Tuesday 5/6/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Thistledown - Race #4

#3 Gamboling Ghost	He has been doing his recent work going long, but he might be quick enough to factor up front today while turning back against a group without much serious pace. Could get the right kind of run to land this.
#6 Sweet as Sin	He's probably a handful with his better stuff while trying to transfer that midlevel Oaklawn claiming form into a local allowance spot. The race shapes up nicely for him to prompt the pace from the start.
#5 Coastertothemoon	Tactical speed might be a little cheap for this group, but he'll rise off the claim with a really good local debut under his belt in that score last out. Enough to like, just worried that his ceiling isn't quite as high as the top pair.
Race Summary	Gamboling Ghost has some cutback pace that should leave him in a pretty good spot near the top here, and the price might stay just playable if the runner outside takes a bit of cash.

Thistledown - Race #6

#6 Gut Instinct	There's no serious early burn lined up in this spot, so the front end looks there for the taking for this guy. He has some tables to turn here, but he might be able to dig a bit deeper if he doesn't take too much heat early.
#5 Photo Hop	Not quite sure how he's going to stack up with these, but I'm never that mad about a rise like this off the claim, and he could be in line for a perfect first-jump trip if the top choice starts to cough it up.
#4 Charleston	He has been very good locally in the past, and the hope is the change of scenery to return here will wake him up a bit -- the Oaklawn form was pretty terrible the whole way this season, and I wouldn't be excited to take too short a price.
Race Summary	Gut Instinct might offer just a touch better price today than in some of those recent races, and he looks like the controlling tempo from the outside with this small group. Could be gone.

Thistledown - Race #8

#9 Val's Twinstar	There are a few other forward players lined up who could make things tough for her, but there's a chance she's the most committed pace early and pushes this along the entire way.
#11 It's E Z	Cutback player has some decent sprint runs on her page, and she is quick enough to find a good spying spot while keeping tabs on the top choice. Wide trip seems possible, but that could keep her out of trouble.
#6 Tierney	She's another with a touch of pace who could be in the frame early on here, and she exits a race won by a horse who has a pretty high ceiling on her better days. Obvious player.
Race Summary	Val's Twinstar comes back fresh from the November layoff today, and she has the kind of pace that can be dangerous in a spot like this if she is able to discourage some of the other forward players.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#1 PONTIAC (7-2)	Can maximize his speed from the rail in repeat try for barn that re-claimed him.
#4 TWENTYEIGHTTOTHREE (8-5)	Just missed at notch above, tries to end year-long winless drought.
#8 PATRIARCHAL (2-1)	Didn’t duplicate big effort from two starts ago going a route of ground.
Race Summary	Class droppers abound in this nw/3 long sprint, but it’s class riser PONTIAC who get the call after he hustled to the lead at 6-1/2F last out and kept the pursuing favorite in the rearview mirror. If he avoids a duel with HAP’S VICTORY to his outside, he can control the pace from the rail. Bet to win and place and play 1-4 and 1-8 exactas.

Parx - Race #2

#5 DOROTHY’S THE BOSS (9	Finished 1-2 in 3 of last 5 at this distance on fast track, needs alert start.
#6 FAST MULE (3-1)	Worked 5F bullet for return from freshening and ran third behind odds-on winner.
#3 LIAM’S KISS (2-1)	First or second in 13 of 21 starts, but latest at this level wasn’t among them.
Race Summary	DOROTHY’S THE BOSS, eligible for this spot by a week, tries to upstage a pair of recent runner-up finishes. She rallied into slow middle fractions and couldn’t reach LIAM’S MAP, today’s morning-line favorite, then she overcame fractious gate behavior to advance 4-wide into the stretch at 1 mile 70 yards last out. Bet to win and place and play a 5-3 daily double.

Parx - Race #3

#3 AWESOME FOR SURE (8-5)	Can’t go beyond today’s Best Bet if he runs back to latest victory.
#1 NIFTY (3-1)	Gained on turn, ran third at distance which he earned more than half of $467k bankroll.
#2 WIZARD SERRAT (5-2)	Stands 11/5-2-1 at this level since last July.
Race Summary	AWESOME FOR SURE class-dropped to this level after a voided vet claim in the race prior and ran away with his sixth win in 18 starts to eclipse $100,000 in earnings. He cuts back from 7F to 6F but still figures close-up and tough to beat in a field that lacks speed. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 2	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $13,700 • Post: 1:29P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * IMPERMANENCE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. IMALOTTALADY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLO RALOATS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. POSITIVELY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4	IMPERMANENCE	2/1	9/2
3	IMALOTTALADY	7/2	6/1
5	FLORALOATS	8/1	7/1
2	POSITIVELY	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	POSITIVELY	2	5/1	Stalker	56	51	38.0	50.2	43.7
5	FLORALOATS	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	53	51	57.5	47.7	43.2
3	IMALOTTALADY	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	60	59	49.8	52.6	47.6
1	JOURNEY OF FIVE	1	5/2	Trailer	59	53	47.6	48.6	42.6
6	JOYFUL DEPARTURE	6	10/1	Trailer	55	52	25.2	38.8	28.8
4	IMPERMANENCE	4	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	56	57	49.2	47.6	41.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 4	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / (.50) Pick 5 (Races 4-8)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 2:41P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * GRANDSONSAM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BUTCHY BOY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FETCHS BRAHM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	GRANDSONSAM	4/5	3/1
6	BUTCHY BOY	4/1	7/1
4	WINDTAPPER WIN	12/1	9/1
3	FETCHS BRAHM	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BUTCHY BOY	6	4/1	Stalker	64	54	56.5	52.9	44.4
4	WINDTAPPER WIN	4	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	63	52.6	52.6	45.1
1	GRANDSONSAM	1	4/5	Alternator/Stalker	78	77	39.4	66.6	62.6
3	FETCHS BRAHM	3	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	57.6	49.4	43.4
2	SHARP AS DAMASCUS	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	62	49.6	49.6	43.1
5	WORK ZONE	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	59	45.8	45.8	34.8
7	LEGEND'S JOURNEY	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	43	41.0	41.0	30.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19400 Class Rating: 35

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 6 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 WINDY VALLEY 9/5
# 1 HALO EFFECT 15/1
# 3 COWGIRLS HUMOR 15/1

My choice in here is WINDY VALLEY.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #6 - Post: 6:25pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#4 NERVY (ML=3/1)
#2 LOUDTHUNDRHEVYRAIN (ML=2/1)
#1 CLASSIC WARRIOR (ML=9/2)


NERVY - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front runner facing sluggish sorts today. This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be favorable. LOUDTHUNDRHEVYRAIN - Another way to evaluate class is earnings per start. This horse has the uppermost in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line. CLASSIC WARRIOR - This gelding's last speed figure is strong enough to win here, I'll bet on him right back in today's event. This gelding faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Look at this pattern of improvement. 57/65/68 are the last 3 speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 JAMAICAN ME (ML=4/1), #5 HEZA SEXY ZONG (ML=5/1), #3 IRON MOON (ML=6/1),

JAMAICAN ME - This animal likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Don't put in the top spot. When checking today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. HEZA SEXY ZONG - This animal hasn't been in the mix in either of his last couple of races. This gelding is always hitting the board, but just doesn't win. Hard to bet on him on the win end. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's event. IRON MOON - That was merely not a very good display in the last race. I find it hard to invest in this entrant this time around. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you play him in a race of 6 furlongs. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - NERVY - When a fine animal takes such a big drop in the class figure department, I always have a look-see. I like what I see with this one and am betting on him.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 NERVY on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,100 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#1 THIS ONE CAN RUN (ML=5/1)


THIS ONE CAN RUN - Racing over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this thoroughbred at the top of my list of choice plays. A repeat of that last performance on November 25th where she garnered a figure of 73 looks lofty enough to prove victorious in this clash.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LADY JEAN (ML=3/1), #3 BAREBACK FUN (ML=9/2), #9 ICE FLOE (ML=5/1),

LADY JEAN - Didn't land in the top three on April 22nd after the long vacation. Be doubtful of this horse today. BAREBACK FUN - The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. ICE FLOE - This mare gave a less than rousing performance last time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - THIS ONE CAN RUN - Despite what others may say, some horses run much better off an extended layoff. This one has been off 161 days, and in similar circumstances in the past, has run nicely.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 THIS ONE CAN RUN on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $43000 Class Rating: 81

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 TIZ EDDIE 9/5
# 3 COMMANDO JOE 8/1
# 6 GIMMEETHREESTEPS 5/2

I think TIZ EDDIE is a strong choice. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been quite good - 77 avg - of late. This pony has a wonderful win percentage in dirt sprints. Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest. COMMANDO JOE - Over time, this conditioner has a competitive return on investment at this distance/surface. Could best this field based on the speed rating - 80 - of his last affair. GIMMEETHREESTEPS - Has been running soundly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Win percentage one of the most competitive in this group.