Sunday 5/18/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NCAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

---

May 18, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Northfield Park has a big 16-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

1-Survivin Fire (4-1)-Ships back from ScD after being stuck with post 10 and that helped snap a 2-race win streak. Has a perfect 2 for 2 record at Nfld, could bounce back and take another picture here.
5-Anna Loves Bananas (2-1)-Leaving from post 7, got on the engine and went to the 3/4's in 1.23 at MVR and faded to lose by less than a length. Looking for an aggressive steer and to not burn much gas getting on the engine.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

1-Irresistible Son (7-1)-Will toss last, lost all chance after being knocked out with an xi. Won the previous race versus this kind leaving from post 2 and taking charge early on. Should look to follow the same game plan.
2-Truly Unbelievable (2-1)-Went the back half in 57.3 last time to post a win in the same race as the one above. Loses Ronnie Wrenn but picks up Brett Miller. Odds on winner will be a small price, and the race will likely go through this mare.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

4-Euphoria Rising (3-1)-Saw action on 4-14 at MVR and then qualified at ScD with a nice tune-up on 5-12. Those last efforts make this the 2nd chalk in race without much form. Using at what should be a square price and will look for Miller to being headed for the point off the gate.
6-Dancin Suzy (12-1)-Suzy steps-up to face tougher coming off a nice gate to wire score. Will take a swing at a price as Justin Irvine has gate speed to use to get a close-up seat. Needs the right trip but best to not dismiss.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

4-Spaaaanzano (8/5)-Won at 1/5 in last and now faces Open Handicap company for the 1st time. Has hit the board in all 4 Nfld races and has taken 2 pictures. Aaron Merriman sticks and has good tactical speed. Gets a post edge on the 4 horses to the outside that are proven contenders at this level, and that could be the winning difference.
6-Cornstar (25-1)-Comes back from the Meadows, wasn't bet and lost all chance after breaking stride. Fits at this level and will use at a price with Brett Miller between the pipes. Has won 7 of 23 at Nfld and if the fractions are hot this mare could be the best down the lane.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,5/1,2/4,6/4,6
Total Bet=$16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Burke | All My Bets | Sha Tin | May 18, 2025

---

May 17, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

Close out Preakness Day in style with some action from Sha Tin in Hong Kong! Hopefully you’re riding high with a flush bankroll after a long day at Old Hilltop and are ready to parlay your winnings into even more cold, hard cash. First post at Sha Tin is 12:45 am ET.

Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +64%
Highlights: 25/1 Exacta and 18/1 Quinella played at Happy Valley on Wednesday

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – May 18 (First Post: 12:45AM ET)
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.

Race 4 | 1800M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 2,3,4 – 0.5 units

Notes: These three runners rate a clear step above the field in the Power Ratings, and we’ve got two good morning line prices along with the chalk. While none stand out from each other, these three should be played together and we’re
going to hope the two prices sneak in.

Race 5 | 1000M | Class 4
Exacta – 1 w/ 3 – 1 unit

Notes: My Power Ratings have this race ending in a clean one-two punch with the field all well below these top runners. The prices aren’t anything to write home about, but we’ll play a full unit and try to make the most of a strong opinion.

Race 7 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – 2
Exacta Box – 1,2 – 0.5 units

Notes: The numbers came up with the chalk and a 26/1 morning line in 2 – BUNDLE OF CHARM who’s in the best barn in Hong Kong and gets a very respectable mount in Hugh Bowman. At those odds, we gotta play to win and make sure he’s in our exacta along with the market’s preference.

Race 10 | 1600M | Class 3
Quinella Box – 2,4,8 – 0.5 units

Notes: My numbers have a five-way even split that includes the two shortest prices on the morning line. The other three, 2 – HUGE WAVE (17/2), 4 – NOBLE PURSUIT (26/1), and 8 – WINNING GOLD (11/1) are all in the same class with prices much more worthy of chasing. I’ll play all three in the Quinella and hope for a splash!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

---

Santa Anita - Race #4

#3 Miso Phansy	Hoping she'll offer an appealing enough price against this crew thanks to the presence of the next two listed here -- maybe this one comes along late with some proven route form.
#1 Jungle Peace	She has been very sharp over this turf course, running her local record to a perfect 3-for-3 with that nice stakes score last time out. Distance is the real question here, but she can be tough.
#2 As Catch Can	She has run into a couple of decent players along the way, and she ran well on the turf here a couple starts back. In the mix.
Race Summary	Miso Phansy could be the third choice on the board here, and I'm hoping her finishing route form will help her a bit here in a race where Jungle Peace at least has a question to answer.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#4 Uncle Evco	He's up in class for this one off the claim, but he has a couple decent turf running lines against better groups in the past, and his baseline grass run might be enough to handle this crew.
#5 Djoser	He finished up OK at Turf Paradise in the debut run, and I wonder if he can get past a few of these late at a decent number on the board.
#8 Nation	He's probably supposed to handle these with one of his typical efforts, but I worry the price is going to be short even off that fading main-track run last time out.
Race Summary	Uncle Evco caught a tough winner in the two-back dud, but his turf form has otherwise been pretty solid -- and all of it has come against much better than he's finding here. Worth the look today.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#1 Madonna of Loreto	She ran on OK in a couple tough spots at Del Mar last year, and she seems capable of handling this group if she comes back with something similar while dropping out of stakes company.
#9 Sunglow	Price probably won't be much here, but she's got solid enough recent form to be a player again today. Still, I'm worried about the fact that she's given away ground in both starts here.
#6 Gladly	Would want her on the reach tickets at least, even if she might be better when prepped for something a bit longer later. Take a look on the tote and track.
Race Summary	Madonna of Loreto gets back in with friends today after last racing in stakes company last summer, and she seems to have enough talent to be competitive with this kind.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 5	Leg E of the Cross Country Pick 5
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $81,000 • Post: 4:43P
BAQ - R8 - (RAIL AT 9 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT ONE MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FIDELIGHTCAYUT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FIDELIGHTCAYUT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	FIDELIGHTCAYUT	8/1	2/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FIDELIGHTCAYUT	13	8/1	Front-runner	100	92	98.4	92.4	87.4
5	SKY MASTERSON	4	20/1	Front-runner	87	89	82.2	82.4	68.4
6	ALAN TURING	5	15/1	Front-runner	77	77	79.6	73.0	59.0
4	LEO'S REWARD	3	5/1	Stalker	89	87	77.8	72.1	63.1
2	CALLING CARD	1	4/1	Stalker	85	88	70.2	68.3	55.8
8	CALVIN'S RIDE	7	20/1	Stalker	82	76	63.2	67.8	44.8
7	SOLO EMPIRE	6	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	77	85.6	69.6	54.1
10	CHARLES J	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	81	68.9	73.7	50.7
11	MO KREESA	10	20/1	Trailer	66	64	70.6	50.9	22.4
13	EL DE LARRY	12	30/1	Trailer	89	86	67.8	82.0	71.0
12	RHETORICAL	11	6/5	Trailer	91	93	66.3	88.9	78.4
1A	CORVUS	15	8/1	Trailer	86	76	59.4	68.4	50.4
9	LANDAUER	8	20/1	Trailer	83	77	57.7	70.2	52.2
3	A LISTER	2	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	83	83.0	69.2	55.7
15	INCANTATION	14	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	82	79.4	69.6	52.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Legacy Downs
PURCHASE

Legacy Downs - Race 5	$2 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Claiming $2,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $7,100 • Post: 3:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500 PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED A RACE IN THE STATE OF NEBRASKA IN 2025.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. LIE AND DENY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LIE AND DENY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CHARLIE'S CREED: Horse ran ks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. TIZKANDOIT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of to day's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
7	LIE AND DENY	25/1	3/1
10	CHARLIE'S CREED	3/1	6/1
1	TIZKANDOIT	2/1	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	GOLD CRUSHER	9	6/1	Front-runner	84	75	65.0	58.6	50.1
6	B T'S BAD BOY	6	15/1	Front-runner	75	68	58.0	52.4	40.9
5	PATIO'S PORCH	5	8/1	Front-runner	79	61	37.6	60.4	53.4
1	TIZKANDOIT	1	2/1	Stalker	73	67	54.2	61.2	49.7
7	LIE AND DENY	7	25/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	89	78.2	65.2	58.7
10	CHARLIE'S CREED	10	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	64	31.0	62.6	56.6
8	OBVIOUSLY TOO	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	74	44.0	56.2	43.2
4	LUCKY BREAK	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	78	36.8	52.4	35.4
2	LEVEL	2	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	81	63	28.2	56.4	45.4
3	SILVER AND ACES	3	25/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	39	13.8	51.2	34.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belmont at the Big A - Race #8 - Post: 4:43pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $81,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#1 FIDELIGHTCAYUT (ML=8/1)
#12 RHETORICAL (ML=6/5)
#13 EL DE LARRY (ML=30/1)


FIDELIGHTCAYUT - My partners and I have made cash playing ponies with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This colt fits the bill. You should toss out that last clash at Tampa Bay Downs on the soft turf where he finished outside the top 3. Should do well today on a non-sloppy track. RHETORICAL - I'll forgive that last race on August 24th when he failed backers as the public choice. That race was pretty good for an Allowance race and this gelding's speed rating was solid. Owns the highest speed fig on the turf at this distance. Have to watch for this animal on the grass. Last race at Saratoga, scored a big turf figure. Have to think he can do it again today. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per start in this one. EL DE LARRY - The return on investment when Torrealba and Bailes get together is fantastic.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CALLING CARD (ML=4/1), #4 LEO'S REWARD (ML=5/1), #1A CORVUS (ML=8/1),

LEO'S REWARD - This mount ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time around the track. He shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's race running that figure. CORVUS - Will probably be taught to pay some respect to his elders today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - EL DE LARRY - Better than looked last race out. Expect a nice effort this time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 Entry is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,12,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,12,13] Total Cost: $6

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

---

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Miles City

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 1 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 54

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHTS, 126 LBS. IF FAILS TO FILL MONTANA BRED BY 9:00 AM. RACE WILL BE TAKEN OPEN, MONTANA BREDS PREFERRED.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MOONSHYNIN DIVA 2/1
# 1 LEO DASH 7/2
# 6 TENS FORTUNES ANGEL 4/1

I give the nod to MOONSHYNIN DIVA here. She has been running soundly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the top in this field. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest. Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group of animals in her last outing. LEO DASH - The rapid return to the races points to a formidable effort this time out. TENS FORTUNES ANGEL - Conway is trying to prove victorious with this one by bringing him back so soon.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 1 - SO - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 101

SA - R6 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000 (HORSES ENTERED FOR THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 COMMANDER (FR) 12/1
# 1 REGAL PATRIOT 7/2
# 7 DON'T SWEAR DAVE 8/1

I've got to go with COMMANDER (FR) and is a solid value bet given the line at 12/1. Trainer has strong win rate (26 percent) at this distance and surface. Palma has this gelding racing well and is a formidable selection based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figs garnered in sprint races lately. Risk takers get an edge when playing this trainer in a turf sprint race. REGAL PATRIOT - He looks quite good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. The speed figure of 104 from his most recent contest looks formidable in here. DON'T SWEAR DAVE - Ought to be given a shot - I like the figures from the last contest. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 5:01pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 88 King Corrie S.

Rating:

#3 MADAME OBEY (ML=4/1)


MADAME OBEY - Good return on investment for this rider and conditioner tandem. Dropping 7 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 THUNDERING (ML=9/5), #5 CHURCH AND STATE (ML=2/1), #6 GRAFFITI WRITER (ML=6/1),

THUNDERING - Just cannot wager on this racer. Didn't show me anything in the last race or on November 3rd. CHURCH AND STATE - Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's race. GRAFFITI WRITER - Tough to support any less than sharp equine in a short distance race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 MADAME OBEY on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - May 18


May. 17, 2025









Race #1
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:00 PM ET
$61,000.00

Race 1 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	6-5	7	Kikuride	J J Hernandez
Place	7-2	2	Chilly Philly	A Ayuso
Show	9-2	6	How About Pavel	U Rispoli
Wild card	4-1	5	Nells Legacy	A Fresu
Alternate 1	15-1	3	Booster Club	K Kimura
Alternate 2	20-1	4	Broadway Venus	R Gutierrez

Exacta 7-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/6/7 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:32 PM ET
Best Bet #1 LIQUID SPIRIT
$23,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	7-2	1	Liquid Spirit	K Frey
Place	6-5	2	Isabel Ludlow	A Fresu
Show	4-1	5	Annies Joy	A Ayuso
Wild card	9-2	3	Toulouse Detrac	A Lezcano
Alternate 1	20-1	6	Ryders Candy	T Baze
Alternate 2	6-1	4	Thirsty Destiny	S Carmona

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:05 PM ET
$61,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-5	4	Cash Call	J J Hernandez
Place	10-1	2	Happy Sue	A Espinoza
Show	8-1	1	Knightwithlouis	W Antongeorgi III
Wild card	9-2	6	Hot Girl Walk	A Fresu
Alternate 1	7-2	7	Sea Runner	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	15-1	3	Border Control	A Ayuso

Exacta 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
Race #4
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 05:36 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 4 Stakes

Win	5-1	3	Miso Phansy	H I Berrios
Place	10-1	4	Firenze Flavor	D Van Dyke
Show	6-5	1	Jungle Peace	U Rispoli
Wild card	2-1	2	As Catch Can	K Kimura
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Schilflied	A Fresu
Alternate 2	12-1	5	Atia	J J Hernandez

Exacta 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:08 PM ET
$60,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	6	Brandons Girl	J Laprida
Place	3-1	5	Tiger Fire	A Ayuso
Show	9-2	4	Royal Dusty	K Kimura
Wild card	5-1	9	Aryas Ride	R Gonzalez
Alternate 1	6-1	7	Hurricane Layla	R Gutierrez
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Gretas Ghost	D Perovic

Exacta 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/6 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX
Race #6
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:38 PM ET
Best Bet #1 REGAL PATRIOT
$37,000.00

Race 6 Starter Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	1	Regal Patriot	T J Pereira
Place	5-2	6	Sharp Aza Tack	H I Berrios
Show	3-1	4	Whatmakessammyrun	A Fresu
Wild card	4-1	3	Doncic	J J Hernandez
Alternate 1	8-1	7	Dont Swear Dave	V Espinoza
Alternate 2	12-1	8	Commander	A Ayuso

Exacta 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:08 PM ET
Best Bet #5 SUPERNAL
$61,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-2	5	Supernal	T J Pereira
Place	6-1	8	Disobey	T Baze
Show	3-1	4	Devil Among Us	E A Maldonado
Wild card	12-1	9	Unbridled Vision	R Gutierrez
Alternate 1	9-2	7	Pipers Causeway	A Aguilar
Alternate 2	30-1	6	Runkerry	C Herrera

Exacta 5-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/8 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX
Race #8
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 07:38 PM ET
$33,000.00

Race 8 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-2	6	Ghost Coast	J J Hernandez
Place	9-5	8	Nation	U Rispoli
Show	5-1	7	Crazy Cavalier	A Fresu
Wild card	6-1	4	Uncle Evco	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	10-1	10	Tapit Dynasty	J Laprida
Alternate 2	12-1	11	Supreme Coast	K Kimura

Exacta 6-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 08:08 PM ET
$15,000.00

Race 9 Claiming

Win	7-2	3	Supermazel	A Ayuso
Place	5-2	9	Brother o Brien	J J Hernandez
Show	5-1	2	Adios Nicanor	C Herrera
Wild card	8-1	4	Abadon	A Aguilar
Alternate 1	5-1	10	Vinny the Coin	W R Orantes
Alternate 2	6-1	8	Union Wave	W Antongeorgi III

Exacta 3-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/9 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX
Race #10
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:38 PM ET
$60,000.00

Race 10 Maiden Special Weight

Win	9-5	9	Sunglow	J J Hernandez
Place	9-2	14	Current Affair	A Espinoza
Show	6-1	2	Shez the Law	T J Pereira
Wild card	8-1	7	Storm Lady	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	8-1	12	Vinalia	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	5-1	3	Auntie	K Frey

Exacta 9-14 BOX, 14-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/9/14 BOX, 2/7/14 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 18


May. 17, 2025









Race #1
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 12:45 PM ET
Best Bet #4 TIGER MOON
$55,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	3-1	4	Tiger Moon	J L Ortiz
Place	2-1	5	Swiss Slang	A Achard
Show	5-2	1	Ethereal Road	L Machado
Wild card	12-1	6	Hoodlum	C A Torres
Alternate 1	5-1	7	Papa Yo	L Saez
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Big Paper	J C Bealmear

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 01:14 PM ET
$35,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Claiming

Win	6-1	3	Union Dame	E Esquivel
Place	6-1	2	Red Royalty	J A Torres
Show	5-1	10	Judys Flyer	M Gutierrez
Wild card	3-1	6	Fifth of May	L Machado
Alternate 1	8-1	4	Sweet Sib	D Cannon
Alternate 2	15-1	9	Malice Mama	C Barbosa

Exacta 3-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/10 BOX, 2/6/10 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 01:43 PM ET
$78,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	5-2	7	Dai Vernon	L Saez
Place	6-1	3	Special Dispatch	E Morales
Show	3-1	4	Winters Lion	J L Ortiz
Wild card	6-1	2	Mo Hope	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	4-1	5	Realignment	B Curtis
Alternate 2	10-1	6	Neon Nights	J A Torres

Exacta 7-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/7 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:13 PM ET
$78,000.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	7-2	6	Cant Hush This	L Saez
Place	5-2	2	Chasing Time	J L Ortiz
Show	4-1	4	Big Hat Willie	E Morales
Wild card	3-1	3	Sinners Sin	R Bejarano
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Gunner Bay	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	10-1	5	Swift as I Am	I Moncada

Exacta 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 02:45 PM ET
$76,000.00

Race 5 Starter Allowance

Win	8-5	4	Keen Cat	B J Hernandez Jr.
Place	7-2	5	Eddie M	A I Diaz
Show	3-1	2	Gilmore	L Saez
Wild card	9-2	1	American Law	C J Lanerie
Alternate 1	5-1	6	Systemic Change	K J Asmussen
Alternate 2	20-1	3	Shipman	E Morales

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:18 PM ET
$86,000.00

Race 6 Claiming

Win	3-1	7	Gardiner	J L Ortiz
Place	5-1	1	Charbonnay	A Beschizza
Show	7-2	2	Complex Music	K J Asmussen
Wild card	9-2	3	Gettinby	L Saez
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Putting Eagle	A Cedillo
Alternate 2	5-1	6	Mo Hair Sam	W A Rodriguez

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 03:50 PM ET
Best Bet #3 SUDDEN SWITCH
$134,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-2	3	Sudden Switch	J L Ortiz
Place	3-1	6	Impel	F Geroux
Show	7-2	8	Windy Walk	L Saez
Wild card	4-1	4	Amber Cascade	C A Torres
Alternate 1	12-1	2	Indy Label	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	10-1	7	Ba Dee Yah	E Morales

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
Race #8
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 04:22 PM ET
$127,000.00

Race 8 Allowance

Win	3-1	9	My Boy Tony	L Saez
Place	7-2	7	Steadfast Resolve	J L Ortiz
Show	8-1	3	Presider	B Curtis
Wild card	12-1	4	Fort Thomas	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	4-1	10	Navy Seal	L Machado
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Mount Rundle	A Achard

Exacta 9-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/7/9 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:55 PM ET
Best Bet #4 CAMP HALE
$120,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	4	Camp Hale	B J Hernandez Jr.
Place	9-2	2	Evan On Earth	L Saez
Show	5-1	14	Bobs Carrot	J L Ortiz
Wild card	4-1	6	Valiant Humor	F Geroux
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Ship Ship Hooray	L Machado
Alternate 2	8-1	11	Reaction	J L Ortiz

Exacta 4-2 BOX, 2-14 BOX, 14-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/14 BOX, 2/6/14 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 18


May. 16, 2025









By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) Ethereal Road has the rail and should work out a winning trip. (4) Tiger Moon drops and should be a threat here. (7) Papa Yo could wake up in this field. (3) Big Paper should pose a late threat. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-7.
3rd race – (4) Winters Lion drops into claimer and figures to prove best. (7) Dai Vernon flopped in a stakes. Fits better here. (6) Neon Nights can bounce back with a better showing here. (2) Mo Hope has speed and can hang around until the end. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-7.
5^th race – (4) Keen Cat missed by a head last time and should pull out a win here. (2) Gilmore was second last time and should be the main rival. (3) Shipman may like the added distance. (6) Systemic Change has enough late speed to be a threat. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-6.
7th race – (3) Sudden Switch is 2-for-2 with easy wins. Should make it 3-for-3 here. (6) Impel may appreciate the added distance. (4) Amber Cascade is consistent and belongs in the exotics. (7) Ba Dee Yah can enter the picture late. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-6-7.
9th race – (2) Evan On Earth missed by a nose back in November and is working nicely for his comeback. (4) Camp Hale was second in four of five starts and is the one to fear. (11) Reaction seems set for a strong career debut. (12) Taylor’s Version is another interesting first-time starter. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-11-12.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park at Aqueduct Hotlist - May 18


May. 16, 2025









By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Alw 81000, 6 ? F] – (7) Princess Mischief (B) broke last, got steadied in tight quarters, and rallied to just miss by a half-length. (8) Sassy Shenanigans (B) was steadied to last at the start and finished second well clear of the rest of the field. (6) Vehemente hit the board in all but one of her seven career starts with a starter allowance victory last time against open company. (2) Dangerous Affair broke her maiden for $40,000, moved up to finish second twice against open company, and makes her first start against NY-breds now.
5^th race [Md 50000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Wake Up Lauren (B) finished second far ahead of the rest of the field in her second start for a new trainer. (1) Yolo ships up from Kentucky after a four-month layoff. He debuted with two races on the grass and was second on the Tapeta at Turfway Park in Janaury. (9) American Kestrel set the pace in March at Gulfstream Park and finished a neck behind in third for a $50,000 tag. (11) Competitive Threat was third in a maiden special weight on the grass in March.
6^th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 3/16 mi TURF] – (4) Van Ginkel moved from dirt to turf in his second start and finished behind a horse that went on to win again in his next race. (2) Gun Barrel City debuted in September on the turf at 5-2 and was fourth. He makes his first start of 2025 has a new gelding with Lasix for the first time. (11) Tiz Fervor improved after each race and was a close second last month at Tampa Downs. (10) De La Cruz came back from a six month layoff to make his first start of the year when he had the lead and battled down the stretch for third.
7^th race [NY, Alw 81000, 7F] – (8) Runandscore (C) was bet down from 6-1 to 9-2, got too far behind in a sprint race, but still rallied late for third. (7) Swift Magic (B) raced very wide and was second best well clear of the others. (1) Ball Don’t Lie came east after four starts at Santa Anita which included a speedy second in the Laz Barrera Stakes. (5) Smilensaycheese won his debut at Saratoga and then raced in a series of NY-bred stakes.
Best bets: Princess Mischief (1^st); Van Ginkel (6^th). Best value: Wake Up Lauren (5^th); Runandscore (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(7)	Princess Mischief	B on 4/13	1	Broke last, steadied in tight, rallied to just miss.
(8)	Sassy Shenanigans	B on 3/21	1	Steadied back to last but got a clear second.
(7)	Wake Up Lauren	B on 4/12	5	She got second in her second start for a new trainer.
(8)	Runandscore	C on 4/27	7	Got too far behind in a sprint but rallied late.
(7)	Swift Magic	B on 4/11	7	Raced six wide and wasfar ahead for second.
(14)	Incantation	B on 4/17	8	Entered for Main Track Only.