Bellator 45

[Vandelay]

Any opinion on the strauss fight or Warrens wrestling?

[MMA_scientist]

Patricio is going to win IMO, unless Strauss suprises us with his standup like Chandler did. Friere has good takedown defense and I don't think Strauss will be taking him down in the first half of the fight. But Strauss is a lot longer than Patricio, so he could definitely find a way to get it done standing and maybe a takedown or 2 in the second half of the fight.

Warren is probably the very best wrestler in all of MMA, credential wise. I think he uses it pretty well, not the best, but pretty well. I mean he gets stuffed some, but he is beating guys that are way more skilled and younger than him... he is clearly fighting over his head and somehow pulling it off. The other factor is that the guys are FW/BW. It is alot harder to hold guys down at those smaller weights IMO. Just like doing pullups are easier for lighter guys, the strength to weight ratio is just different and they don't get as tired so they are able to stand up a lot better. You don't see a lot of dominant wrestling from the smaller guys... you got Mendes and that is really the only guy I can think of that wins via blanket other than Warren. Still, Patricio is going to finish the job on Warren this time.

[edman5555]

34 is too old now?

[poopoo333]

Pitbull opens @-145

[MMA_scientist]

Looked at all of these fights, don't see anything bettable.

Going to sit it out unless something changes on the Pitbull/Straus line. I think Straus could win that, but I am not taking him at that line, maybe if he comes up some. I would take Friere if he comes down as well.

[SPX]

I'm actually surprised Freire hasn't hit -200 already.

[MMA_scientist]

Well the line is only open at one book, but it has come back down a little. It is in no man's land right now, I want it to move one way or the other.

[SPX]

So at what point do you think either guy has value?

[MMA_scientist]

I would probably take Straus @ +190 ish and Friere at -120 or so. I really think the fight could go either way, but there is no way that Straus will finish Friere, so he really only has one out, and I think Friere is just as likely to win a decision and could also KO or submit him. I need close to 2:1 on Straus for that reason. But I am not confident enough that Friere will win to pay a big price on him.

[SPX]

I was thinking I might take Freire at -135, but I'd have to go back and watch some tape on both guys before I bet it.

[trotterz]

I would probably take Straus @ +190 ish and Friere at -120 or so. I really think the fight could go either way, but there is no way that Straus will finish Friere, so he really only has one out, and I think Friere is just as likely to win a decision and could also KO or submit him. I need close to 2:1 on Straus for that reason. But I am not confident enough that Friere will win to pay a big price on him.

I'm with you and that.
I will probably put money on Freire and also put money on straus by decision. That is his only path to victory

[MMA_scientist]

I'm with you and that.
I will probably put money on Freire and also put money on straus by decision. That is his only path to victory

They rarely offer props on Bellator fights at my books. Of there were props, it would be a much easier bet for me.

[MMA_scientist]

Friere down to -130 on 5d. Thinking about a small play now... hoping it will come down a little more.

[sbjj]

Pumbu is gold at + money.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ I looked at that fight... M'Pumbo looked better in his last fight than Hale did. But what is holding me back is that Hale is probably going to come to grapple, and I don't know about M'Pumbo's TD defense or grappling ability. Hale had Linderman mounted quickly when he finally decided to grapple in round 3, and he pulled off that inverted triangle... M'Pumbu went for some submissions in his first fight but he did get taked down in the second and lost the first round on his back. He did stuff Davis's shots in that fight in the 3rd round.

The best I can get him for is -110 though... I would consider either man at + odds.