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Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | May 14, 2025

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May 13, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

It’s Preakness Week stateside and we’re trying to build up the day’s bankroll with some overnight action at Happy Valley in Hong Kong. First post is 6:40 am ET on Wednesday.

Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +64%

Highlights: 9/1 cold Exacta given out Saturday at Sha Tin

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – May 14
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.

Race 1 | 1800M | Class 5
Win - 4

Notes: Top-rated 4 – GO GO GO gets another shot at nine furlongs after a tough trip in traffic led him to a disappointing finish last time out. This five-year-old is running much better races than the form suggests, and at 15/2 on the morning line I like the price to win outright.

Race 2 | 1000M | Class 3
Exacta Key Box – 4 w/ 2,3

Notes: My numbers favor the experience of the 2 – ETERNAL FORTUNE and 3 – HEALTHY HEALTHY at morning line odds of 13/1 and 10/1 respectively. We’re playing against heavy favorite 5 – LOOKING BRIGHT who is coming to Hong Kong after breaking his maiden in Australia. 4 – SEASONS WIT has an outstanding record in these straightaway five-furlong dashes, and I’m hoping to score a big price keying him with a couple other longer shots.

Race 3 | 1650M | Class 2
Win - 1

Notes: 1 – HELENE FEELING is the fourth choice according to the morning line odds at 4/1 in this short field, but rates clearly the best at 112.47 against the next best at just 105.9 in 3 – SOLEIL FIGHTER. Let’s play to win this Class 2 bout and hope some others take the bulk of the public money.

Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Win – 7
Quinella Box – 7,8,12

Notes: Top choice 7 – PRECISION GOAL tops the Power Ratings and is looking to get back into form after a few unsuccessful tries in Class 4 competition. He lost his tongue tie last out, was bumped early the race before, and gets a ten-pound handicap this time around. At 13/1 on the morning line, I like his chances to light up the board. We’ll play to win and box him in a Quinella with a couple other competitive looking prices.

Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 9
Exacta Box – 1,9

Notes: The short price, and highest in my Power Ratings, is 1 – GALAXY WITNESS with a rating of 98.58 after making his return to the turf and coming up short. In just his third start, 9 – RISING PHOENIX appears capable to be exactly that, a horse rated 97.07 on the rise after a tough trip getting a bit disrespected at 13/1 by the oddsmakers. I like his chances to win as much as I like any other, and we’ll bake in some price-favorable insurance in the Exacta in case he comes up short to a strong contender.

Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 1
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 3,5,8

Notes: My Power Ratings favor this huge morning line price at 53/1. That tells me there’s certainly something being overly weighted somewhere in his past, but the price is too good not to take a shot at. Let’s put a small flyer on him to win and key him with some of the runners in better form at shorter odds.

Race 7 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 3,4,6

Notes: This race doesn’t have a clear standout, to me, on paper. The numbers lean towards 3 – SWAGGER BRO and 6 – BEAUTY THUNDER at prices of 11/1 and 16/1 respectively on the morning line. Shortly priced 4 – GREAT SPIRIT comes in third in the Power Ratings and gets the added benefit of one of Hong Kong’s better mounts. I like some combination of prices to be in play here, and will play a Quinella to reflect that.

Race 8 | 1800M | Class 3
Exacta Box – 1,3

Notes: 1 – MONEY CATCHER hopes to be exactly that, being the only runner in this field with recent Group Stakes experience and getting back to a distance he has been marginally more comfortable with. He hasn’t had a great trip in a few runs, which is concerning to see a pattern, but at morning line odds of 21/1 and a group-best Power Rating of 103.19 we’re going to see what we can muster.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Thistledown - Race #1

#9 River Bye	Bit worried the price gets short here, but I think it's graduation day today with a good outside draw for a tracking trip. The right one today.
#6 Last Minute Mikey	He has enough pace to sit close early, but I worry that his late fades have been carbon copies in both races so far. Vulnerable late again.
#5 Dew It With Class	Debuter doesn't seem to meet a whole lot of depth outside of the top pair, so a share wouldn't be a surprise at first asking.
Race Summary	River Bye should be able to handle this group with a great trip likely waiting from the outside. Would seem fair at something like 8/5 or so.

Thistledown - Race #6

#4 Empire's Fire	Price won't be much here, but he's supposed to handle this crew today from close range. He ran well fresh when returning last year, so I will guess he's ready to roll again today.
#1 Henry Mac	He should be in the frame early while tucked inside, but the top choice doesn't usually quit much late, and this one is going to be giving a jump into the lane.
#6 Wildcat Express	Think he's going to end up fading to settle underneath after mixing it up early, but there's a scenario in which he attacks from this post from the start and scores.
Race Summary	Empire's Fire should be a handful here -- he went to the bench late last year in sharp form and should get a perfect trip right up on the pace.

Thistledown - Race #8

#1 Sadie's Ghost	He's got some rail pace that could put him on the engine if the next guy doesn't prompt him early, and the price might be a bit better this time around.
#3 Red Chips	He stepped forward nicely in that last one and seems competitive with something similar, and he should be in line for a great trip tracking the top choice.
#6 P J's Boy	That decent rally in the debut should set him up for something better today, and he could find a bit better spying spot today while adding blinkers.
Race Summary	Sadie's Ghost stopped last out, but I am hoping he'll stick around better today with that comeback run under his belt. Lots to like today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#5 SWAY’SINMYDNA (5-2)	Plagued by troubled starts, could take catching with clean break in return.
#6 FREE DROP BACH (12-1)	Third to next-out repeater two back, no factor in 5-1/2F seasonal debut.
#9 TYCOON MOGUL (8-5)	Take the plunge for Ness, sheds 5 pounds, offers little value.
Race Summary	SWAY’SINMYDNA gets class relief for his first start as a 5-year-old. He finished a close-up second in three consecutive 6F sprints for higher claiming prices to begin the summer last year. Like his chances in a field that is a combined 3-for-53 at the distance. Bet to win and place and play 5-6 and 5-9 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#5 YUMYUM EAT EM UP (8-1)	Excels at 6F, projects ideal trip, nears $100,000 bankroll at age 4.
#2 GOLDEN MOONLIGHT (8-5)	Wired field two back for $15k, tired as fave in $25k follow-up.
#6 OSCAR GAZE (6-1)	Good form for half this amount at Tampa, exits fast $10k heat, gets Paco.
Race Summary	YUMYUM EAT EM UP, first or second in 7 of 11 starts at this distance, gets ample pace flow to mount another contending rally. She has three wins, a second and a third in her last five short sprints on a fast track. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#2 LA DE PELUCHE (5-2)	Will have every chance to upgrade in-the-money finishes on the class drop.
#5 CUNDI (9-5)	Takes desperation drop after numerous setbacks by double digit lengths.
#1 SWEEET AND FEISTY (5-1)	Has speed and the rail and gets in light for first main-track route.
Race Summary	LA DE PELUCHE finished in the money in 4 of her last 5 starts, twice from close to the pace and the last two from off the pace. She may never meet a weaker field, so give her the nod for a win and place bet and play 2-1 and 2-5 exactas.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs
PURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 2	Win/Place/Show/Daily Double/Exactor/Triactor/Superfecta Pick 3(2-3-4)Pick 5 (2-3-4-5-6)
Speed Index • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 2:12P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 75 AND UNDER OR WITH A SPEED INDEX THAT HAS NEVER BEEN BETTER THAN 80. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * AZURES ROYALTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLY BELLE CARTEL: Horse h as the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THE ZING DYNASTY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating.
6	AZURES ROYALTY	15/1	9/2
5	FLY BELLE CARTEL	5/2	5/1
4	THE ZING DYNASTY	5/1	8/1
1	A FANCY ARRANGEMENT	7/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BEWITCHIN	3	10/1	Average	66	59	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	THE ZING DYNASTY	4	5/1	Average	67	65	5.2	0.0	0.0
5	FLY BELLE CARTEL	5	5/2	Slow	72	65	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	AZURES ROYALTY	6	15/1	Slow	77	74	7.8	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: A FANCY ARRANGEMENT (7/2) [Jockey: Bell Brian - Trainer: Tavares Joe], WINNING OKIE (3/1) [Jockey: Isaacs Rachael - Trainer: Illman Corey].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 93 • Purse: $150,000 • Post: 5:16P
HORSESHOE INDIANAPOLIS H. IND - R7 - FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $100 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $200 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $150,000 GUARANTEED. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING OF ENTRIES FOR A FEE OF $1,000 WHICH INCLUDES ENTRY AND STARTING FEES. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, THE PURSE WILL BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THIS FIELD WILL BE LIMITED TO TWELVE STARTERS. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. IF MORE THAN TWELVE HORSES PASS THE ENTRY BOX, PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO (1) GRADE/GROUP 1 WINNERS, (2) GRADE/GROUP 2 WINNERS AND GRADE/GROUP 1 PLACE FINISHERS, (3) GRADE/GROUP 3 WINNERS AND GRADE/GROUP 2 PLACE FINISHERS, (4) HIGHEST LIFETIME EARNINGS. TROPHY TO THE WINNING OWNER. MANAGEMENT RESERVES THE RIGHT TO CANCEL THIS STAKE WITH LESS THAN SIX BETTING INTERESTS. CLOSED ON WEDNESDAY, APR

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LOVE YOU ANYWAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SIGH NO MORE (IRE): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ADMIT: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). BESSIE ABOTT (IRE): H orse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PLAY WITH FIRE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
12	LOVE YOU ANYWAY	9/2	5/1
4	SIGH NO MORE (IRE)	10/1	6/1
9	ADMIT	3/1	8/1
14	BESSIE ABOTT (IRE)	6/1	9/1
3	PLAY WITH FIRE	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	STAY CLASSY	11	10/1	Front-runner	83	75	77.8	77.8	57.3
6	RUNNING AWAY	6	8/1	Front-runner	84	87	77.8	74.5	66.5
7	MULTIPLICATION	7	12/1	Front-runner	76	84	64.9	71.4	49.4
2	JUST RUTHLESS	2	15/1	Stalker	84	82	91.0	73.0	55.5
3	PLAY WITH FIRE	3	5/1	Stalker	83	82	88.6	83.1	73.1
12	LOVE YOU ANYWAY	12	9/2	Stalker	92	89	83.1	87.4	82.9
13	JUNTA	13	8/1	Stalker	85	82	75.4	76.9	58.9
9	ADMIT	9	3/1	Stalker	93	94	75.0	84.2	68.7
14	BESSIE ABOTT (IRE)	14	6/1	Stalker	87	89	68.3	81.5	72.5
1	ZEALOUS MOON	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	85	74.3	78.2	70.2
8	MASCARA	8	30/1	Trailer	78	68	70.2	70.2	47.2
10	PRINCESS ATTITUDE	10	20/1	Trailer	84	74	51.4	72.1	54.6
5	REINING FLOWERS	5	15/1	Trailer	88	84	50.3	76.5	55.0

Unknown Running Style: SIGH NO MORE (IRE) (10/1) [Jockey: Saez Luis - Trainer: Walsh Brendan P].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Stakes - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 84

SAGAMORE SIRED H. - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA SIRED, THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE, $150 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $100 TO START, WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING OF ENTRIES FOR A FEE OF $625 WHICH INCLUDES ENTRY AND STARTING FEES. AFTER PAYING 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MONDAVILA 4/5
# 8 DR. ALEX IS IN 5/1
# 3 SLAM DUNK JUSTICE 4/1

I think MONDAVILA is a formidable choice. His 67 average has this gelding with among the most competitive speed figs in here. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a competitive shot. Could best this group of horses based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 91 - of his last effort. DR. ALEX IS IN - Will most likely compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group. Put up a respectable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. SLAM DUNK JUSTICE - The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a return to the track for this gelding. Should be given consideration in here if only for the respectable speed rating posted in the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#3 CALLIHOO (ML=8/1)
#5 SEEING RED (ML=9/5)


CALLIHOO - Bowen rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last race out and comes right back in today's contest. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front running sort facing sluggish sorts today. SEEING RED - This gelding is in nice condition, having run a strong race on Apr 29th, finishing second. Gelding is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big performance today. Aboard this horse on April 29th and Diaz is right back in the irons in today's contest. This gelding's last speed rating earned on Apr 29th is tops in last race Equibase speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CANDY CRUSHEM (ML=5/2), #7 BOBBY G (ML=7/2), #4 OWN THE TOWN (ML=5/1),

CANDY CRUSHEM - 5/2 is not worth the risk for any racer in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint race lately. Tough to wager on this runner running out of the one post. His pps show that he doesn't run well out of there. BOBBY G - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint affairs in order to play him. OWN THE TOWN - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing ability on November 6th.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SEEING RED - This gelding is stepping up with each race. He has shown a notable points increase in his speed ratings over his last two races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 CALLIHOO on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 70

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $15,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 LASKO LADY 12/1
# 5 FUEGO K 3/1
# 9 BLUSHING KAM 5/2

LASKO LADY is my pick and is a very good value wager given the line. Ran a solid last race. FUEGO K - Is a definite contender - given the 62 Equibase speed fig from her most recent race. Brinkman has this filly running well and is a decent selection based on the solid Equibase Speed Figures earned in sprint races lately. BLUSHING KAM - She has to be carefully examined given the very strong speed figs. Strong dividends have been scored by players using this jock and trainer duo lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Delaware Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:31pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#6 BIRD KING (ML=8/1)
#8 INDULGE (ML=3/1)
#7 CAERUS (ML=10/1)


BIRD KING - This gelding is in top form right now. Ran second last out and comes back promptly. Mauricio was aboard this gelding last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Don't often see a favorable ROI like +133. This rider/handler duet has done well together over the last 12 months. The May 2nd contest at Charles Town was at a class level of (95). Dropping down in the class scale considerably, so he should be in a good spot to take this race. Ranked numero uno in earnings per race. Another notice that this animal has class. This horse has increased his speed figures in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at. INDULGE - Trainer Simone moves this animal down in class to face a less competitive field. Look for a nice race this time out. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid contest on April 16th. The 89 latest race fig looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. CAERUS - Hazlewood and McMahon have had fantastic success together over the last 12 months. He'll be laying in the 'garden' spot, right behind the early speed. Dropping 8 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KICK STARTNESS (ML=8/5), #3 LOOKIN FOR JUSTICE (ML=6/1),

KICK STARTNESS - This morning-line favorite ran on April 19th and hasn't had a work since. LOOKIN FOR JUSTICE - Hard to play a runner that cannot even score one time in his last ten races. You think this horse is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently. Mediocre speed figure last out at Delaware Park at 1 mile. Don't feel this horse will improve too much today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BIRD KING - With the highest last speed rating of 89, this gelding looks exceptional against these thoroughbreds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 BIRD KING on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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