MMA/Boxing Bets Chatter thread

[Ludo]

I got it at Betus. It's still -135 there too.

[Luke]

^^^^^^you know you're laying -120 on the lock parlay you said was only good at odds right?

[MMA_scientist]

^^^^^^you know you're laying -120 on the lock parlay you said was only good at odds right?

No I'm not. I am laying -120 on GSP/Aldo/not Couture ITD -

[edman5555]

S, why don't you try parlaying your super confident picks(GSP in this case) with your other picks to pump up the lines?

[SPX]

I have a long history of losing parlays. It's a shitty feeling to know that you could've made SOME money by doing a straight bet, but instead you lose because you tried to group it all together.

Conventional wisdom is that parlays are sucker bets. In my case that seems to be true.

[poopoo333]

Don't let him lie to you, his money on Bodog is tied up which is why he isn't making parlays since Bookmaker won't let him

[SPX]

LOL

That's part of it.

But if I usually make a parlay it's a lottery parlay for the hell of it and rarely some serious shit where I put down serious money.

[MMA_scientist]

Parlays neither increase or decrease your odds in most cases (some books do make you pay a small price for honor of parlaying, but it is nominal). But they can be bad because you end up overbetting your bankroll and they increase volatility. The last bet in the parlay is usually a lot bigger than it ought to be... For example if you bet 5u on the GSP/Aldo/Machida parlay... by the time it gets to GSP, you are really betting 8u on GSP to win 2u. That is the bet you made. So it isn't magic money, you are risking more money, which also increases your chances of losing more. So your bankroll will be more volatile... on one hand, it can help you if it is volatile in the positive, but you can go back down just as quickly. I have cleared 30u in the last few months betting these parlays, but I can easily wipe that out in 1 or 2 events. It is just bigger bets, that's it. Nothing magic about it (that's why I call it the magic parlay- for the irony).

But I have come to realize that the psychology is just as important as money management and actual capping skill. You have to find something that works for you that you can stick to. But I generally agree with SPX, you have to be very careful with the parlays, because you will wipe yourself out quick. I can't tell you how many people have come in here with a 30% return per month, then we never see them again. If you want to win, you have to stay in the game.

[edman5555]

Yeah doing what I am doing is tough. It takes a lot of research. If I get sloppy at all I am dead in the water.

[MMA_scientist]

That wasn't directed at you Edman... it was just general rambling. Directed at myself more than anyone else. Like, I said, I think the psychology of only having to pull the trigger once helps me make the bet I want to make. I just try to think of it as all one bet and then total up the odds. I don't think that is wrong either. We just have to be aware of precisely the risk we take with a parlay. As long as you keep it relative to your bankroll, there is nothing wrong with it. It is no different at all mathmatically than a straight bet. For example the GSP/Aldo/Machida bet that a lot of have made... that is an underdog bet. As long as you bet it like you would any other + odds bet, you are fine. But if you bet 5u on it... that is pretty damn aggressive. It still hase a 50% chance of hitting, but under normal circumstances, most of us would not put 5u on a + odds bet. Same thing with my magic parlays... I try to get them under -400 total... each thing individually, might be -2500... but the fact remains that when combined it is supposed to fail 20% of the time, and you have to size your bets accordingly.

[poopoo333]

But if you bet 5u on it... that is pretty damn aggressive. It still hase a 50% chance of hitting, but under normal circumstances, most of us would not put 5u on a + odds bet.

It's a lock anyways

[edman5555]

I might throw 10u on GSP/Aldo. I don't know if I really feel like it though. I would like to just watch one without worrying. On the other hand I will probably regret not betting it because I will win

[MMA_scientist]

It is going to hit... but it still a very agressive move, not as aggressive as wisemann's 8u on the triumverate parlay (that's 20% of his bankroll on an even money bet... it is equivalent fo 10u-20u on Diaz or Brilz). But that is not his m.o., I know it is a kamikaze move because of his life circumstances.

[edman5555]

Yeah I might add some more. I think GSP, Aldo, Machida and Ellenberger win. Those are the only ones I have any idea about. I am scared to bet Machida. At first I thought his wrestling was amazing but then I realized he has only really stuffed Tito and -300 isn't worth it. Ellenberger at -200 is semi risky as well. I might try a Aldo/GSP/EB/Machida parlay depending on the odds for 1u or so.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeash, I am still worried about Machida. But I don't think Couture can stop him, and Machida has shown good sweeps from bottom as well (Nog swept Randy several times). I just hedged my parlay with Couture by decision and I feel ok about that now.