Sunday 5/25/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 08:09 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/25/25

May 25, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Sunday, May 25 2024
Santa Anita Park

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Trump Era; Southern Melodee
Backups: none.

Forecast: Trump Era ran a winning race when second in his debut (well clear of the rest) and will be tough to deny with a similar effort today. He’s actually likely to run better, not worse. Southern Melodee has done some good work in the morning leading up to his debut and should fire a good shot. He has a nice way of going and appears to be a quick sort, so we have to use him somewhere on our ticket.

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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-We’re in Trouble
Backups: 5-Virat.

Forecast: We’re In Trouble is a genuine and consistent turf sprinter and has never been worse than second in four starts over the local lawn. He’s a first time blinker user and may display a bit more gate speed today, though his style as a late runner has done him quite well, so far. We’re expecting him to be along in time while offering reasonable value at or near his morning line of 2-1.

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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Splendora; 6-Seismic Beauty.
Backups: none.

Forecast:: Trainer B. Baffert has two bullets to fire in this year’s Santa Margarita S.-G2 and either one can win. Splendora has been facing the best in her division of late and won’t have Kopion ort Richi to worry about today. She’s fast on numbers and projects to be prominent throughout. Seismic Beauty gets a class test after demolishing a softer allowance field by 10 lengths with a high quality speed figure. A bullet workout since raced indicate she’s nowhere near done improving.

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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Oveta’s Hobby; 4-Headed for Om
Backups: 1-Lovin’ On the Run.

Forecast: Oveta’s Holiday returns to the flat course and is nicely drawn outside. She should be on or near the lead throughout. J. Sadler’s other entrant – Headed for Om – is a major player as well and based strictly on speed figures is the one to fear most. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and both should be used on the top line.

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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3-Can’t Help Myself; 1-Flashy Fritz.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Here’s a challenging baby race with a number of possibilities among the newcomers. We’ll try to get by using just two. Can’t Help Myself is bred to be quick (Violence) and has trained well enough to win at first asking for a barn that scored with a first time juvenile yesterday. We’ll give him the edge on top while also including Flashy Fritz, who has been questionable leaving the gate in the morning and had the misfortune of drawing the rail. But he has ability and could be a factor if he breaks with his field.

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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8-Word Play (GB)
Backups: 3-Ms Brightside.

Forecast: Word Play (GB) is a first-off-the-claim for J. Mullins and that’s an automatic play in our book. A good recent second over this course and distance for $50,000 last time out, the English-bred filly is protected today in a starter’s allowance affair, seems likely to produce a significant forward move, and looks capable of producing a winning late kick. U. Rispoli stays aboard and knows her well.

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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Discrepancy
Backups: none.

Forecast: Discrepancy is a three time winner over the local main track and returns to her claim level after earning a decent number when second in a tougher starter allowance affair last time out. She lacks tactical speed and probably will need a bit of help up front today to be most effective, but on her best day she can wear down this group close home. Her morning line of 3-1 seems about right.

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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Broski (Ire); 2-Mutaz.
Backups: 5-Catch the Breeze.

Forecast: Broski (Ire) , in the frame in six of seven career starts with solid numbers for the level, is overdue for a maiden win and seems well spotted to graduate. He’s likely to draft into a comfortable stalking position and have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole to the wire. Mutaz almost certainly is the one he has to beat. Fifth in his debut after pulling hard early, the son of Nyquist shows the always dangerous blinkers off angle for B. Baffert (25% with second timers), and it would be surprising if this well regarded colt doesn’t step forward significantly.

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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Ryan’s Girl; 3-Miss Miche Lada.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Ryan’s Girl takes a substantial class drop seeking her winning level and appears to have found it in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer for sophomore fillies. She’s a fit on numbers, switches to K. Kimura, and projects to be forwardly placed and have every chance against this modest group. She’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line and will offer good value if you can get it. Miss Miche Lada is worth using, as well. First off an $8,000 claim following a 12 length romp, the daughter of Stay Thirsty is raised three levels in class in a sign of confidence and based on numbers she’s a fit at this level for her new, high percentage connections.

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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Severe Clear
Backups: 2-Ride Elbow Ranch; 4-Darlin Tami.

Forecast: Severe Clear is a first timer with ability and should be extremely live in this maiden special weight turf sprint for older state-bred fillies and mares. The daughter of Vronsky is an efficient move with plenty of speed, and her pedigree suggests she should be at her best on grass. The barn has powerful stats with newcomers so at 8-1 on the morning line this sophomore filly offers an excellent gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 08:09 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 25, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a 15-race card to begin the week. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

5-Makin Some Noise (5-1)-The last trip was tough, worked hard in the opening quarter and couldn't advance down the lane. Comes back in sequence, has the tactical speed to get a jump on this field and the price is right to take a swing.
7-Liteningonthebeach (5/2)-Comes off a gate to wire score at Mea and Aaron Merriman has options from this post. Could leave hard and land no worse than in the pocket. If not, could catch the leader down the lane, and need to use either way.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

1-Dojea Rock (2-1)-The conditioner Mark Headworth steered in last and now Merriman gets the nod. Not liking the short price, but does draw the rail. This 9-year-old is not 0-13 by coincidence, but may not be pressured and could steal a quarter or two. Will use and hope for others with value.
3-Hilltop Image (5/2)-Recent form has been dull, but ships back from MVR and lands in a spot to wake up. Will respect chances from the inside and drew off by over 4 lengths the last time versus this kind.
9-Battle Strong (9-1)-Merriman should leave from the rail and Kurt Sugg should be following close behind. Needs some luck and a sharp steer but should offer a nice return. Can provide some value and might get a suck-around trip.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

1-Beachchip Hanover (3-1)-Gets needed post relief and did win at this level on 3-2. Merriman is between the pipes and that will likely make for a smaller price.
3-Cool Man Dude (5/2)-Lost last time at the line, after trying to go gate to wire. Worked to get the top and really didn't get a breather. All in all a big effort, and if races back to similar, should be tough to tackle.

Race 14

2-Greatest Ending (2-1)-Could be the best against this bunch and draws well because a lack of gate speed is an issue. Needs a good trip to take a picture and AMac can work a smooth journey.
7-Dragthechipsmyway (7/2)-The Burke barn has been clicking and this veteran was hung the mile, so had an excuse last time. Chris Page is at the controls, could be a player and the trip has to be better.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

5,7/1,3,9/1,3/2,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 08:10 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #3

#6 Seismic Beauty	Always a little skeptical when a horse rolls after controlling the tempo, but that was a really sharp route debut last time out, and she draws well to dictate the tempo from out here. Maybe on the rise.
#4 Splendora	Tactical pace has a class edge on the top choice, and there's not much wrong with having Kopion in her recent company lines -- that's the best one-turn filly in the country. The one to beat.
#3 Where's My Ring	Her better stuff stacks up nicely with this crew, and she's not meeting anyone quite like Thorpedo Anna today. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Race Summary	Fun race with a couple of them bringing in big names in their company lines like Thorpedo Anna and Kopion, but I'm wondering if Seismic Beauty can pull the mildest of upsets.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#5 Catch the Breeze	He seems like he needs a perfectly timed moved -- he has made a couple of decent moves into the pace in recent races before going just a bit flat late. Can catch the wire first here.
#3 Unrivaled Hero	Tough to split the top two, as this one has been knocking on the door and just missed when stepping back into special weight company last time out. In the mix again.
#2 Mutaz	He has some upside in this second start while shedding blinkers -- that might lead him to a pretty nice tracking spot today.
Race Summary	Another fun race -- don't even have ML favorite #7 Broski listed here, but he's another obvious player here. Catch the Breeze seems like a good fit and just needs to get his bit of punch timed perfectly to hit the wire.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#11 All in the Game	Could be a bit of a reach, but take a look at her ahead of this one on the tote and track. I'm not totally in love with most of them in here, so why not?
#12 Sei Bella	She has just been a touch flat late in all three starts, so that's a bit of a worry for me again here while racing from a high draw. Better stuff keeps her in play obviously.
#4 Darlin Tami	She has faced a couple of tough customers along the way, but she also has made a habit of going flat in the final yards. Something like the two-back start makes her a player again.
Race Summary	All in the Game could be an interesting fresh face in here, and she has a pedigree that makes her at least a little fun in this kind of spot on paper.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 09:07 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso Downs
PURCHASE

Ruidoso Downs - Race 2	2nd Half Early Daily Double/ Exacta/ Trifecta/ .10 Superfecta 1st Leg .50 Pick 4
Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 88 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 1:26P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2025 RUIDOSO QUARTER HORSE DERBY. WEIGHT: 126 LBS. ALL HORSES MUST ENTER FOR THE TRIALS ON SUNDAY MAY 18, 2025 BY 11:00 A.M. LATE NOMINATIONS OF $30,000 (INCLUDES ALL FEES) WILL BE ACCEPTED AT THE TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS. THE TEN FASTEST QUALIFIERS WILL ADVANCE TO THE FINALS. THERE WILL BE NO ALSO ELIGIBLE LIST FOR THE FINALS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SPEED FAVORITE: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KJ BAD MOON RISING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	SPEED FAVORITE	5/1	7/2
4	KJ BAD MOON RISING	8/5	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	A GOLD STAR HERO	1	10/1	Average/Trouble-prone	74	70	5.6	0.0	0.0
2	SIN TACHAS CANDY	2	10/1	Slow	67	65	6.4	0.0	0.0
3	CANDYS CAUSE	3	8/1	Average	86	83	5.6	0.0	0.0
4	KJ BAD MOON RISING	4	8/5	Fast	100	94	3.4	0.0	0.0
5	CHECKERED FLAG	5	4/1	Fast	85	83	2.8	0.0	0.0
6	FDD JESS SPEED	6	7/2	Fast	82	82	2.6	0.0	0.0
7	SPEED FAVORITE	7	5/1	Average	100	96	4.9	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 09:07 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunray Park
PURCHASE

Sunray Park - Race 11	Second Half Late Daily Double / $1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta 10 Cent Superfecta / Last Leg Pick 4 / Last Leg Pick 3
Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 5:25P
SAN JUAN COUNTY COMMISSIONERS S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER, BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $200 TO NOMINATE; $400 TO ENTER. (HIGH MONEY EARNED 2024-2025). NOMINATIONS CLOSE FRIDAY MAY 16, 2025 AT 2:00 P.M. THREE YEAR OLDS 120 LBS. OLDER 123 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * RUGGS: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating. MINE THAT STAR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BENDER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top t hree in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CORRINA CORRINA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	RUGGS	9/2	9/2
10	MINE THAT STAR	7/2	9/2
9	BENDER	8/1	7/1
2	CORRINA CORRINA	3/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	RUGGS	6	9/2	Front-runner	108	101	95.0	95.0	89.0
8	WARRIORS MARK	8	6/1	Front-runner	93	83	77.8	88.4	78.4
4	HAM SANDWICH	4	15/1	Stalker	89	85	87.2	69.2	52.7
5	PROJECTION	5	12/1	Stalker	88	86	85.8	81.6	69.6
10	MINE THAT STAR	10	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	107	92	84.2	97.8	95.3
1	MISS LUCKY LADY	1	10/1	Trailer	85	74	83.3	74.4	56.4
9	BENDER	9	8/1	Trailer	107	103	73.3	88.6	81.1
2	CORRINA CORRINA	2	3/1	Trailer	100	96	69.8	96.0	91.0
7	PINEY BLUFF	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	74	90.4	61.4	43.4
3	LET THERE BE PEACE	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	90	71.8	79.4	66.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 09:07 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Handicap - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 98

GP - R7 - FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. PURSE $70,000 FREE NOMINATION BY FRIDAY, MAY 16. WEIGHTS: SATURDAY, MAY 17. NO FEE TO ENTER. STARTERS TO BE NAMED BY USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS WILL BE WEIGHTED AT TIME OF ENTRY. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HIGHWEIGHTS. EQUAL

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MRS. GAMBOLINI 4/5
# 1 TIFFANY GOLD 8/1
# 4 GREAT VENEZUELA 9/5

MRS. GAMBOLINI looks strong to best this field. This filly has posted some nice finishing positions in her last few tries. Has garnered formidable Equibase Speed Figures in turf sprint races in the past. She ought to be given a shot given the decent speed figs. TIFFANY GOLD - Could beat this group given the 92 speed figure earned in her last outing. With one of the most competitive jockeys in terms of dividends at the window, don't count this filly out. GREAT VENEZUELA - There is a very good chance that this entry's late pace will improve with second time Lasix. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 09:08 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SO - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, IT WILL BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 MISTER MULDOON 3/1
# 1 PHILO BEDDOE 2/1
# 6 LUCKY SMILE 5/1

I've got to go with MISTER MULDOON. In against a much easier bunch than last time out. Difficult to pass on this gelding with Hernandez in the saddle. Gamblers ought to feel comfortable with this selection given Hernandez's recent gains at the window. PHILO BEDDOE - Will most likely go to the lead and should never look back. Ran a sharp last race. LUCKY SMILE - Looks very strong for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figs in turf sprint races lately. Has competed admirably in turf sprint races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 09:08 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race #6 - Post: 4:23pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 BANGO'S HEAT (ML=8/1)
#9 SMOKEMONTHECLIFF (ML=8/1)
#11 BOB'S VAI (ML=9/2)
#2 INFINITE LOVE (ML=15/1)

BANGO'S HEAT - SMOKEMONTHECLIFF - That last work tells me this mare is set for a top effort. Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this mare as she always seems to run well after a layoff. This horse could be a potential overlay today at morning line odds of 8/1. Finished fourth in last race at Emerald Downs but was close at the finish. BOB'S VAI - I think the shorter trip will help this mare stay the trip. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your bankroll onto this jockey/conditioner combination. INFINITE LOVE - I surely see good things for this steed right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 ADA THORNE (ML=4/1), #5 LULA BELLA (ML=6/1), #4 SMILINGATTHEMOON (ML=6/1),

ADA THORNE - It appears like too much early zip is signed up in this race. This speed merchant will most likely get baked on the front end. LULA BELLA - Looked like she was in good form on Apr 28th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. SMILINGATTHEMOON - It appears like too much early speed is entered in this clash. This speedy one will most likely get cooked on the top end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 BANGO'S HEAT to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-25-2025, 09:08 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 4:47pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#5 VALIANTLY DISCREET (ML=5/1)
#1 NAGY AND DA BEARS (ML=9/2)

VALIANTLY DISCREET - The return on investment when Bendezu and Quinonez partner up is out of sight. Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be advantageous. This magnificent animal is racing on the turf for the first time. He should be tough, coming off a third place finish in his race on Sep 3rd on a sluggish track. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the ability to make his presence felt. NAGY AND DA BEARS - I definitely see favorable signs for this noble animal right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MAN ON ATTACK (ML=7/5), #3 A P BLAZING GREEN (ML=6/1),

MAN ON ATTACK - March 9th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. Difficult to put any cash on this gelding on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. A P BLAZING GREEN - Tough to play at 6/1 odds after the most recent outings.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - VALIANTLY DISCREET - Love the latest bullet work. Should perform well today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 VALIANTLY DISCREET is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass