Thursday 5/8/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Scott Shapiro: Churchill Spot Plays

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May 8, 2025

It is back to action at Churchill Downs for the first time since Derby Day when Sovereignty stole the show in the slop running down Journalism in the final strides. The quality of racing from last weekend will be hard to match for some time, but the great thing is the wagering opportunities remain plentiful. Let’s get hot!


Race 4:

My first play comes in this 5-furlong dash over the turf for MSW company where #2 Restore was made the 5-2-morning line choice by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The Uncle Mo colt figures to run his race, but has failed five times in grass sprints already, twice as the chalk, already.

I much prefer the chances of #6 Modus Bestia. The $500K Maryland-bred tries the lawn for the first time after his Blue Grass State debut at Keeneland last month. The son of Maclean’s Music flashed strong speed from the far outside, but gave way late against a much stronger group than he encounters in this spot. Plus, the cutback from 6.5-furlongs to five-eighths is likely to benefit the Richard Baltas trainee as well. With a clean break, I expect him to be tough to get by in the lane.

Play: #6 Modus Bestia (7-2 ML)



Race 6:

Trainer Mark Casse holds a strong hand in this starter allowance at 6.5-furlongs over the main track with 3-1-favorite #7 Art Fair and 4-1-third choice #6 Bermuda Blitz. Art Fair comes in off of a trio of top two finishes, including last out when he ran second over the slop at Keeneland. The Munnings colt is in obvious great form, but likely benefited from a surface that favored speed last month. I will try to beat him with his stablemate that should get a more favorable trip as well as offer a bit more value.

Bermuda Blitz is familiar with Churchill Downs since his first 3 starts were in Louisville, but the Vekoma gelding was in Arkansas for the winter. He definitely moved forward in Hot Springs with most of his success coming at a route of ground. His last two races at two-turns came against better company than he meets in this one and he should be full of run late on the turnback given the amount of speed signed on. Christian Torres was aboard in his maiden breaker and will get the leg up once again in his first start off a near 2-month freshening.

Play: #6 Bermuda Blitz (4-1 ML)




Race 7:

My final spot play on the card comes in a competitive full-field first-level allowance event at 1 1/16-miles where I expect a big effort from #7 Scattitude in her first start against winners. The Violence filly grinded away a win sprinting over the Fair Grounds sod in late March in a race where she was beaten out of the gate and caught 4-wide on the backstretch, yet still was able to nail the two speeds at the wire. The Barry & Joni Butzow homebred has the look of a filly that should benefit from more ground and attracts Brian Hernandez, Jr, for her first run over this course.


Play: #7 Scatittude (8-1 ML)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Hawthorne - Race #3

#8 Night Blue	She has taken an interesting path to get here from Del Mar and Fonner over the last couple years, but she looks competitive on paper with this local crew. Hoping the presence of the Rivellis will keep the price fair.
#3 Wild Dreams	This team tends to spot them pretty reasonably, and it's tough to ignore anything they send out at this kind of trip. Slight edge of the pair from this barn.
#4 Mary Moonglow	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here, as she's got a couple decent main-track tries to her name already and has the right kind of tactical pace to trip out today. Upside in the second start back.
Race Summary	Night Blue looks like a good fit here after the Fonner comeback run, and she has some reasonable room to come forward after that. Lots to like.

Hawthorne - Race #5

#3 Shady Mcgee	The New Orleans form is nothing to write home about, but he was competitive for similar tags here last year and might be able to wake up today while getting back with a local group.
#7 Bakeneko	He had pretty honest form toward the end of his campaign last year, and he's in the mix with these today if he can pick up where he left off.
#10 Wicked Surprise	Forward player is another with a claim on this if he can fire fresh, as he was pretty honest here last year and isn't meeting a ton of other pace today.
Race Summary	Shady Mcgee has been a decent finisher over the local course in the past, and he has shown just a touch of tactical pace at times that might be useful to find a midpack kind of run today.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#6 Miss River Rat	She might get a really nice setup today in a spot with a few potential forward players. She almost never runs a bad one and can play today if she's ready to roll off the bench.
#1 Cairo Dream	She was very good in her only local start, and she turned in a couple OK efforts in New Orleans this winter. Could see her working out a cozy trip from the fence.
#10 Trail Ridge Road	She's in the mix here with her better stuff, and she handled some of these here last fall. Bit worried that she'll take more cash than she should...
Race Summary	Miss River Rat has some appeal with a good race flow waiting for her, and I'm hoping she'll offer a playable number in what feels like an evenly matched spot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Evangeline Downs - Race #1

#8 USAIN D’ORO (5-2)	Can stalk and pounce on projected lively pace if he handles the turf.
#3 THE PRETTY SISTER (3-1)	Won twice on ‘off’ tracks against LA-breds for this barn, debuts on lawn.
#2 MISS DEALORITY (9-2)	Held second in lone grass start behind late-running longshot.
Race Summary	Most of the contenders in this nw/3 sprint for Louisiana bred fillies and mares are unproven on turf. USAIN D’ORO is one of them, but he won a 5F allowance from just off the pace in the fall and should be in a prime striking spot in this field. He is by Top 20 North America sire Bolt D’Oro and his dam, Blue Orleans, went wire-to-wire in a Maiden Special Weight sprint at Churchill Downs in her second and last start. Bet to win and place and play 3-7 and 8-7 daily doubles.

Evangeline Downs - Race #2

#7 GORDITO HERMOSO (3-1)	At proper level to mount winning rally, today’s Best Bet.
#5 MAJESTIC PALACE (2-1)	Made inside run for third behind pace-pressing rivals at $10k level.
#6 TAP THE TEQUILA (6-1)	Broke maiden two back to become lone 7F winner in today’s lineup.
Race Summary	GORDITO HERMOSO returns to his claim level for the first time this year. He weakened at one mile upon arrival from the Fair Grounds but should be running late, as he did when herded outward by the even-money winner February 6, costing him victory at this level. Bet to win and place and play 7-5 and 7-6 exactas.

Evangeline Downs - Race #3

#1 HOPESHECANRUN (6-1)	Can run to the lead and stay there long way in second start off freshening.
#5 ALEXAPLAYBORNTORUN (5-2).	Beaten fave remains five-time winner versus mostly nw/4 types.
#2 PINK LADY LU SHA (9-2)	Angled out for stretch drive, some late interest, must stay in closer contact.
Race Summary	HOPESHECANRUN chased the 3-to-5 winner around the track and held second in the same spot. She should be the target from the rail tonight and is worth a win and place bet at 6-1 on the morning line. Also play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 5	Exacta/Trifecta (.50)/Superfecta (.10 min.)/Daily Double (Races 5-6)($1 min.) Pick 3 (Races 5-7)/Pick 4 (Races 5-8)
Maiden • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 66 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 7:59P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. (1ST PREFERENCE TO HORSES WHICH ARE PAID UP TO DATE IN THE FIRECRACKER FUTURITY)(2ND PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $20,000 IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SISTAWOMAN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	SISTAWOMAN	2/1	4/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SISTAWOMAN	2	2/1	Average	63	64	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	KISSOFDEATH	3	3/1	Fast	0	0	2.7	0.0	0.0
6	ONE SWEET LIL PATSY	6	10/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: VANISH THRU THE FIRE (9/2) [Jockey: Rodriguez Leonardo - Trainer: Keith Lanny], ROGUEANITO (8/1) [Jockey: Garcia Jr Juan F - Trainer: Solis-Guevara Ismael], JTF LOVE CHICK (6/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Rene - Trainer: Clemons Patric

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race 12	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Late Daily Double
Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 73 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 9:57P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ARGYLES: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post positio n next to it gets out of the gate fast. SHES THE PRIZE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LEAVE EM BEHIN D: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	ARGYLES	6/1	5/2
8	SHES THE PRIZE	7/2	5/1
3	LEAVE EM BEHIND	9/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	ARGYLES	2	6/1	Fast	68	75	2.0	0.0	0.0
3	LEAVE EM BEHIND	3	9/2	Average	74	55	4.0	0.0	0.0
4	IVORY BIRD	4	20/1	Slow	0	0	6.9	0.0	0.0
5	EYES ON DA PRIZE	5	20/1	Average/Trouble-prone	0	0	5.4	0.0	0.0
6	SEND ME A DYNASTY HG	6	15/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	PERSONALITI	7	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	SHES THE PRIZE	8	7/2	Fast	74	59	1.1	0.0	0.0
9	UT HITMAN	9	15/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: ROKKET MAN (6/5) [Jockey: Pulido Juan - Trainer: Alcala Cristian].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:14pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#3 WHEN YOUR STRANGE (ML=5/2)
#4 SANSA ARIEL (ML=2/1)


WHEN YOUR STRANGE - I like when a thoroughbred wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this filly to win again. Cruised home victorious as she wired the field just recently at Penn National. A quick turn around to potentially do it again in this field. You have to bet this horse at a racetrack she likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race. SANSA ARIEL - Really figure this horse is going to be on the money at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BELLA PRIMA (ML=5/2), #1 ARUMA (ML=3/1), #5 JACK'S LILLY (ML=8/1),

BELLA PRIMA - Improbable that the speed figure she notched on Mar 20th will be good enough in this race. ARUMA - This vulnerable equine will probably need at least one more start after the lackluster showing following the extended layoff. JACK'S LILLY - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a sprint event to be worth the chance at short odds in a sprint. Hasn't been getting close at all recently. Most unsatisfactory speed figure in the last race at Penn National at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this questionable contender will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WHEN YOUR STRANGE - This filly has the greatest last speed figure at Penn National. Must be considered in your speculating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 WHEN YOUR STRANGE to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 75

OUTER TURF FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 COUSIN ED 3/1
# 16 OMAHA PISTOL 7/5
# 13 HARD PAR 5/1

COUSIN ED has a decent shot to take this race. The speed figure of 79 from his latest affair looks solid in here. Has to be carefully examined against this group of horses displaying competitive figs recently and an average speed rating of 70 under similar conditions. Competitive jockey and handler combo winning 35 percent of their races working together. HARD PAR - His 73 average has this gelding with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figures for this race. Ought to be given a shot for this event if only for the strong speed figure recorded in the last competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9200 Class Rating: 33

FOR NATIVE FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. 2# A INFERIORES Y DEBTS ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $27,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 LIBRE Y SOBERANA 2/1
# 3 ZAPPER MOON 3/1
# 8 SULLY'S LEGEND 10/1

I think LIBRE Y SOBERANA is a very strong choice. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Look for a strong effort with the class drop. Diaz has been sizzling the last month, winning at a nifty 33 percent clip. ZAPPER MOON - Figueroa has been sizzling the last month, winning at a nifty 26 percent rate. SULLY'S LEGEND - Calderon has her trained solidly to break rapidly out of the starting gate. Expect a strong performance with the class drop.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:05pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#5 ACTING DEBUT (ML=3/1)


ACTING DEBUT - Ran last out against a better field at Turfway Park. The move down in class ranks should suit him well. This gelding's last speed figure is lofty enough to triumph here, I'll wager on him right back this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BROGUE (ML=2/1), #3 ONLY THE GOOD (ML=7/2), #4 COLLATOR (ML=4/1),

BROGUE - This probable favorite probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Skip him today. ONLY THE GOOD - Didn't show much run last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's event. COLLATOR - I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with morning line odds of 4/1. Pace makes the race and the lack of pace means this come from behinder will have to rally without any help.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 ACTING DEBUT on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass