UFN 25: Battle on the Bayou 9/17

[MMA_scientist]

Anyone know anything at all about Yang? Aside from he lost a split to Camozzi? I read the pbp on that, sounds like Court may be able to dictate where the fight goes.

[MMA_scientist]

Bunch of fights that could go either way.

Anyone have any strong feelings about any thing here aside from Rocha and Koch?

[SPX]

Card sucks for betting.

[Vandelay]

I kinda like Stone in his fight. He looked good against Jorgensen and Walker lost his last fight against houghland. Surprised he even got a second chance. I will admit I dont know much about either fighter tho

[trotterz]

I am pretty confident that Ellenberger won't submit Shields, and that Bailey won't submit Dunham .... but that's about it for the magic parlay as I can see it. and the odds for it would be stupid and not worth it

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, there won't be a magic parlay on this one.

I will probably not Ellenberger to my 2011 parlay though. I doubt we will get a line for Bailey/Dunham props since it is undercard.

[Vandelay]

Props are up for distance of all 4 bouts. and full props up for shields fight. Not ellenberger by sub is ard -17000 and not shields by tko is around -9000

[MMA_scientist]

Not Ellenberger by sub was -4800 earlier when I said that. Sideloaded tippped them off. That is what I keep saying about these prop lines... sometimes even at -3000 there is value.


Svino, is there a difference between the line going from -4800 to -17000 and a line going from -200 to -700? I mean obviously the lines are steeper, but assuming I have the patience and bankroll management to wait it out, would there be a difference?

[Svino]

Svino, is there a difference between the line going from -4800 to -17000 and a line going from -200 to -700? I mean obviously the lines are steeper, but assuming I have the patience and bankroll management to wait it out, would there be a difference?

Sorry, I'm afraid I don't understand the question. Are you asking if it's possible for there to be useful value on extremely steep favorites? If so, it does get to the point where you have to question its usefulness, considering that -170000 is only about half a percent return, even given true odds of 100%. And to bet on it, you're trying to determine probabilities to an accuracy of under half a percent, which is plausible if you're stringing a chain of events or something, but seems unlikely for a single fight outcome. So I personally wouldn't touch it.

[MMA_scientist]

No, I am not talking about that. I really don't know how to ask the question in the right terms since I never made it past algebra...

Basically what I am asking is in terms of "value" is there any difference between a a small favorte going for -200 to -600 and a large favorite going from -2000 to -6000. I mean, if the line goes from -2000 to -6000, and we assuming the final line is correct in both cases, is that the same thing... Sorry I am so retarded that I cannot even frame the question properly...

[Vandelay]

Your going from a supposed 66.6% chance to win to a 85.7% chance in -200 to -600. From -2000 to -6000 it goes from 95.2 to 98.3. So its about a 19 percent difference in part A to a 3 percent difference in part B. So technically their is a much greater disparity in -200 to -600

[MMA_scientist]

Perfect. That is what I was asking... but could not even create the tought in my mind correctly. It is moments like these that I truly thank god I am so damn good looking, because there is no way I could make it on my brain power.

Now that you have said it, it is as clear as day and I feel stupid for asking. I will jst pull a sideloaded and play it off as a troll.

insert trollface.jpg

[Svino]

Just to put numbers in, if we assume the final odds are correct:

In the first case (-200 to -600), a Kelly bet would be 57% on bankroll and result in an expected growth of 9.9%

Second case (-2000 to -6000), a Kelly bet would be 66%, but would only have an expected growth of 1.4%.

I guess the thing to remember is that apparent similarity in ratio is just misleading because the Moneyline format is an abomination and you should always use decimal odds or percentages when doing anything mathematical or conceptual with odds.

[Vandelay]

No one wants your complicated, fancy terms and calculations svino. Your taking all my glory.

[Luke]

No one wants your complicated, fancy terms and calculations svino. Your taking all my glory.