Saturday 5/31/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2025, 07:36 AM

Scott Shapiro: Churchill Pick 4 Hit & Split Analysis | Sat. 5

May 29, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

Saturday is Stephen Foster Preview Day at Churchill Downs, which means six stake races to close out a competitive 11-race card. As always in Louisville, there is a Pick 4 offered over the last four races and in this case, it happens to be of the all-graded stakes variety.

The sequence kicks off in Race 8 and those who hit it at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET will split 3 million 1/ST Rewards Points. You know how Hit & Splits work by now I assume, but if not head to the promotional landing page for details. Be sure to remember to register!

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8: Shawnee (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Corningstone; 7 Gin Gin; 3 Royal Spa
Backups: 1 Where’s My Ring; 8 In Just My Heels

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this 1 1/16-mile event for fillies and mares. #1 Where’s My Ring was made the 5-2-ML choice by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The Twirling Candy filly has a few races that beat these, but trainer Peter Miller is 0 for 5 at Churchill Downs over the last two years and just 8 for 95 in the last 90 days. She perhaps is the one to beat, but more tough to trust. The same is true of #7 Gin Gin. She won convincingly in the Doubledogdare (G3) in her first start for Brendan Walsh, but was 38-1 and beat a lot of no shows that afternoon at Keeneland. I like her chances more than Where’s My Ring, but also give a few longshots a chance to spring the upset.

#2 Corningstone was cost all chance at the start last out in the Bayakoa (G3) and has run first or second in all 4 starts over the Churchill Downs main track. She is not the likeliest winner, but might be the best value. #3 Royal Spa is probably stretching things taking on this level of competition at 8.5-furlongs, but she also has run well over this surface and attracts Flavien Prat. I am not sure she goes off the same price as Corningstone, but she is likely to still offer solid separation from the public in the first leg.

Race 9: Arlington (G3)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9 Brilliant Berti
Backups: None

Forecast: I am all about #9 Brilliant Berti in this 1 1/16-mile test over the Churchill lawn. The Klein Racing colt has done little wrong in his career winning 6 of 9 to date, including a perfect 4 for 4-record over this course. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode him like the best horse in the Opening Verse on May 1 and he won by a measured half-length in the end. The Noble Mission colt meets a solid group in this year’s Arlington (G3), but appears poised for a career best effort third off the layoff for trainer Cherie DeVaux.

Race 10: Blame (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Banishing; 7 Most Wanted
Backups: 3 Antiquarian

Forecast: For a $275k Grade 3, the Blame came up extremely strong. Hopefully this sets things up for one of the better Stephen Foster’s in recent years on closing weekend. #9 Post Time was made the lukewarm 3-1-favorite after a romp off the layoff against lesser at Laurel earlier this month. The Maryland-bred is as honest as they come, but I still prefer him at one-turn against this level of competition.

#7 Most Wanted and #8 Banishing will also take plenty of public action. I prefer them to Post Time and had a hard time separating the two. Most Wanted has not won since the Oklahoma Derby (G3) last September, but his three consecutive runner-up efforts would all put him squarely in the mix in here. He will likely have to earn on the front end though after a big run against Fierceness in the Alysheba (G2). Banishing is far more battle tested to say the least. He continues to run massive races at different distances against top tier horses for trainer David Jacobson. The 9-furlongs is probably stretching him, but I am tired of doubting this son of Ghostzapper who comes in off real rest after racing 3 times from March 29 to May 3.

#3 Antiquarian is probably a reach on top, but also will be a huge price. I prefer the idea of keying him underneath in the exotics, but he is getting better and wants all the ground he can get. I am expecting a strong run from the Preservationist colt at his 15-1 ML odds.

Race 11: Regret (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Classic Q
Backups: 2 Hereforagoodtime

Forecast: #5 Classic Q looks like the right horse in the finale. The Classic Empire filly worked out a good trip, but won for total fun over this course on April 30. She did have Lasix that afternoon and will race without it on Saturday, but I am not overly concerned. Her effort two-back at Gulfstream Park did not earn her the same figure, but she had a terrible trip in the Sanibel Island and still lost by less than two lengths. Trainer Mark Casse has been dominant with 3YO fillies going long on the turf thus far in 2025 and should earn another victory here with Jose Ortiz back aboard.

If Classic Q regresses on the class hike, #2 Hereforagoodtime appears capable of springing the upset. She too has to answer the Lasix question, but ran well in her first try over this course on May 8. She gets Jose’s brother aboard for the first time and a favorable inside draw.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2025, 07:37 AM

Race of the Week: Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs | Saturday

May 28, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
While the Blame Stakes serves as Churchill Downs' prep to next month's Grade 1 Stephen Foster, the main event will be hard-pressed to top the tune-up. All 10 entrants are graded stakes winners, and the added juice of a Kentucky Derby winner in the lineup adds extra wattage to the marquee. The Blame will be Race 10 on an 11-race Stephen Foster Preview Day matinee that includes 6 stakes races.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner MYSTIK DAN's 2024 Kentucky Derby trophy stands on its own, but the field includes Grade 2 winners KATONAH and POST TIME, the latter also Grade 1-placed. Grade 3 winners include ALEXANDER HELIOS, ANTIQUARIAN, BEST ACTOR, HALL OF FAME, MOST WANTED, TENNESSEE LAMB and BANSHING, the last of which Grade 1-placed as well. KATONAH and POST TIME arguably have an overall strength of schedule edge.

Pace:
At 1-1/8 miles, you expect a modest tempo, but this field has plenty of quality expected near the top. MOST WANTED and BANISHING could carve things out, but ALEXANDER HELIOS, ANTIQUARIAN, BEST ACTOR and HALL OF FAME won't let anyone get away crawling. A solid finisher should have every chance if he fires his shot.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-KATONAH: After winning the San Pasqual at Santa Anita in January, nothing has gone right in 3 subsequent starts in the Big 'Cap, Dubai World Cup and Alysheba locally. This would be a drop in class, but note Doug O'Neill cross-entered this 6-year-old in Sunday's Race 7 allowance and could wind up there -- not exactly a confident stakes move.

#2-ALEXANDER HELIOS: Oaklawn's Razorback winner in February should be inside pace here under Irad Ortiz Jr. and returns to track in which he's run well (maiden win 2023, allowance runner-up to stakes-class Hit Show in 2024 from 2 Churchill appearances). Like most, he's better vs. softer paces. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and Ortiz teamed to win Santa Anita's Grade 1 Gamely and Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup on Memorial Day Monday.

#3-ANTIQUARIAN: Last year's Peter Pan winner and Belmont Stakes fifth-place finisher has been seen just once since and pulled away late to win an April 19 Gulfstream allowance over 7 furlongs. Gets a major class test Saturday when meeting elder stakes horses for the first time. One-paced sort should get an excellent trip for the always-dangerous John Velazquez-Todd Pletcher duo.

#4-MYSTIK DAN: 0-for-5 since draped in the roses nearly 13 months ago, but his Oaklawn effort May 3 was easily his best since the '24 Preakness. That second by a nose to legit speedster Saudi Crown would play very well in this race. He's drawn well, and expect Brian Hernandez Jr. to glue him to the pine and try to attack from midflight into the far turn. Fast work on the clock over the weekend indicates he may be holding that recent form. Value question with his reputation as a Derby winner, but a contender.

#5-BEST ACTOR: Cross-entered in Sunday allowance at Churchill along with stablemate Most Wanted and it's this colt who seems more likely to scratch Saturday. He's dropped 5 straight, which doesn't sound bad, but he hasn't won since November 2023. Tough to recommend if he stays in the lineup.

#6-HALL OF FAME: He's come back from an 8-month layoff to put together 5 straight strong efforts in his current form cycle and develop consistency at high levels. Plenty of pedigree for the 1-1/8 miles trip, but he has flattened out late in his last 2 and it's notable his record without Lasix (0-4) vs. with Lasix (4-5 with a second). Jose Ortiz returns to the saddle and has paired well with him previously.

#7-MOST WANTED: Cross-entered in Sunday CD allowance, but anticipate he'll run in this spot after a strong front-end second to Fierceness in the Alysheba on Oaks Day. Pace player won his first 4 and has runs second in 3 races since, never misfiring. Nine furlongs does extend him beyond his damside pedigree somewhat, but he won the Oklahoma Derby at that trip and nearly wired the Clark locally. Intensity of the pace challenges will be his hurdle.

#8-BANISHING: Warrior of a racehorse has fired 9 straight razor-sharp efforts in a row. Speedster showed how good he is right now after being nearly eliminated at the start of the Churchill Downs Handicap and furiously rallying to lose a melee photo in one of the outstanding races of 2025. Could await the Met Mile on the Belmont Stakes undercard, run here or even possibly both. No matter what race he runs in, discount him at great risk. Player, though 9 furlongs and pace pressure stretch his fabulous form.

#9-POST TIME: Wonderfully consistent, Laurel-based colt has blossomed into one of Maryland's best runners in decades. He's 10-for-16 lifetime and will be making his first start at Churchill Downs (he was a sharp, rallying third at Keeneland in the 2023 Perryville in his only venture to Kentucky). Got the old school allowance prep and blowout win at Laurel off a 5-month break last time and should be set up for the husband-wife team of Sheldon and Brittany Russell. Most of his damage has been done around 1-turn vs. 2, but his Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile rally was encouraging around multiple bends.

#10-TENNESSEE LAMB: Keeneland's Ben Ali winner has tallied victories in 3 of his last 4 after starting his career 0-8. Rusty Arnold trainee could be victimized by a wide trip with his pressing style and so much speed to his inside and far outside draw. Legitimate challenges to overcome and may need to make another big leap forward to contend.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
POST TIME gets a great pace set-up and has posted triple-digit BRIS late pace figures in 8 of his last 10 starts. He'll be rolling late.

Best Longshot Contender:
No big bombs projected, but ALEXANDER HELIOS is 6-1 morning line and capable of sprucing up the payouts.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win POST TIME.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:35 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/31/25

May 31, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, May 31 2024
Santa Anita Park

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Yacowlef; 1-Hurricane Cloud (GB)
Backups: none.

Forecast: Yacowlef (Ire) seeks his fourth straight win and based on his recent speed figures it doesn’t look like he will lose anytime soon. The Irish-bred gelding scored over this course and distance two runs back and is equally effective sprinting or routing,. Hurricane Cloud (GB) was a close third behind our top pick two races back and looms the one to fear most. He’s guaranteed a ground saving trip from the rail and should fire another good shot, though based on numbers he has some ground to make up.

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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Naftis; 5-Whiskeyinateacup
Backups: 2-Uplift.

Forecast: Naftis plummets in class seeking his proper level and in this $5,000 claiming league he may have found it. He’s the favorite by default and won’t offer any real value at 6/5 on the morning line, but if it’s not him, then who? Whiskeyinateacup shows the blinkers off angle so maybe he’ll improve.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 3-Ole Silver; 1-Tiergarten
Backups: none.

Forecast: It’s anybody’s guess what condition Ole Silver is in. The veteran mare, once a legitimate allowance performer, finished far back in her recent comeback and today is being tossed in the scrap heap for $8,000. Maybe her past class will carry her through, though at 9/5 on the morning line it may not be worth finding out. Tiergarten is a fit at this level but she’s a one-paced grinder and not really one to trust. Tread lightly.

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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Jimmy Blue Jeans; 2-Flyover.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Jimmy Bue Jeans takes another class drop – he’s being thrown away for $20,000 – so you have to be concerned about his current condition. But based on his recent numbers he remains more than fast enough to win at this allowance optional claiming level and when the purse is $61,000 this placement makes sense on a monetary level. Flyover won at first asking in clever fashion, but his number was average and today he tackles much more seasoned foes while stretching out after just one sprint. He could be a decent sort, but he’d better be.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 7-Power Play; 3-Toppers At Seaside.
Backups: none.

Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this maiden $20,000 main track miler, so you probably should include as many as your budget allows. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Power Play shows up for a tag for the first time while adding blinkers, so there are at least a couple of reasons to expect improvement. Though unplaced in each of his four starts to date, the son of Authentic has numbers that are good enough to beat this field. Toppers At Seaside may be the controlling speed and if gifted that trip could take this field a long way.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8-Big Mama Sue; 7-Vincero Grande
Backups: 2-Ultimate Hy.

Forecast: Big Mama Sue is a four time winner over the local lawn and with any kind of help up front should be able to produce another winning late kick. Vincero Grande, on the other hand, is winless in eight starts locally but she’s been facing better company and has earned speed figures that make her a solid fit at this level. Best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: A
Main Ticket: 2-Nysos
Backups: none.

Forecast: Nysos ran too good to lose (and was probably best) when a dead-heat second in the Churchill Downs S.-G1 on Derby Day and has breezed in superior fashion over the local main track since returning to his home base. We’re expecting an even better performance in this softer spot by the brilliantly talented son of Nyquist. He’s 3/5 on the morning line and it wouldn’t be hyperbole to say he’d be an overlay at that price.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Frog; 4-Infinity Dream.
Backups: 2-Cloudy Women.

Forecast: Frog is improving with every start according to her speed figures and may be ready to graduate in this maiden $50,000 turf sprint for fillies and mares. She projects to be a strong pace factor from start to finish. Infinity Dream finished a nose ahead of our top pick when second last time out after stepping forward off a useful debut effort and is another with every right to continue her improving pattern. These two are hard to separate and both should be included on the top line.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Grazen Sun
Backups: 6-Major Tom.

Forecast: Grazen Sun hits hard at this starter’s allowance level and has always had a winning spirit, except at Santa Anita, where he is zero-for-seven in his career. Everywhere else, he’s seven-for-26. Second vs. similar last time out, the veteran gelding catches a field without much speed and in fact looks very much like the quickest in the field. If he can clear early without undue pressure, he should never look back.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Quick Brown Fox; 4-Lovely Idaho.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Quick Brown Fox is back sprinting while returning to turf. On the flat grass course the daughter of Justify broke her maiden in fine style two races back. She has the proper stalking tyle for the Hill and should be able to produce a major effort. Lovely Idaho just won a state-bred first level allowance sprint over this downhill turf course and today tackles tougher open company. On numbers, she should be competitive right back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:35 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 31, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Hoosier Park has a 14-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (10:10 PM EDT)

3-Bombay Parkway (5-1)-Beat better than this and the following 2 starts were flat. Did get away slowly in both efforts and was far back early. Drops and this looks like a good spot to wake up.
5-Adashious Hanover (9/5)-Finished a good 2nd in last leaving from post 9 while facing this kind. Has connected for a win at this level this year at HoP. This is a logical play, not a lock, and will likely be bet hard.

Race 12 (10:33 PM EDT)

2-Bridge To Victory (3-1)-Missed all of 2024 and has not fired hot this year taking only 1 picture in 9 races. Drops to a very soft spot and should be in the hunt at the wire with an inside post draw .
7-Latin Lover (7-1)-Drops after facing better in the last 2 starts and has hit the board in the last 3 races. Team Wilfong entry lost last at 4/5 so the 7-1 morning line might be wishful. But should be a player at a nice price with a smooth trip.

Race 13 (10:56 PM EDT)

2-Luxurious (4-1)-This is another Brett Wilfong entry that appears to have landed at a more comfortable level. Should be forwardly placed against this kind and could stand tall to the wire with a less taxing trip.
10-Tug And Coop (9/2)-Needs a ground saving journey to post a win and also some luck at the start. But there could be a way to get a top of the stack trip following some inside speed. The price should be right to take a swing in a race without a standout.

Race 14 (11:19 PM EDT)

9-CS Flying Co-Pilot (2-1)-Started the year 0-4 but this smells like a drop and pop winner. The post helps the price and has won 9 of 40 HoP. The 4-year-old should have his way with this field if Trace Tetrick does his job.

$2 Late Pick 4

3,5/2,7/2,10/9
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:35 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Sha Tin | May 31, 2025

May 30, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

It has been a long, cold streak for me in the Pearl of the Orient, but it’s another day and another opportunity to turn some things around! My ROI for the meet is still above the dirt, but a heavy day at Happy Valley this Wednesday cost me a lot of ground. That’s the nature of the business, though, we have peaks and valleys and stick to our discipline through it all.

Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +34%

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – May 31
Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.

Race 1 | 1400M | Class 5
Win – 10 HO HO STAR
Quinella Box – 2,10,12

Notes: 10 HO HO STAR (21/1 ML) has shown an ability to close well at six furlongs in his last five races and gets an extra furlong to close out this field. His morning line odds don’t reflect what I believe to be a strong streak of races he’s on. Morning line favorite 1 CIRCUIT MIGHTY has had the benefit of running at a ten-pound handicap in his last two races in Class 4, and even though he’s dropping to Class 5 for this one I don’t think he’s quite fast enough in his seven-year-old campaign to be deserving of the 2/1 odds. Other price-favorable standouts include 2 LUCKY MAN (11/1) firing from the rail and 12 TATTENHAM (9/2) who both have put up consistently strong speed ratings coming into this bout.

Race 6 | 1600M | G3 The Lion Rock Trophy
Win – 1 RED LION
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 4,7

Notes: In the headlining race of the card, a group of familiar foes are running it back again over a mile. 1 RED LION (15/2 ML) looks like he’s going to get the lead again from the rail draw and could gate-to-wire this field. His biggest competitor will be morning line favorite 6 SUNSHINE POWER (2/1 ML) who will be tasked with chasing him down again, a feat he was unable to do in their last race against one another. It’ll take a repeat of a huge run, but I like our chances. In the off-chance that SUNSHINE POWER gets caught up in a hectic field, two attractive prices come in 4 BEAUTY JOY (11/1) and 7 DIVANO (15/2) who are in good form and have a solid chance at crashing the board.

Race 10 | 1650M | Class 2 (All-Weather)
Win – 11
Exacta – 11 w/ 1,5,10

Notes: 11 TALENTS AMBITION (7/2 ML) looks like a horse for the course and surface here, and gets the added benefit of carrying only 116 pounds. This four-year-old son of INTO MISCHIEF not only has demonstrated the ability to run well carrying up to 135 pounds, but has a record of 7-2-1-3 on the All-Weather course at Sha Tin. His Morning Line is fairly short, but I like some prices underneath to make his victory even sweeter. 1 HELENE FEELING (16/1 ML) is making his first try on the synthetic course, but is in great form lately running against Class 2 competition or better. 5 TELECOM FIGHTERS (52/1 ML) is likely to be the front-runner, and while he has struggled to hold it we are presented with some uncertainty at a big price. I like his chances at those odds of holding on just long enough to be chased down by our top choice. 10 MUST GO (10/1 ML) is an intriguing choice, but has not quite been capable of going this distance. He can certainly be in the mix, however, and has demonstrated sustained success on the All-Weather course going 16-5-3-1 in mostly sprints before getting this bump in class.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:36 AM

By The Numbers: Power Ratings for Sha Tin's G3 Lion Rock Trophy

May 30, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

Saturday’s feature at Sha Tin is the Group 3 Lion Rock Trophy. This one-mile contest for three-year-olds and up sports a purse of HK$4,200,000 (about $535K USD) and is filled with stakes-tested horses going toe-to-toe. To help you with your handicapping, we ran the numbers and put together each horse’s weighted average speed figures heading into Saturday’s bout.

1 | RED LION (IRE) | 15/2
Burke Power Rating: 100 (3rd)
Jockey: H Bowman (10.98%) | Trainer: J Size (14.71%)

Forecast: Coming off a huge run winning a Group 1 stakes race, RED LION is looking to repeat his gate-to-wire performance against this Group 3 field. He gets the rail and retains the services of Hugh Bowman, both of which play very much in his front-running favor. He was 90/1 in his last outing and put up a 104 speed figure, which is a drastic jump from the mid-90s he had been running up to that point. This horse has potential if local-leader John Size has figured him out, but will have to repeat the race of his late career to do so.

2 | CHANCHENG GLORY (USA) | 26/1
Burke Power Rating: 97 (8th)
Jockey: L Ferraris (8.57%) | Trainer: K W Lui (12.7%)

Forecast: CHANCHENG GLORY is on a streak of three mediocre runs after putting up some impressive numbers back in January going nine furlongs. This race feels too steep, and the familiar field has beaten CHANCHENG GLORY without much hassle. Look for this horse to be in the back of the pack and try to outrun his odds in a tough spot.

3 | BEAUTY ETERNAL (AUS) | 53/1
Burke Power Rating: 95 (9th)
Jockey: J Oman (4.41%) | Trainer: J Size (14.71%)

Forecast: Leading jockey Zac Purton struggled to do much in a pair of Group 1 starts for this six-year-old gelding, and since losing that mount the horse just hasn’t been able to finish races easily. He always seems to find traffic and his speed figures are in a negative pattern coming into this one. As always, John Size runs a barn worth a look, but it’s an uphill battle.

4 | BEAUTY JOY (AUS) | 11/1
Burke Power Rating: 98 (5th)
Jockey: Z Purton (22.83%) | Trainer: A S Cruz (6.51%)

Forecast: BEAUTY JOY, coming off that April 27th Group 1 race that featured many from this field, gets the privilege of Zac Purton coming aboard for this outing. The pace of the race doesn’t benefit him, but Purton is definitely the jockey I’d want on my horse if I were looking to get back into form in a big spot. His speed ratings have been a class below some others with a few highlights, so the potential is there but he’ll likely need things to fall apart up front.

5 | HAPPY TOGETHER (AUS) | 13/1
Burke Power Rating: 98 (6th)
Jockey: A Badel (9.52%) | Trainer: F C Lor (10.79%)

Forecast: Another familiar foe, HAPPY TOGETHER finished almost three lengths back for sixth in the April 27th Group 1 but has certainly been trending well outside of his attempt at ten furlongs in February. The speed here is consistent, which is a big advantage in a circuit with a lot of variance, but the upside hasn’t quite been there since his 2025 campaign debut.

6 | SUNLIGHT POWER (AUS) | 2/1
Burke Power Rating: 103 (1st)
Jockey: H Bentley (5.84%) | Trainer: P F Yiu (13.71%)

Forecast: A deserving favorite, SUNLIGHT POWER has been trending up all year. The five-year-old son of CAPITALIST with a DUBAWI mare ran off the charts in Class 2 efforts this year before climbing back to the Group Stakes ranks. In his last race, he found some traffic and had to ease up early before making a dash at RED LION who fended him off. The potential is certainly there, but he could be looking at another task of hunting down a lone leader who has proven to be too much at a mile.

7 | DIVANO (AUS) | 15/2
Burke Power Rating: 102 (2nd)
Jockey: Y L Chung (5.76%) | Trainer: K W Lui (12.7%)

Forecast: DIVANO is an intriguing choice in this field, showing a lot of upside in his last five tries. He’s 15-5-2-4 lifetime, and could be set up perfectly with RED LION setting the pace on Saturday. DIVANO is making a step up in class, coming off a Class 2 run where he worked hard early to no benefit and faded quickly coasting through the finish. Even with that disappointing effort, his speed figure came in at 104 and can’t be overlooked. He gets some weight relief, carrying only 119 pounds in this one, and could be one to watch.

8 | ENCOUNTERED (IRE) | 26/1
Burke Power Rating: 93 (10th)
Jockey: K Teetan (4.65%) | Trainer: D J Hall (3.6%)

Forecast: This Irish-bred son of CHURCHILL has been trending poorly and was scratched from his last entry on May 4th. He’d been dropping in class up to this point and now finds himself back up in a Group 3 stakes race. This is a big step for this six-year-old who has seldomly seen the Winner’s Circle in his last two campaigns.

9 | JOHANNES BRAHMS (GB) | 7/2
Burke Power Rating: 98 (7th)
Jockey: A Atzeni (13.61%) | Trainer: P C Ng (3.7%)

Forecast: JOHANNES BRAHMS is a classic European style runner, sitting well back and making huge strides to close out races. He’s in new territory after a couple of tries in the Class 2 division and a handful of four-year-old restricted races, but certainly has shown the local scene enough to warrant a run here. The morning line is a bit short for his resume, but maybe the connections see something here and want to give him a fair shake at stakes glory.

10 | KA YING GENERATION (IRE) | 26/1
Burke Power Rating: 79 (11th)
Jockey: M F Poon (4.68%) | Trainer: P C Ng (3.7%)

Forecast: KA YING GENERATION is a tough runner to figure out, seeming fit for longer distances and cutting back here to just a mile, but this race doesn’t feel like the spot where he puts it all together. The son of CHURCHILL comes out of a barn struggling as of late and is up against a much more seasoned field of big stakes runners. He has run the mile course once in his career and didn’t hit the board. The morning line seems fair, and he may be slow out of the gate against the one-mile pace.

11 | PRAY FOR MIR (AUS) | 5/1
Burke Power Rating: 99 (4th)
Jockey: M Chadwick (6.62%) | Trainer: W K Mo (10.24%)

Forecast: PRAY FOR MIR has shown flashes that indicate there’s something to be found here, but he just hasn’t wanted to go by to find the wire in his last five starts. He can be a bit one-paced and runs at or below average through the final stretches of his races. With the speed found in this field, and the tactical abilities of others, he’s going to have to put up a serious effort to put away our Group 3 competitors on Saturday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:36 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Saturday Woodbine Stakes Spot Plays

May 30, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

When you have reigning Canadian Horse of the Year Patches O'Houlihan and 2024 King's Plate-winning filly Caitlinhergreatness on the same card, you know it's big doings at Woodbine this Saturday. The former headlines the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier as the opening race on the card, while the latter goes in Race 10's Bell Mahone Stakes. Let's take a look at some key spot plays on the program.

Race 8: Grade 3 Royal North Stakes

Young trainer Miguel Clement takes over the family stable after the passing last Sunday of his father, Christophe, and #10 Gal in a Rush could give him his first major victory in the legacy era. This mare gets the important second-off-the-layoff start in the form cycle and arguably may improve with a move from the Tapeta to the turf. Outside draw shouldn't be a hindrance for the late-running mare. I'll play her 6-1 morning line odds and use in exacta key boxes with logicals like #8 Earhart and #2 Toupie, as well as #4 Dancing Duchess.

//

Race 9: Grade 2 Eclipse Stakes

#7 Webslinger is 2-1 second choice on the morning line and my preference vs. Mark Casse barnmate #3 Get Smokin, the ML chalk. Both are coming off layoffs, which isn't rare in WO stakes this time of year. Jockey Patrick Husbands is 23% winner with a positive ROI in Woodbine route stakes on the main track over the last 5 years.

//

Race 10: Grade 3 Belle Mahone Stakes

All eyes will be on the 4-year-old return of King's Plate heroine Caitlinhergreatness and she's breathing fiery bullet after fiery bullet in her morning workouts. But these are open-company elders and that's a challenge not worth taking an underlay price. The value play is #4 Literate at 6-1 morning line. She's 4: 3-1-0 on the Woodbine Tapeta. Note the Civaci-Drexler jockey-trainer combo is 23-for-32 in the exacta when teamed in Woodbine stakes the past 5 years. She's been facing tougher of late. Win play #4 and exacta key-box with #1, #2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #7

#1 Vlahos	He's probably not supposed to have a real chance at this kind of level, but he could be the cheaper controlling pace in this spot without much serious front-end burn.
#2 Nysos	He's tactical enough to avoid losing touch with the top choice, and he's the obvious one to beat even after suffering his first career defeat last out in Grade I company. Tough.
#4 Smooth Cruisen	He has so far found stakes groups a bit deep, but he might be in an OK spot turning for home. Chance for a piece, but I think another will land this.
Race Summary	Vlahos faded late with cheaper last time out but there's a chance he can control this tempo throughout and spring an upset if nobody respects him enough to engage early.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#6 Major Tom	Finisher has some tactical ability that makes him tough here -- his rider has a couple options out of the gate as to where to place him, and his better stuff fits well.
#8 Howbeit	He's not what he once was while earning a half million dollars, but he's still got some decent form on the page that should keep him in the mix at this kind of local level.
#3 Grazen Sun	He should be mixing it up early, and there isn't a ton of super serious pace signed on. Could have a fun run up top.
Race Summary	Major Tom will have to avoid winding up with too much to do late, but his form fits and he can offer better than that last one.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#2 Quick Brown Fox	She faded late going long behind a sharp one last time out, so I'm willing to draw a line through that one and hope she gets back to something like the impressive turf sprint graduation. Lots to like.
#4 Lovely Idaho	She has already proven to be a pretty honest filly and should be right up in the action from the start again today. Most committed sprint player could run them off today.
#5 Invincible Molly	Isolate the non-stakes turf sprint form and her page looks pretty good. One of the ones again today, but I'm not super enthusiastic about her on top unless the price were a bit more interesting than the 4/1 ML.
Race Summary	Quick Brown Fox was solid in that two-back run, and she has a couple built-in excuses after chasing a sharp winner going long on the dirt last out. Back to her best game today?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:37 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #2

#6 EMBRACE MY UNCLE (2-1)	Late runner plays to a steady beat, ran second in shorter sprint off layoff.
#7 HEAT MERCHANT (8-1)	Can make good use of his speed from the outside, use in gimmick wagers.
#2 YORKVILLE (6-1)	Earned nearly half of his $100k bankroll with three wins at this distance.
Race Summary	EMBRACE MY UNCLE picked up where he left off five months ago, rallying from far back to finish second on a day when speed carried well. The $250k earner won twice under these conditions late last year and the added ground suits the lightweight in the field. Bet to win and place and play a 6/2, 7/ALL trifecta.

Woodbine - Race #3

#3 VEERY (3-1)	Four wins in second half of 2024, sheds blinkers, plays catch-me-if-you-can.
#4 HURRICANE CLAIR (2-1)	Won on firm and good turf in 3yo season spent mostly in stakes.
#1 CREVALLE D’ORO (3-1)	Ran second on soft footing at this level, draws rail on return home.
Race Summary	VEERY, a lightly-raced 7-year-old, made nearly half of her lifetime starts last year. She knows how to win and will take some catching in her first route attempt on the lawn. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.

Woodbine - Race #5

#2 MALDINI (6-1)	Kicked clear in 7-path to break maiden, stretches out, changes riders again.
#8 PIERRE (5-1)	Good fit at this level and distance, checked out of otherwise useful return as a gelding.
#3 BOWMAN’S RUN (5-2)	Won at this level, albeit on turf, hot barn is 19-percent with layoff types.
Race Summary	MALDINI returned home and powered away from a next-out maiden winner at 7F. He has long-distance experience should have ample pace flow to run at for a 15-percent ‘repeat’ barn. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-8 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:38 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - May 31

May. 30, 2025

Race #1
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:00 PM ET
$37,000.00

Race 1 Starter Optional Claiming

Win	9-2	5	Simplexity	A Fresu
Place	6-5	3	Yacowlef	H I Berrios
Show	6-1	7	Megayacht	M E Smith
Wild card	20-1	6	Father Delay	K Carmouche
Alternate 1	4-1	1	Hurricane Cloud	T J Pereira
Alternate 2	12-1	2	Neon Lights	E A Maldonado

Exacta 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:32 PM ET
$14,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	6-5	4	Naftis	W R Orantes
Place	2-1	5	Whiskeyinateacup	E Hernandez
Show	4-1	2	Uplift	K Frey
Wild card	5-1	3	Six Hot Grands	S Carmona
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Arteta	A Aguilar

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:05 PM ET
Best Bet #3 OLE SILVER
$17,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	9-5	3	Ole Silver	A Lezcano
Place	2-1	1	Tiergarten	A Fresu
Show	6-1	4	Violet Storm	A Ayuso
Wild card	3-1	5	Sweet Hello	K J Desormeaux
Alternate 1	8-1	6	Hollywood Mistress	T J Pereira
Alternate 2	12-1	2	Sensational Z Z	E Hernandez

Exacta 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
Race #4
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:36 PM ET
$61,000.00

Race 4 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	3-1	2	Flyover	A Fresu
Place	2-1	4	Jimmy Blue Jeans	J J Hernandez
Show	5-2	6	Brazenly	T J Pereira
Wild card	12-1	7	Lil Richards Bello	A Ayuso
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Canani	K Frey
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Rodrigoknows	M E Smith

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:06 PM ET
$20,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Claiming

Win	3-1	3	Toppers At Seaside	K Carmouche
Place	4-1	5	Mongolian Gold	A Aguilar
Show	9-2	1	The Gypsy Cowboy	T Baze
Wild card	5-2	7	Power Play	T J Pereira
Alternate 1	7-2	2	Bigredsandribeyes	K Kimura
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Jumper Cables	R Gonzalez

Exacta 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
Race #6
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 06:38 PM ET
Best Bet #8 BIG MAMA SUE
$61,000.00

Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	9-5	8	Big Mama Sue	K J Desormeaux
Place	7-2	4	Berry Valley	K Frey
Show	5-1	7	Vincero Grande	D A Herrera
Wild card	9-2	5	Practical Dazzle	J J Hernandez
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Ultimate Hy	T J Pereira
Alternate 2	6-1	3	Shezmisbehaving	A Ayuso

Exacta 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
Trifecta 4/7/8 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:08 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	3-5	2	Nysos	J J Hernandez
Place	2-1	5	Dr. Venkman	A Fresu
Show	12-1	3	Spirit of Makena	K Frey
Wild card	6-1	4	Smooth Cruisein	T J Pereira
Alternate 1	10-1	1	Vlahos	E A Maldonado

Exacta 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
Race #8
Turf 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:38 PM ET
$33,000.00

Race 8 Maiden Claiming

Win	5-2	2	Cloudy Women	H I Berrios
Place	4-1	4	Infinity Dream	A Ayuso
Show	7-2	3	Frog	K Frey
Wild card	9-2	5	Ellie Moore	J J Hernandez
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Uptown Sweetheart	K Kimura
Alternate 2	8-1	1	Dixies Delight	A Lezcano

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:08 PM ET
$16,500.00

Race 9 Starter Allowance

Win	4-1	6	Major Tom	G Franco
Place	5-1	1	Clements Ride	T J Pereira
Show	2-1	3	Grazen Sun	A Aguilar
Wild card	7-2	8	Howbeit	W Antongeorgi III
Alternate 1	9-2	4	Bronko Nagurski	T Baze
Alternate 2	10-1	5	Quality Cat	A Ayuso

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
Race #10
Downhill turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:38 PM ET
Best Bet #8 BEYOND LUCKY
$61,000.00

Race 10 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	9-2	8	Beyond Lucky	K Carmouche
Place	5-2	4	Lovely Idaho	A Ayuso
Show	5-1	2	Quick Brown Fox	K Kimura
Wild card	4-1	5	Invincible Molly	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	20-1	6	Illhaveanotherkiss	E A Maldonado
Alternate 2	20-1	7	Magale	A Fresu

Exacta 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/8 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:39 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 31

May. 30, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 12:45 PM ET
Best Bet #5 CHILLAX
$120,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	8-5	5	Chillax	J A Torres
Place	3-1	2	Cromwell	J L Ortiz
Show	4-1	1	Bourbon Society	C Landeros
Wild card	20-1	6	Chachaching	E A Roman
Alternate 1	5-1	4	Excite	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Kavanaugh	L Saez

Exacta 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:14 PM ET
Best Bet #4 UNCASHED
$64,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	4-1	4	Uncashed	W A Rodriguez
Place	5-1	5	M Bs Munning	J L Ortiz
Show	8-1	11	One Cool Dude	J A Torres
Wild card	10-1	12	Lightning Struck	C A Torres
Alternate 1	10-1	10	Higher Standard	G Saez
Alternate 2	12-1	8	Chryso Alogo	J D Ramos

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX, 11-12 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/11 BOX, 5/11/12 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:43 PM ET
$92,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-1	9	Topic Thunder	L Saez
Place	9-2	3	Quick Sand	J L Ortiz
Show	4-1	11	Stardialed	L Machado
Wild card	8-1	2	Backgammon	A Beschizza
Alternate 1	5-1	13	Princess Breanna	C A Torres
Alternate 2	6-1	1	Mo Em Down	F Prat

Exacta 9-3 BOX, 3-11 BOX, 11-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/9/11 BOX, 2/3/11 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:14 PM ET
$120,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	4	Kapoor	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	6-1	11	Speighter Woman	J A Torres
Show	4-1	9	Merry Madison	J L Ortiz
Wild card	9-2	7	Strong Destiny	F Prat
Alternate 1	12-1	10	Blackjack Mary	C J Lanerie
Alternate 2	15-1	2	Tap the Champagne	W A Rodriguez

Exacta 4-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
Trifecta 4/9/11 BOX, 7/9/11 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:46 PM ET
Best Bet #2 TETIAROA
$127,000.00

Race 5 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	3-1	2	Tetiaroa	J L Ortiz
Place	8-1	11	Overcome Adversity	J Rosario
Show	7-2	7	Heavenly Sunset	F Prat
Wild card	5-2	6	Clicquot	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	15-1	12	Atarah	J R Velazquez
Alternate 2	10-1	10	Dare to Fly	B Curtis

Exacta 2-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/7/11 BOX, 6/7/11 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:18 PM ET
$275,000.00

Race 6 Stakes

Win	3-1	7	World Record	F Prat
Place	7-5	6	Skelly	R Santana Jr.
Show	6-1	1	Champlin	L Saez
Wild card	4-1	3	Giant Mischief	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	6-1	4	Happy Is a Choice	R Gutierrez
Alternate 2	15-1	2	Durante	J L Ortiz

Exacta 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/6/7 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
Race #7
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 03:51 PM ET
$275,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	5-1	1	Tomasello	J L Ortiz
Place	9-2	6	World Beater	J A Torres
Show	7-2	3	Scipio	L Saez
Wild card	3-1	8	Early Adopter	F Prat
Alternate 1	10-1	4	Mesero	C J Lanerie
Alternate 2	5-1	5	Charlies to Blame	J Rosario

Exacta 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:23 PM ET
$275,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	6-1	6	Alpine Princess	F Geroux
Place	10-1	3	Royal Spa	F Prat
Show	5-2	1	Wheres My Ring	L Saez
Wild card	5-1	4	Hoosier Philly	E Morales
Alternate 1	7-2	7	Gin Gin	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	10-1	2	Corningstone	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
Race #9
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:55 PM ET
$275,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	3-1	8	Mercante	J D Ramos
Place	7-2	9	Brilliant Berti	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	8-1	6	Call Protection	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	6-1	4	Herchee	E Morales
Alternate 1	9-2	5	Lagynos	F Prat
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Gigante	J L Ortiz

Exacta 8-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
Trifecta 6/8/9 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 05:27 PM ET
$275,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	7-2	7	Most Wanted	F Geroux
Place	3-1	9	Post Time	S Russell
Show	8-1	6	Hall of Fame	J L Ortiz
Wild card	9-2	8	Banishing	F Prat
Alternate 1	6-1	2	Alexander Helios	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	4-1	4	Mystik Dan	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 7-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/9 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX
Race #11
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 05:58 PM ET
$275,000.00

Race 11 Stakes

Win	5-2	5	Classic Q	J L Ortiz
Place	6-1	2	Hereforagoodtime	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	4-1	8	Fionn	F Geroux
Wild card	3-1	7	Lush Lips	F Prat
Alternate 1	20-1	9	Mechaya	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	10-1	6	Totally Justified	L Saez

Exacta 5-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:39 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 31, 2025

May. 29, 2025

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 31 | Post Time 5:27 PM Eastern
Blame Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $275,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Four Year Olds and Upward
Analysis and win contenders in preference order:
The Blame Stakes is prep for the Stephen Foster Stakes next month and this 10-horse field is loaded with talent, with six of the group having won or placed in their most recent races.
Before I get into the contenders, I want to write about the vulnerable starting favorite, Post Time (9). I would never want to be the person who sets the starting odds, or morning line, trying to predict as best as possible what the final odds would be, because it’s a thankless job. I won’t in this case either, but I would be very, VERY, surprised, if the three to one starting favorite, Post Time, is the favorite when the race runs. That’s a GOOD THING, because even if he is not the favorite, he will be bet lower than he should be, which provides higher odds on other strong contenders. The problem with Post Time is that despite a 10 for 16 record, he’s only run this nine-furlong distance once, finishing third at 25 to 1 last summer in the Whitney Stakes. He’s NEVER run at Churchill Downs, and although his trainer, Brittany Russell, wins 30% of her races, she is 0 for 8 at Churchill this meeting and 0 for 9 at Churchill over the last few years. Post Time won a classified allowance race at a mile and one sixteenth four weeks ago at Laurel, following five months off, and although he should improve off that effort, there is nothing in his history to suggest he can win in this group.
On the other hand, Banishing (8) missed by a neck in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day four weeks ago, rallying from last of 11 in the process. He’s won at Churchill Downs, and he has only run once at nine furlongs since Jacobson took over training last August. That effort, one before last in April in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, WINS here if repeated. In that race Banishing stalked in third, made the lead with an eighth of a mile to go and tried hard to the end when second to Frist Mission, who would be the odds-on favorite if in this race. Now first or second in NINE straight races, three in which he was beaten a neck or less, and reunited with Flavien Prat, aboard for his win in the Oaklawn Mile and near win in the Razorback Handicap before that, Banishing looks very tough to beat and at the minimum has a very high probability to be in the exacta.
Except for his most recent race, Alexander Helios (2) has proven to be every bit as good as Banishing. He too has won at Churchill Downs, and unlike Banishing and Post Time, Alexander Helios has won at this distance. That win came at Churchill Downs last November, and since then, in five of seven races, he’s run fantastically well. When returning from eight months off in January, Alexander Helios won easily then won the Razorback Handicap in February by a head over Banishing. He didn’t show much interest in running in his only start since, in the Oaklawn Handicap, where Banishing finished second, and I have no problem drawing a line through that race as he returned to Florida and put in a very strong half-mile drill last week in preparation for this race, 47.4, which was the third best of 70 on the day. Although never riding him before, Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call, and if able to run back to his Razorback effort, Alexander Helios has every right to win.
Most Wanted (7) has never finished farther back then second in seven races. He won the first four starts of his career last year as a three-year-old, then faced older in the Clark Stakes at this distance at Churchill Downs and led late but was three-quarters of a length from winner Rattle N Roll at the end. Returning off three and one-half months in March, he led from the start but was no match for the much more accomplished Skippylongstocking (who just won the Hollywood Gold Cup in California last weekend) and settled for second Similarly, Most Wanted was no match for Fierceness last month when leading early but run down late in the Alysheba Stakes. If either Fierceness or Skippylongstocking were in this field they would be the odds-on favorites so those two runner-up efforts might be good enough to win here if repeated. On the other hand, Most Wanted’s best efforts are no better than the best efforts of either Banishing or Alexander Helios and he opens at lower odds (7 to 2).
I can’t go on without mentioning 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (4) is in this race, and like Post Time, his 4 to 1 starting odds are out of line given his probability in this deep field. He will be bet however as the public will note he won the Derby as well as another race at Churchill Downs, and he did appear to turn the corner in his form by missing by a nose four weeks ago in the non-graded stakes at Oaklawn, after three poor efforts in a row following his runner-up finish in last year’s Preakness. Like Most Wanted (with a 4-3-0 record), Mystik Dan has a 3-3-1 record, and can be part of the exacta, but considering he has run this distance twice, with his best finish third in last year’s Arkansas Derby, his best effort may not be good enough to win.
Hall of Fame (6) also has a good record, 4-2-1 in nine races, and he’s won at Churchill Downs, but in two of three efforts at this distance (including one at one mile and three-sixteenth) he’s only managed one second place effort.
Post Time (9), as mentioned above, is vulnerable as the low odds favorite, but could hit the board as well.
Win Bets:
I feel very strongly BOTH Banishing (8) and Alexander Helios (2) are excellent win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Banishing (8) and Alexander Helios (2) over Banishing (8), Alexander Helios (2), Mystik Dan (4), Hall of Fame (6), Most Wanted (7) and Post Time (9).
Banishing (8), Alexander Helios (2) and Most Wanted (7) over Banishing (8), Alexander Helios (2), Mystik Dan (4), Hall of Fame (6), Most Wanted (7) and Post Time (9).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 07:40 AM

Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 31

May. 29, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (2) Cromwell got rolling too late last time. Works out a winning trip today. (5) Chillax has been second in his last two starts. Three in a row? (3) Kavanaugh is putting in some sharp works for this start. (4) Excite may improve on a dry surface. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-5.
3^rd race – (12) If If If can win on debut IF she can handle the outside post. (9) Topic Thunder seems poised for a solid initial start. (1) Mo’ Em Down may be helped by a rail trip. (3) Quick Sand seems to have some talent based on her works. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-9-12.
5th race – (2) Tetiarosa (A) was an impressive debut winner and should handle winners here. (3) Anonima has been running in stakes and is the one to fear. (7) Heavenly Sunset could be tough to catch here. (5) Justinqueso will get a boost from a dry surface. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-7.
7th race – (8) Early Adopter rallied sharply to take an allowance race and seems on edge to return to stakes company. (5) Charlie’s to Blame will welcome a return to turf. (1) Tomasello seeks a third straight win and belongs in the exotics. (3) Scipio is worth a look on firm turf. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-8.
9th race – (2) Cameo Performance (B) was hurt by a wide trip in a Grade 1 stakes and can make amends here. (8) Mercante was second in that stakes and will be the main rival. (7) Silent Heart can bounce back with a better try in this spot. (9) Brilliant Berti can make his presence felt here. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-7-8-9.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(2)	Tetiarosa	A, 5/2	5 CD	An impressive debut winner
(2)	Cameo Performance	B, 5/3	9 CD	Was hurt by a wide trip in a stakes

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2025, 11:49 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Century Mile
PURCHASE

Century Mile - Race 4	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double
Claiming $6,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 6:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,500 (LESSER CLAIMING RACES FOR $6,000 (AB $8,000) OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). AB BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. WHERE'S THE PUMPS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WHERE'S THE PUMPS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HEN RY'S GAMBLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LIGHT FAST FEET: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race wi thin the last 30 days.
5	WHERE'S THE PUMPS	10/1	7/2
1	HENRY'S GAMBLE	3/1	9/2
2	LIGHT FAST FEET	5/2	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	WHERE'S THE PUMPS	5	10/1	Front-runner	73	69	81.4	71.4	68.4
1	HENRY'S GAMBLE	1	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	73	72	71.8	69.0	63.0
2	LIGHT FAST FEET	2	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	70	68	62.4	66.0	61.5
4	COUNT ON IT	4	9/2	Stalker	75	63	60.4	60.0	51.0
7	CORDILLERA	7	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	70	67	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	WHEELSUPINTHIRTY	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	73	66.0	62.2	52.2
3	QUEEN RHONDA	3	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	61	39.8	62.8	54.8