Wednesday 6/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:50 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | June 4, 2025

June 4, 2025

We’re back at Happy Valley for our usual mid-week extravaganza and hoping to wake up to a few winning tickets! As per tradition, Happy Valley is full of races with lots of variance and plenty of worthy competitors at solid morning line prices. Let’s dive in and see what we can find!

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – June 4
Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.

Race 1 | 2200M | Class 5
Win – 11 LEATHER MASTER

Notes: 11 LEATHER MASTER rates above the field in my Power Ratings, but will have to battle to prove he can go a full eleven furlongs. At 7/2 on the ML, I do anticipate he’ll float a bit on the board and provide some needed value. He’s in good form but needs to get off to a clean start to make the most of his trip. If he can ride off the pace-setters and save enough ground from his tenth post, I believe he has a good chance at hitting the wire first.

Race 2 | 1800M | Class 4
Win – 12 KASA PAPA
Exacta Key Box – 12 w/ 2,6

Notes: In a race with little-to-no pace, the setup looks good for our top choice in eight-year-old 12 KASA PAPA. At 8/1 on the morning line, this looks like a play worth chasing. I expect our top choice to be placed forward alongside 9 FIREFOOT, but KASA PAPA should have an edge around the final turn. Whether he can fend off some strong closers or not, that will be the ultimate test, but he’ll be carrying just 117 pounds as he makes his own final push. Let’s also play the Exacta keying our top choice with two short-priced choices that look deserving of their ML odds.

Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – 1 MIDORI FUJI
Exacta – 1 w/ 2,8,9,10

Notes: 1 MIDORI FUJI looks like a clear standout and gets the best mount in Hong Kong. I think he could be the most-likely winner on the card if he stays in form. However, after our top choice the ratings plateau quickly. I’m playing our top choice over the longest prices that fit in our ratings plateau before they drop off again. We have to play the chances here, but if any of our big prices find their way forward going down the stretch we could be in for a big take.

Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 8 LOVING VIBES

Notes: Expect 5 FREE PONY to hit the lead followed closely by 2 BIENVENUE and 8 LOVING VIBES waiting to pounce. My Power Ratings favor 8 LOVING VIBES at a bit better of a price than the ML favorite, and his final times reflect a horse that can win at a faster pace than others in this field. His speed is there, and he should get a nice trip from just outside the anticipated frontrunner while 2 BIENVENUE will be battling traffic from an inside post to get to his ideal trip.

Race 6 | 1200M | Class 3
Exacta Key Box – 11 w/ 3,5

Notes: Our key in this race rates third in the field, but by just over a point. At 11/1 roaring from far off the pace, I like this runner’s chances at coming up late and crashing the board at a big price. 3 BEAUTY INFINITY and 5 STORM RIDER should benefit from two speeds wearing each other down, and while I firmly expect either to be there at the wire I like our potential company to make a surprise run and light up the board.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 2
Exacta Key Box – 4 w/ 1,2,11

Notes: There are four major contenders here according to my Power Ratings, and when presented with this situation I tend to lock up the biggest price of them all and key them in some exotics with the other big runners. In this case, we’ve got 4 GUSTOSISIMO (22/1 ML) tied to three of the more shortly priced horses in the field, all of which have a more-than-fair chance at taking the finale in Hong Kong. Let’s hope our longshot lives up to his speed figures and wraps up the day with a bang.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:51 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Wednesday Belmont Racing Festival Spot Plays

June 3, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The 4-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga gets underway with a series of New York-bred stakes on Wednesday. Here are my key plays on the program.

Saratoga | Race 3 | 1:46 pm ET

#8 Lady Delilah (15-1 morning line odds) ran a couple of solid turf sprints here last summer, and notably made a big improvement from the first start to the second. She’s in that all-important second start in her current form cycle after an even return from 6 months away. Adds Lasix for the first time. Win bet #8.

Saratoga | Race 5 | 2:51 pm ET

#2 Pay the Juice (4-1 morning line odds) ran very well here in 2 starts as a juvenile, rare for a Shug McGaughey trainee to come out popping like he did. Difficult post had him hung wide in his Aqueduct return but now benefits from the 2-hole and presence of Flavien Prat. Win bet #2. Exacta box 2-4.

Saratoga | Race 9 | Mount Vernon Stakes | 5:12 pm ET

#10 Whatlovelookslike (7-2 morning line odds) has the best finishing kick in a race that should cook pretty hot in terms of early pace pressure. She’s also the class of the race exiting 3 straight graded stakes against far tougher than these NY-breds. Win #10. Single in multi-race bets.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:54 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#3 This Laughs On You	That was a decent enough debut run to think a small step forward in this first start of his 3-year-old season could put him home first.
#4 Boujie Betz	She wasn't embarrassed in stakes company late last meet, and she's back with friends where she has shared before. Forward player fits well.
#7 Palace Revolt	Wouldn't be shocked if this guy won easily here today, as his better stuff looks tough with these, but he has so far just been a bit lacking in the final yards. Needs to find a bit more punch.
Race Summary	This Laughs On You ran OK at first asking in a small group last season, but some reasonable upside here makes him interesting in what feels like a competitive group. Would take something a bit shorter than the 5/1 ML offering.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 Going Up	Willing to take a solid stand here with some attacking pace from the outside. He's not meeting an overload of early burn in this spot, and he may be able to force the issue the whole way.
#4 My Buddy B	Suppose they're using this as a launching pad for bigger and better things the rest of the season, but I've got a little pause here while trying to figure out exactly what he's doing here with form that would easily fit in at least minor stakes company if he's at all ready to go off the bench. I dunno....
#2 Ibrim	His synthetic form is compelling enough to give him a look while coming back off the bench, and he should be in a good spot turning for home.
Race Summary	Going Up figures for a perfect trip right up on the splits here, and I'm hoping the presence of last-out Grade III winner My Buddy B will keep the price playable.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Argumental	Not sure if she's the right one, but I'm really looking for someone who might be able to get past horses here in a spot where few of them have any real proven finishing form. Her October run here would keep her in the frame if she can get back to it.
#2 Time Leap	She seems like a really good fit back to try winners at this level, and her graduation run came with the kind of trip that could make her really tough here. Mild worry that she'll end up with a tricky forward run with some pace drawn outside of her, but she might dunk on these if she goes cleanly. Wouldn't argue with you here.
#8 Good To Be Truge	Speed fits here, but she has made a real habit of coughing up a few lengths in the stretch call, and I think that makes her vulnerable again late. In the mix.
Race Summary	Argumental doesn't have a ton of inspiring form, but I kept returning to the three-back run on her page over the local footing -- think that kind of spying trip would play really well with today's race flow.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:55 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#6 AFTERNEATH (8-1) --	Can make good use of her speed with alert start that evaded her in return.
#3 MABEE A MIRACLE (7-2) --	Romped in the slop in second start after 14 months away for Ness.
#1 JUST THE THING (6-1) --	Finished in money in 5 of 8 starts this year, most for a higher tag.
Race Summary	AFTERNEATH bumped with the winner at the start, stalked the pace 4-wide and floated wider for an even run through the stretch. She shortens up to what should be a favorable distance in her second start since January. Bet to win and place and play 6-1, 6-3 and 3-6 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#4 OUR BEST SONG (2-1) –	Poor start proved costly against next-out repeat winner, turf the question.
#6 MY GREY HUMOR (4-1) –	Followed move of 15-1 winner in lone turf try, gets Lasix for return.
#1 GORTREAGH GAL (12-1) &ndash	Rallied for second at 35-1, takes confident class hike for hot barn.
Race Summary	OUR BEST SONG broke in the air, loomed 4-wide on the turn and tired in a useful debut on the dirt at Oaklawn Park. The performance was upgraded when race winner Pink Ruby duplicated her wire-to-wire victory in a $75,000 optional claimer at Monmouth Park. If she handles the turf, she should handle this field. Bet to win and place and play a 4/1, 6/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#6 BELLA CREED (8-1) –	Improved speed off freshening with second-time Lasix, longshot stab.
#1 TRICKY RIVER (7-5) –	Dueled and lost as fave in lone start at ages 2 and 3, returns from year layoff.
#3 ZIPPY DO DA DAY (Even) &nda	Second before layoff, second after layoff to fall to 0-for-15.
Race Summary	BELLA CREED pressed the winning favorite on the inside but tired in the stretch in an improved try with second-time Lasix. She finished 2 lengths behind morning-line favorite ZIPPY DO DA DAY and is worth a win and place bet at better odds. Also play a 1-3-6 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 6	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 6-7) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $11,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $17,800 • Post: 3:25P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. IRON MAN IRA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IRON MAN IRA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Ho rse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	IRON MAN IRA	5/2	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	IRON MAN IRA	1	5/2	Front-runner	82	78	90.8	74.2	68.7
7	TIZ DONEGAL	7	4/1	Front-runner	90	89	64.5	51.2	45.7
8	IT'S NOT OVER YET	8	6/1	Front-runner	60	54	51.6	37.8	24.3
5	ICE TIME	5	6/1	Trailer	86	75	38.6	64.8	58.3
4	INDEPENDENT PAUL	4	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	74	74.2	59.4	49.4
6	STREET COP OFFICER	6	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	77	61.6	74.2	66.7
2	ROCKIBLE	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	63	70.2	43.2	32.7
3	KINGDOM ON PAWS	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	74	51.6	55.6	44.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs
PURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 1	ROLLING DOUBLE / .20 PICK 3 (Races 1-2-3) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR EXACTOR
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 7:30P
FOR MB/SASK/ND/SD BREDS MAIDENS, COLTS AND GELDINGS THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SPIKE IT RICH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MOONMAN RULES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	SPIKE IT RICH	4/5	5/2
1	MOONMAN RULES	7/5	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SPIKE IT RICH	3	4/5	Stalker	71	51	54.0	48.3	45.3
1	MOONMAN RULES	1	7/5	Trailer	68	62	22.6	58.0	54.5
2	JUST SPECULATING	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	25.6	20.6

Unknown Running Style: PLEASANT TIME (25/1) [Jockey: Belle Shavon - Trainer: Thompson Steven], LITTLE EDDIE (8/1) [Jockey: Knights Rachaad - Trainer: Desjarlais Ryan].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:56 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 ITSONLYMONEYHONEY 3/1
# 3 COMMUNICATIONISKEY 8/5
# 6 PAULA M 9/5

My selection in this contest is ITSONLYMONEYHONEY. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. Looks decent for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races as of late. Reason to like this mare as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. COMMUNICATIONISKEY - Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (60 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Will likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the race. PAULA M - Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a key contender. This animal has a fantastic winning percentage in dirt sprints.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:56 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#5 ICE BLAST (ML=8/1)

ICE BLAST - Chavez and Rivera teamed up together are a punter's friend. This horse is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Rivera. This horse is tops in earnings per race. Check out this horse before the race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GEAUX YOSHKA (ML=9/5), #4 BUCKET LIST (ML=2/1), #3 NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO (ML=3/1),

GEAUX YOSHKA - This mount just hasn't been winning as the favorite. BUCKET LIST - Last raced on May 29th at Thistledown, finishing fifth. Unlikely to improve off of that effort in today's race. NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO - The fourth place finish in the last event was not that great. This gelding registered a rating in his last race which likely isn't good enough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 ICE BLAST on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:56 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 104

KINGSTON S. - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 ANTONIO OF VENICE 4/1
# 9 HUSH OF A STORM 2/1
# 1 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA 7/2

I favor ANTONIO OF VENICE here. Has been running soundly lately and will almost certainly be on or close to the front end early on. HUSH OF A STORM - With a solid 104 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this horse a solid choice. ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA - Should keep the impressive string of finish positions intact today. This horse is a definite contender based on his earnings per start in turf route contests.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-04-2025, 08:56 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 4:24pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#1 SHOWDOWN KING (ML=2/1)

SHOWDOWN KING - He has the topmost earnings per start (EPS). Check out this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SANPIRODU (ML=3/1), #4 I'M THE CABANA BOY (ML=4/1), #5 CHANGE THE HOUR (ML=9/2),

SANPIRODU - Just can't wager on this runner. Didn't show me anything last out or on March 6th. I'M THE CABANA BOY - A pattern of deteriorating speed figs 80/75/70 for this steed. CHANGE THE HOUR - Speed ratings tell a tale of dropping condition.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 SHOWDOWN KING to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Wednesday 6/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 6/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment