Sunday 6/29/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:39 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Churchill Downs - 6/29/25

June 29, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know”
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Churchill Downs

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

__________________________________________________ ________
Churchill Downs 6: Post: 3:18 ET
Win Play: 7-Password
Degree of Confidence: Strong
Underneath: 1-Spice Runner

Forecast: Password is a maiden after one start but shouldn’t be. Clearly best when second in a much troubled debut, the son of Uncle Mo overcame a disastrous start, a wide trip, and an extremely green performance when finishing fastest of all to be second, and with that bit of experience behind him, a much better draw, and an extra half furlong to work with the R. Brisset-trained colt should step forward big time. With F. Prat riding him back and at 7/2 on the morning line he’ll offer excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various exotics in this year’s edition of the Bashford Manor Stakes for juveniles.

__________________________________________________ ________
Churchill Downs Race: 8. Post: 4:23 ET
Win Play: 2-Judge Miller
Degree of Confidence: Very strong.
Underneath: none.

Forecast: Judge Miller, always most effective at a mile and especially so around one turn, returned off a long layoff and was highly impressive in winning a fast, productive allowance race at Santa Anita while probably not even totally cranked up. In the interim he has trained better than he ever has, so we’re expecting a career top performance from the M. Glatt-trained shipper in this year’s renewal of the Hanshin Stakes. With excellent tactical speed and am effective late turn of foot, the son of Curlin should be just where he wants to be when the pressure is turned on at the head of the lane. Let’s hope we can get close to his morning line of 6-1 on the tote.

__________________________________________________ ________
Churchill Downs 10: Post: 5:27 ET
Win Play: 2-Captain Cook (9/2)
Degree of Confidence: Strong.
Underneath: 10-Verifire.

Forecast: Captain Cook may have won at nine furlongs but we’re convinced he’s most comfortable around one turn and therefore expect the son of Practical Joke to regain his winning form in today’s Maxfield Stakes in this extended dash for sophomores. Beaten as the favorite in his last pair, most recently a close third in the 9F Peter Pan Stakes, the R. Dutrow-trained colt projects to settle into a cozy second flight position and then blast home from the quarter pole to the wire. Fast on numbers, she should outclass this field and looks quite attractive as a win play at anywhere near to his 9/2 morning line.

__________________________________________________ ________
Churchill Downs Race 12: Post: 5:58 ET
Win Play: 7-Merry Madison
Degree of Confidence: Good.
Underneath: 2-Toolatebabydoll (Fr).

Forecast: Merry Madison was given a very easy outing in her debut sprinting when winding up a distant fourth in a hot race (was never knocked about and was allowed to coast home) and today should be much more serious when stretching out and switching to grass for a barn that has solid stats with the second time starter angle. By City of Light from a two-turn stakes winning Vronsky mare, she should improve a ton under these conditions in a maiden race that clearly contains no world beaters. With hot riding J. Ortiz staying aboard, she presents an excellent win and rolling extic gamble at 5-1 on the morning line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:40 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 29, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

2-Greatest Ending (9/2)-Finished 1st in 2 straight but was Dq'd in last and now steps up. Does well getting on the engine and will look for that plan tonight. Should be on the point or in the pocket and can offer a square price.
5-Cocosdream A (5/2)-Left from post 4 in last, got the top and faded late to finish 2nd. Went off at 3/2 in last, will be a better price, and should be out and rolling. Set a lively pace last time and should be tough to tackle if is able to steal a quarter.
6-Rockntheroad (4-1)-Was bet down to 4/5 and broke stride at the start versus this kind on 6-16. Ronnie Wrenn will be steering this time, and he knows well. The Burke trainee should fit well with this crew.

Race 12 10:02 PM EDT)

4-Darbyshire (5-1)-Ships in from ScD off some so-so efforts but was facing better. Will look for an aggressive steer from AMac and has the gate speed to a good early seat.
5-Heavensdor Hanover (9-1)-Comes off an even effort and Justin Irvine is another who has good gate speed to use. With this post draw it wouldn't be a shock if left hard for the top and tried to go gate to wire.
9-Rose Run Zoom (9/5)-Program chalk steps up after an easy drop and pop win leaving from post 2. Aaron Merriman will need to work a trip but has been cashing checks versus Open company and will look for a big try in this spot.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

1-Lake Charles (3-1)-This will be the 3rd start after a sick scratch has been dull in the previous 2 races. Gets class relief, draws inside and this could be a prime wake-up spot. Did beat Open company in the spring and should be a main player if 100%.
3-Rock The Hill (5/2)-This 4-year-old has a win versus similar 2 back and came 2nd against Open company last time. Joe Chindano knows how to blast out and the plan will be to land on the point. Should be tough to collar if steals a quarter.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

1-Shell Yea (5/2)-Dropped and popped in last at 1/9 and now bumps up a few levels. Comes off the best effort this year and will look for the upswing to continue. Did beat this kind in December and could do it again here.
7-Jim Blue (12-1)-Will swing for a price and hope Kody Massey can have the veteran in position to win. Does have the gate speed to get a good early seat. With an aggressive drive and a smooth trip, the Kreiser trainee could win for the 5th time this year.

$1 Late Pick 4

2,5,6/4,5,9/1,3/1,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:40 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #1

#5 Dripping Springs	Think he's got a chance for a mild upset in this one while getting a pretty sweet spying trip in a race without a ton of serious early burn. He can track a couple pressers drawn inside of him.
#4 Frontier Marshal	He's probably quickest early in this small bunch and wouldn't be any surprise after a close run last time out. Price probably won't be much, but he's there today.
#3 Gunny Sack	He didn't run back to the turf debut on the main track last time out, but he's probably better than he showed that day on the dirt? Willing to give him another look, but I'm not sure the price is going to be appealing enough.
Race Summary	Dripping Springs has a long way to come against a couple of them who beat him last time out, but I like the trip he figures to get from the outside in this small group without a lot of pace.

Hawthorne - Race #3

#1 Harper Briana	It looks like there is only one horse to beat on paper, and this one turned in one of her better efforts in a long time last out. Turf is a question, but she could stay in the frame with this group at a price if she holds form and handles the new footing.
#3 Wednesday Addams	She tracked and faded in her debut run here earlier this month, and she's bred to be better than that, bringing what is still a pretty big Illinois pedigree/family line here, so I'm assuming there is some upside. Still, she's just a short-priced leap of faith -- in a bad race.
#7 Chela	She rallied very mildly in her debut and brings some upside with that race under her belt, but she's a lot like Wednesday Addams here...she's kind of a default logical player because everyone else is exposed already.
Race Summary	Harper Briana has had her share of chances, but she'll try the turf here today after a decent enough run last time out. The two second-timers are going to command a lot of cash, but they aren't heads and shoulders above the rest in this modest cast.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#1 Shake Up	The turf form is honest enough, and he's got some versatility in his running style that should give his rider some options out of the gate. Expecting him to be tough here.
#3 Wicked Surprise	He has a few excuses in his recent races, so there's a chance he finds his better form again today while getting back on the turf. Some of those runs from last summer would keep him in the picture.
#4 Temper Tantrum	He deserves to be the chalk and looks like the one to beat again, but I think the top choice has a little bit of appeal at a better number. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here except for maybe the price.
Race Summary	Shake Up managed a short two-turn turf trip at Canterbury last summer, and though I have a mild worry about him seeing out this longer trip, I think he gets a great run of things from the inside. Willing to take him as something like the second choice.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge
PURCHASE

Lethbridge - Race 10	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $11,050 • Post: 4:45P
FILLIES AND MARES SPRING S. - FOR 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP FILLIES AND MARES. $150. T.O.E. CHECK STAKE BOOK FOR PREFERENCES.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. JACRODRA'S DEVIL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JACRODRA'S DEVIL: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" desig nation. DEFICIT MAJA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JASMINE CHIEFTAIN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAUSIN MISCHIEF: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth sta rt after a layoff.
4	JACRODRA'S DEVIL	8/1	5/1
6	DEFICIT MAJA	6/5	6/1
3	JASMINE CHIEFTAIN	5/2	7/1
7	CAUSIN MISCHIEF	7/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	JACRODRA'S DEVIL	4	8/1	Front-runner	60	76	71.3	56.2	49.7
2	ABRAA JABRAA	2	2/1	Stalker	69	62	0.0	68.0	60.5
6	DEFICIT MAJA	6	6/5	Alternator/Stalker	70	69	62.8	79.0	76.5
1	SHE'S MY PRIORITY	1	10/1	Trailer	63	47	50.0	61.2	48.7
7	CAUSIN MISCHIEF	7	7/2	Trailer	70	70	0.0	73.2	67.7
3	JASMINE CHIEFTAIN	3	5/2	Trailer	78	74	0.0	70.6	63.1
5	CHICLE SPARKS	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	55	0.0	55.8	43.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park
PURCHASE

Canterbury Park - Race 4	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3-5 • CR: 80 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 2:40P
FOR MN-BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LATIN FORCE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has ru n a Good Race within the last 30 days. FLYING MARTINI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse. HEAVENLY DEACON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
13	LATIN FORCE	3/1	4/1
3	FLYING MARTINI	4/1	6/1
14	HEAVENLY DEACON	12/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
12	WESTDAKOTA	12	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	76.8	47.4	24.4
2	SOUTHGATE GATOR	2	10/1	Front-runner	59	54	40.4	40.4	14.9
4	MOE DINGERS	4	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	36.0	19.7	0.0
3	FLYING MARTINI	3	4/1	Stalker	75	77	73.0	73.0	68.5
14	HEAVENLY DEACON	14	12/1	Stalker	83	70	66.4	66.4	51.4
8	PASTOR DAVE	8	9/2	Stalker	70	67	63.0	63.0	52.5
5	WAY UP NORTH	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	55.7	55.7	38.7
6	IT'S MILES	6	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	52	49.0	49.0	32.0
10	MOR TIGER PAW	10	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	37	31.4	31.4	8.4
13	LATIN FORCE	13	3/1	Trailer	79	82	65.8	77.6	74.6
1	AIRMAIL FLYER	1	12/1	Trailer	0	0	65.4	65.4	57.4
9	MO MESA	9	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	70	58	61.4	40.2	27.7
11	SHANKAPOTAMUS	11	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	78	74	49.3	49.3	40.8
7	CAN'T KNOW	7	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	78	69	40.8	30.3	10.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $42000 Class Rating: 87

GP - R8 - FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $35,000 OR LESS OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BELLAVININO 2/1
# 1 WE SEA YOU (IRE) 4/1
# 3 LE TOUCHE 7/2

BELLAVININO gets the edge as the bet in here. Her 78 average has this filly with among the top Speed Figures for this race. Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the recipe to a major improvement. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. WE SEA YOU (IRE) - Could provide positive gains based on decent recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 77. The Lasix change (on Lasix) may spark a return to the races for this filly. LE TOUCHE - This pony has a terrific win percentage in turf routes. Could beat this group given the 87 Equibase Speed Fig recorded in her last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 63

MTH - R6 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $10,500 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 FLATTERS CHANCE 4/1
# 4 DAVE THE GREAT 9/2
# 2 ATENTION TO DETAIL 3/2

I like FLATTERS CHANCE here. Cudworth has this gelding racing well and is a very good pick based on the very good Equibase Speed Figures posted in sprint races lately. Should go to the lead and might never look back. The speed figure of 59 from his last race looks strong in here. DAVE THE GREAT - Looks strong against this group of horses in this race and will most likely be one of the front-runners. Recorded a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. ATENTION TO DETAIL - Handler boasts very strong win figures at this distance and surface. He has strong class ratings, averaging 77, and has to be given a chance for this event.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #5 - Post: 5:42pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,600 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#2 TAKER BACK (ML=4/1)
#1 SQUEEZE THE DAY (ML=8/1)
#4 LAURA BRANIGAN (ML=3/1)

TAKER BACK - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. This speedball is cutting back in distance today. Should increase her likelihood of winning. I like the case that this filly's last figure, 83, is tops in this field. SQUEEZE THE DAY - Eikleberry drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more knowledge to believe this one has a shot at this level. This filly should be at the peak of fitness, this far into her form cycle. Ranked number 1 in earnings per start. Another sign that this horse has the class to win today. I know the barn is serious today. The filly gets Lasix for the first time. LAURA BRANIGAN - This mare is in nice condition. Finished third on Jun 1st.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ALOHA BABY (ML=2/1), #6 BRUMBODOPPELGANGER (ML=7/2), #5 SCOOT ALONG (ML=6/1),

ALOHA BABY - Hasn't raced or had any morning activity since June 1st. Not much value on this probable favorite. BRUMBODOPPELGANGER - Doubtful that this animal will finish better than she did last time when placing fourth. SCOOT ALONG - This racer likes to be in the money, but doesn't usually win. Forget the top spot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 TAKER BACK is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,4] with [1,2,4] with [1,2,4,5,6] with [1,2,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#5 HEY COOKIE (ML=3/1)
#7 OBLIGING (ML=6/1)

HEY COOKIE - This jock and trainer's animals have been generating a profitable ROI. Leon should have her moving strong on the turn. With 'blinkers-on' this filly should be very competitive. OBLIGING - The jockey and trainer combination have a beneficial ROI when they unite.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DIGITAL SALE (ML=5/2), #1 MADAM PROSECUTOR (ML=3/1), #4 HORSEPLAY (ML=9/2),

DIGITAL SALE - Had to show me much more last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. This horse ran a quite unimpressive speed figure last time out. She shouldn't run much better and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that rating. MADAM PROSECUTOR - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint race in the last sixty days. Not the greatest of indicators. HORSEPLAY - She only beat a maiden claiming field in the last contest. Have to pass on this one versus winners for now.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HEY COOKIE - I'm betting on this one today. An easier level of competition is going to make a big difference. Will be strong today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 HEY COOKIE on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	5 with 7 with [3,4,6] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:46 AM

Los Alamitos Tip Sheet - June 29

Jun. 28, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:00 PM ET
$47,000.00

Race 1 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	1-1	4	Howin	D Van Dyke
Place	5-1	3	Issa Court	K J Desormeaux
Show	5-1	5	Nothing Is Forever	K Frey
Wild card	8-1	6	Corporal Violette	K Kimura
Alternate 1	9-2	2	Epione	H I Berrios
Alternate 2	6-1	1	Illhaveanotherkiss	E A Maldonado

Exacta 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/5 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:28 PM ET
Best Bet #3 PROUD RACER
$45,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	2-1	3	Proud Racer	R Gonzalez
Place	5-2	1	Fix It Quick	K Kimura
Show	3-1	4	Sogno Di Vino	D A Herrera
Wild card	15-1	5	Maxville	W Antongeorgi III
Alternate 1	6-1	7	Irish Element	K Frey
Alternate 2	20-1	2	Smoothwhskygoindwn	A Ayuso

Exacta 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:59 PM ET
Best Bet #3 ACE ACE BABY
$27,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	2-1	3	Ace Ace Baby	A Espinoza
Place	3-1	7	Miracle Ball	K Kimura
Show	6-1	2	Shes Just Fluffy	A Ayuso
Wild card	5-2	4	Annies Joy	T Baze
Alternate 1	10-1	1	Ryders Candy	K Frey
Alternate 2	8-1	5	Thirsty Destiny	D Chavez

Exacta3-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOXTrifecta2/3/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOXRace #4Dirt1 Mile - Post Time: 05:32 PM ET
$22,000.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	4-1	4	The Gypsy Cowboy	T Baze
Place	5-1	6	Silver N Black	K J Desormeaux
Show	2-1	7	Malibu Rocks	K Frey
Wild card	20-1	1	Tiger Strength	A Aguilar
Alternate 1	6-1	3	Bid On the Prize	A Escobedo
Alternate 2	7-2	5	Big Juanito	D A Herrera

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
Trifecta 4/6/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:05 PM ET
$45,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	9-5	6	What Has Been	K Frey
Place	3-1	3	Mystic Moses	A Aguilar
Show	5-1	2	Love the Pressure	A Espinoza
Wild card	15-1	4	Bandolero	A Ayuso
Alternate 1	5-2	7	Knowhere	K Kimura
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Big Vengeance	T J Pereira

Exacta 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:35 PM ET
$21,000.00

Race 6 Claiming

Win	5-1	5	Charmed Dream	K Frey
Place	9-5	2	Maniae	A Ayuso
Show	4-1	3	Buds N Suds	T J Pereira
Wild card	7-2	7	Impractical Diva	T Baze
Alternate 1	9-2	1	Ryans Girl	D A Herrera
Alternate 2	20-1	4	Crypto Crush	A Aguilar

Exacta 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:05 PM ET
Best Bet #1 MIRINDA
$47,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-2	1	Mirinda	E A Maldonado
Place	7-2	7	Over Attracted	H I Berrios
Show	15-1	2	Donttellourwives	D A Herrera
Wild card	6-1	3	Velocious	A Espinoza
Alternate 1	9-5	8	Sugar Hi	A Ayuso
Alternate 2	8-1	4	Hot Girl Walk	K Kimura

Exacta 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:35 PM ET
$30,000.00

Race 8 Maiden Claiming

Win	2-1	3	Sei Bella	T Baze
Place	6-1	4	Spiritual Thought	K Frey
Show	3-1	6	Sexy Blue	A L Bautista
Wild card	10-1	5	Rosie Ann Rules	A Aguilar
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Empress of Grace	T J Pereira
Alternate 2	8-1	7	Little Silver Girl	A Escobedo

Exacta 3-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:47 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - June 29

Jun. 28, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 12:45 PM ET
Best Bet #6 MARGARITA GIRL
$120,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	6	Margarita Girl	A Fresu
Place	4-1	3	Strong Destiny	F Geroux
Show	8-1	1	In the Stars	E Morales
Wild card	3-1	2	Bundle	F Prat
Alternate 1	8-1	7	Dancing Drums	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	8-1	8	Buckle Chaser	E Esquivel

Exacta 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 01:14 PM ET
Best Bet #4 RAGUEL
$127,000.00

Race 2 Allowance

Win	3-1	4	Raguel	L Saez
Place	5-2	6	Gun Party	J L Ortiz
Show	7-2	3	Gamblers Tail	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	5-1	1	Sun Thunder	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	6-1	5	First Player	E Morales
Alternate 2	4-1	2	Shoppers Revenge	K J Asmussen

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:43 PM ET
$92,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	2	It Aint Like That	M Gutierrez
Place	9-2	6	Amazing Amanda	J L Ortiz
Show	6-1	4	Dolce Vino	L Saez
Wild card	8-1	1	Victory Music	E Morales
Alternate 1	12-1	12	Minimalist	S Figueroa
Alternate 2	12-1	10	Undisputable	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:14 PM ET
$120,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	2	Exonerate	F Geroux
Place	9-2	9	I Did I Did	J Alvarado
Show	5-1	4	Dazzle dOro	J L Ortiz
Wild card	12-1	12	Very Quiet	J A Torres
Alternate 1	12-1	1	Quality Spirits	L Saez
Alternate 2	6-1	8	Alpyland	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 2-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/9 BOX, 4/9/12 BOX
Race #5
Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:46 PM ET
$134,000.00

Race 5 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-1	9	Satin Blue	J L Ortiz
Place	9-2	11	Foxxy Cleopatra	J Loveberry
Show	6-1	4	Cart Girl Sam	J R Leparoux
Wild card	7-2	2	Niki Nine Doors	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	6-1	7	Everyoneloveslinda	L Saez
Alternate 2	8-1	5	Moonlit Lady	E Morales

Exacta 9-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/9/11 BOX, 2/4/11 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:18 PM ET
$225,000.00

Race 6 Stakes

Win	3-1	5	Comport	L Saez
Place	5-2	1	Spice Runner	J L Ortiz
Show	12-1	3	Duke of Suggins	J Graham
Wild card	12-1	2	Longstrider	E Morales
Alternate 1	4-1	6	Saul Elliott	A Fresu
Alternate 2	9-2	4	Romeo	X Perez

Exacta 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:51 PM ET
$225,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	4-1	8	Color Comin In	L Saez
Place	10-1	9	Lilies N Paradise	E Morales
Show	20-1	5	Jaboss	S Doyle
Wild card	5-1	3	Light Won Up	A Fresu
Alternate 1	3-1	1	Essential Coffee	F Prat
Alternate 2	7-2	4	Americathegreat	J L Ortiz

Exacta 8-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
Trifecta 5/8/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:23 PM ET
$300,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	9-5	4	Saudi Crown	F Geroux
Place	2-1	1	Banishing	J L Ortiz
Show	10-1	5	Tumbarumba	L Saez
Wild card	6-1	2	Judge Miller	A Fresu
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Extra Anejo	F Prat
Alternate 2	10-1	7	Will Take It	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
Race #9
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 04:55 PM ET
$175,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	8-5	7	Pin Up Betty	L Saez
Place	3-1	8	Charlenes Dream	R Bejarano
Show	5-1	3	Duvet Day	F Prat
Wild card	10-1	4	Generous Lover	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Long Ago	B Curtis
Alternate 2	6-1	2	Sparkle Blue	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 7-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/7/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:27 PM ET
$250,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	5-1	10	Verifire	F Prat
Place	5-1	7	Speed King	J Alvarado
Show	9-2	2	Captain Cook	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	8-1	5	Retribution	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	4-1	8	Flood Zone	F Geroux
Alternate 2	8-1	13	Furio	J A Torres

Exacta 10-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/7/10 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
Race #11
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 05:58 PM ET
Best Bet #4 MASSARAT
$120,000.00

Race 11 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	4	Massarat	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	4-1	2	Twolatebabydoll	J Graham
Show	9-2	5	Good Game	F Geroux
Wild card	6-1	11	Miss Pharaoh	L Dettori
Alternate 1	10-1	13	Eyes On Italy	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	15-1	1	Kimber Spice	S Doyle

Exacta 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/5 BOX, 2/5/11 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:48 AM

Churchill Downs Hotlist - June 29

Jun. 28, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Strong Destiny was third in a useful debut and should post a maiden win. (6) Margarita Girl has already faced winners and will be the key rival. (2) Bundle should like this distance. (7) Dancing Drums is an interesting firster. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-7. Doubles: 2-3-6-7 with 3-4-6.
2nd race – (6) Gun Party should thrive on a fast track and handle this field. (4) Raguel seeks a third straight win and will be formidable here. (3) Gamblers Tail could bounce back to top form. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-6.
5th race – (9) Satin Blue has a strong late kick and looks best here. (2) Nikki Nine Doors looks like the main rival. (4) Cart Girl Sam has enough speed to be a factor. (8) High Fashion Kate missed by a nose and cannot be overlooked. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-8-9.
7th race – (4) Americathegreat got off to a bad start and then closed fast in her debut. Makes amends here. (1) Essential Coffee was an easy winner but was DQ’d. (3) Light Won Up ships in off a fast California win. (9) Lilies N Paradise won nicely in her debut. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-9.
10th race – (10) Verify is 2-for-2 and will get tested for class here. (2) Captain Cook should appreciate the turnback to a sprint. (5) Retribution comes off a stakes win and merits serious consideration. (13) Furio won by a nose and will like the added distance. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-10-13.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2025, 07:48 AM

Belmont Park at Aqueduct Hotlist - June 29

Jun. 28, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/8 mi TURF] – (1) Sassetti made her debut last month at 12-1 and rallied to get third in a large field. (2B) Just One More had a third-place finish in her third start which was in November and moves back to the barn of Horacio DePaz following a January layoff. (3) Leonora’s Secret made the first start of her career on the grass last year at 6-1 and will make her 2025 debut. (5) On a Summer Day had her first race of the year in April and was second and then ran at Saratoga in June. She gets an upgrade to a top turf jockey.
3^rd race [Alw 88000 N1X, 1 mi] – (1) Tuscan Gold was last seen running fourth in the 2024 Preakness (G1) at 4-1 for Chad Brown. (4) Waitlist finished in the top three in a trio of allowance races since the beginning of May for Linda Rice. (3) Hop Sing broke his maiden last month after a pair of second-place finishes. (6) Chileno has two starts and two seconds this year after winning a $32,000 claimer in December.
4^th race [OC25k/SAL 16k, 1mi] – (1) Pistol Liz Ablazen won a $32,000 claimer in April and get taken twice since then and ran two times in tougher spots. (3) Whistler’s Style won for a $16,000 tag in April, got claimed, and comes back for Linda Rice. (7) Mursal was claimed from a third-place finish for $32,000 about 16 months ago. She came back in March with an impressive front-end victory and drops out of a pair of allowances to run for the $25,000 option. (5) Floge was claimed from a victory in May for $10,000 and tried a tougher starter allowance than here.
7^th race [Clm 20000, 6 ? F] – (3) Lost in Rome (B) broke badly, raced wide, got the lead, finished second and was claimed back after his third top three finish in a row. He comes back after 3 weeks rest. (10) Amundson won 5 out of his last 8 starts including in April when he was claimed from a win for $25,000 against NY-breds. (1) Concorde Spirit won a starter allowance at Aqueduct in March, ran three more times, and drops in for the lowest level in his career. (8) Boss Tweed comes back from a December layoff for Brad Cox who claimed him for $50,000 in October.
Best bets: Sassetti (1^st); Tuscan Gold (3^rd); Best value: Pistol Liz Ablazen (4^th); Lost in Rome (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(3)	Lost in Rome	B on 6/8	7	Broke badly, raced wide, but finished second.