Wednesday 5/28/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:15 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | May 28, 2025

May 27, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

It’s hard to come back down to Earth after watching Voyage Bubble make history sweeping the Hong Kong Triple Crown, making him just the second Crown champion all-time in the series. However, as a wise man once said, money still spends the same whether it was won on the Kentucky Derby or Race 5 at Finger Lakes (no shade to Finger Lakes). Our money will still spend the same whether it comes off the back of a historic champion or a mid-card Class 5 at Happy Valley.

Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +58%

Highlights: Voyage Bubble becomes just the second ever Hong Kong Triple Crown Champion (Watch the replay here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKq24LxLpFw)

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – May 28
Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.

Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – 3
Quinella Box – 3,6,8

Notes: 3 – WINNING HEART (6/1 ML) has been trending in the right direction and gets back to a turf course expected to be graded “Good” early Wednesday morning. He didn’t run quite as well on a Firm course, but put up figures of 92, 86 and 84 on softer grass which would put him firmly atop this field. I like his chances outright, and we’ll play against the ML favorite, 5 – EVER SMART, who seems to run in a OXOX pattern (O being a good race, X being a down race) and is coming off one of his better performances last time out. Expect a dip, and play against with some big prices.

Race 2 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – 5
Exacta Box – 5,6

Notes: 5 – NOTTHESILLYONE (33/1 ML) is a horse on the rise who looks like he could use the extra furlong. This non-winner in 8 total starts has never run six furlongs, but has been closing well and could be set up for a big run with a favorable pace setup. I don’t have much love for morning line favorite 12 – MULTIDARLING (2/1 ML), but do see a positive pattern in 6 – RAGNARR (5/1 ML) and will keep him in the mix with our longshot.

Race 3 | 2200M | Class 4
Win - 5
Exacta Box – 5,8

Notes: 5 – ROMANTIC FANTASY (11/1 ML) had a disaster of a race three tries back but has been back to this 11-furlong distance and is putting up some very good figures. At his morning line price, I like his chances as much as some others and there could be a solid number on the tote board. 8 – PERFECT PAIRING (5/1 ML) looks like another strong contender who has preferred a less-than-firm lawn, and he should get something like that tomorrow morning.

Race 5 | 1650M | Class 4
Exacta – 1 w/ 2

Notes: 1 – PRESTIGE GOOD (2/1 ML) looks like a clear standout in this field after dropping back to Class 4, but we have another runner in great form dropping in class with a 33/1 ML price. It might be worth a half-unit bet on 2 – COMET SPLENDIDO to win at those odds, but I’m looking at the Exacta to make a short price pay big bucks.

Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - 4

Notes: 4 – MY DAY MY WAY (13/1 ML) is a lightly raced gelding, making just his sixth start but doing so in improving form. His speed figures are among the highest in the field outside of 1 – CALIFORNIA DEEPLY (2/1 ML) who spiked a 94 in his last run. I’m going to treat that big figure as more of a fluke when compared to his three previous runs which all rated in the low 70’s. I like our top pick’s form, figures, and financial potential.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – 4
Exacta Key Box – 4 w/ 1,2,10

Notes: 4 – GOLDEN EMPIRE (26/1 ML) has shown he can compete and win in the Class 3 division, and the 7-year-old gelding is showing a very promising pattern. He doesn’t quite have the ceiling of some others in this field, but his floor has been much higher than those same runners. I think his consistency gives him a good chance if some of the more shortly priced runners find themselves having an off day. At 26/1 on the morning line, I will try my best to capitalize on the opportunity and key him up top with the best of the field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:16 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#1 Por Voce	There are a couple of them with some forward ability drawn outside of him, and his grinding kind of style might play well from the fence. Plugs along the whole way? In the mix if he likes the footing.
#3 Starship Liberty	Forward player has already put a couple of good feet forward on synthetic in Florence, and I like that she sustained her move much better in her second career start. Some appeal as a win threat, but not for me if the price starts to shorten.
#2 La Scatta	She's another who improved in her second lifetime start, and she has enough sprint pace to join the wideout on the front end early while trying two turns.
Race Summary	Por Voce hasn't been exciting so far, but she has shown some interest in getting past horses late and would benefit if the stretchout pace outside of her took a crack at the front end.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Runaway Harry	There are definitely horses in better form right now, so we may still get at least a midrange kind of number despite the fact that this guy has won a ton of races locally. He'll have a little company, but he's tough here with his best if he can find the trip.
#4 Royal Luck	Honest guy has been knocking on the door lately, so he's a reliable player in the gimmicks, but I'd want a fair price to see if today is the day he gets over the top while trying the local footing for the first time -- and meeting a handful of experienced horses who absolutely love it here. I don't know...
#8 Dowagiac Chief	He's definitely not more likely to find the board than a couple others here I haven't even listed who love it here -- #1 Grounded, #2 Declared, and #5 Extrasexybigdaddee -- but the price should be much better on this guy who owns some solid shares with similar.
Race Summary	Runaway Harry may not offer the 10/1 ML price, but he could still be an OK number on the board in a fun race with horses who bring dozens of combined local wins with them. Enjoy this one.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#4 Bromista	His form was going in the right direction before that slight fading run here near the end of last season, but he can bounce back fresh after some time off. Better stuff would do.
#2 Noble Soul	He flashed a bit of tracking pace in that last one, and he'll get some additional class relief by cutting the tag again for his local debut. Forward player could hang around here.
#5 D'Oro Lemon	He has been able to get past a few horses in some of those races, and that could play well enough here to bring him along for a piece. I like him a little, but I think he's probably on top only on the reach tickets.
Race Summary	I'm happy to pick up Bromista at something shorter than the 10/1 ML offering, as his more reliable spying form should set him up for a perfect trip today against a suspect crew.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:16 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #3

#6 OTTER CREEK (6-1)	Credible effort in stakes company, runs for a tag as first-time gelding.
#5 GRIM REAPER (2-1)	Best of the recent maiden $25,000 winners, rounding to another good effort.
#4 BEN’S HERO (3-1)	Third behind stablemate who romped on the front end here last Thursday.
Race Summary	OTTER CREEK arrives from Louisiana and races as a gelding for the first time. If he’s right, he’s a good value play in an evenly-matched field. He was much the best in a 5F MSW score at Delta Downs, then he bid into a fast pace but couldn’t sustain in the Lafayette Stakes at Evangeline Downs. The Lafayette winner, Cool Cowboy, came back to finish second in a stakes at Oaklawn Park. Bet to win and place and play 6-4, 6-5 and 5-6 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#10 FIRE AT MIDNIGHT (12-1)	Landed minor awards against short-priced winners on dirt, can turf.
#1 QUILL PEN (6-1)	Broke maiden on ‘good’ turf here in the fall, good works for return.
#5 DELAYED (9-2)	Class-dropped to this level for a popular maiden-breaking victory.
Race Summary	FIRE AT MIDNIGHT took far back off the pace, came under a ride on the final turn and got up 4-wide to finish third on the main track behind the 1-to-5 winner. She has a maiden win and a couple in-the-money follow-up runs on the Delaware Park lawn to summon, so the price is right for a win and place bet and a 1-5-10 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #6

#3 BALTASAR (3-2)	Steady and versatile sprint form, but five-time beaten fave in last eight starts.
#1 MAJESTIC TIGER (6-1)	Ran second behind repeat winner in five-horse field at Penn National.
#5 REMEMBERING WILBUR (2-1) &n	Second in both 2025 starts, edged troubled fave for place spot in latest.
Race Summary	BALTASAR rallied from 8 lengths back to within a neck of a win that would have pushed him over the $200,000 earnings mark. He showed good speed on his previous stay at Delaware in the fall but has adapted well to off-the-pace tactics that should suit him well in this spot. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:17 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 3	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $30,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 51 • Purse: $19,500 • Post: 1:35P
FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 28, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $20,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MR. REDLEGS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MR. REDLEGS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface. SISSY'S MAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	MR. REDLEGS	2/1	3/2
5	SISSY'S MAY	4/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	BUCKEYE MIKE	2	5/1	Front-runner	37	31	59.6	28.4	19.4
4	R C IRONSIDE	4	7/2	Front-runner	39	36	38.6	30.2	23.2
3	MR. REDLEGS	3	2/1	Stalker	57	52	76.8	48.3	44.8
5	SISSY'S MAY	5	4/1	Trailer	54	45	16.8	45.8	40.3
1	GUESS AGAIN	1	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	38	28.0	41.4	36.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:17 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs
PURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 1	Win/Place/Show/Daily Double/Exactor/Triactor/Superfecta/Pick 3 (1-2-3)
Allowance • 770 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 1:45P
QUARTER HORSE 770Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD AN OPEN RACE FOR QUARTER HORSES AND THOROUGHBREDS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS A DEAL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post pos ition next to it gets out of the gate fast. AZURES ROYALTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ICE CREAM CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	JESS A DEAL	2/1	5/2
3	AZURES ROYALTY	5/2	4/1
1	ICE CREAM CARTEL	9/2	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ICE CREAM CARTEL	1	9/2	Average	74	72	5.3	0.0	0.0
3	AZURES ROYALTY	3	5/2	Slow	77	74	6.4	0.0	0.0
4	JESS A DEAL	4	2/1	Fast	78	76	3.4	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: DETERMINED LOVE (T) (8/5) [Jockey: Mosqueira Ismael E - Trainer: Mathes Julie], CHERRY GARDENS (T) (3/1) [Jockey: Phillips Tony - Trainer: Mathes Julie].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:17 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:31pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#11 NICKY JOLENE (ML=12/1)
#2 BLONDE SAMARITAN (ML=30/1)

NICKY JOLENE - In this race here, this beautiful animal has recorded the highest speed rating at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. This horse has the pace, and no one may be able to keep up with her. The most recent fig of 80 is the top last race speed figure in the group. I like that last contest on April 27th at Tampa Bay Downs where she finished second. BLONDE SAMARITAN - Ramirez drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this horse should have a chance to win at this level. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This fine animal has the highest average class in the entire group. Ramirez has this mount racing well coming into today. Three strong speed figures in most recent events make me say this horse should do very well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DIVINING SMILE (ML=3/1), #5 DELAYED (ML=9/2), #8 HEAVEN'S PROMISE (ML=5/1),

DIVINING SMILE - This entrant hasn't been on the track since April 18th. Not even any morning drills. DELAYED - Looked like she was in good form on May 2nd. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. HEAVEN'S PROMISE - This horse showed little last time out of the box finishing sixth. Don't expect any betterment in today's race. The speed fig last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this racer as a possibly overvalued equine.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #11 NICKY JOLENE to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $23800 Class Rating: 84

IND - R8 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BATTLE OF BRITAIN 7/2
# 8 GUCCI MAN 10/1
# 12 GAGLIARDI 8/1

BATTLE OF BRITAIN supports the wager in here. He has earned very strong figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this group. Murphy has him trained solidly to break quickly out of the starting gate. Could beat this group given the 80 speed rating recorded in his last outing. GUCCI MAN - This equine has to be wagered on at the expected high odds. GAGLIARDI - Ought to go to the front end and could never look back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:18 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19900 Class Rating: 60

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BEAUTIFUL CHARADE 8/5
# 5 SALTMAKESHERSWEET 9/5
# 4 DANCE DRAMA 6/1

BEAUTIFUL CHARADE looks to be a solid contender. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this animal look solid in this race. Garnered a very good speed figure last time out. I can't pass on this filly given one of the strongest jock and trainer combos on the grounds. SALTMAKESHERSWEET - She looks respectable in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Should be considered a solid choice on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2025, 07:18 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5 - Post: 5:18pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#3 ONE LAST BID (ML=5/2)

ONE LAST BID - This horse's last race was at Laurel in a race with a class rating of 93. Dropping drastically in class figure this time puts him in a solid position right here in this race. Earnings per race entered is something that I think can be a most important factor. This horse is ranked number one in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ITZCOATL (ML=3/1), #7 BOUNTEOUS (ML=4/1), #6 PARTNER TOURS (ML=9/2),

ITZCOATL - This colt won last time, but probably won't repeat today versus tougher competition. BOUNTEOUS - Didn't finish in the money on Mar 30th at Tampa Bay Downs. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. Finished eighth in his most recent performance with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. PARTNER TOURS - This equine hasn't been close in either of his last couple of efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 ONE LAST BID is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Wednesday 5/28/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 5/28/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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