Thursday 6/12/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 6/12/25

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June 12, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Thursday, June 12 2024
Santa Anita Park

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Our Bucky Charm
Backups: 4-Agency.

Forecast: Our Bucky Charm was very well meant at 12-1 and actually ran a winning race in defeat when second over this course and distance at this level last month. The figure came up extremely strong (a career top), so if he doesn’t go backwards the M. Puype-trained son of Munning should be hard to beat from his comfortable outside draw.


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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: A
Main Ticket: 1-Himika
Backups: none.

Forecast: Himika really caught the eye when breezing :09 4/5 at the OBS April Sale and in fact may very well have been the most impressive filly in the entire auction. The daughter of Curlin has never been let run since arriving in California yet has recorded a couple of quick times, including a :46 4/5 gate drill (best of a team) in which she could have gone considerably faster if turned loose. A top class athlete and exquisite mover, she has all the makings of the next superstar juvenile filly from the B. Baffert barn.


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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Dontgetfooledagain; 3-Grey Area.
Backups: none.

Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a bottom rung maiden $8,000 claiming miler for older horses. Dontgetfooledagain only has had three outings, so he probably has more room to improve than the others. Third in a similar affair over this track and distance last month, the C. Lewis-trained gelding lands the good rail and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Grey Area stretches out for the first time after nine sprints, and if he’s ever going to handle two turns its likely to be in his first try. He has some back numbers that make him a solid fit at this level.


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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Sareeha (Ire)
Backups: 6-Empress Ellie.

Forecast: Sareeha was a tad disappointing in a tougher first level allowance event over this course and distance last month, but this starter’s allowance affair is an easier assignment, so we expect the veteran mare to regain her winning form, but at a short price. She’s most effective when taken back early, gaining cover, and then being produced at the quarter pole.


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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Mirahmadi; 3-Ultimate Gamble.
Backups: 1-Momad.

Forecast: Mirahmadi wants to be the controlling speed and should be able to gain his favorite type of trip in this competitive second level allowance main miler. He was out of his element last time out but isn’t today. Ultimate Gamble was given a run in his recent sprint comeback and should get serious today. The M. Glatt-trained son of Medaglia d’Oro likely will inherit a pace prompting trip and have every chance from there.


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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Disposition
Backups: 6-Arya’s Ride.

Forecast: Disposition flopped badly as the favorite in a maiden $50 000 sprint at Del Mar last summer, and then to add insult to injury was a voided claim and had to be turned out. She returns for maiden $20,000 with a solid series of workouts at San Luid Rey Downs that should have her fit and ready, and with numbers from last year that would bury this group the daughter of Palace Malice almost certainly will be a very short price favorite for the M. McCarthy barn.


__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Cornelia Fort
Backups: 2-Super Ellie.

Forecast: Cornelia Fort remains protected in her second start following a $20,000 claim after being overmatched in a state-bred stakes and looks pretty solid in this restricted allowance turf miler for Northern California-based fillies and mares. She’s a strong fit on numbers and projects to settle in the second flight and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on.


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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Darlin Tami ; 6-Grievous Angel; 7-Honey Jo.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Darlin Tami returns to the main track and ran quite well over this surface two races back when a sharp runner-up (well clear of the rest) in a similar maiden special weight dash for state-bred fillies and mares. A decent filly can beat her, but there may not be one in here. Grievous Angel has produced some solid times in workouts at Los Alamitos so she may be able to run some. She’s bred for speed and is a “must use.” Honey Jo looks fairly quick in the morning, hasn’t yet been asked to show her best stuff, and should be a live item, especially with J. Hernandez taking the call.


__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Crazy Cavalier
Backups: none.

Forecast: Crazy Cavalier has little to beat in this maiden $50,000 nine furlong grass miler and is listed at 4/5 on the morning line despite already having had 10 chances, though he actually did cross the wire first once but was taken down. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding is guaranteed a ground saving trip from his rail draw and has hit the board in six of his last seven chances. Hard to see him messing this up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Santa Anita - Race #2

#2 Glassheart	A couple of Bafferts drawn in and outside of her should keep the price somewhat fair despite a really encouraging debut run. Always a big chance one of the Bafferts will be a freak, but I'll take this established form at hopefully at OK price.
#1 Himika	As noted, she'll go for a super dangerous barn with this kind, and the barn's go-to lands here. Get a look on the tote and track, but I expect that she's going to fire.
#3 Bottle of Rouge	She looks like she might be the 'other' Baffert -- capable on paper in a small group.
Race Summary	Glassheart has some appeal while going second time out, and that debut run looks like something she can build on. Enough to like into the teeth of a dangerous Baffert barn.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#6 Grievous Angel	Take a look at her ahead of this, but I think she might be the right face to land this one out of the box. She's got a forward and reliable enough looking worktab.
#2 They Are For Sale	Start number four of a career that began more than two years ago, so there are obviously some issues here, but they bring her back again with at least a competitive two-back running line on her page...from 2023. Maybe.
#4 Spiritual Thought	Riser earned this shot with tougher after that decent debut run, but she's going to need a solid step forward at second asking to land this while facing better. Not impossible.
Race Summary	Grievous Angel looks interesting enough on debut in a race where I just have a lot of questions as I bounce around the rest. Rail runner might have a little upside on the move to the main, too.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#8 Ben Milam	Giving another debuter a look to close out the day, so as always take a look at him ahead of this. Pedigree says the trip should be fine, and there are not many to be afraid of in here on paper.
#10 Ghost Coast	He's dangerous, but he's also really short on excuses right now and has had more than his share of chances. He can win, but you won't find me here at anything like 8/5.
#4 Smiling Capote	Think there is some room to come forward after the sprint debut run, but it's still just a guess on the class drop after showing little there.
Race Summary	Ben Milam debuts in a race where I don't feel great about the likely favorite finally punching home, and a fresh face may be the right way to go.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 BAYOU BLITZ (9-5) –	Led and held second as two-time favorite, graduation day is near.
#2 WYOMING CLASS (15-1) &ndash	'‘Late energy’ in sprint when last seen, solid work tab, bred for distance.
#6 MILITARY ROAD (6-5) –	Heavily bet, 7-for-7 in money, returns off 9-month layoff as a gelding.
Race Summary	BAYOU BLITZ raced up close and finished second in both route races wearing blinkers. He ‘put away the other speed’ but couldn’t contain the class-rising winner at Oaklawn Park two back, then earned his top speed figure but settled for second in a turf-to-dirt test at Delaware. Bet to win and place and play 3-2 and 3-6 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#4 MORE ACCELERATION (3-1) &nd	Drops into ideal spot in her third start, today’s Best Bet.
#1 LYRIC STREET (4-1) –	Rallied in grassy debut, tired as follow-up fave, gets Paco with the rail.
#6 PADRINO’S GOLD (15-1)	Stretches out for new barn after well-bet debut, gets in light.
Race Summary	MORE ACCELERATION, jostled at the break in a 13-horse MSW route race, stalked the wire-to-wire winner from between rivals but faded in the stretch. She should get ample pace flow to launch a contending rally on the class drop. Bet to win and place and play 4-1 and 4-6 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#6 PRESSURE (8-5) –	Kept good company out of town, starts fresh, good fit on best for new barn.
#2 MAGIC SPIN (9-5) –	Nine wins at 6F, tries to upstage series of recent in-the-money finishes.
#1 MAJESTIC TIGER (3-1) &ndash	Second to repeater two back, rallied near outer rail in latest.
Race Summary	PRESSURE tries to recapture his form from last year as he starts fresh for a new barn. He dropped back on the turn but re-rallied some behind a runaway winner two starts back as a starter allowance favorite at Oaklawn. Bet to win and place and play 6-1 and 6-2 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.20 Superfecta
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $16,600 • Post: 3:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * HURRY ON OUT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ROUNDBALL ROCK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AUGER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LOMACHENKO: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). ROYAL DRAGOON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
7	HURRY ON OUT	9/2	9/2
5	ROUNDBALL ROCK	12/1	7/1
6	AUGER	2/1	8/1
3	LOMACHENKO	3/1	9/1
2	ROYAL DRAGOON	4/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	HURRY ON OUT	7	9/2	Stalker	87	78	68.4	78.2	73.2
3	LOMACHENKO	3	3/1	Stalker	84	79	61.4	73.8	65.3
5	ROUNDBALL ROCK	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	84	69.8	75.4	67.9
4	STAR ENTERTAINER	4	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	73	51.4	64.8	55.8
6	AUGER	6	2/1	Trailer	89	81	60.7	64.6	60.1
2	ROYAL DRAGOON	2	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	72	40.2	75.6	68.1
1	FOOD FOODIE	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	71	39.4	68.4	55.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town
PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 3	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 3-4) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Pick 6 (Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 49 • Purse: $13,700 • Post: 7:57P
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MIST OVER CORK is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MIST OVER CORK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HEART OF GOLD: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FUNKLE: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	MIST OVER CORK	7/2	7/2
5	HEART OF GOLD	9/5	6/1
3	FUNKLE	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MIST OVER CORK	2	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	58	55	58.6	37.4	29.4
3	FUNKLE	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	52	46	53.4	44.2	40.7
4	YAREAKH	4	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	50	43	48.0	42.8	30.3
5	HEART OF GOLD	5	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	58	49	46.9	41.8	38.3
7	CANDY MAN MARTIN	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	44	41	40.6	39.0	29.0
8	MUSICAL ENTOURAGE	8	8/1	Trailer	54	45	29.6	40.6	31.6
9	NO CONVERSATION	9	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	35.4	39.0	25.0
1	CAPO TOO	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	20.7	16.6	2.1
6	FAPPIANO HALO	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	42	20.2	36.6	23.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 92

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 LOVE MAMI LOVE 5/2
# 3 MORE THAN GLORY 3/1
# 1 FLORIBUNDA 6/1

I think LOVE MAMI LOVE is a solid choice. Displays reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. Win percentage one of the most respectable in this group. Will almost certainly go to the lead and could never look back. MORE THAN GLORY - With Morelos in the saddle guiding her, this mare will almost certainly be able to break out sharply for this race. Ought to be considered for this race if only for the very good Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last contest. FLORIBUNDA - Solid profits have been scored by players using this jockey and trainer twosome recently. Could beat this group given the 89 Equibase speed fig earned in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belmont at the Big A - Race #8 - Post: 4:36pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#11 PROUD MARY (ML=8/1)
#5 CYNANE (ML=3/1)
#1 MAC TO MOORE (ML=12/1)
#8 DARE TO BREEZE (ML=5/2)
#12 QUIET CONFIDENCE (ML=10/1)


PROUD MARY - Maragh and Hennig perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +29 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. In the last race on the grass, this horse was great. Anything close today, and this one should win. Average Equibase class figure is tops in this group. I think that is a big advantage for a race on the turf. CYNANE - Cox has a very strong win pct in grass sprints. This filly should be in shape and ready to win. When Franco and Cox are put together on horses the win percentage has been tremendous at 35. Took a drop in class last out, running against the same type today. MAC TO MOORE - Lots of positive 'vibes' associated with this pony and her connections. DARE TO BREEZE - Casse is strong in grass sprints. This horse should have no allowances if she doesn't win. This filly has plenty of ability on the grass. Could be long gone by the time they hit the top of the lane. This horse collects a lot of money per start. Tops in this affair. QUIET CONFIDENCE - This is this filly's first try on the grass. Ran well finishing third on March 9th. The track was slow that day, so I think this horse will take to the turf. Look at this pattern of improvement. 59/69/72 are the last three speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #13 I'M KIDDING (ML=9/2), #2 DANGHERECOMESSHANG (IRE) (ML=6/1),

I'M KIDDING - Finished 12th last time. Would have to advance to finish in the money today. Pace is so significant, and this front-runner is going to have a speed battle on her hands. Common speed figure last out at Belmont at the Big A at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will improve too much today. DANGHERECOMESSHANG (IRE) - Nice race on May 16th at Belmont at the Big A, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried. Awfully tough to wager on any racer that just won a Maiden Claimer, then steps up to face winners.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CYNANE - Racing back for the first time since being claimed on Apr 11th. Cox's win percent is solid in these cases (+38), so I'd take a good look at this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#11 PROUD MARY is going to be the play if we are getting 9/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[1,5,11] with [1,5,8,11,12] with [1,5,8,11,12] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Delaware Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:35pm - SO - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#10 GENGHIS (ML=15/1)
#7 BY THE SEY SHORE (ML=9/2)
#12 JUST SAY WHEN (ML=8/1)
#9 PROM KNIGHT (ML=20/1)
#6 FADETHENOISE (ML=5/1)


GENGHIS - That recent bullet 47.0 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top race today. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fourth). Should improve in this event, with some respectable odds. Ramos is reunited today with this animal after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past. BY THE SEY SHORE - True, this pony is coming off a layoff, but this gelding runs well fresh. This animal obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has registered the highest speed fig on the turf at the distance-surface. Last ran at Laurel and finished fourth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the finish line, within 5 of the winner. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This thoroughbred has the highest average class in the entire bunch. JUST SAY WHEN - This trainer brings horses to the grass conditioned to win, winning over 20 percent of the time under similar conditions. This gelding is certainly on the improve with speed ratings of 83, 87, 91 last 3 out. PROM KNIGHT - I have to believe Nambo is making a good move here. This gelding can only be aided by the shorter distance. This is this gelding's first try on the grass. Ran well finishing third on February 21st. The track was slow that day, so I think this animal will take to the turf. Look for this gelding to show better in this event. Last affair at Delaware Park finishing fourth on a track listed as good is no indication of his true ability. FADETHENOISE - A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the past performances, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different ovals. This horse coming off a sharp performance in the last month or so is a solid contender in my book. This jock and handler's horses have been generating a lucrative return on investment.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 QUICK TEMPO (ML=7/2), #8 BOSS IS A PAL (ML=6/1),

QUICK TEMPO - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple of months in a sprint event to be worth the risk at low odds in a sprint. BOSS IS A PAL - This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - JUST SAY WHEN - Contrary to popular belief, some horses run much better off a rather long layoff. This one has been off 96 days, and in similar circumstances in the past, has run nicely.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #10 GENGHIS to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,10,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[7,10,12] with [6,7,9,10,12] with [6,7,9,10,12] Total Cost: $36
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,10] with [7,10,12] with [6,7,9,10,12] with [6,7,9,10,12] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 CRUZIN ANNA 5/2
# 4 HONEY FUN 7/2
# 5 KASHMIR WITCH 5/1

CRUZIN ANNA looks very good to best this field. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Chiappe will probably have this filly in excellent position to win the contest. Earned a sound Equibase Speed Fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. Very strong pick to take this race going in a dirt sprint. HONEY FUN - Has to be given a chance versus this group displaying decent figs lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 61 under similar conditions. She looks quite good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. KASHMIR WITCH - A solid 78 avg Equibase class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge against this group. Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this competition.