UFC 139

[poopoo333]

Pulled the trigger on RDA/Tibau over 2.5 rds and Castillo/Bailey over 2.5 rds @-200 each

[poopoo333]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDmOkb0cw-Y

[MMA_scientist]

GL tonight fellas. I won't be around most likely.

[poopoo333]

I will be with Luke @ BWW when the spike prelims start

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be watching my Son's team get blown out by #2 team in the state.

[Svino]

Question...how are Tibau's takedowns compared to Guida and Tyson Griffin? RDA seems to have decent T3D...I think he might be able to beat Tibau now that I have looked at it. He should definitely win on the feet. Does Tibau gas? IIRC he slows down sometimes, he might be able to grind out round 1 but if he loses some steam I see RDA stuffing him and picking him apart. I won't even be surprised to see RDA getting some takedowns.

Tibau's takedowns are better than Griffin's. I do find his somewhat weak performance against Pellegrino a bit concerning. I do think he can probably get the TD's on RDA, though.

[MMA_scientist]

^ pretty much my thoughts. RDA gasses too IIRC. My main concern about that fighht is if RDA turns the tables on his and gets a takedown of his own. RDA has good takedowns.

[edman5555]

its a close one. Too hard to pick IMO. I ended up taking hendo, bonnar, wandy and lawlor. I picked against Le because he has been out a year, is old and has relatively little MMA experience. I don't think Wandy is that shot, most of his losses have been at light heavyweight and heavyweight. I still think he is game.

Bonnar has been doing well recently and IMO is a better fighter than Kingsbury. The only thing Kingsbury has on his side is size. I don't think that will be enough. Bonnar is pretty damned big himself. I also give Bonnar the striking and jitz advantage. Getting him at Udog odds is a plus.

Lawlor - He is more experienced, has decent takedown D and may have better hands. Good deal at +265.

Hendo- wrestling advantage, hot streak, could (maybe) win the standup. Udog

I went with a lot of dogs because I thought they all had a very good shot at winning.

[edman5555]

opted out of the fav bets, Torres, Bader, Faber, Castillo because they all are up against decent opponents and I don't know much about Nick Pace.

[Svino]

Looks like we're getting live bet props on Shogun vs. Hendo for:
Who will land the most takedowns?
Who will land the most total strikes?
Who will land the most leg kicks?

I looked at their last 6 fights for approximate leg kick data (keep in mind fight lengths):

Hendo's leg kicks landed:
vs. Fedor: 3 (opened with leg kick)
vs. Feijao: 4
vs. Sobral: 0
vs. Shields: 1 (in first 3 rounds)
vs. Bisping: 2
vs. Franklin: 11 (opened with LK)

Rua's leg kicks landed:
vs. Griffin 2: 0
vs. Jones: 1
vs. Machida 2: 4 (opened with LK)
vs. Machida: Lots
vs. Liddell: 5 (opened with LK)
vs. Coleman: 9 (opened with LK)

[edman5555]

where did you get those stats from?

[Svino]

Those are my own counts, so errors are possible.

[SPX]

Anyone listen to the roundtable for this shit?

[Ludo]

Anyone listen to the roundtable for this shit?

Negative.

[Svino]

Anyone listen to the roundtable for this shit?

Yeah, I did.