11-21-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DUNKEL

Game 439-440: Kansas City at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.166; New England 139.858
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 16; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+16); N/A

[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Monday, November 21, 2011
NEW ENGLAND 30, Kansas City 14

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

NFL PLAYS
3 UNIT* NFL* Take Kansas City Chiefs +15 over New England Patriots

[Mr. IWS]

Platinum Sheet - Stat Fox

NE Patriots

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Vic Philadelphia Daily News

PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs: Laying 15 in the NFL is uncomfortable, but in this spot, it's a must. Put aside the fact that New England is on top of the AFC East, has a ridiculous 19-3 record at home the last 22 games and will be playing against Tyler Palko (13 lifetime passes). The real story line here is Tom Brady (5000-plus lifetime passes). The last time he played Kansas City was in the 2008 home opener. If you remember, he was knocked out and lost the entire season. Revenge? You betcha!

[Mr. IWS]

NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: WEEK 11
By Colin Kelly

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)
WHY CHIEFS WILL COVER: That’s an awful lot of points. Even in a rout, Kansas City could come up with a cheap late score for a backdoor cover. And they’ve got a couple ATS trends in their favor, having covered five straight from underdog role and 11 of 13 catching more than 10 points. Pats just 3-15 ATS last 18 laying more than 10.
WHY PATRIOTS WILL COVER: Many started pointing out Pats’ inadequacies after losses to Steelers and Giants. Then they smacked Jets pretty good last week on road. Bill Belichick doesn’t mess around with bad teams, going 5-1 ATS last six against sub-.500 squads. And Chiefs are starting someone named Tyler Palko at QB this week, with Matt Cassel potentially out for season with a throwing hand injury.
TOTAL (46.5): Chiefs averaging just 15.7 ppg (27th), with total going low four straight and six of last seven. But Patriots play to over with regularity, with total going high eight of last 10 at home and 21 of last 28 overall. Plus, in Monday spotlight, New England on 5-1-1 over streak.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Christ’s breakdown of Pro Football Week 11 by Bob Christ

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, Nov. 21

Kansas City (4-5) at New England (6-3)

Time: 5:30 p.m. PT

Line: Patriots by 15

Facts: When these clubs last met, in Week 1 in 2008, the host Pats were a 16-point pick and won 17-10. They haven’t been that heavy a pick since. In that game, current Chiefs QB Matt Cassel (out, hand) was with NE and relieved injured Tom Brady. Now Tyler Palko replaces Cassel. In the sole game Cassel missed in 2010, Brodie Croyle led KC to 67 yards of offense in a 31-0 loss at San Diego, the worst production by a club since 2004.

Analysis: Palko, 28, undrafted out Pitt, will be making his first start on the road against a Bill Belichick team on Monday night. Yikes! But recent history indicates that there’s hope: In Week 4, perennial Indy backup Curtis Painter got his first start at Tampa Bay on MNF. He pitched two TDs without an INT and helped the Colts beat the line in a 24-17 loss. Palko, however, likely will play more like Croyle.

Forecast: Patriots 38, Chiefs 13

[Mr. IWS]

JOHN CHANG

---Start Time 8:30 PM EST---
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS/Kansas City Chiefs over 46, 10 dimes

[Mr. IWS]

JACK HOWARD

Kansas City +15 Over New England 10 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

What Bettors Need to Know: Chiefs at Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-15, 46.5)

THE STORY: For one of the few times during the Bill Belichick reign, the New England Patriots were dealing with more questions than they had answers heading into last week's AFC East showdown at the New York Jets. Facing the prospect of a third straight defeat for the first time in nine years, the Patriots regained their footing and hammered the archrival Jets 37-16.

With one crisis averted and back in its familiar perch atop the division, New England faces what appears to be a rout in the making when it hosts the bruised and battered Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. The Chiefs have lost two straight following a four-game winning streak.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (4-5): After opening the season with three disastrous losses, Kansas City appeared ready to seize control of the AFC West by ripping off four consecutive wins, including victories over division rivals Oakland and San Diego.

Then came lopsided home defeats to previously winless Miami and Tim Tebow-led Denver last week, a game in which Matt Cassel may have been lost for the season with a hand injury that required surgery.

Having already lost star RB Jamaal Charles for the season in Week 2, the Chiefs will go be forced to start QB Tyler Palko, who has 13 career pass attempts to his credit.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-3): After three straight weeks of failing to surpass 20 points, New England got its high-powered offense back on track as Tom Brady threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns in carving up the Jets.

Equally important for the Patriots was the performance of its much-maligned defense, which is ranked dead last in the league but registered five sacks – including a franchise-record 4.5 by Andre Carter.

Second-year TE Rob Gronkowski continues to be a force with eight catches for a career-high 113 yards and two TDs. WR Wes Welker leads the league in receptions (72) and yards (1,006).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams last met in the season opener in 2008. Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury, opening the door for Cassel to take over as starter.

2. The Patriots are 9-1 in their last 10 Monday Night Football games.

3. Gronkowski had 18 TD passes in 25 career games. Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe has 19 scoring passes during that same span – second only to Detroit’s Calvin Johnson (23)

LINE MOVEMENT:

Most shops opened with the Pats giving 14.5 points but just about everyone now has it a half point higher at New England -15.The total opened as high as 48 but has been bet down to 46.5. Makes sense. We know the Pats can put up points but the Chiefs offense is str***ling and missing Matt Cassel.

TRENDS:

The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when getting 10.5 or more points.

The Pats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records but 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games when favored by 10.5 or more points.

The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four games while the over is 8-2 in the Pats’ last 10 home games.

WEATHER:

It should be a little chilly (game time temperature around 40 F) but wind and precipitation shouldn’t play a factor.

PREDICTION: Patriots 37, Chiefs 13. New England can name its number with Palko making his first career start

[Mr. IWS]

MNF - Chiefs at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers

The Chiefs and Patriots wrap up Week 11 in the NFL on Monday night as New England looks to stay sharp against a banged-up Kansas City squad. The Pats (6-3) got back on track after a strong second half performance against the Jets to take control of first place in the AFC East.

Tom Brady sliced up the Jets' defense for three touchdowns and 329 yards as New England snapped a two-game skid with a 37-16 drubbing of New York as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The Patriots rushed for just 60 yards, but Rob Gronkowski continued a Pro Bowl-type season as the tight end caught two touchdowns to go along with 113 yards receiving. With the win, New England pulled off the season sweep of New York, but the Pats were also assisted by the Jets losing to the Broncos on Thursday night.

The Chiefs (4-5) have seen plenty of highs and lows this season, as Kansas City will likely play the rest of the way without quarterback Matt Cassel. The former Patriot injured his throwing hand in last week's 17-10 loss to Denver, as the Broncos completed a measly two passes in the victory. Cassel threw for just 93 yards on 13 completions before giving way to Tyler Palko, who will get the start against the Patriots.

The ex-Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback is making his first career start on Monday against a Patriots' defense that is allowing a league-worst 412 yards/game. The New England secondary has been torched all season as the passing defense has given up 308 yards/game, which ranks at the bottom of the league. However, the Chiefs are averaging 182.2 yards/game through the air and 15.7 points/game, which will make things tough for Kansas City to keep up with New England's explosive offense.

The Patriots were scoring points in waves the first five weeks of the season by topping the 30-point mark each time. However, New England hit a wall in the following three games by scoring 20 points or less against the Steelers, Cowboys, and Giants, while losing to Pittsburgh and New York. Bill Belichick's team has profited against the number this season with a 5-4 ATS mark, as the Pats are listed as a double-digit favorite for the first time in 2011.

Kansas City's best role has been as an underdog as Todd Haley's club is 5-1 ATS this season when receiving points. The Chiefs were the hottest team from a pointspread standpoint from Week 3 through Week 8 with five consecutive covers, including an overtime triumph over the Chargers in a Monday night thriller. However, laying points isn't Kansas City's strong suit by going 0-3 ATS this season, including back-to-back home losses to Miami and Denver.

The Packers snapped a three-game ATS losing streak for favorites on Monday night in last week's 45-7 rout of the Vikings, improving 'chalk' to 5-6 ATS in Monday affairs. However, favorites of at least eight points have covered just one of four times this season, including outright losses by Baltimore (at Jacksonville) and Philadelphia (vs. Chicago).

This is only the fourth Monday night game at Gillette Stadium since 2003, as the Patriots are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the previous three contests. The last one was a resounding blowout by the Pats, a 45-3 trouncing of the Jets last November as four-point favorites. New England won in its only Monday night appearance back in Week 1, beating Miami, 38-24 as seven-point 'chalk.'

The Patriots are listed as 16½-point favorites against this undermanned Chiefs' squad, but New England owns a 1-5 ATS mark the last six times as double-digit 'chalk.' The total is set at 46½, while several outfits have the game at 47. Things kick off at 8:30 PM EST from Foxboro as the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

[Mr. IWS]

NFL Week 11

Chiefs (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3) - Chief QB Cassel (hand) is out for year; former Pitt QB Palko gets first NFL start here, leading team that scored one TD on last 21 drives in losing last two games by 28-7 points. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chiefs lost last four visits here by 30-6-3-7 points, with last win in '90. Patriots lost two of last three games, but are 3-1 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points with a loss to Jets (2-2 as home faves). Six of last seven Kansas City games stayed under total, as did three of last four Patriot tilts. Chief personnel head Pioli had same role in Foxboro during Patriots' championship years. Chiefs covered their last three road games, are 5-1 as an underdog this season

[Mr. IWS]

Ice Picks

Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars (-145, 5.5)

These young Oilers are giving their supporters 1980s flashbacks.

With Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle leading the charge, Edmonton hammered Chicago 9-2 Saturday night despite being outshot 36-34. Nugent Hopkins had five assists, Hall picked up a hat trick and Eberle scored and added three helpers.

“It definitely gives us confidence,” Hall told reporters. “It's great we won all three periods. It's easy to let off the gas pedal, but we didn't.”

That’s a major step in the right direction for a young club that has predictably struggled with consistency. They had dropped five straight, so they were in desperate need of a win.

This is a tough matchup against a solid Stars team that has dropped five in a row as well, but we’ll take a shot with the Oilers.

Pick: Oilers

Phoenix Coyotes at Washington Capitals (-145, 5.5)

You know things are going well for the Coyotes when Paul Bissonnette is finding the back of the net.

The NHL’s undisputed Twitter king and one of its most feared heavyweights isn’t exactly known for his scoring prowess, but with more than 50 family members and friends in the stands Saturday, he buried his first of the season in a 4-2 win over Buffalo.

“It’s probably blowing up big time,” Bissonnette told reporters of his Twitter account after potting his fifth career goal. “I haven’t checked it yet. These are nights where people like to congratulate, because most of the time I’m getting flak for being such a pug.”

While Phoenix is cruising with three wins in its first four games on this road trip, Alex Ovechkin and the Caps are taking a lot of heat after getting pounded 7-1 by Toronto. You know coach Bruce Boudreau is steamed and there is some talk that Alex Semin may be a healthy scratch for this one.

Pick: Over

[Mr. IWS]

College FUNds: Monday's Best NCAAB bets

Michigan Wolverines at Memphis Tigers (-4)

It wasn’t pretty, but the Michigan Wolverines did take some positives away from a 59-55 squeaker of a win over Western Illinois.

"We needed a game like that, to kind of wake us up a little bit," Jordan Morgan told reporters. "Not just wake us up -- get used to playing in those situations where we've got to knock down free throws late, and we've got to get key stops and key baskets. We needed to feel that pressure."

They need to get a lot better in a lot of different aspects of the game if they’re going to hang around with Memphis at the Maui Invitational. Will Barton, Wesley Witherspoon and Joe Jackson all cracked the 20-point plateau in Memphis’ 97-81 beatdown of Belmont as a 3-point favorite to open the season.

We haven’t seen much of Memphis yet, but it’s not hard to see what a tough team this is going to be. The Tigers’ length and athleticism could be tough for Michigan to match.

Pick: Memphis

Georgetown Hoyas at Kansas Jayhawks (-5)

Kansas coach Bill Self has no illusions about his club at this point in the season. The Jayhawks have potential, but they were in over their heads in a 75-65 loss against Kansas last week as 6.5-point underdogs.

"If you look at our team individually, we don't jump off the paper at you at all," Self told reporters. "That doesn't mean we don't have good players. We do, but not like we have from the marquee standpoint in the past. You have to become one, and we're not one yet."

The Hoyas have a way to go as well, though you have to like the quick start they’re off to. Hollis Thompson and Jason Clark look poised in the offense and Georgetown’s crop of freshmen appear to be ready for a big workload this season.

The Hoyas covered easily as 19-point favorites in a 86-45 rout of UNC Greensboro but obviously have a much stiffer test ahead of them here.

Pick: Jayhawks