Wednesday 6/25/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:02 AM

Johny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | June 25, 2025

June 24, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

The end of the Hong Kong season is approaching with only seven race days left until the break, but with a long season ending also comes a growing set of recent data to refine and improve my projections and Prime Burke Ratings. We’re back in the city at Happy Valley for some mid-week action, and I’m excited to debut some updates to the Ratings that I hope will give us a more complete picture of our runners and put a little cash back in our pockets.

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – June 25

Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses wi\th a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 2 | 1200M | Class 4

Win – 3 HEROIC MASTER
Exacta – 3 w/ 1,11

Notes: Putting my new pace figures to the test early, 3 HEROIC MASTER (6/1 ML) appears to have a huge advantage in the Late Pace figures and happens to top the overall Prime Burke Ratings in this Class 4 field. He dropped down from Class 3 two races back going five furlongs, and the extra furlong plus class relief should line up for this gelding to get his first win of the season. I’m expecting him to be pretty far off the pace early and start to make his move coming around the final turn. Ahead of him should be some combination of 11 BLING BLING GENIUS (33/1 ML), 1 CHARMING BABE (21/1 ML), and 8 FLYING WROTE (21/1 ML). Of the front runners, 1 CHARMING BABE and 11 BLING BLING GENIUS rate the highest in the Prime Burke Ratings and I’ll play them underneath in the Exacta.

Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4

Win/Place – 5 WRITTEN CASA
Quinella – 1 w/ 5,9

Notes: Two horses stand out in the Prime Burke Ratings, 5 WRITTEN CASA (21/1 ML) and 1 FUN ELITE (7/2 ML). Top choice, 5 WRITTEN CASA, rates far better than his Morning Line suggests. He dropped down to Class 4 with Zac Purton aboard and ran an underwhelming race at 1 1/16 miles. He’s cutting back to six furlongs here, and I think his class experience is being overlooked in addition to his raw Prime Burke Ratings. At the Morning Line price, I love this play across the board and will be combining him with two other standouts to complete a Quinella keyed to the 1 FUN ELITE who should be at a deservingly short price.

Race 5 | 1000M | Class 3

Win – 1 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS
Exacta – 1 w/ 2

Notes: Our top choice in this Class 3 bout is five-year-old gelding 1 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS (7/1 ML), who is looking for his first win of the season. Even with the not-so-great recent form finding the Winner’s Circle, the Prime Burke Ratings narrowly put this runner at the top of the field. What I’m more intrigued by is his potential trip. He won’t be on the lead, the first call accolades should go to 9 PARENTS’ LOVE (2/1 ML), but his mid-race and late pace are outstanding combined with a solid early pace rating. The field will be firing into a long straightaway before hitting the only turn in the race, and his position in the tenth post should play nicely with his pressing style. If our front-runner gets challenged and fades like I expect him to, the final push should open up and with it a spot in line to cash. To round out the Exacta, 2 SEASONS WIT (4/1 ML) should find some room on the rail if he can navigate traffic and get up for a top two spot.

Race 7 | 1650M | Class 4

Win – 4 CAN’T GO WONG

Notes: I feel like I’ve been chasing this horse for the entire meet, but he rates so well I can’t help but look twice at this seven-year-old gelding whenever he’s drawn into a race. This time around, he’s cutting back to 1 1/16 miles and tops the field in the Prime Burke Ratings. His late race ability has been his biggest concern, and I’m hoping the cut in distance finally gets him home at a nice 13/1 Morning Line. I’m going to play it simple and small since this gelding has burned me before, but if we finally get home, it should be for a day-changing score.

Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3

Exacta – 3 w/ 7,5

Notes: 3 AESTHETICISM (5/2 ML) looks like a clear standout for Pierre Ng, whose barn isn’t exactly on fire as of late. I expect the pace to be fair with a possible early bolt from 4 OUTGATE (52/1 ML), and our top choice should be set up for
an easy close around a moderately paced field. Alongside him down the stretch, I like 7 HARMONY GALAXY (11/1 ML) and 5 HAMERON (13/1 ML) to eat up a few spots late and hopefully find that second spot behind our short-priced top choice.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3

Exacta – 2,3 w/ 2,3,5,9

Notes: The finale on Wednesday’s card appears to be wide open. A six-furlong bout in the Class 3 division features a few big prices that I think are capable of huge runs and huge payouts. 2 HAPPY FAT CAT (13/1 ML) intrigues me the most with a pace setup that should help him greatly. 7 DRAGON FOUR SEAS (15/2 ML) will be placed forward and potentially in a pace battle with 12 EVERSTAR (11/2 ML). If those two get into a duel, I think this race falls apart completely. The best combination of pressing style and finishing ability is in the hands of Matthew Poon aboard 2 HAPPYF AT CAT. Also, in the mix in the case of a mess up front are 3 POWER KOEPP (7/1 ML), 5 KYRUS DRAGON (11/1 ML) and 9 EASON (99/1 ML). Let’s make sure they’re all on our ticket and hope we see a 99/1 going bombs away to close out the card.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:02 AM

Al Cimaglia:

June 25, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Race 5 (2:05 PM EST)

4-Uncle Brudie (5-1)-
5-Fredericktown Lad (2-1)-

Race 6 (2:25 PM EST)

1-
2-
7-
10-

Race 7 (2:45 PM EST)

4-Gimpanzee Dancer (5/2)-
5-Jet Wings (7/2)-

Race 8 (3:05 PM EST)

2-

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#5 Concrete Jack	He has quit badly in both career starts, but he looks like he might be quick enough to establish an honest enough lead that could help him get a bit braver if he doesn't take any serious heat early.
#7 Wetlands Willy	Feel like he landed in a pretty comfy spot on debut -- won't have to be a star to land this for a capable team.
#1 Double Up Larry	He raced evenly near the tail throughout his debut, but there is some reasonable room to come forward with that race under his belt. Not too excited about him, but he wouldn't be a total shock.
Race Summary	Concrete Jack has a little bit of pace that could find him up top early, and that may help him find something more in the tank today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Kotylos	All in for me here -- he goes second out for the meet here with some races last season that would keep him in the frame. Think the price will be right again, and his better stuff would do.
#4 John Dutton	No real arguments from me here other than the likely price -- he's got sharp pace and rides a two-race winning streak. Mild worry the guy outside of him is going to be a thorn in his side.
#5 Tarsus Warrior	He just couldn't see it out last time around, but he figures to be a bit tighter this time around and could prompt the pace to a score.
Race Summary	Kotylos can be tough at a nice number here. I think his last was a touch better than it looks, and he does his best work here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#9 Bucchini	Worried that the price will get a bit short here, but I think she's going to be a handful in her local debut. She gets a likely honest pace to chase with some unreliable forward players drawn inside.
#7 Fillyrules	She went a bit flat late in the debut run, but she's not too far off what it might take to land this if she brings some reasonable upside today.
#3 Itza Kitty	No clue what to do here -- she has shown a little bit of route pace before stopping badly in her first two starts, but those both came with much better than she's going to find here. I'm curious, but not that interested in backing it up.
Race Summary	Bucchini seems tough to get past in here. She should find a great spot tracking some pace that figures to come back to her, and the style of her last try should fit this race flow perfectly.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:19 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #1

#2 FUN TO RUN (8-1)	Good value play in evenly-matched field, changes rider.
#3 AMY Z (4-1)	Six-figure CD earner held safe for popular 6-1/2F win, new barn excels with claims.
#1 JUST AN OPINION (2-1)	Beaten fave in ‘key’ race after comeback allowance victory.
Race Summary	FUN TO RUN took money on the class rise off a runaway victory and chased the pace ‘while improving mildly’ against the top two finishers who are a combined 6-for-19 with $305k in earnings. She cuts back to a short sprint as one of two entrants with a win at Churchill Downs and is worth a win and place bet at 8-1 on the morning line. Also play 2-5 and 3-5 daily doubles.

Churchill Downs - Race #2

#5 COCKTAILSNKRINGLE (7-2)	Gets class relief, adds blinkers, met sharp rival in longer route race.
#6 GUARDIAN (3-1)	$575k purchase has speed, drop in for $20k in first long-distance test.
#7 CLOCKING (15-1)	Sire’s progeny average win distance is 7-1/2F and dam won in her debut.
Race Summary	In a field of unproven milers, COCKTAILSNKRINGLE at least showed a pulse at 1-1/8 miles against Skate Away, who returned with a wire-to-wire win in a $125k optional claiming route. He was a troubled favorite off that effort and adds blinkers today. Bet to win and place.

Churchill Downs - Race #6

#4 AMELIA’S ECHO (5-1)	Up for second off layoff, steps up for barn in midst of 5-for-11 run with claims.
#11 MY KENTUCKY LILY (10-1)	Like the recent :48-2/5 gate move, like the price, don’t like the post.
#2 EMPLOYEEOFTHEMONTH (4-1)	Second in debut despite not changing leads, gets in light again.
Race Summary	AMELIA’S ECHO ran to her workouts off a nine-month layoff in her first start outside California. She took inside aim at the 12-1 winner at the sixteenth pole but settled for second best. Bet to win and place and play 4-2 and 4-11 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 2	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (2 - 5) / Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 1:07P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SUPREME MIND: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. UTILITY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KING SWANSBORO: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	SUPREME MIND	4/1	3/1
6	UTILITY	7/2	6/1
4	KING SWANSBORO	5/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SUPREME MIND	1	4/1	Front-runner	70	73	56.4	56.4	49.9
6	UTILITY	6	7/2	Front-runner	71	65	50.6	46.0	42.5
3	MARCHIN INTO APRIL	3	5/1	Trailer	69	58	32.8	46.2	34.2
7	MCKIRGAN	7	9/2	Trailer	61	52	26.4	53.6	47.6
4	KING SWANSBORO	4	5/1	Trailer	73	58	14.6	48.2	41.7
5	BADBADBOBBY	5	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	66	58	61.8	55.0	47.5
2	TRAVEL GUIDE	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	65	61	50.4	44.6	34.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs
PURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 3	Win/ Place/ Show/ Daily Double/ Exactor/ Triactor/ Superfecta/ Pick 3(3-4-5) Pick 5(3-4-5-6-7)
Maiden • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 55 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 2:39P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * LOOK TWICE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LOUIE B GONE: Quarter horse h as the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SUGE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rat ing at the distance/surface. HUCKLEBERRIE FINN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	LOOK TWICE	3/1	4/1
1	LOUIE B GONE	5/1	6/1
2	SUGE	4/1	8/1
3	HUCKLEBERRIE FINN	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LOUIE B GONE	1	5/1	Average/Trouble-prone	58	53	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	SUGE	2	4/1	Average	56	53	5.2	0.0	0.0
3	HUCKLEBERRIE FINN	3	10/1	Average/Trouble-prone	59	48	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	RUSHIN FOR GLORY	5	15/1	Average	61	44	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	LOOK TWICE	6	3/1	Slow	65	58	6.7	0.0	0.0
7	CARAWAYS SUGAR JOE	7	9/2	Slow	58	44	7.8	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: EYE SPY MY (7/1) [Jockey: Bell Brian - Trainer: Kennedy Richard W].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,100 Class Rating: 53

Rating:

#3 FINISTERE (ML=5/1)
#5 EILEEN'S DESPERADO (ML=9/2)

FINISTERE - This gelding is in nice condition, having run a nice race on Jun 11th, finishing second. Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished runner up easily ahead of the show horse in his last race. Chavez was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a top effort today. EILEEN'S DESPERADO - When Salazarbecerra and Rettele join forces on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +40. I like the fact that this first timer's recent works have been over this track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 UNION SWAG (ML=5/2), #1 MACHO SOLO (ML=7/2), #7 ISLAND BOSS (ML=6/1),

UNION SWAG - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a sprint race to be worth it at nominal odds in a sprint. Awfully difficult to play this less than sharp equine when he hasn't been showing any gumption lately. MACHO SOLO - Can't bet on this runner in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race recently. Hard to take this steed at these odds after the finish position (sixth) in the last affair. You have to be concerned that this less than sharp equine added wraps last time around the track. ISLAND BOSS - Difficult to bet on this racer this time out. Make him show you something in a short distance event before you bet on him in a race of 6 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 FINISTERE on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $23500 Class Rating: 71

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MARDI GRAS TRAIN 6/1
# 8 SIX STREAKIN BLOOD 6/1
# 5 MR POT SCRAPER 10/1

MARDI GRAS TRAIN is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Is difficult not to examine based on speed figures which have been very good - 60 avg - of late. Earned a strong speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Looks strong for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figures in short races as of late. SIX STREAKIN BLOOD - Has respectable Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figs (53 average) at today's distance and surface recently. MR POT SCRAPER - Roberts has him trained well to break quickly out of the gate. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 77, has one of the top class advantages in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2024 - 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 25, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BOBBY'S GIFT 7/2
# 9 THE QUEENS JULES 5/2
# 8 LAST ROO 6/1

BOBBY'S GIFT is my choice. Handler has sharp win rate (22 percent) at this distance and surface. Pauly will most likely be able to get this horse to break out sharply in this contest. Had one of the best Speed Figures of this group in his last outing. THE QUEENS JULES - In this field, this one is at the top in earnings per start in dirt sprint races. The class rating of today's race is much lower than his last affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2025, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:14pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#10 BIG SALT LICK (ML=6/1)
#1 KENSINGTON COVE (ML=8/1)
#8 ACTIVITY (ML=10/1)

BIG SALT LICK - On board this horse on Jun 8th and Villarreal is right back in the irons this time. The jockey and trainer combination have a favorable return on investment when they join forces. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed rating, 68, is tops in this field. Trainer Andrade moves this horse down in the class scale to face much lower class horses. Look for a strong race in this race. KENSINGTON COVE - Rider hops up on board after getting to know the fine animal by riding last out. That's always a positive sign. This gelding is in first-rate physical condition right now. Finished third last time out and comes back rapidly. He has the highest earnings per race. Check out this horse. ACTIVITY - Note that although this colt finished runner-up in his last race, he was well clear of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +535.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GUARDIAN (ML=3/1), #5 COCKTAILSNKRINGLE (ML=7/2), #9 NICO'S DERBY RUN (ML=5/1),

GUARDIAN - This gelding finished outside the top 3 on November 1st and wasn't even close last out either. NICO'S DERBY RUN - I have some doubts when a horse has wraps added in the last race. Common speed figure in the last race at Churchill Downs at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #10 BIG SALT LICK to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	10 with [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Skip

Wednesday 6/25/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 6/25/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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