Saturday 5/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:26 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 17, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Hoosier Park has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:24 PM EDT)

3-Big Al Derosa (4-1)-Qualified 2 times and won the last tune up in 151.2 on the engine. Doesn't have the resume of the program chalk but has won 3 of 8 at HoP. The Graber trainee could be faster and better as a 4-year-old, so will use in case the 5 doesn't bring its fast ball.
5-Chandler Bing (8/5)-Came into this season riding a 4-race win streak and it was snapped in its 2025 debut. Was handled conservatively on 5-9, raced from way back and lost by less than a length. Should be ready for an aggressive steer tonight.

Race 10 (9:47 PM EDT)

3-Odds On Alexandria (2-1)-Came off cover on 5-8 and rolled by down the lane with a 26.4 last panel to beat 5 from this field. Should land on top or close to it off the gate and could be a clean trip away from its 3rd straight picture. Team Wrenn pupil can close hard and doesn't need to lead every step of the way to come out on top.

Race 11 (10:10 PM EDT)

5-Ponda Jet (6/5)-Has gone gate to wire in the last 4 starts and is completely dialed in. Has been off since 5-3 and meets a different group except for #3-Flagman. Last time, got the top with a 25.4 opening quarter. Could go gate to wire again if comes with the same opening quarter this time.

Race 12 (10:33 PM EDT)

2-Wild Rosa (9/2)-Rosa was racing with the Open 1-2 company and had some success but wasn't very close to winning. This is the 4th start off the bench and did beat better here in the fall. Might take charge early on and could be tough to tackle.
5-Jada Caroline (5/2)-Made its season debut last week, raced inside and finished 2nd despite rolling a 26.1 last quarter. The previous winner isn't in this field and could be even better in its 2nd race since 11-26.

$5.00 Late Pick 4

3,5/3/5/2,5
Total Bet=$20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:27 AM

Scott Shapiro: Preakness Day Late Pick 5 Analysis

May 16, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

There is a plethora of options on Preakness Day for horizontal players, as well as a pair of two-day Pick 5 wagers that include stake races on both Friday and Saturday. However, the one that will have the largest pool will be the Pick 5 that concludes with the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes (G1). It includes a little bit of everything starting with a turf sprint to kick things off, a two-turn turf race for 3YOs and one for older runners, and of course a pair of two-turn races over the main track for 3YOs.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Jim McKay Turf Sprint
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Mattingly; 5 Determined Kingdom
Backups: 4 Witty

Forecast: I will take on the two morning line favorites in this 5-furlong affair over the grass. 2-1-choice #6 Coppola has a ton of early zip and was really good down in Florida this winter, but has tailed off since. There is some other speed in here to keep him honest and he is probably that much more vulnerable over a turf course with some give in it. #2 No Nay Hudson is the 5-2-second choice. He got a perfect trip last time out against lesser at Keeneland. He can win, but at an underlaid price.

I like #8 Mattingly most. The Florida-bred took a big step forward last out in his victory over the Gulfstream Park lawn. He moves up in class, but retains one of the better turf sprint riders in the game in Paco Lopez. The outside draw gives Lopez options out of the gate. At 8-1 he offers some value. #5 Determined Kingdom is a bit more obvious. The son of Animal Kingdom shook off the rust at Laurel last out in the King T. Leatherbury when he was caught wide throughout. He has won 10 of 26 in his career. His best likely beats these. #4 Witty is faster over dirt, but gets Flavien Prat. He should be rolling late if the race plays out like it does on paper.

Race 10: Sir Barton
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9 Just a Fair Shake
Backups: 6 Invictus; 1 Crudo; 3 Bear Claw Necklace

Forecast: #6 Invictus is probably an underlay in this race at his 9-5-morning line price or lower, but that does not mean he is a great fade, especially if you are using prices in some other legs within the sequence. There is no doubt he is bred to be a star being by Into Mischief and out of 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, but he is facing winners AND trying a route of ground for the first time. Plus, the field he beat at Keeneland was not a strong one. He still has questions to answer, but clearly has the highest ceiling.

#9 Just a Fair Shake is the bet for me in this year’s Sir Barton. The $8k son of Laoban has already overachieved with his runner-up effort in the Federico Tesio when he was caught ridiculously wide throughout and still grinded away second at odds of 22-1. The outside draw again is not ideal, but hopefully jockey Jaime Rodriguez can work out a cleaner trip in this colt’s third start off the bench.

Race 11: James W. Murphy
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Reagan’s Wit
Backups: None

Forecast: #7 Reagan’s Wit disappointed last out in the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland where he had no visible excuses as the 9-5-favorite, but his race prior to that should handle this field. The Authentic colt lost by a neck at Tampa in the Columbia, but did so to impressive American Derby (G1) winner Zulu Kingdom. Anything close to that performance and this field is running for second place. If the Cherie DeVaux trainee fails again without trouble, he will be tough to get excited about moving forward.

Race 12: Dinner Party (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Abrumar; 4 Neat
Backups: 1 Divin Propos; 10 Fort Washington

Forecast: There is a serious lack of early speed in this year’s Dinner Party. This could make things difficult for those likely to take the most money, including 5-2-favorite #13 Trikari. The Graham Motion trainee had a fantastic 3YO season, but against a subpar crop. He ran into a buzzsaw last out in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) when finishing third to Carl Spackler, but has lacked speed thus far in 2025 and draws way outside. Last year’s winner #6 Balnikhov will take plenty of public support as well, but that race played out much more favorably for him than I expect this one too. Plus, he it is fair to ask if he has lost a step since his last-to-first win over the soft going in 2024.

I am taking a big swing on top with #5 Abrumar. The Divisidero colt has not been ridden that aggressively of late, but has tactical speed and is part of a Saffie Joseph Jr. uncoupled entry that also includes late running #7 Cash Equity. It makes all the sense for Jose Ortiz to send this horse out of the gate given the variables. Hopefully, he can get us home with a massive separator before the Preakness.

I will also use #4 Neat. Everything went wrong for the son of Constitution last out in the Henry Clark, yet he still only lost by two lengths. He has won 6 of 13 overall for Rob Atras. #1 Divin Propos attracts Luis Saez and draws the inside. That is a dangerous combo in a race that looks void of early speed, so I will include despite not being all that crazy about the races he exits.

Race 13: Preakness (G1)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2 Journalism
Backups: None

Forecast: I was bullish on Clever Again’s chances if Journalism bypassed this race and could understand using him or #1 Goal Oriented as backups or in an effort to beat the Derby runner-up. However, I am all in on the son of Curlin.

This colt ran a big race two weeks ago in May, but had to work harder early on than his connections would have preferred. That does not mean he would have held off Sovereignty, but he almost certainly could have finished with more energy. Journalism does not face anyone the quality of the Derby winner or Baeza in the second jewel of the Triple Crown and appears ready to roll off of the short rest. Hopefully, he does not let me down once again!

Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:28 AM

Scott Shapiro: Preakness Day Exacta-Thon Plays

May 15, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

We are almost to the second leg of the Triple Crown!

Preakness 150 is nearly upon us with the racing in Baltimore kicking off at 10:30 AM eastern on Saturday. The 14-race card includes a plethora of undercard stakes races and makes up the second day of 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion. As I mentioned yesterday in my Black-Eyed Susan Exacta-Thon blog, I am back to talk about a couple plays I am interested in on the Preakness Day card.

If you missed yesterday’s discussion, the goal of the promo is to connect on six $2 exactas over the course of either the Friday or the Saturday Pimlico cards. Those who connect on six each day will split $8,000. An additional $2,000 will go to the customer(s) who hits the most $2 exactas each day.

Race 8: Chick Lang

The pace should be honest in this 6-furlong dash for 3YOs over the main track. 7-2-morning line favorite #8 One Nine Hundred is likely to be one of those in the early mix. The pricey son of Dialed In won for fun at odds-on last out and did so posting a big number on all metrics. If he continues to move forward, he will be a tough customer, but is likely to have to earn it far more than he did at Aqueduct in late March. He may be too fast, but I will try to beat him and some of the other speeds.

#9 Perfect Force is one of two I will key around. The Gun Runner colt returns quickly after breaking slowly and having no real shot over the off track in a Pat Day Mile (G2) dominated by those who were involved early. Both of the D. Wayne Lukas trainee’s wins have come at the 6-furlong distance and with a better break, he should find a comfortable off the pace spot under jockey Nik Juarez. Perfect Force should relish the cutback, especially if they go at it early.

#3 Ancient World is the horse that could be making the last move. The Repole Stable gelding has shown no speed in either of his first two starts for trainer Joe Sharp, but has found a way to win both going away. He needs to avoid leaving himself with too much to do late, but do not be surprised if he is absolutely flying late under Jose Ortiz.

Plays:
Ex Box 3-9
Ex Wheel 3+9 with 3+7+9+11
Ex Wheel 3+7+9+11 with 3+9

Race 12: The Dinner Party (G3)

This 9-furlong affair over the sod was won last year by #6 Balnikhov. The 6YO gelding came from last-to-first over the soft turf to win going away. He is given a 9-2-chance of winning the race in back-to-back years, but I question whether he will get enough pace to run at to be at his best. 5-2-favorite #13 Trikari does not need to be that far out of it, but draws to the far outside in this 13-horse field for Graham Motion. Johnny V is going to have his work cut out for him to win aboard this colt who gets some class relief after running third to Carl Spackler off the bench in the Makers’ Mark Mile (G1) last month.

Given the lack of early speed signed on, I am going to take a big swing with #5 Abrumar. The son of Divisdero’s only start since last summer was a third-place effort in the Appleton at Gulfstream Park in late March where he stalked just off the early pace going one-mile. I see no reason why Saffie Joseph Jr. will not instruct Jose Ortiz to send this colt aggressively with his other runner #7 Cash Equity being more of an off the pace type. If he makes an uncontested lead, he is more than capable of springing the upset.

I will use Abrumar with a few, including #4 Neat. The Constitution colt had an absolutely horrific trip and still only lost by two lengths last out in the Henry Clark at Laurel. He has won 6 of 13 and gets a rider switch to Joel Rosario. #8 Crystal Quest enters this spot in the best form of his career for trainer Michael Trombetta. He gets Paco Lopez after besting Florida-breds in Tampa to kick off his 2025 campaign. Finally, #10 Fort Washington is amongst those likely to be up against from the probable race shape, but has run some real big races already this year and should offer decent value. His jockey Junior Alvarado is coming in hot after his Derby victory aboard Sovereignty. He will need to work out a trip, much like Trikari to have any shot.

Plays:
Exacta Key Box 5 with 4+8+10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:29 AM

Race of the Week: Pimlico's Dinner Party | Saturday

May 14, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Preakness Day at Pimlico rates among the elite days of importance and wagering handle on the American calendar. While the main event in Race 13 features standout favorite Journalism, its lead-in race, the Grade 3 $250,000 DInner Party Stakes, could prove to be far more wide-open in the betting with 13 entrants. Last year's 1-2 finishers are back for another go, but they're just 1-for-15 in the time since and have opened the door to new challengers.

Horseplayers with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can enjoy 2 great promos around Preakness. The $20,000 Exacta-Thon on Friday and Saturday is joined by up to a $10 Money-Back Special on win bets in both the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and Preakness Stakes.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner TRIKARI leads the way, while NEAT is a Grade 2 winner. BALNIKHOV and FORT WASHINGTON have amassed multiple Grade 3 victories. Those listed don't offer a big separation in terms of overall strength of schedule, making this an evenly matched crew.

Pace:
ABRUMAR and IRISH ACES appear most likely to lead this 1-1/8 miles test that really lacks early pressure. TRIKARI could be forward given the lack of pace competition and outside draw that might necessitate some early use for position. This race looks quite capable of being won near the front end.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-DIVIN PROPOS: Expected soft turf will play into the strength of this French export though the distance appears a bit short of his best run. Rail draw and aggressive early jockey Luis Saez may help negate dropping too far back. In the hunt.

#2-CRABS N BEER: Last year's 14-1 runner-up in the Dinner Party has struggled since and exits a disappointing local prep in the Henry S. Clark when ninth. Hard to recommend, though has enjoyed Pimlico sod and traveled over soft going last year.

#3-SIGNATOR: Dirt performer transitioned nicely to grass in winning his last 2 on turf. Won the Dinner Party prep last out in the Henry S. Clark with a rallying score at 1 mile. Needs to pace to go quicker than it projects to have his best chance, however, for reputable trainer Shug McGaughey.

#4-NEAT: Has won of very firm and yielding courses in a well-traveled career. An even fourth last out in the Henry S. Clark at Laurel as the 2-1 favorite and this miler will see how much finish he can muster over 9 furlongs for the first time. Joel Rosario takes the call.

#5-ABRUMAR: Potential pace player for Saffie Joseph Jr. was a solid third last year on Preakness Day in the Jimmy Murphy Stakes against then-fellow 3-year-olds. Promising third against elders for the first time in March in Gulfstream's Appleton and has won in this second-off-the-layoff form cycle in the past. Threat under Jose Ortiz.

#6-BALNIKHOV: Defending champion won this race over a total bog last year, so no course condition should be considered out of touch for him. But it's the recent form of this $1.1 million earner that is a concern at age 6. Flavien Prat rides for Phil D'Amato, which never hurts, but prefer others in better recent patterns.

#7-CASH EQUITY: Consistent 7-year-old just hasn't had a victory in his last 17 starts and that makes him tough to recommend on top despite the Ramsey-Saffie Joseph Jr.-Irad Ortiz Jr troika. First trip over the Pimlico course, though French pedigree and distant experience back in 2020-'21 overseas may indicate a liking for the softer going.

#8-CRYSTAL QUEST: Twice a runner-up over soft going behind Dinner Party return rival Fulmineo, Maryland-based trainer Mike Trombetta brings this one home off a career-best win in the Turf Classic at Tampa Bay Downs. Paco Lopez rides the deep closer, which may not be the perfect style fit with that front-running jockey, but there's a lot to like with last year's Jimmy Murphy alum who handles this kind of course.

#9-IRISH ACES: Aggressively handled on the front end at Keeneland last time out in allowance company and banking on that same sort of approach Saturday. Jockey Umberto Rispoli will be aboard for the first time as he prepares for Preakness favorite Journalism in the next on the card. Many of this one's best races have been with Lasix, but has won without it. Trainer Brendan Walsh exits a career-best Keeneland meeting when he tied Brad Cox for the title.

#10-FORT WASHINGTON: Late-running veteran scored the Grade 3 Canadian Turf by a nose last out and has a penchant for close shaves. Last 3 wins have been by a head, nose and dead-heat among 5 tight photos in his last 12 starts. Damside pedigree hints that he'll handle the soft going for Shug McGaughey.

#11-FULMINEO: Back-to-back soft turf wins last year in the Jimmy Murphy on the Preakness undercard and subsequent Boston Stakes at Colonial Downs give confidence with the conditions. Respected Mid-Atlantic turf trainer Arnaud Delacour got the necessary prep from this one when a rallying third in the Henry S. Clark after a about 7 months away. Should be a major contender even if late-running style doesn't get a perfect set-up.

#12-DESVIO: Last year's Kent Stakes winner and Virginia Derby third-place finisher never threatened at big odds in the Henry S. Clark last time out to open his 4-year-old season. Scored a soft-turf win in allowance company on the 2024 Preakness undercard, so he'll be acclimated to the situation. Recent form indicates he'll need major improvement.

#13-TRIKARI: One of the very best 3-year-old American turfers of 2024, this Graham Motion trainee returned April 11 at Keeneland with a credible third in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile behind an elite performance from Carl Spackler. Difficult post position for the morning line favorite and his best races do appear to be over firmer turf than he'll see Saturday. Can't take a short price with confidence but also can't negate his chances with conviction.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
No cinches here, but IRISH ACES should get a great trip near the front and has 7 superfecta finishes in his last 8 starts. Hangs for a share ... if he doesn't take them all the way.

Best Longshot Contender:
Pace players IRISH ACES (10-1) and ABRUMAR (20-1) would fit this billing.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$1 trifecta key IRISH ACES over FORT WASHINGTON, DIVIN PROPOS, FULMINEO, TRIKARI, ABRUMAR, CRYSTAL QUEST, NEAT ($42). $34 win IRISH ACES. $2 exacta backwheel ALL-IRISH ACES ($24).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Legacy Downs
PURCHASE

Legacy Downs - Race 3	$1 Pick 4 / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Claiming $2,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $7,100 • Post: 2:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500 PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED A RACE IN THE STATE OF NEBRASKA IN 2025.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NASTY EXAGGERATOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNFATHOMED: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. INCITATUS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JAKE THE GREAT: Today is a sprint and the horse 's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. NASTY EXAGGERATOR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within hal f a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
7	UNFATHOMED	5/2	4/1
1	INCITATUS	7/2	9/2
2	JAKE THE GREAT	9/2	6/1
4	NASTY EXAGGERATOR	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	NASTY EXAGGERATOR	4	10/1	Front-runner	69	69	53.8	49.6	36.1
2	JAKE THE GREAT	2	9/2	Stalker	82	75	29.7	70.8	65.8
7	UNFATHOMED	7	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	81	76	60.2	66.6	63.6
8	GERDY'S BOY	8	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	59	48	58.1	61.7	50.2
1	INCITATUS	1	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	88	80	46.6	71.6	64.6
3	CASPER JUSTICE	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	78	33.4	51.8	40.3
6	BIG HEARTED FACTOR	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	62	27.7	57.4	46.9
5	MONGOLIAN MOON	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	68	23.0	57.8	50.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Energy Downs 307 Racing
PURCHASE

Energy Downs 307 Racing - Race 8	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / $1 Trifecta
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 63 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 4:04P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. TRACK ROBBER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TRACK ROBBER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. EL SIETE LEGUAS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carryin g at least 120 lbs.
3	TRACK ROBBER	8/5	5/2
1	EL SIETE LEGUAS	9/2	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	TRACK ROBBER	3	8/5	Front-runner	72	54	79.4	57.0	53.0
8	THREE SEVENS	8	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	55	35.4	42.8	35.3
1	EL SIETE LEGUAS	1	9/2	Trailer	73	63	13.3	59.7	57.2
6	CHIEF HARLAN	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	58	54	21.0	42.4	33.9
5	CHICKEN NUGGET	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	23.5	28.3	19.8
2	ZIP IT KAREN	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	26	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	SULA PEAK ROAD	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	42	35	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: NOBLE LAKER (12/1) [Jockey: Carrillo Daniel - Trainer: Cornia Andee].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $52500 Class Rating: 101

MTH - R8 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 17 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 BOUNCER 7/2
# 1 CEEPEEGEE 9/2
# 6 VAMOS VIEJO 5/2

BOUNCER looks quite good to best this field. He has to be given consideration given the very good speed figs. Jockey's recent return on investment figures make this gelding a strong wager. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the race. CEEPEEGEE - With a strong 97 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Strong selection to take this race going in a turf sprint. VAMOS VIEJO - Very strong choice to take this race going in a turf sprint.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:07pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 44

Rating:

#5 HURRICANE JANE (ML=2/1)

HURRICANE JANE - I think this filly is very fit right now. I like the fact that Gallimore brings her back to a race so quickly. Taking a big drop in Equibase class figure points from her May 7th race at Parx Racing. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MISS RAUCUS (ML=6/5), #1 LOOKIN AT STAR (ML=5/1),

MISS RAUCUS - Finished fourth last time out of the box. Would have to improve to land in the top three in today's race. LOOKIN AT STAR - This filly almost certainly won't be right there at the finish.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 HURRICANE JANE to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $81000 Class Rating: 78

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 SAIL WITH THE WIND 10/1
# 9 TRAIL OF GOLD 6/1
# 5 RED BURGUNDY 3/1

SAIL WITH THE WIND figures to be the bet in here especially at such a decent 10/1. Expect this racer to be right there at the finishing post versus these mounts. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this horse a contender. With a strong 91 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. TRAIL OF GOLD - This horse could surprise this lot at a nice price. Look for a formidable pace improvement from this pony who enters on Lasix today. RED BURGUNDY - Her 74 average has this filly with among the most competitive Speed Figures for this event. A solid 86 avg Equibase class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge against this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 4:48pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#4 HELMS DEEP (ML=2/1)
#1 GRAND PICK (ML=9/2)

HELMS DEEP - Stand by this horse. No other viable speed gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. This one has increased his speed figures in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is just want you want for a winner today. GRAND PICK - Using this jockey/conditioner combination is a good decision. Always beware of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. This gelding is in good form. Ran third on Apr 29th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HENRYTHETHIRD (ML=5/2), #2 NIFTY (ML=3/1), #5 DANCE A DINI (ML=4/1),

HENRYTHETHIRD - Run-of-the-mill speed fig last race out at Penn National at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't believe this racer will improve too much today. NIFTY - Didn't show much run last time out. Probably won't do much running in today's race. DANCE A DINI - This horse just hasn't looked ready lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 HELMS DEEP to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:35 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #6

#6 Ekati's Way	He turns back from a 10-furlong run for this first start of the year, but he has flashed enough tactical pace to sit close at these sharper trips and scored sprinting here a couple times last season. Think he hits hard today.
#1 Without Objection	I'm hoping this one's reliable Oaklawn form will command enough action to leave the top choice at a mildly playable price, but I also wouldn't argue too hard with anyone taking a stand in this direction in what feels like a two-horse race.
#3 Sweet as Sin	He's got a bit of versatile pace that should let his rider attack or press, and he was pretty sharp in his local debut here when scoring last time out.
Race Summary	Ekati's Way has done really good work here and has thrived at a couple different types of trips. He's in line for a great run of things if he's ready to roll off the bench.

Thistledown - Race #7

#1 Tier One	He's tactical enough to stay close while tucked in behind the pace drawn just outside of him, and he can turn the tables on that guy after they finished close together last out.
#2 Magical Monarch	Guessing this one runs through one of these two logical players near the fence. This guy has the most committed pace in the bunch and could sneak away if he doesn't take any real heat from the next guy...
#5 Swing State	There are a couple of interesting first-over runs on his page that suggest he might be able to track 'Monarch and take a shot. Wouldn't be completely out of the question, but he's definitely more of a B-player for me.
Race Summary	Tier One should trip out from the inside, and he looks like the right one to reel in Magical Monarch today.

Thistledown - Race #8

#1 Balki Bartokomous	There are a couple of forward-looking works on the tab ahead of this, and I'm not super excited about a handful of the logical players in here who have been somewhat one-paced late in their tries so far.
#8 Mor Stormy	His better stuff keeps him in the mix, but he still hasn't been a serious threat to a winner when plugging away for a couple of distant runner-up shares in his last two. He can obviously win this, I'm just not that enthusiastic about him -- you can have him today.
#2 Finally Friday	Depending on how the rail runner goes in the first furlong, this one might wind up as some of the inside pace, and I like the way he stepped forward in the second career start. Another move in the right direction could get him home today.
Race Summary	Balki Bartokomous might be quick enough to work out a trip from the fence at first asking, and he might be the right new one to get the best of the other logical pair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-17-2025, 07:36 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#7 DIXIE PREACH (6-1)	Piles up the checks, good spot to end 0-for-9 run on the lawn, changes riders.
#4 DISATTACHED (9-5)	Numbers translate well on the class drop, wears blinkers for the first time.
#8 BANDOOLA (8-1)	Dueled long way and just missed in the same spot, draws outside.
Race Summary	DIXIE PREACH made middle moves to the lead in his last two route races, the latest at one mile on the turf. The same type of move into a projected moderate pace could lead to the winners’ circle today. Bet to win and place and play 7-4 and 7-8 exactas.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#2 MOHAWK RIVER (4-1)	Class relief could be the answer to upstaging several runner-up finishes this year.
#1 PLEX (9-2)	Finished third from on and off the pace in his last two long sprint attempts, moves inside.
#7 FIRSTFLASHOFMOON (6-1)	Rallied for pair of seconds at 7F despite slow starts, gets Zayas.
Race Summary	MOHAWK RIVER took money and ran second three times in his last five starts at the $25,000 level. He runs for half the claiming price today in his 18th start overall and first this year in a long sprint. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-7 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#2 OUR DELRAY (7-5)	Joseph-trained colt is working up a storm for his debut and gets Lasix.
#1 KEEP ON MOVING (2-1)	Heavily bet fave in both starts, led at stretch call, adds blinkers.
#3 LUZ DE GUIA (4-1)	In range of leaders, lacked kick in useful 6-1/2F debut.
Race Summary	OUR DELRAY debuts as a 3-year-old with a pair of fast :35-2/5 and :47-1/5 moves from a series of workouts at Palm Meadows this year. The money is likely to show for the son of Tiz The Law in the barn of Saffie Joseph Jr., whose Maiden Special Weight runners have 38 wins from their last 160 starts. Bet to win and place and play 2-1 and 2-3 exactas.