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legit picks
highest rated 6* packers
highest rated 6* packers
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DCI NFL
Season
Straight Up: 105-48 (.686)
ATS: 82-69 (.543)
ATS Vary Units: 423-327 (.564)
Over/Under: 79-75 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 237-199 (.544)
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Green Bay 36, DETROIT 27
DALLAS 23, Miami 16
BALTIMORE 20, San Francisco 18Comment
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NCAA Football Game Picks
Texas at Texas A&M
The Aggies look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog. Texas A&M is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Aggies favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-7 1/2).
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24
Time Posted: 5:00 p.m. EST (11/23)
Game 109-110: Texas at Texas A&M (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 97.924; Texas A&M 107.900
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 10; 61
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 7 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-7 1/2); OverComment
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Reno SportsAdvisors
4* Ravens -3 -1.20Comment
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Cappers Access
Packers -6
Dolphins +7
Ravens -3Comment
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Insider Edge
5* 49ers +3 1/2
3* Detroit +6 1/2Comment
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SB Professor
Original NFL Early Picks
4:15 PM EST
106. Dallas Cowboys -6.5* (line is -7 just about everywhere but you get a big bump in expected winning % buying the half point here so it's worth the extra juice)Comment
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SPORTS NETWORK OVERALL ANALYSIS:
Since only one team in NFL history has made through a full 16-game schedule undefeated, odds are the Packers are going to slip up sometime in the coming weeks. And with a Detroit defense capable of taking Rodgers out of his comfort zone and spoiling his unbelievable run of excellence, not to mention an immense amount of motivation with the arrival of the reigning world champions into the Lions' den on a national stage, this could be that day. Green Bay has still been able to answer every challenge that's come it's way, however, and a team that reached the Super Bowl by winning three straight weeks on the road last season isn't going to be intimidated by either the hostile environment or the magnitude of the moment. Expect plenty of points from two offenses that can light up the scoreboard, and for the more reliable Packers to make one or two fewer mistakes than their hungry opponent that provides the difference.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Packers 34, Lions 31
Two teams that looked like a couple of turkeys a few weeks back should provide a relatively-entertaining contest to fill the time between the two marquee matchups that will take place on Thursday. Though the Cowboys have been strong at home this season and historically good on Thanksgiving, this one may not be so easy due to Miami's dominance on defense as of late and Moore's emergence into a serviceable quarterback. However, shutting down a balanced Dallas offense with a host of high-caliber playmakers will be far more difficult than doing so against the anemic units of Kansas City, Washington and Buffalo -- the Dolphins' three victims during their winning run. Miami should be able to keep the Cowboys from scoring at will, but may not have the firepower to put up the necessary points to extend its streak.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 20, Dolphins 14
Thanksgiving is traditionally about family, but Jim and John Harbaugh will certainly be putting their blood ties aside this Thursday. As the home team, the Ravens will certainly be favored, but the 49ers have been proving doubters wrong for eight straight games. However, the odds of San Francisco running the table from here on out is pretty slim and the club is due for a letdown. Baltimore's defense is the best that the Niners have faced at this point and should offer the club a bit of a reality check.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ravens 20, 49ers 16
The Longhorns have struggled to find their groove offensively and although this is a huge rivalry game, Texas will be hard-pressed to match score for score with the explosive Aggies, especially in College Station.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Texas A&M 34, Texas 20Comment
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SPORTSBETTINGSTATS
Thanksgiving Day Best NCAA CFB Bet
Texas Longhorns at Texas A&M Aggies (-7.5 54)
In a huge Big 12 rivalry, the Texas Longhorns and the Texas A&M Aggies clash in a Thanksgiving Day battle for state bragging rights at Kyle Field in College Station in the annual Lone Star Showdown. The game is slated to get underway at 8 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Texas comes into this game licking its wounds after a brutal 17-13 loss to Kansas State as a 7.5-point home favorite this past Saturday. The total stayed well ‘under’ the 54-point total in this unexpected defensive battle. The Longhorns are now 6-4 straight-up (5-5 against the spread) overall and 3-4 SU in the Big 12 after losing four of their last six games. The total has gone 4-5-1 over the course of their 10 games.
The Longhorns’ offense has all but disappeared over the past two games with a total of 18 points after averaging 34 points through their first eight games. They are still moving the ball up and down the field especially on the ground with an average of 223.8 rushing yards per game, but have been unable to convert this production to points lately.
Texas A&M’s season has also been a disaster down the stretch with three losses in its last four games. This past Saturday it was able to snap-out of the funk with a 61-7 pounding of Kansas as a 31-point home favorite. It was the Aggies sixth win of the season against five defeats and they are now 3-8 ATS. The total went ‘over’ the 66-point line against the Jayhawks and has now gone ‘over’ in seven of their 11 games this year.
Scoring has not been an issue for Texas A&M this season with an average of 40.9 points a game, which is ranked 10th in the country. Its problem has been its defense’s inability to stop opposing teams from doing the same. The Aggies are giving-up an average of 28.8 points a game, which ranks them 78th overall.
The Longhorns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in the Big 12 and just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of their last five conference games.
The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of their last seven games against the Big 12.
Head-to-head in this series, Texas is just 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to College Station and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last eight games between the two.
While 8.5-points are a lot to give-up in such a heated rivalry, stick with the Aggies’ offense to keep the heat on all game long to come away with a win that covers the spread.
PICK: Texas A&M -8.5Comment
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Thursday’s Betting Tips: Bettors Siding With 49ers
WHO'S HOT
NCAAF: The over is 6-1 in Texas A&M’s last seven as a favorite.
NCAAB: UConn has covered the number in 10 of its last 12.
NCAAB: Florida State is 7-1-1 in its last nine overall.
WHO'S NOT
NCAAF: Texas is 1-5 against the spread in its last six meetings with Texas A&M.
NCAAB: Wake Forest is 8-28 against the spread in its last 36 neutral site games.
NCAAB: Villanova is 1-15 against the spread in its last 16 overall.
KEY STAT
79 – The NFL has seen 79 games decided by seven or fewer points heading into Week 12, which is second only to 81 games in 1988.
INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED
James Starks, Green Bay Packers – Starks remains a game-time decision for Thursday's game against the Detroit Lions but he did participate in the team’s walkthrough on Wednesday. Starks is battling knee and ankle injuries and is officially listed as questionable for the contest. The 25-year-old was injured in last week's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, limited to just 11 carries for 38 yards. Head coach Mike McCarthy said Starks will not be limited if he is able to play. Starks has 120 rushes for 541 yards and a touchdown so far this season.
GAME OF THE DAY
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (6, 55.5)
NOTABLE QUOTABLE
"The fact that it's the last one for a long time ....Coach (Mike) Sherman has hit that with our guys. This is the one that you're going to be talking about, 10 or 20 years from now. The last time we played Texas, did we win or lose? And we've got a chance to affect that. That's our challenge and that's what's driving us." – Texas A&M defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter about Thursday’s matchup with Texas. This could be the last matchup between the two clubs until 2018 at the earliest. A&M is currently set as an 8-point favorite.
TIPS AND NOTES
It looks as though bettors are going to ride the San Francisco 49ers as underdogs Thursday evening. Some books had the Niners set as high as +4.5 as they get set to invade Baltimore in Thanksgiving’s nightcap, but as of Wednesday evening they were hovering between +3.5 and +3 with more than 62 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors supporting San Francisco. The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this season. Baltimore’s middle linebacker Ray Lewis remains a game-time decision after missing last week’s game with a foot injury.
Texas A&M senior running back Cyrus Gray is still listed as a game-time decision for Thursday's date with Texas. Originally, A&M's training staff thought Gray had just suffered a bruised shoulder, but it turned out to be a stress fracture. Gray has rumbled for 1045 yards and 12 touchdowns this season and if he can't go it will be a huge loss with Christine Michael already out.Comment
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COLLEGE FUNDS
Thanksgiving Day Best NCAAB Bets
N.C. Asheville Bulldogs at Connecticut Huskies (-13, 139.5)
UConn may not have Kemba Walker to hit their big shots this season, but it looks like they have a couple of guys ready to handle the scoring load.
Through four games, Jeremy Lamb is averaging 22.8 points per game and Shabazz Napier is chipping in 18 per contest to pace the Huskies to an undefeated record heading into the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in Paradise Island.
Napier took the spotlight in UConn’s most recent win, going off for 22 points, 13 assists and 12 boards in an 87-70 victory over Choppin State.
"To come in and do a triple-double, with all that pressure on him: Don't foul, take care of the ball, let's not turn it over. He is one tough kid. He is crafty. I thought he was just terrific," coach Jim Calhoun told reporters of Napier.
UConn supporters have seen just one spread for their Huskies so far this season and went home empty handed as their club downed Columbia 70-57 as 21.5-point favorite. They should be able to earn their first payday in this one.
PICK: UCONN
Dayton at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6, 140)
Like so many teams this time of year, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are going through a learning curve right now. They’re still looking to get comfortable with systems and need these early games to get on the same page.
They took a step in the right direction Sunday, beating up on NC Central 93-79. They hit better than 70 percent of their trey attempts and shot 57.6 percent from the floor.
"We're starting to gel a little bit as a team, getting to know each other's tendencies,'' freshman Chase Fischer told reporters. "And I think it's just going to keep progressing. We're going to be a really fun team to watch five games in, and then when ACC play starts.''
They’ll open up play in the Old Spice Classic Thursday in Orlando looking to build on their 3-0 straight up record (1-1 against the spread) against Dayton.
This one should be close.
PICK: Wake ForestComment
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BANG THE BOOK
Thanksgiving Day Best NFL Bets
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 44)
Thanksgiving Day football betting action is a great tradition like none other in all of sports, and here at Bang the Book, we are making our NFL picks for the clash between the Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins have the best record on Thanksgiving Day in terms of winning percentage amongst teams that have played at least five times on the holiday at 5-1, and they hope to continue that this week in Big D, a site of three of their five wins. Miami’s season looked to be said and done with after starting off the campaign 0-7, but since that point, Head Coach Tony Sparano has really gotten his team rolling, winning three in a row in convincing fashion. Now, an upset in this game, and all of a sudden, the squad could legitimately be a longshot to make the playoffs in the AFC. The key has been the defense, which just refuses to give up touchdowns now. The offense has done a good job taking care of the football, and RB Reggie Bush has had a renaissance as a runner, scoring a touchdown in each of the last three games. There is still a lot of work to do, and we have to remember that games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Washington Redskins aren’t exactly wins that will stand out at the end of the season, but there is no doubt that this team is more formidable now than it was a month ago.
The Cowboys have hit their annual Thanksgiving Day game on a high as well, winning three straight games as well. Again, the quality of opponent really hasn’t been all that special, but wins are wins, and there is no doubt that this is a team that is on the cusp of getting back to the postseason. Dallas has tied for the lead in the NFC East, and with two games with the co-leaders, the New York Giants still on tap, it could use all the wins that it can get. QB Tony Romo is No. 5 in the league in touchdown passes this year with 19, but once again, he is likely going to be without one of his favorite receivers, WR Miles Austin. Austin has a hamstring injury and has missed the last two games. There is only one game all year long in which Austin, WR Dez Bryant, and TE Jason Witten have all played from start to finish, thus making it all the more remarkable that Romo has been able to put up these types of numbers.
Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Dallas is probably going to find a way to win this game, but we aren’t going to be counting out the Fins. We do suggest waiting to see if you can find a 7.5 later in the week, as the public loves backing the Cowboys and fading the Lions on Thanksgiving. In the end though, you’re going to be better served snaring the points.
PICK: Miami Dolphins +7
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 38.5)
Thanksgiving Day is generally a time for families to get together, and in the NFL betting world, this really isn’t an exception. Jim Harbaugh and John Harbaugh will square off against one another in the night cap on Thursday night, as the Baltimore Ravens play host to the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners just continue to roll, as they are not just 9-1 SU, but they are 9-0-1 ATS as well on the season. That type of mark is just unheard of in the NFL betting world, but it is one that San Francisco is wearing well. The team is on the verge of clinching the NFC West, and it will do so with a win and a loss by the Seattle Seahawks this week. What we have to remember is that the 49ers are just a game back of the top seed in the conference, though they are only two games up for a first round bye. QB Alex Smith doesn’t have numbers that will overwhelm you, but he is doing a fantastic job resurrecting his career. He has thrown for just 1,976 yards, a far cry from the over 3,000 yards that four quarterbacks have this year, but he is completing 62.4 percent of his passes and has a TD/INT ratio of 13/4. That parlayed with a ground game that ranks No. 6 in the game at 134.2 yards per game and a defense that is only allowing 14.5 points per game, and you have the perfect makings of a team that could be on its way to a shocking trip to the Super Bowl when push comes to shove.
Baltimore is one of the most exacerbating teams in the game. It has some fantastic wins against some of the best in the game, including when it knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers twice and a home win against the Houston Texans. However, for all of those great wins comes a loss against a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Seattle Seahawks. The Ravens played their first game in quite some time without LB Ray Lewis last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Lewis might not be able to give it a go this week with a toe injury, and S Tom Zbikowski could be out of the fold as well. That being said, this is still a defense which is absolutely dominating. There aren’t many teams in the game that can say they rank in the Top 10 in the league in total defense, rushing defense, passing defense, and scoring, but that’s the bill that fits the Ravens. Watch out for RB Ray Rice as well, as he has 1,176 total yards to go with 10 total touchdowns on the campaign.
San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Everyone thinks that this is going to be the game in which the Niners fall back to earth, but we just don’t agree. San Francisco might be the better of these two teams when push comes to shove, and we think that that it will flex its muscles on the road for the fifth time this season. This should be a remarkable game that comes down to the wire.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers +3.5Comment
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LuckyDaySports
Thursday’s Comp Play
NCAAF
Texas +7.5Comment
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Doc Sports
Texas +8
David Chan aka The Dragon
10* Texas +8.5 "Samurai"
Nick Parsons aka The Bookiekiller
10* Tex/A&M ov 52.5 "Texas Chainsaw Massacre"Comment
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Mike Neri Sports
3* Dallas -7
3* San Francisco / Baltimore Over 38.5Comment
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