Wednesday 6/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:16 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | June 11, 2025

June 10, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

We’re back at Happy Valley for our usual mid-week extravaganza and hoping to wake up to a few winning tickets! As per tradition, Happy Valley is full of races with lots of variance and plenty of worthy competitors at solid morning line prices. Let’s dive in and see what we can find!

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – June 11
Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.

Race 1 | 1650M | Class 5
Quinella Box – 4,7,10

Notes: 5 WINDICATOR FAMILY sticks out in the power rankings but has a subpar record running on anything other than a firm turf course. He is 6-1-1-1 on a firm course, and 13-0-0-0 on a merely “good” course. The expected going is good tomorrow, according to the South China Morning Post, and it looks like a good time to play against him. 4 SMILING EMPEROR runs in a yo-yo pattern and looks due for a bigger run tomorrow. 7 PODIUM gets a top mount, and this son of Medaglia d’Oro has been back on track since a disappointing run at six furlongs. 10 TRADITION shows some strong late pace figures, and this Frankel gelding could find himself in the mix. Let’s play a Quinella and hope the odds are in our favor.

Race 2 | 1000M | Class 4
Win – 1 FLYING TING LOK

Notes: Top choice in this field is coming off of a field-best 116 Burke Power figure and has been doing nothing but improving since his debut in Hong Kong. They debuted this gelding in Class 3 and after just three unsuccessful starts, he finds himself dropped down to Class 4. I think the drop is premature, and he’ll demonstrate why firing from the rail and never looking back.

Race 3 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – 9 LESLIE
Exacta – 8 w/ 9

Notes: 8 SOARING BRONCO has been running extremely well and finds himself in a group he should out-class. However, with a scratch to the son of Mendelssohn, Zetta Force, an alternate with consistently solid speed figures and Zac Purton in the irons draws in. With a morning line of 22/1, I can’t pass up a touch on this horse to pull out the upset. In case we’re close, but no cigar, let’s back him up with the clear choice on top in the Exacta.

Race 4 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 5 NEVER TOO SOON

Notes: I must just be chasing alternates on this card, but I’ve found another that I like at a big price! 5 NEVER TOO SOON runs in a yo-yo pattern, putting up big figures and then taking a step back in the next race. According to the pattern in my figures, he’s on the up-swing of his trajectory. The pace looks fair, and this eight-year-old is too tempting at 28/1 on the morning line not to chase.

Race 6 | 1600M | Class 2
Quinella Box – 1,6,8

Notes: Our morning line favorite, 4 HONG LOK GOLF, has been running well, but not quite putting up the figures I’d expect from a 9/5 ML. Surprisingly, 8 STEPS AHEAD finds himself the third choice in this Class 2 battle, although my numbers have his upside as tremendously better than most others. Along those same lines, 1 HELENE FEELING and 6 C P BRAVE look like longshots but are trending in a way that leads me to believe there’s still plenty on the table for both. Let’s play against the short price and box these three in the Quinella.

Race 8 | 1600M | Class 3
Win – 1 A AMERIC TE SPECSO
Exacta Box – 1 w/ 5

Notes: Hong Kong’s leading trainer of the last 90 days is John Size, and John Size has two long shots on the board in this Class 3, mile-long bout. My numbers favor the shorter of the two from his barn, 1 A AMERIC TE SPECSO (21/1 ML), and I’d play this horse at these odds every day of the week if I could. 5 KING OF FIGHTERS (5/2 ML) gets Zac Purton, the best of Hong Kong’s jockeys, and looks to be a clear second-choice in my numbers. Racing is hard to predict, and I like making money, so I’m going to box these two to finish first and second and hope my price play is the one to hit the wire first.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – 1 CHATEAUNEUF
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 5,7,10

Notes: 1 CHATEAUNEUF (9/2 ML) seems to be getting disrespected in the finale of Wednesday’s card after coming up just short in his last try. This horse appears to be the class of the field according to my numbers, and I’m looking at a fairly confident win play here. However, I like the looks and ratings of some bigger prices in the field, and want to make the most of the potential. 5 NORDIC DRAGON (11/1), 7 LOOKING BRIGHT (13/1), and 10 GOLDEN RISE (54/1) are all in the mix in the second tier of the field, and I like their chances as much or more than morning line favorite 4 KING MILES (5/2).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#4 Tiz Speedy	He has some honest finishing form that could make him tough here in a spot with a few forward players who may not see out the trip.
#1 Ramming Speed	He has some back class from a couple years ago, and he handled a mild group off the bench last time out. Reasonable spot to come back -- in the mix.
#6 Thorn of Hearts	Think his better stuff keeps him in the mix, but I worry that he tends to give away ground late in the lane and could be vulnerable to getting picked up in the final yards.
Race Summary	Tiz Speedy is a question mark locally, but I think he gets a decent race flow today to try to kick past this bunch late.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Good Directions	Hoping the presence of the next guy will keep the price somewhat playable here, as this one posted a useful score on the big drop while racing fresh last out and brings some reasonable second-out upside.
#1 Ponce de Leon	He found his best stuff on synthetic footing and landed a stakes score in his only local start here last year, so he's obviously tough in this kind of allowance spot if he's ready to roll.
#2 Hector	Think he's in the mix while getting back to a surface on which he ran well a few times here last season. First-over trip?
Race Summary	Good Directions looked solid enough when scoring last out off the bench, and he steps up to take the next chance while meeting a fresh stakes winner drawn on the fence.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Rock Tune	She has already had a handful of chances, but she has at least shown some willingness to get past horses, and that should work in her favor as she meets a ton of quitting form on paper.
#11 Starship Radiance	Not totally sure what to do here, but I'd let the price drive my decision. She showed nothing in the comeback last out and has some upside today, but it would have been nice to see anything from her that day.
#1 Coeur Douloureux	Inside pace cuts back while dropping for this local debut, and maybe she hustles enough to prove best of the pace at this sharper trip.
Race Summary	Rock Tune has the ability to settle and offer up a mild finish, and that might be enough in a race where most of them leave a lot to be desired late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:19 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 BROTHER LAD (9-2) --	Price shot on class drop, gets blinkers, gets in light, suited for change of tactics.
#5 SIDNEY’S BID (2-1) &n	Hit board in 9 of 17 without winning, second to follow-up 1-to-5 winner in latest.
#3 SIGMUND (4-1) –	Useful but troubled return, sheds 9 pounds for first start on conventional dirt.
Race Summary	BROTHER LAD raced closer to the pace than expected after a bumpy start and back-pedaled out of the money. But the well-traveled and lightly-raced 4-year-old ran his best race at Delaware last July, can revert to off-the-pace tactics today and sheds 7 pounds with blinkers added. It adds up to a win and place bet.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#1 KINGDOM QUEEN (8-1) –	Classy 6yo runs below re-claim level, good fit on best in field that is 16-46.
#3 TRUE SUNSHINE (10-1) &ndash	Twice-beaten fave recently steps up for new barn with 3-7 mark at 5-1/2F.
#4 SMOOTH PEBBLE (2-1) –	Lacked kick in fast-paced turf sprints, seeks first win on the dirt.
Race Summary	KINGDOM QUEEN class drops off the re-claim with an 8/2-2-3 record in sprints since last October. She ran second as the 2-to-5 favorite for $15,000 two back but lost to Hartful Hope (6-26, $119k), who came back to win a $25,000 optional claiming sprint. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-4 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#2 GROUP TICKET (8-5) –	Late kick on display in last pair, goes from a one- to a two-turn mile today.
#7 EPIC LUCK (10-1) –	Ranged up outside of top one near the stretch, flattened out, use in gimmicks.
#5 MR JEFFERSON (3-1) –	Fired winning shot at Pimlico off the layoff, stands 5/0-0-0 at this distance.
Race Summary	Like the way GROUP TICKET finished in his last two starts. He saved ground while tracking the pace-setting favorite and runner-up two starts back, then angled 3-wide for a winning stretch run. He made a comparable mid-track surge in a one-turn mile last out at Laurel Park but couldn’t reach the runaway leader. He will be undervalued in the Ness barn but like his chances to cash in on a win and place bet. Also play a 2-7-ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Meadows
PURCHASE

Fair Meadows - Race 4	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 52 • Purse: $17,050 • Post: 7:24P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (HORSES THAT STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS LEAST PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LOW ON FUNDS is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * CODE ELEVEN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rat ing. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	CODE ELEVEN	3/5	9/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	LOW ON FUNDS	5	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	46.5	24.6	18.6
1	CODE ELEVEN	1	3/5	Trailer	69	43	50.4	46.6	43.6
6	NOTIME FORMISCHIEF	6	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	59.7	49.3	43.8
4	GOSPEL JOURNEY	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	60.0	20.0	11.5
3	GOSPEL FELLA	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	36.5	13.0	3.5
2	REDFORK	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	14.9	14.9	5.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Allowance • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 3:43P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * LITTLE JAKE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CONCENTRATION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOLD SPIRIT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface.
3	LITTLE JAKE	7/5	7/2
2	CONCENTRATION	10/1	5/1
10	BOLD SPIRIT	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	LITTLE JAKE	3	7/5	Front-runner	84	85	78.4	80.0	75.5
10	BOLD SPIRIT	10	6/1	Front-runner	78	78	73.5	72.8	59.8
7	HENRY THE HANK	7	8/1	Front-runner	65	70	57.2	57.2	45.2
1	STRANGER'S CHURCH	1	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	68	68	87.2	56.9	45.9
9	PLAYING THE ANGLES	9	12/1	Stalker	68	68	62.0	50.0	39.5
8	LOOKIN FOR GLORY	8	9/2	Stalker	78	73	60.0	69.4	59.9
2	CONCENTRATION	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	86	67.4	68.0	61.5
6	NINETEENFOURTYFIVE	6	20/1	Trailer	67	59	44.7	47.2	32.2
5	BOUT TREE FIDDY	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	46	55.8	50.8	38.8
4	AIR CHARGER	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	61	40.4	39.4	24.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $22500 Class Rating: 71

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 TLC THE PILOT 5/2
# 3 TF SHES JESS DASHIN 9/5
# 6 DE BELL TRAIN 9/2

I think TLC THE PILOT is a quite good choice. Has performed admirably lately in short races, posting a nifty 73 avg speed figure. Ought to compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. Could provide positive profits based on competitive recent Speed Figures with an average of 68. TF SHES JESS DASHIN - She should have a strong performance versus this less demanding lot. Ought to be given consideration in this event if only for the competitive speed rating earned in the last affair. DE BELL TRAIN - Must be given a shot - I like the figures from the last race. Is a strong contender based on numbers recorded lately under today's conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #1 - Post: 5:45pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#2 CAPPETTA (ML=4/1)
#1 GOTTA HAVE HEART (ML=6/1)
#5 BELLS RUN (ML=6/1)

CAPPETTA - I really like that most recent contest on May 22nd at Penn National where he finished second. This gelding should be at the peak of fitness, this far into his form cycle. GOTTA HAVE HEART - Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a nice effort on May 22nd. BELLS RUN - This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. Is ranked number one in earnings per start. A strong effort in this race can augment that bankroll.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KAZ CREED (ML=3/1), #4 WILD NUGGET (ML=7/2), #7 SHARP RED EAGLE (ML=9/2),

KAZ CREED - Tough to play this horse in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint contest before you invest in him in a race of 6 furlongs. I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. WILD NUGGET - That was merely not a very good showing in the last affair. If today's affair shapes up right, all the front runners will force a severe duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners. SHARP RED EAGLE - Tough to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 CAPPETTA on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 75

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SPARKLING RUBY 5/2
# 4 PROTECTTHEWITNESS 9/2
# 1 BOURBON BLAST 10/1

SPARKLING RUBY looks to be a very good contender. Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved speedily to the lead recently. Could beat this field given the 71 speed fig posted in her last outing. She has put up solid figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. PROTECTTHEWITNESS - Has been racing solidly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Overall the speed figs of this horse look competitive in this contest. BOURBON BLAST - Displays solid speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#1 SOMNIUM (ML=9/2)
#4 CODE NAME WILLOW (ML=10/1)

SOMNIUM - Merryman brings her right back. I propose you stick with this live filly. Based on her last TrackMaster turf number alone, I'm going to play this entrant. This filly's last speed rating is good enough to triumph here, I'll invest in her right back today. Lasix can take some getting used to, especially for a filly. They usually hit stride the second time using it, like we have with this horse. This animal is tops in earnings per start (EPS). She looks solid in today's race. CODE NAME WILLOW - I'm expecting this fine animal to run a good one this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 IZZY SWEET GIRL (IRE) (ML=7/2), #6 JERSEY JOYCE (ML=5/1), #10 MO HYPE (ML=5/1),

IZZY SWEET GIRL (IRE) - This filly hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance events. Not easy to play her in this contest. I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. JERSEY JOYCE - Should have at least finished in the money in the last two months in a sprint event to be worth a shot at short odds in a sprint. MO HYPE - This horse just hasn't looked sharp of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 SOMNIUM is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Wednesday 6/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 6/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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