UFN 25: Battle on the Bayou 9/17

[poopoo333]

Still no lines for this card...books must think it's as shitty as we do

nvm

[poopoo333]

Still no lines for this card...books must think it's as shitty as we do

[poopoo333]

Daniel Roberts Injured, Mike Stumpf Steps In to Face T.J. Waldburger at UFN 25

[Vandelay]

half heartedly looked and found

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21Xkm46t3j0

[poopoo333]

Jorge Lopez is Wand's star pupil. Came up with a wrestling background and seems to have a brawling style.

Any vids on him?

[Ludo]

Yeah I guess whoever posted that jacare is a gasser was right. Thank god I got cold feet. I was going to bet half my accounts. I was thinking about doing that with shields too. I still may place a 10u bet on him.

Sounds really risky considering Shields' father dying last week. Plus I have a bet on Ellenberger, but best of luck regardless of what you decide on.

[Vandelay]

Jorge Lopez is Wand's star pupil. Came up with a wrestling background and seems to have a brawling style.

[edman5555]

Yeah I guess whoever posted that jacare is a gasser was right. Thank god I got cold feet. I was going to bet half my accounts. I was thinking about doing that with shields too. I still may place a 10u bet on him.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah Mckenzie's standup is very good but who knows what Rochas is like. Cerrone didn't let Rocha touch him. Grappler vs Grappler and Rocha is the better one. But like you guys I am hesitant to bet him because he is new and we haven't seen much of him. That one guy he lost to beside Cerrone is pretty good though. Brett Bergmark is his name. Anyways, I will probably bet Rocha if i can get him at +0dds. Which might happen..

I am horrible at guessing opening lines, but I would be surprised to see McKenzie as a favorite at any point.

Shields- Ellenberger. My original though was to bet shields huge here because I figure he can dominate Ellenberger on the ground. That is what I thought about Souza-Rockhold though, I turned out to be wrong there though. I read scores from Junkie and Sherdog. They gave it to Souza(all except for one guy at sherdog). Anyone watch the fight? I guess Rockhold is pretty damn good.

Rockhold won the last 3 rounds IMO. He is good, but really what happened is that Jacare gassed out badly in Round 2. I don't think he has the tools be UFC champ or anything, he is not that great at any 1 thing. He was doing a good job of anti-grappling Jacare, just fighting off the TDs and standing up when he did get taken down. He was winning the striking, but he got rocked himself several times. He got wobbled right off the bat. Like I said, good, well rounded guy, but Jacare will have a better career IMO. Jacare is a handful for any man for 3 rounds. He kind of sucks at 5 rounds though.

My basic reasoning for shields is that he is a better wrestler/grappler than Ellenberger. Ellenbergers main offense would be his powerful strikes. Shields took Hendos best and still kept moving so he should be able to take whatever ellenberger can dish. Shields has also outwrestled better guys at 185. I think his showing against Kampmann was affected by his cardio. I also think his cardio should be much better now. His dad died, I don't know what effect that will have. I also have the fear he will come out and try to strike. He did that in the GSP fight, I remember the reported asking him why and he basically said " I don't know". However beating Kampmann via wrestling while being completely gassed is no easy feat. Kampmann is good, he did beat a lot of guys at 185. He just couldn't handle Natey nate. At 170 he has only lost to Daley (whos weight is now listed as 176 on wiki) and shields. He basically beat Diego, Thiago, Volkmann and condit. That is pretty damn good. Diego couldn't even take kampann down. I will probably wait for a better line on Shields. Maybe reduced Juice.

I think the line is well set now. I would like Ellenberger at a little better dog odds. It is really hard to say how they will match up grappling. Striking, Ellenberger obviously has more offense. One big advantage to Shields is that he is fine if he gets taken down and even held there. If Shields gets Ellenberger down for any length of time, he is probably toast.

[edman5555]

Yeah Mckenzie's standup is very good but who knows what Rochas is like. Cerrone didn't let Rocha touch him. Grappler vs Grappler and Rocha is the better one. But like you guys I am hesitant to bet him because he is new and we haven't seen much of him. That one guy he lost to beside Cerrone is pretty good though. Brett Bergmark is his name. Anyways, I will probably bet Rocha if i can get him at +0dds. Which might happen..

Shields- Ellenberger. My original though was to bet shields huge here because I figure he can dominate Ellenberger on the ground. That is what I thought about Souza-Rockhold though, I turned out to be wrong there though. I read scores from Junkie and Sherdog. They gave it to Souza(all except for one guy at sherdog). Anyone watch the fight? I guess Rockhold is pretty damn good.

My basic reasoning for shields is that he is a better wrestler/grappler than Ellenberger. Ellenbergers main offense would be his powerful strikes. Shields took Hendos best and still kept moving so he should be able to take whatever ellenberger can dish. Shields has also outwrestled better guys at 185. I think his showing against Kampmann was affected by his cardio. I also think his cardio should be much better now. His dad died, I don't know what effect that will have. I also have the fear he will come out and try to strike. He did that in the GSP fight, I remember the reported asking him why and he basically said " I don't know". However beating Kampmann via wrestling while being completely gassed is no easy feat. Kampmann is good, he did beat a lot of guys at 185. He just couldn't handle Natey nate. At 170 he has only lost to Daley (whos weight is now listed as 176 on wiki) and shields. He basically beat Diego, Thiago, Volkmann and condit. That is pretty damn good. Diego couldn't even take kampann down. I will probably wait for a better line on Shields. Maybe reduced Juice.

[MMA_scientist]

Mckenzie came up in competition bjj. He is decent all around grappler and he was getting his head snapped back repeatedly by Edwards in that fight. He had a brief moment in the second round on the mat, but Yves just made a big mistake. Rocha got Cerrone down several times, but could not keep him there. I think Cody will want to go to the ground. He is not going to get a superior position on Rocha most likely, but he could possibly lock up that choke if Rocha gets cocky. I think the odds that he does it are slim though and I think Rocha will beat him standing or on the mat. Rocha will probably submit him. I looked at Rocha before the Cerrone fight and I thought he had a good chance in that fight. He ended up getting shut out, but I think he has enough for Cody.

I am not saying McKenzie would be a bad bet at +odds. I am assuming that Rocha will only be a small favorite.

[poopoo333]

I think it will depend on Yang's cardio and T3D, if that is OK then I think he has a legit shot.

The idea of Shamar Bailey getting a wrestling decision is in the back of my mind, but it probably won't happen and I think Dunham should win this fight. But personally I hate betting against top control guys.

I am hoping to get Waldburger as an underdog, he is very active on the mat and Daniel Roberts is a gasser.

McKenzie showed some OK stuff against Yves Edwards, and Rocha is a guy that seems to have poor TDs based on the Cerrone fight. It'll probably be close but I'd bet McKenzie at + odds for a small play. This is probably dumb, convince me otherwise.

Justin Edwards is a top control wrestler but he cost me in his last fight because he went under cardiac arrest in the middle of the fight.


Right now I just have 5u on Shields.

[MMA_scientist]

Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger- I like Shields here, but that is based on the assumption that he goes back to "desperate for takedown" Shields. I really think that a lot of these grapplers are better when they only have the takedown and no other option. Maia is the same way, he was better when it was all takedowns all the time IMO. If Shields comes out and tries to K1 him, Ellenberger could easily win. Probably a no bet for me.

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald- Belcher is a better all around fighter, but just on principle I will be on JMac at the current line. Belcher has been out for a long time, he can't see, and he has been submitted by lesser grapplers before.

Evan Dunham vs. Shamar Bailey- I like Dunham, but Bailey is probably a better wrestler. He could not take Chris Cope down, he is probably not going to be able to take Dunham down. BUt his line will probably be stupid.

Dongi Yang vs. Court McGee- Don't know anything about Yang. McGee is not that good IMO though.

Erik Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins- Tough fight to call, Brookins standup is really bad. He has solid takedowns, but Koch has solid wrestling himself. Brookins has made some other wrestlers look like newbs, but I have to think Koch will win this.

Anthony Waldburger vs. Daniel Roberts- grappler/grappler matchup. Roberts probably has slightly better wrestling, but I have been burned on Roberts too many times. He is not as good as I thought he was. Toss up IMO.

Ken Stone vs. Donny Walker-

Cody McKenzie vs. Vagner Rocha- Rocha should win. McKenzie isn't UFC level IMO.

Matt Riddle vs. Lance Benoist- Haven't looked at Benoist yet.

Jorge Lopez vs. Justin Edwards- Edwards is the Randy Couture look alike that was on TUF. Need info on Lopez.

Seth Baczynski vs. Clay Harvison- Two C level guys battling it out. A) Who gives a shit; B) Who knows who will win. Probably Seth by being more well rounded.

Robert Peralta vs. Mike Lullo- I have no idea. Peralta is the guy that beat Takaya a while back, Lullo is the guy that drew Edson Barboza in his debut. Lullo seems to be a better grappler, and Peralta is a short notice replacement. I will go with Lullo.


This is a terrible undercard. Thoughts on the fights? Anything stand out? The two fights that stand out in terms of "seeing" the fight for me are Dunham/Bailey and Rocha/McKenzie.

[zY|]

The trolls are thick in here tonight

Sarcasm is not trolling.

[poopoo333]

poopoo u like brookins in this one? hes gonna be a huge dog. probably around plus 300

I doubt that. But if he is +300 I will bet it for sure.