Sunday 5/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:28 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/11/25

May 11, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Sunday, May 11, 2024
Santa Anita Park

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Bro Bro; 1-The Schillelagh.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Bo Bro exits a much stronger race, stretches out for the first time and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. He’s won over this turf course in the past and has breezed very well since raced. The Schillelagh is a strong fit on numbers and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his good rail draw. He’ll be doing his best work late.

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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Go Cami Oh; 6-Smokem Hot Girl.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Go Cami Oh plummets in class seeking her winning level and at this modest maiden $12,500 league may have found her friends. She’s a fit on numbers and the stretch out in trip should be within her range. Smokem Hot Girl was an okay second in a slowly run race in her debut over this track and distance in March and certainly has a right to produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind her.

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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Eye On Ry.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Eye On Ry, scratched out of yesterday’s Siren Lure Stakes for this much more realistic spot, has been below his best form of late but is fast on figures and appears to have found a proper spot to snap back. He’s a bit of a one-paced grinder but projects to inherit a good ground-saving, stalking trip and have his every chance. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8-Miss Miche Lada; 6-Prime Number.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Miss Miche Lada is comfortably drawn outside and projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking/pressing trip. This class drop to the maiden $8,000 level should make the winning difference but at even money on the morning line she won’t be offering any wagering value. Prime Number is a first timer from San Luis Rey Downs for a clever outfit. How good does she have to be to act at this level? Toss her in somewhere.

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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Smart Code; 4-Annan.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Smart Code show up for a tag and the class drop should make the winning difference. He’s proven over the course and the barn has strong stats with layoff runners, so we’re expecting the Honor Code gelding to be primed and ready. Annan crushed maidens with a career top number last time out. This is a much tougher group but with another forward move he could be competitive.

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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Atomic Drop; 5-Ready to Pounce.
Backups: 7-Man Child.

Forecast: Atomic Drop returns to dirt, take as a realistic class drop for a high percentage outfit and looks well placed to regain his winning form. He’s tough on the front end but doesn’t need the lead to win, so regular pilot A. Espinoza can play the break and improvise if necessary. Ready to Pounce was in too tough last time out but a repeat of his race before last charts well here. He’s worth including on the main ticket for protection.

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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Freedom’s Not Free.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Freedom’s Not Free, freshened since winning the Pasadena Stakes over this course and distance in early March, has trained like he’s primed for another major performance upon his return for high percentage connections. The son of Omaha Beach has a good stalking style and projects to have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole to the wire.

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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Canada Gate; 3-Lyell’s Song.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Canada Gate makes his second start off a layoff and should be fitter and sharper today. He’s reunited with “win” rider J. Hernandez and projects to have a strong pace presence throughout. Lyell’s Song displayed promise last summer but had to be stopped on. He continues to train like a nice sort and could easily be this good this time around for top connections.

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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Smiling Beast; 3-Catmansue.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Smiling Beast was given way too much to do and was no factor when fourth down the hill in a similar affair last time but we’re expecting considerable improvement today with the change to the flat course from his favorable inside draw. Catmansue, a close third in the same race our top pick exits, figures in the fray once again and may be the most dangerous of the closing types.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:29 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 11, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park begins the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:50 PM EDT)

1-Thornbush Hanover (9/2)-The Schillaci veteran shouldn't be overlooked. Drops, draws the rail, and Aaron Merriman is at the controls. Could beat this bunch and if not will make it interesting.
3-Coop A Loop (8-1)-Posted a win on 4-27, then bumped up a few levels and raced evenly in the slop. Drops to the level just above the last win and should get a cozy trip with this post draw.
5-Jim Blue (7/2)-Jim knows how to beat this kind and does well racing on the point or close by. Kody Massey should be aggressive when the wings fold. Best to not overlook, has taken 5 pictures in 17 starts at Nfld and can be a main player if brings a top effort.

Race 12 (10:13 PM EDT)

3-Vibrant Kally (3/2)-Recent form has been dull and not liking the short price. If the 9-year-old drew outside my instinct would be to fade. But that isn't the case, and Ronnie Wrenn drives for the 2nd straight time. Will respect and hope for others with some value.
7-Jumping Jillybean (15-1)-Raced in the slop, was hung the mile versus this kind and will toss that start. Before that, got a suck-around trip, finished an even 2nd and that was the 1st race since 8-11. This will be the 3rd race off the bench and has the gate speed to be forwardly placed. Not sure the morning line odds hold up but should offer a solid price.
9-Live And Let Di (3-1)-Came up short in the 2nd start off the bench on a sloppy track. Tried to go gate to wire and left from the rail. One move type needs a ground saving trip and could get one if the start goes well.

Race 13 (10:36 PM EDT)

7-Night Shadow (3-1)-Raced big in last, worked hard to get the top and almost wired this kind. Starts from the same post which is inside of my other choice below. Should be an interesting race but the Burke trainee is too consistent to dismiss. If the opening quarter goes smoothly Wrenn might be able to rate the mile and steal a quarter.
8-Liteningonthebeach (5-1)-Winner of 2 straight usually tries to go gate to wire but rallied from the backfield to win in the slop last week. Merriman will likely leave and is a threat to win again if close to the lead turning for the wire.

Race 14 (10:39 PM EDT)

6-Highland Mowgli (5/2)-Almost dropped and popped last week leaving from post 7. Takes another drop in class here, and should be driven aggressively off the gate. Wrenn has options and this looks like a beatable field. Probably won't offer much value but should have its way with this crew if dialed on high.

$1 Late Pick 4

1,3,5/3,7,9/7,8/6
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:30 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #7

#1 Artislas	His baseline form is tough here, and I think he'll appreciate the added ground to work with again today. Tough with his better stuff.
#4 Bodi Zafa	He's probably too cheap to win this, but I like his reliable form he brings with him and think he's in line for a good trip. Chance for a share in deeper waters?
#6 Freedom's Not Free	He's another who has some decent stakes form on his page, and he should find a perfect spot right up on whatever pace there is in here.
Race Summary	Artislas gets the edge with a cozy tracking trip waiting for him, and I think he can kick home best in a soft-paced race. Bodi Zafa has a little appeal with the cheaper Turf Paradise lines on the page.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#5 Brazenly	He owns some reliable route form in a race with a handful of question marks around two turns. Hoping he finds a sweet spot to rally into a potential pace battle?
#3 Lyell's Song	Nothing wrong with the form through two runs, but I have a mild worry that the stretchout player drawn just inside of him could force the issue a bit. High-upside player.
#4 Canada Gate	He's got some upside in the second start back and is capable of something better than he showed last time around. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Brazenly might get an OK race flow today with a couple of potential pace players ahead of him, and there are some decent efforts in his recent lines that stack up nicely today.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#4 Sir Rocket	Loved the graduation score here in February and thought he ran OK while stepping up to face winners in that last one. Spy and finish run to score?
#1 Smiling Beast	He has a little bit of reliable finishing form on his page, and he might be able to stay tucked in just behind a couple of quicker players early on. Wouldn't argue with anyone landing here.
#8 Known Idea	Thought about him for some time and think he has a real claim on this one -- but I'm just a bit worried about the way he tends to go flat in the final yards. Vulnerable late?
Race Summary	Sir Rocket might appreciate getting back to this slightly sharper trip, and I'm hoping he'll find a good spot tracking the splits rather than setting them today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pimlico
PURCHASE

Pimlico - Race 7	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Claiming $25,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 3:27P
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND ONE EIGHTH)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BOLD LICORICE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ARTWELL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KEY STAT: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
10	BOLD LICORICE	9/2	7/2
2	ARTWELL	10/1	5/1
8	KEY STAT	7/5	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	LIL SEBASTIAN	4	3/1	Front-runner	70	65	89.4	62.0	47.5
8	KEY STAT	8	7/5	Front-runner	81	80	60.7	74.9	66.9
7	KUNOOZ	7	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	72	82	67.3	64.5	58.0
2	ARTWELL	2	10/1	Stalker	81	79	78.7	80.6	74.6
5	MO JOKE	5	5/1	Stalker	70	61	75.4	63.9	51.4
10	BOLD LICORICE	10	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	86	82	77.2	79.6	73.6
3	CESNOLA	3	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	75	74	56.8	64.8	53.3
6	TRUE FAITH	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	64	59.7	36.0	19.5
9	PURE REALIZATION	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	58	55.2	50.8	28.8
12	ELFUEGOMASBRILANTE	12	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	69	53.2	63.0	53.5
1	BOOKITWITHHADDAD	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	64	53.1	50.2	31.2
11	GREY FLANNEL BOSS	11	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	69	36.5	47.1	28.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:32 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pocatello Downs
PURCHASE

Pocatello Downs - Race 6	$2 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $2 Trifecta($1 Box) / $2 Half Mid Daily Double
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $3,000 • Post: 3:30P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDEN THREE YEAR OLDS & OLDER. OPEN TO MIXED BREED. WTS: 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * M E FLYING COWGIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. VIGILANZ: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designa tion or an "L" designation. ONE PAINTED ROAD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	M E FLYING COWGIRL	9/5	5/2
9	VIGILANZ	3/1	9/2
4	ONE PAINTED ROAD	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GH SQUISHY LIPS	1	7/1	Slow	0	0	8.5	0.0	0.0
2	TILLYS KISS A COWBOY	2	6/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	MISS UP THE CREEK	3	4/1	Slow	50	40	9.4	0.0	0.0
4	ONE PAINTED ROAD	4	8/1	Average	67	47	5.7	0.0	0.0
5	JV TOAST TO VICTORY	5	10/1	Average	0	0	4.0	0.0	0.0
7	M E FLYING COWGIRL	7	9/5	Average	71	63	5.4	0.0	0.0
8	PARAMOUNT	8	20/1	Slow	59	9	6.9	0.0	0.0
9	VIGILANZ	9	3/1	Average	63	51	3.7	0.0	0.0
10	FIRST FLASH DOWN	10	15/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: FIT N PRETTY (12/1) [Jockey: Virgen Jesus - Trainer: Smith Weston].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:32 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 4:33pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#1 MISS KENNEDY (ML=5/2)
#2 STRAWBERRY SUNDAE (ML=1/1)

MISS KENNEDY - This pony should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could wire the field. STRAWBERRY SUNDAE - The recent speed fig of 75 is the best last race rating in the bunch. Ranked at the very top in earnings per race entered. Another confirmation that this horse outclasses this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GYPSYROSELEE (ML=7/2), #3 SHE'S TAKIN OVER (ML=6/1), #5 AVERI EVER AFTER (ML=8/1),

GYPSYROSELEE - Disappointing fig last time around the track at Fair Grounds at 1 mile. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race. Last effort was too strong. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'performance bounce' this time. SHE'S TAKIN OVER - 6/1 is not enough of a value to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back efforts. Finished fourth in her most recent performance with a common fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. AVERI EVER AFTER - Finished fifth in her most recent performance with a quite unimpressive speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 MISS KENNEDY to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:32 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Emerald Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2025 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 OWHATARUSH 5/2
# 2 FIFTY CINCO 4/1
# 1 MISTER MAFIOSO 3/1

OWHATARUSH has a very good shot to take this race. Recent figs for the jockey - 25 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group. Must be given a chance - I like the numbers from the last contest. He has been running strongly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most competitive in this group of horses. FIFTY CINCO - Should expect a formidable effort with the class drop. Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. MISTER MAFIOSO - Looks strong versus this group of horses in this race and will most likely be one of the leaders. Has been racing admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:32 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 77

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BRODY 7/2
# 3 MELLIFLUOUS 6/1
# 1 TAUNTING 9/2

BRODY is my choice. Has to be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Will almost certainly go to the front end and could never look back. Recorded a strong speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. MELLIFLUOUS - Could provide positive gains based on respectable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 75. This jockey and handler team has produced some solid ROI numbers at this track. TAUNTING - Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is sound for this equine. Has posted formidable Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:17pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $65,625 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#8 SMUGGLER'S GOLD (ML=5/1)
#10 HYDRUS (ML=3/1)
#7 NAVESINK PIRATE (ML=6/1)
#13 PERROTTO (ML=8/1)

SMUGGLER'S GOLD - This gelding should find these state breds easier than what he faced in his last race on April 11th. The jockey and conditioner combination here have a high win percent when they combine forces. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. I like to bet on this angle, a campaigner coming back off a nice contest within the last thirty days. HYDRUS - Trainer Ryan moves this thoroughbred down in class to face a lower class of horses. Look for a good effort given the class advantage. After the event aboard this horse on Apr 19th, the rider is going to be acquainted with the colt much better. This horse collects a lot of dough per race. I believe he can augment the lifetime total right here. A repeat of that most recent effort on Apr 19th where he notched a speed fig of 78 looks good enough to prove victorious in this contest. NAVESINK PIRATE - This gelding should find these state breds easier than what he faced in his last race on March 23rd. PERROTTO - I think the shorter trip will help this gelding stay the trip. State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this gelding's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Look for this one to go all the way at some respectable odds today. Ran eighth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LIVALISCIOUS (ML=8/1), #11 IRISH INDYGO (ML=8/1),

LIVALISCIOUS - In any race of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been on the board in sprint races recently. Not likely for this entrant to do much this time out. The extended vacation is a troublesome sign. IRISH INDYGO - Hasn't been getting close at all recently. Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a short distance race to be worth a shot at short odds in a sprint. Finished sixth in his most recent performance with a pedestrian speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 SMUGGLER'S GOLD to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,8,10] with [7,8,10] with [7,8,10,12,13] with [7,8,10,12,13] Total Cost: $36