Service Plays Thursday 6/12/25

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Smart money sports

Us open 1st round head to head
2U Jordan Speith -145 over Koepka

2U Brewers ML


2U Florida Panthers ML

[2trikpony]

Your daily capper

All 1 unit
Detroit -1
St. Louis ML
Edmonton under 6.5

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5 Star
Golden
Baltimore +2.5 Alternate

Bonus bet
Florida Panthers ML

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August Young

MLB

4u NYY -145

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JR ODonnell | CFL - Thursday,

3* 1st half (+130) 1ST 1/2 ONLY WINNIPEG BOMBERS PLUS 130

3* WIN +3.5

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kaiser
4%
cubs rl

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ricky tran
tigers

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feist
gow
cardinals

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Icy Sports

Will Warren (*NYY)over 15.5 outs -132

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PORT PORT SPORTS
THURSDAY JUNE 12, 2025 —

(NHL)

OVER 6.5 EDMONTON OILERS @ FLORIDA PANTHERS (+110) AND
EDMONTON OILERS (+125)
Sure last game was a blowout win and completely dominated by the Panthers for the entire night, and we could see this play going the exact opposite and the Panthers winning a low-scoring affair tonight, but honestly have to lay with the dog here and we believe Edmonton should have enough scoring to tie this one back up at 2-2 here in Florida tonight. Despite the narrative of tight-checking playoff hockey, this series has been surprisingly high-scoring. The scores so far are 4-3 (Oilers win), 5-4 (Panthers win in 2OT), and 6-1 (Panthers win). That's a total of 19 goals in three games, an average of 6.33 goals per game. The NHL.com preview notes that the Panthers and Oilers have an opportunity to become the third set of teams in NHL history, and first since 1980, to combine to score at least seven goals in the first four games of a Stanley Cup Final. This series has shown a tendency for offensive outbursts. The Oilers are stacked with offensive firepower, led by Connor McDavid (31 points in 19 playoff games, 6 G, 25 A) and Leon Draisaitl (29 points, 10 G, 19 A). Even after being largely shut down in Game 3, it's highly improbable that these two superstars will be held off the scoresheet again. They lead the entire playoffs in points. The Panthers demonstrated their offensive depth in Game 3, with six different players scoring. They have players like Sam Bennett (14 high-danger goals), Carter Verhaeghe (7 G, 12 A), and Sam Reinhart (5 G, 10 A) contributing significantly. Skinner has shown flashes of brilliance but also periods of vulnerability throughout the playoffs. He was pulled in Game 3 after allowing 5 goals on 23 shots. While he has bounced back well from previous poor outings, his inconsistency can lead to higher-scoring games. The 6-1 loss in Game 3 will likely have him under immense pressure, which can sometimes lead to an early goal or two if he isn't absolutely dialed in. Bobrovsky has been outstanding for the Panthers, especially with a .957 save percentage at 5-on-5 in this series. However, he did give up 4 goals in Game 2. While he's a Vezina-caliber goalie, no goalie is impenetrable. The Oilers' shot volume (they generated 60.64 attempts and 32.96 shots per 60 minutes in the series) will continue to test him. The sheer volume of high-quality chances the Oilers generate means some are bound to get through. Skate with the EDMONTON OILERS and the OVER in Game 4.....

(MLB)

OVER 7.5 PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ CHICAGO CUBS (+105)
This one just seems like there will be runs involved and we are jumping on it, especially after seeing the total already raised up for the 7 it initially opened at. The OVER the total is on a 22-8-1 (73.3%, +13.13 units) run in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September 2022. This trend has an outstanding ROI of 43.8%. This is not a small sample size. A 73.3% hit rate over 31 games between these specific teams dating back almost three full seasons is incredibly strong. While Heaney's surface ERA of 3.24 looks good, his underlying metrics paint a concerning picture. He has a 4.70 xERA (expected ERA), which ranks in the 20th percentile. This indicates he's been quite lucky and is due for significant regression. His strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB%) is a career-worst 9.4%, and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in his last 8 starts is 5.38, with an xFIP of 5.14. He's allowing a 46.8% Hard Hit% and 10.1% Barrel% over this span. Heaney is getting hit hard, walking batters, and not missing bats at a high rate. His low ERA is unsustainable, and a major offensive outburst against him is likely coming. The Cubs, with their strong offense, are well-positioned to expose this. The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking third in wRC+ and fourth in OPS. They are a strong hitting team that capitalizes on mistakes. Taillon has been on a four-game winning streak and has a strong 2.38 ERA over his last 5 starts. He's generally reliable. However, the Pirates did tag Taillon for four runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season. This is a bet on a powerful, long-standing historical dynamic and a clear pitching mismatch. Roll with the OVER in tonight's meeting....

OVER 9 NEW YORK YANKEES @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (-110)
The Yankees offense has been clicking on a different cylinder as of late and we fully expect that same result again here tonight in KC. For the Yankees, Warren is making his 14th start of the season and has a concerning 5.34 ERA over 57.1 innings. Critically, he's allowed 11 runs in his last 6.2 innings across two starts, indicating he's in poor recent form. He's looking for only his second quality start of the season, suggesting inconsistency and a tendency for shorter outings that will expose the bullpen. On the flip side for the Royals, although Lugo's ERA of 3.46 appears decent, his underlying metrics paint a more concerning picture for run prevention. He ranks in just the 13th percentile in expected ERA (5.22) and is in the 16th percentile or worse in whiff percentage, expected batting average against, average exit velocity against, and hard-hit percentage. These advanced stats suggest that hitters are making quality contact against him and his ERA could easily regress upwards. Both starters present clear avenues for runs. Warren is struggling significantly and has shown a propensity to get hit hard and exit early, while Lugo's advanced metrics suggest he's due for negative regression, making him susceptible to a strong lineup. The current total is set at 9 runs. When combining the struggling Yankees starter, the Royals starter's underlying metrics, two offenses capable of putting up runs (especially the Yankees' league-leading power), and a ballpark that favors runs (particularly non-HR hits), the threshold of 9 runs appears very attainable, if not easily surpassed. The Yankees' strong offense, combined with Warren's recent blow-ups, suggests they could account for a significant portion of the total on their own. Take the OVER in Kansas City....

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (+120)
St. Louis is currently trending downward and this presents itself as a good spot to jump on a nice priced little home underdog in the Brew Crew. The Brewers are calling up top pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski for this start. Misiorowski is known for his 103 mph fastball and dominant stuff. While making an MLB debut is always a risk, often top prospects come in with a high level of excitement and can perform exceptionally well in their first outing. The Brewers' decision to call him up for a crucial divisional game suggests high confidence in his immediate impact. Misiorowski brings an element of the unknown for Cardinals hitters, coupled with elite velocity. This can lead to swings and misses and suppressed offense, especially early in the game. While Gray's 7-1 record and 3.35 ERA look impressive on the surface, his underlying metrics suggest he's been quite fortunate this season. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.90 and his xFIP is 3.84, both significantly higher than his ERA. His walk rate (BB%) is a concerning 9.7%, which ranks poorly in the league (24.5% K% is good, but 9.7% BB% is high for an ace). His last outing (June 6th vs Dodgers) was exceptional (6.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H), which is a tough act to follow and suggests he's due for regression. Gray is prone to walks, and his underlying numbers indicate he's due to give up more runs than his ERA suggests. The Brewers' patient approach (3.61 BB/G, 8th in MLB) could exploit his walks and put runners on base, leading to scoring opportunities. The Milwaukee Brewers boast a solid home record of 20-14 (.588 winning percentage) at American Family Field this season. They perform well in front of their home crowd. The Cardinals, conversely, have a road record of 14-18 (.438 winning percentage), indicating they are less effective away from Busch Stadium. The Brewers' ability to manufacture runs with speed and exploit walks will be crucial against Gray. They don't necessarily need to hit a lot of home runs (American Family Field is a hitter-friendly park for HRs, but still, small ball can work) to score against him, which plays into their strengths. Run with the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as the home dog....



Best of luck to all tonight!! Let’s get that money!!