UFC 131 JDS vs Carwin

[SPX]

^^^ Don't forget the Nelson fight. Nelson's a grappler and tried for takedowns but couldn't get them.

Like I said before, even if Brock can win the first round I think he will tire in the last half of the fight. All JDS has to do is hit him good ONCE and it's over.

[MMA_scientist]

I seriously doubt the fight is going to last more than 2 or 3 rounds... Either JDs is going to put him to sleep or Brock is going to hold him down and pound on him like he did to Mir. I like Roy, and I despise Brock, but I don't pretend for a second that Roy's takedowns are anything close to Brock's. The guys that hurt Brock on the feet did so after stuffing a takedown (or in Cain's case, getting up after getting taken down). But then again, Carwin and Cain are almost as accomplished in wrestling as Brock. JDS is smaller than all of them, he doesn't come from a wrestling base. Brock is probably going to get him down at least once (unless JDS just death punches him right off the bat). But since it is still relatively unknown, I have to think Brock is going to get him down and keep him here.

Roy has decent takedowns, but they are not D1 wrestler good. JDS still just has not had to face a strong takedown guy. I would have liked to see him against someone relatively shitty as a fighter, but with good wrestling somewhere along the path. Oh well.

[SPX]

I think if Brock wins, he wins a decision. I don't see him stopping JDS.

Also, I'm not sure about JDS being smaller than Cain.

Finally, sure, I don't think it will last more than 3 rounds . . . I haven't heard of this being for an interim title or anything.

[MMA_scientist]

For some reason, I was thinking 5 rounds... but if JDS gets stuck on the ground, I see no reason why Brock won't stop him. I really think it comes down to can he or can he not get and keep JDS on the ground. If so, Brock wins easily and probably devastatingly. If no, then JDS wins easily and probably devastatingly. Given the known quantities though, it is really just a guess whether JDS will be able to stuff the takedown or escape to his feet.

[poopoo333]

The line is already dropping. Fucking bodog and their 6 month early lines.

At + odds, I would definitely bet Brock. I really don't think you can use JDS defending Nelson's attempted trip TDs while being rocked/exhausted to say JDS has good enough TDD to stuff a 265 lb NCAA champ wrestler. If Brock gets JDS down, I don't expect JDS to easily be able to get to his feet at all, and if he does it's not like he will still be 100% fresh still to go all out and try to catch Brock with a shot. I can see Brock stealing 2 rounds via top control, and IF he even gets tired, I can see him clinching up against the fence in the majority of round 3.

That being said, as a fan, I really hope JDS KTFOs Brock.

[MMA_scientist]

That is pretty much how I see it, except I think it will be a rape on the ground if it stays there. Brock has proven his mettle on the mat, he can grapple and his ground and pound hurts. I am sure JDS is very capable on the ground, but a few years training bjj is not going to prepare him to deal with a bigger stronger high level wrestler. If it stays on the ground for any length of time, I expect a 1 sided beat down. I don't think JDs will survive personally. But maybe his takedown defense and standup ability is awesome.

I would love to see a 30 second KO though, complete with Brock circus monkey cartwheel.

[SPX]

For some reason, I was thinking 5 rounds... but if JDS gets stuck on the ground, I see no reason why Brock won't stop him. I really think it comes down to can he or can he not get and keep JDS on the ground. If so, Brock wins easily and probably devastatingly. If no, then JDS wins easily and probably devastatingly. Given the known quantities though, it is really just a guess whether JDS will be able to stuff the takedown or escape to his feet.

The only truly "devastating" finish Brock has ever had was in the second fight against Mir.

Consider his other fights:

Mir 1 - loss via submission, though it probably should've been a TKO win
Herring - decision
Couture - TKO after catching the old and undersized Couture with a punch; no way does he knock JDS down like that
Carwin - submission against a zombie; no way does he submit JDS like that
Cain - devastating TKO loss

I just don't see Brock having a track record to suggest that he will finish JDS.

[poopoo333]

Couture, Carwin, and Cain=wrestlers. You can't compare JDS to them. Styles make fights.

[poopoo333]

I would also like to point out that JDS slowed down significantly against Nelson, a fight he was dominating. This was a striking match with a few clinch "battles". Brock is going to push the pace and try to grind JDS out on the mat. I think JDS will probably slow down a lot against Brock.

[Mr. IWS]

On paper, the whole; "Brock will take him down" game plan seems all well and good, and I think he can/will take JDS down at some point in the fight, but that dude goes to shit as soon as he takes a couple punches, and after seeing him get hit by Carwin and Cain, I'm not sure what will be different in Brocks approach to actually getting punched in the face now.

I have done a complete 180 on Brock. I really thought the guy was the future, but if He can't take a punch, and keep coming forward in the fight game, He better go find something else to do. And after this fight with JDS, he may do that.

[MMA_scientist]

I just don't see Brock having a track record to suggest that he will finish JDS.

He finished Carwin, Couture, and Mir and that scrub he fought in his first fight. We can downplay the finishes, but Mir and the scrub are the only guys that got stuck under him too. Herring gave his back every time, but Brock did not want to risk losing the back or ending up on bottom, so he never put his hooks in and went for a choke and just stayed there and lumped him up. I am just saying, if JDS gets stuck underneath or tries to play guard against Brock, he is going to look like Mir did, but probably worse because Mir is most likely a better grappler than JDS. If Brock has trouble controlling him, JDS will get his chances and probably KO him easily. But I just don't know how many chances JDS is going to get, that's the question mark in this fight. Brock did get a shot off on Carwin (he got stuffed) before he got rocked. He did get shot off on Cain too. Grapplers looking to shoot can almost always get at least one clean shot off before a real strike is landed. The only question is what will JDS do with it.

Bottom line Brock has finished 4 of 5 out of his wins. He has 7 fights, and 6 of them have not gone the distance. JDS has 13 fights, and only 1 decision. I don't think this is going to a decision.

[edman5555]

I will take Brock in this. Fuck Bodog for posting lines like 6 months in advance. Really.

[SPX]

Couture, Carwin, and Cain=wrestlers. You can't compare JDS to them. Styles make fights.

JDS has his BJJ. It's not like he's ONLY a striker. And if he had no clue about the ground then he would've been put down and kept down by both Gonzaga and Nelson.

[SPX]

I'll also say this: From what we've seen, it looks to me like Brock's striking is a lot shittier than JDS's wrestling.

[zY|]

Given how Brock takes punches, and how JDS delivers them, this is not a great matchup for Brock. I seriously doubt he keeps JDS down for long if he gets it there. And once JDS gets up Brock's confidence will drop significantly.