight, he just matches up well against Mir at this point in their careers.

[Svino]

Gleison Tibau vs. Rafaello Oliveira -- Tibau by ragdoll.

Renan Barao vs. Cole Escovedo -- I have more respect now for Brazilian prospects than I used to, and Barao looks sharp.

Michael McDonald vs. Chris Cariaso

Almost every other fight I could see going either way.

Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill -- Rampage hasn't impressed me in a long time. His recent comeback consists of winning two 10-10 rounds against Machida. Hamill actually looked better in the standup against Jardine. Jackson can probably sprawl and brawl his way to a win, but I like Hamill's odds.

Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves -- There's a decent chance that Story can't get the control he needs and Alves destroys him. But I think Story can pull off another Fitching of Alves.

Kendall Grove vs. Tim Boetsch -- Guy with a weak chin vs. a guy who hits hard. Also, Boetsch has never lost to anyone who couldn't massively outwrestle him. I still feel like Grove is simply a more skilled fighter and should be able to win, but I think it's close.

Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago -- Two overrated guys fight. I'll be looking to bet against the winner in their next fight.

Travis Browne vs. Stefan Struve -- I'm gonna stop betting against Struve, because I keep doing that and losing. Brown should be able to get inside and hurt him, but it does seem like Struve is improving.

Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson -- Nelson has significant advantages in cardio and durability, but I think Mir's standing game is just better overall. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Mir got a submission. (Why does no one ever bring up the fact that Mir armbarred Roberto Traven?)

Miguel Torres vs. Demetrious Johnson -- You know, I think Kid Yamamoto may have just been a bit overrated. Even so, Johnson could get himself a control victory here.

[Vandelay]

Mir has a good chin. What he lacks is the heart to overcome adversity. Almost all of his losses are from ground and pound. He routinely goes for submissions and leaves his face open. Carwin had him pushed against the fence and Mir couldn't do shit about it, Brock raped him on the ground, Vera rocked him standing with 2 or 3 knees and Mir gave up after about 15 seconds on the ground, Cruz fight he gave up primarily because he was cut and couldn't sub Cruz within 2 minutes. Roy's standup is largely based on landing that one punch and then swarming. I believe Mir is the superior standup fighter and Nelson doesn't have dangerous ground and pound. Mir should be able outstrike Nelson, but can he avoid his takedowns as well? therein lies the rub

[Svino]

I don't think Nelson has great takedowns, but I could see him blubbering Mir up against the cage and beating him up there a bit.

[Vandelay]

He has that trip td and thats about it. I simply dont think he has the explosiveness and power to implement the carwin gameplan and I think doubt he has to ability to simply take him down and ground and pound him to a stoppage.

[poopoo333]

Luke, why Nelson? I remember in the chat awhile back you said Roy's only way to win is a big overhand right.

[Luke]

Luke, why Nelson? I remember in the chat awhile back you said Roy's only way to win is a big overhand right.

No reason in particular I just highlighted a fighter, I didnt really put a lot of thought in to it

[Ludo]

I don't think Nelson would want to press Mir against the cage like Carwin did, I do think he will want to go to the ground and end up on top though. The chances that Mir subs Roy from the bottom are smaller than if Mir is on top and able to mix strikes with positioning. I think this one may come down to a relative stalemate of sorts. Nelson will be following Mir around trying to land punches or get trips while Mir wears down from an influx of mass. It may not seem like much but Mir cutting from 290 to 260 doesn't leave a whole lot of room for cardio. If this one goes to the third round Nelson just may have the edge in stamina unless he's completely beat to shit like he was in the Dos Santos fight by then.

[Thewisemann]

Scientist, you really thinl Barao is worth -300?

[Thewisemann]

Grove -130 is a great bet.

[Vandelay]

Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill
Frank Murr vs. Roy Nelson
Travis Browne vs. Stefan Struve
Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago
Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves
Miguel Torres vs. Demetrious Johnson
Kendall Grove vs. Tim Boetsch
Renan Barao vs. Cole Escovedo
Chris Cariaso vs. Michael McDonald
Gleison Tibau vs. Rafaello Oliveira

[edman5555]

The bet I like the most (line/chance of win) is Mir. Nelson clipped Schaub when he was really new. He got struve but so has almost everyone he has fought. I don't see Nelson muscling Mir around because I flat out don't think he stronger. I am not sure why he is called the better wrestler. Roy is pretty good for being a big fat guy but he is still a big fat guy. Mir is also claiming he is the best Mir he has ever been. The line is almost even on him as well. I think he wins it.

[poopoo333]

I like Mir as well. My bias (I'm a Big Country fan) kept me away for awhile because I would be rooting for Nelson...but I just think Mir is going to win and I am pretty confident in it. Nelson won a controversial decision over Justin fucking Wren on TUF as well, which was a pure striking match. I think Mir has the advantage striking and in the grappling.. I just think Nelson has to either land an overhand right or get a trip takedown from the clinch and maintain position to steal rounds. Mir is also way too tan for Big Country.