Wednesday 5/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:38 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | May 7

May 7, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

The illustrious Run for the Roses has come and gone, and the countdown to Preakness is on! In the meantime, a handful of cards from the Pearl of the Orient still decorate the track list and I’m still chasing the tickets to make my day. Let’s take some swings on this Happy Valley Wednesday!

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – May 7

Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.

Race 1 | 1650M | Class 5
Win - 6

Notes: 6 – TATTENHAM is in an odd pattern, finishing within striking distance in three of his last four starts that include a try on the all-weather surface at Sha Tin. The power ratings favor 3 – THE KHAN, but only by a half of a point. I find our top choice to be much better suited for the mile distance and fair pace setup we should see. Let’s bet to win.

Race 2 | 1000M | Class 5
Exacta Key Box – 7 w/ 4,12

Notes: There are two short prices in this field that are deserving of taking some money in the Win pool. 4 – RAGNARR and 12 – ACE TALENT are formidable foes in this five furlong dash. The Power Ratings have found a darling at 16/1 in 7 – MODEST GENTLEMAN, so much so that he tops my chart. Looking at the form, I have no reason to think our short prices aren’t firmly in the mix, so we’ll play to crash the board with a price in the exacta.

Race 3 | 2200M | Class 4
Win – 1
Exacta Box – 1,3
Trifecta – 1,3 / 8 / 1,3

Notes: I’ve played this top choice before, and as the name suggests, we CAN’T GO WONG again here. At 15/2 under the guidance of jockey Matthew Poon, 1 – CAN’T GO WONG is primed and ready to go the extra distance in this marathon of a race. His last two outings have needed some extra track, and finally he gets what he wants. Alongside him, I like 3 – SERANGOON at 11/1 who has shown more than enough to get it done going this far. We’ll play for the exacta and split the tri with the ML favorite.

Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - 3

Notes: Top choice 3 – LOVEISINTHEAIR is the highest rated horse in the Power Ratings, runs for the trainer with the top winning percentage in the field (John Size), gets a top-tier mount in Hugh Bowman, and that’s enough for me to play to win.

Race 7 | 1650M | Class 4
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 2,4,5
Quinella Box – 2,4,5

Notes: The strategy for betting this race sort of flies in the face of what I would typically preach, but the situation in this race makes it where a price can be had even if we have to overlap some ideas. 1 – IVY LEAGUE is my top pick and second choice on the morning line at 3/1. I’m anticipating a bit lower odds at post time, but we can play with some prices in the exacta and hopefully turn a big payout. The Power Ratings have three well-priced runners following our top choice, and not by much. For that reason, I want to play a quinella in case it’s bombs away.

Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3
Win – 1
Exacta – 1,10 w/ 1,10,7

Notes: 1 – M UNICORN is firmly my top choice in the Power Ratings, and at 15/2 on the morning line I think he’s well worth a play to win. Next up in the chart is 10 – LUCKY TOUCH at 10/1 with leading jockey Zac Purton in the irons. Not loved by the numbers, but certainly looking good on paper, is morning line favorite 7 – HIGHLAND RAHY (2/1). If my top two Power Ratings choices find their way in first and second, I would regret not playing them together and not listening to my own numbers. We’ll play them together and add the short price for some insurance in the second spot.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Swinger – 3,4,9,10

Notes: The card’s finale seems open for upsets, but it’s difficult to really decipher a clear standout from the bunch. More than anything, this is a play against the ML favorite 7 – LUCKY PLANET and an opportunity for multiple scores in one ticket. A Swinger requires bettors to pick two of the top three in any order and pays for each correct combination. We’re going to play in hopes of hitting all three top spots and getting paid on numerous combinations, but even if the 6/5 ML favorite runs to expectations we should be able to fill out the trifecta with two of our better choices.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #2

#4 Destiny's Tot	She is starting to get short on excuses, but there isn't much in here other than chasing and prompting pace, and at least something like that one-paced start in late February at Mahoning would probably play well in today's race shape. Maybe.
#3 Red Stride	She was done early in the debut run, but that came against a better group and can set her up for better today in a race where I don't feel like it's easy to trust anyone with a lot of seriousness.
#1 Stoptalkingsarah	She and the one just outside of her both make sense, but I think they're also going to be the betting leaders in a spot that feels tough to sort.
Race Summary	Destiny's Tot has gotten past horses a couple times, and that could serve her well in a race where most of them tend to head the wrong direction late.

Thistledown - Race #5

#3 Flower Mound	Plenty of respect for the one who beat her last time out, but this one had a tough kind of run that day and could be capable of turning the tables at a mild, but playable, price.
#1 Miss Fussy Pants	She just beat some of these last out and looks like the controlling tempo from the inside again today. Price probably gets shorter today, but she's the one to beat right back.
#4 Sadie the Goat	She has enough positional pace to sit a touch closer than she did last time out, and her believers might get a bit better price today than last time around.
Race Summary	Flower Mound could get just a tiny bit overlooked in here, and she might be able to find a decent spot tracking the rail runner early on. Cleaner go gets her home today?

Thistledown - Race #8

#3 Swayback Mobil	Think his best efforts would give him a chance here at a decent price, and he was pretty reliable here last season. Not the most likely winner, but the price should be right to give him a look today in hopes that a couple of the forward players will soften up late.
#7 Oh Lover Boy	He enters this off a couple of sharp romps, and he draws well to get another similar kind of pressing trip today. The one to beat, but probably at something shorter than the 3/1 ML offering.
#1 So That's That	His better stuff keeps him in the frame here, but I worry that he could be in for a tricky run of things with that tactical pace from the fence.
Race Summary	Swayback Mobil has room to bounce back today after a flat run last out, and he might find a great spot sitting in just behind the pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:41 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #1

#1 WILD NUGGET (3-1)	Dueled inside through quick pace and tired in stretch in repeat attempt.
#3 ENGLISH DADDY (5-1)	Tactical speed comes in handy in this spot, gets first-time Lasix.
#2 BROTHER RICE (2-1)	Poured it on after money poured in for his local and seasonal debut.
Race Summary	WILD NUGGET romped to a maiden victory off a four-month layoff, then dueled through faster fractions to the quarter pole in his next start before the odds-on winner passed by. He draws the rail on a slight class drop and starts off similar rest. Bet to win and place and play 1-2, 1-3 and 3-1 exactas.

Penn National - Race #6

#1 CONCRETE JACK (3-1)	Ranged up 3-wide on turn, appeared to lose action in the lane.
#6 CAPPETTA (6-5)	Towers over field if he duplicates game runner-up finish behind the favorite.
#7 OLLIE BOY (5-1)	Swung 6-wide but was no match for Cappetta, wears blinkers tonight.
Race Summary	CONCRETE JACK took money in his debut for a hot barn, made a 3-wide bid into the turn but stopped abruptly in early stretch. He looks like an all-or-nothing type on the class drop today so make a flat win bet and play 1-6 and 1-7 exactas.

Penn National - Race #7

#3 BITCOIN BABY (4-1)	Parx invader has speed, gets class relief and Lasix, changes riders.
#5 SMART SHERYL LEE (9-5)	Dropped off the claim, just missed after long duel at 5-1/2F.
#4 MYGIRLISABOMB (5-2)	Hard-ridden in 3-path, rallied into photo-finish view.
Race Summary	BITCOIN BABY set the pace from post 9 to mid-turn before coming to a stop at Parx seven weeks ago. Hoping she can carry her speed farther on the class drop with Lasix. The price should be right for a win and place bet and 3-5 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 7	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 7-10) / 10 cent Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 3:26P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. ALLOWED 0 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GREYHOUND STATION is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GREYHOUND STATION: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. AL GIMAAM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	GREYHOUND STATION	5/2	5/2
5	AL GIMAAM	8/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GREYHOUND STATION	6	5/2	Front-runner	65	49	53.6	59.8	57.3
5	AL GIMAAM	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	61	78.5	48.4	42.9
10	SPOOKY GAL	10	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	70.2	37.5	27.0
1	CAROLYN DORIS	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	52	54	65.6	29.6	20.6
4	HURRICANE JANE	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	53	30	48.4	31.8	18.8
9	CAN'T STOP A CHUB	9	9/2	Trailer	46	50	3.4	42.3	36.8
7	LILY'S TIME	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	56	52	61.2	30.0	18.5
2	SANDY GIRL	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	62.9	26.9	13.4

Unknown Running Style: LADY KILLIGREW (6/1) [Jockey: Carmouche Kendrick - Trainer: Riviezzo Ralph R], DITCH THE LOOT (10/1) [Jockey: Radcliffe Anthony - Trainer: Shanley Mark A].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs
PURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 5	Win / Place / Show / Daily Double / Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Speed Index • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 3:33P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 75 AND UNDER OR WITH A SPEED INDEX THAT HAS NEVER BEEN BETTER THAN 80.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ADMIRAL NELSON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUGAR BOY PERRY: Horse ha s the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THE ZING DYNASTY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	ADMIRAL NELSON	3/1	3/1
1	SUGAR BOY PERRY	5/2	9/2
3	THE ZING DYNASTY	5/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SUGAR BOY PERRY	1	5/2	Average	69	66	3.8	0.0	0.0
2	ADMIRAL NELSON	2	3/1	Slow	78	70	8.2	0.0	0.0
3	THE ZING DYNASTY	3	5/1	Average	67	65	5.1	0.0	0.0
4	TOWANDA	4	7/2	Average	56	56	6.0	0.0	0.0
5	CG MEGA SPY	5	10/1	Average	55	50	4.1	0.0	0.0
6	BAR EF RUSHFURRCANDY	6	15/1	Average	60	56	4.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 EGYPTIAN KING 5/2
# 7 ROUNDBALL ROCK 4/1
# 4 EAST FROM WEST 3/1

EGYPTIAN KING is my choice. Solid average Speed Figures in dirt route races make this pony a solid contender. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Speed Figures with an average of 74. Could beat this group given the 79 speed figure recorded in his last outing. ROUNDBALL ROCK - Has run admirably when running a dirt route race. Players should probably feel comfortable with this selection given Serpa's recent gains at the window. EAST FROM WEST - Sharp profits over time for this jock and conditioner combo. He has formidable class ratings, averaging 85, and has to be given a shot in this event.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#10 VECCHI (ML=6/1)
#4 RIGHT ON THE MUNNY (ML=9/2)
#6 DUSTY BILLY (ML=4/1)
#8 TEMPERED DREAM (ML=15/1)

VECCHI - The rest of the field may trail this horse all the way around the track. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by this shorter distance. Radosevich drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more data to believe this horse will be one to beat at this level. RIGHT ON THE MUNNY - Was in the Howard B. Noonan at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last time around the track. That contest had an Equibase class figure of 81 and he is moving down in this race. A certain win candidate. You should discount that last race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in the mud where he finished off the board. Should do well in this field on a fast track. Gorham gets a break on this mount carrying 7 pounds less than last out. Should make the difference today. DUSTY BILLY - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this gelding's PPs. Almost always in the money. Houghton and Bird partnered up are a railbird's friend. This gelding's last fig earned on April 10th is utmost in last race Equibase speed figs. TEMPERED DREAM - Zielinski drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this horse has a good chance at this level. A win percentage like 31 is terrific for any jockey/conditioner duo. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 OH LOVER BOY (ML=3/1), #1 SO THAT'S THAT (ML=5/1), #2 JOHN FITZGERALD (ML=8/1),

OH LOVER BOY - This morning-line choice hasn't motored around the track in awhile. No workouts since last race. SO THAT'S THAT - Even though victorious in last, didn't finish the way you'd like to see when stepping up to face stiffer competition. Not likely for this participant to make a winning move with no recent success in a sprint affair. JOHN FITZGERALD - Not much value on this participant at the likely odds of 8/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 VECCHI is going to be the play if we are getting 6/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:46pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#8 POT'S PAYCHECK (ML=10/1)
#2 HIT SONG (ML=6/1)

POT'S PAYCHECK - If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see she has recorded the top speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this event and this horse has a superb chance to win. HIT SONG - This filly has the top turf rating in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here racer has a good chance. Coming off a fifth place finish at Tampa Bay Downs, some may skip this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has respectable M/L odds today. The recent speed figure of 73 is the highest last race speed fig in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 SAYYOULOVEMEBABY (ML=2/1), #9 SASSI IDOL (ML=5/2), #7 ALL STAR TOUT (ML=5/1),

SAYYOULOVEMEBABY - This morning-line choice may be out of shape without any recent morning drills. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a questionable contender. SASSI IDOL - 67/56/52, are the decreasing speed ratings for this runner. Registered a pedestrian speed figure last time out in a Maiden Special race on April 25th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. ALL STAR TOUT - Tough to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the shot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 POT'S PAYCHECK to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2025, 07:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $22500 Class Rating: 57

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 DOUBLE THE BUX 4/1
# 3 LEAVING YOU LOCO 6/1
# 10 ANGEL PILOT 3/1

DOUBLE THE BUX has a formidable shot to take this race. This filly could improve with second time Lasix. LEAVING YOU LOCO - May wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. With Hernandez uptop her, this filly should be able to break out sharply for this event. ANGEL PILOT - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look.

Wednesday 5/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 5/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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