UFC 140

[MMA_scientist]

Just went to bet Hamman at -240, and I will be damned if he wasn't -220. Lucky snag.

[Svino]

Damn, I hate to bet against Johnny-Bones, but with Machida's line at +425 and still climbing, I'm actually starting to get tempted.

Machida is a different enough fighter that I think it should be hard to ever make him too much of an underdog, since he's usually matched with guys who have never fought anyone quite like him before.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, +425 is appealing

[Mr. IWS]

D
Machida is a different enough fighter that I think it should be hard to ever make him too much of an underdog, since he's usually matched with guys who have never fought anyone quite like him before.

This is my feeling too. Im gonna throw 25 bucks on him for the hell of it.

[SPX]

I feel dumb now for taking Machida at +275.

[SPX]

For what it's worth, Jordan Breen thinks Makdessi will beat Hallman, but that Hallman is a decent bet at +140.

He also thinks Jabouin is going to smash Watson.

[poopoo333]

What's Breen's record in picks for 2011? Links to his predictions of other cards?

[SPX]

I dunno the stats and I'm not sure his picks are written down anywhere. I always hear it either on the SD Roundtable or the Jordan Breen Show. But he usually does well enough that I've come to respect his opinion. In fact, I just put 1.75u on Jabouin even though I don't know shit about Watson.

[Svino]

I was planning on betting Makdessi, but that was back when I thought I would be getting him at +odds.

[Vandelay]

full props up. you like anything in magic parlay form scientist?

Kinda like Jung/Hominick to win fight of night.

[MMA_scientist]

No, there is nothing I like at the odds offered. You really can't rule anything out with Hominick/Zombie. I really don't want a sub prop bet on Mir/Nog either. I don't think Machida will submit Jones, and I don't think Nog will submit Tito. You could do "Not Machida/Mir/lil Nog/Ebersole by sub" @ -262. But I am sitting this card out for magic parlays, too many submission guys. I mean, every guy on the main card is very good at submissions and/or defense.

[MMABuddha]

This is what I wrote about Machida/Jones elsewhere. Obviously it's very close but I think Machida has enough ways to victory that he can pull off the upset. At +425 that's a pretty juicy line.

This is probably one of the fights I’ve been looking forward to the most all year. Jon Jones is facing his sternest test in Machida. I think Shogun was a shot fighter when they fought and I think Rampage is simply too one-dimensional. Machida on the other hand has many weapons, is a smart fighter and can handle himself on the ground as well. In addition, like Jon Jones Machida has very good timing and can move in and out of trouble. The difference that rather than move straight back and out of harm’s way, Machida is much more likely to throw a shot and be an effective counterfighter before moving away. He’s good at moving his head in the pocket and firing back a shot and then moving away as opposed to strict running away to get out of danger. I think he’s better at throwing power shots than Jones because he’s far better at turning his hips and utilizing his fully body behind each shot. This is why he’s dropped far more fighters than Jones. Something else that’s underrated about Machida that should come into play here is his ability to drop and hurt fighters when fighting on the inside, or when dealing with the bulrush. He’s very good at timing someone who rushes in on him and sidestepping while hitting them with something. While Jones will have the reach and want to fight on the outside, if Jones tries to clinch up which is very possible considering he’s tried to do it in every fight, he will have to watch out for that.

Machida has flaws though, and many of them play into Jones’ hands. His ability to move out of the way in the pocket and fire back leaves him exposed because he never does it with sound form. He’s always wide open and off balance in some way or another, and someone with the length of Jones can easily catch him while he’s on the wrong foot. While Jones is not the best puncher (see more in the Jon Jones’ technical ability question) he’s still extremely calm in the ring and can pick up on things fairly quickly as a result. Also, Jon Jones still has a very devastating top game on the ground, with solid control and bone bruising GnP. Still, I just don’t think that he will be able to pull any of his flashy moves off against a guy who has probably seen it already.

I think this fight depends on Lyoto’s gameplan. If he plays it safe, judging the distance with leg kicks before moving in and out, he can win this fight. He’s a very hard straight puncher, and while sometimes he has the tendency to stick his head up when moving in, I think his timing and movement are too good to really pay the price, even with the reach disadvantage. I also don’t think Jones has the power, nor does he have the MMA wrestling to consistently take Lyoto down. Even if he does, we’re not talking about Quinton Jackson who is a turtle off of his back. Lyoto is a legit BJJ black belt with a nasty top game and a very serviceable, defensively sound guard. I think Jones is too raw to deal with the tools that Machida has to offer, but those are written in detail in the question about Jones’ technical ability. Lyoto has trashed inferior strikers with superior reach in the past, and while none have been as good or as long as Jones, I think with his elusive style he doesn’t depend on reach to hit the mark on the feet. Combine that with the fact that Jones’ chin is still in question and Lyoto has a far better chance to win this fight than the oddsmakers are giving him.

I will probably catch heat for this after the fact if Jones blows him out but taking into account everything I said I think Lyoto has more ways to win and Jones’ best chances at victory play right into Machida’s defensive strengths. I’m going to pick Machida to win by TKO sometime in the fourth. If Jones has a great chin on him than I see it going to a decision, but I’m pretty comfortable picking Machida.

[MMA_scientist]

Thanks for the write up. I agree that Machida is tempting @ +425.

Only thing I disagree with is that Jones doesn't have the MMA wrestling to take Machida down. I think Machida will have an edge standing too, but I think Jones will take him down if he wants. To me, the fight depends on Jones' gameplan, not Machida's. If Jones comes to wrestle, he should win. If he wants to show off his striking, he is playing into Machida's game and could lose, especially if he tires out late in the fight.

I think Jones has more outs and that Machida pretty much has to hope that Jones fights dumb (which he may). I don't know how good Machida's guard is... he swept Sokodjou, but that is really all I have seen of it. I know he is a bjj bb, but that doesn't mean his guard is awesome. He definitely has a good top game though.

[SPX]

Nice writeup. Feel free to stop in and post more often.

And you at least convinced me to go ahead and drop another half-unit on Machida at his current line.

Personally, I think the most likely result is another dominant win for Jones (just because he has seemed so unstoppable) but I'm with everyone else who says that if anyone IS going to give Jones trouble, it's Machida. I first took Machida at +275 because I thought that same thought process would cause money to come in on him even then. So I agree that there SEEMS to be value in Machida right now.

[SPX]

I don't know how good Machida's guard is... he swept Sokodjou, but that is really all I have seen of it. I know he is a bjj bb, but that doesn't mean his guard is awesome. He definitely has a good top game though.

I was wondering about this, too. Machida almost never ends up on his back. In fact I can't remember him ever spending any appreciable amount of time working from his back.