Tuesday 7/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:41 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Sha Tin | July 1, 2025

June 30, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

A special Tuesday edition at Sha Tin is on deck for tomorrow morning with 10 races ready to dig into. Some familiar names to Hong Kong’s bettors are making yet another appearance in the program, so we’ll do our best to decipher the contenders from the pretenders and hope to beat the public opinions.

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – July 1
Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses with a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 1 | 1800M | Class 5
Win – 10 MR ALADDIN

Notes: Why not take a 0-for-23 lifetime runner to open this special card? 10 MR ALADDIN tops the PBR charts and will only be carrying 122 pounds in Tuesday’s lid-lifter. The second-choice in the ratings is 3 LEATHER MASTER who ran against MR ALADDIN on May 14th. LEATHER MASTER finished a fourth of a length better while carrying two pounds less over a firm course, and he rated a 113 Prime Burke Rating compared to MR ALADDIN’s 114 for the same race. That was LEATHER MASTER’s highest rated race in his last seven starts, and MR ALADDIN has put up a 114 twice in a streak of four straight 100+ rated races. We will need our top choice to put it all together and show he can go by the field, but with the numbers and a Morning Line of 13/2, I will be playing to win.

Race 3 | 1400M | Class 4
Win – 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE
Exacta Box – 2,4

Notes: The forecast is calling for light rain and there is expected to be some moisture in the grass at Sha Tin. I’m expecting a “Good” course rating, and that condition is likely to come into play in this seven-furlong sprint. Heavy Morning Line favorite, 4 MIGHTY STEED, ran an impressive 1:21:62 in his last race going seven furlongs on a “Good” course losing by just a neck. Similarly, 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE ran under similar conditions with a final time of 1:21:94 to round out a series of sub 1:22 times that rival the best finishes of most of the horses in this field. In his last run over a “Good” course, SPIRIT OF PEACE was carrying 135 pounds compared to MIGHTY STEED’s 125. That’s a ten pound and 0.32 second difference over essentially the same race. MIGHTY STEED adds three pounds (128) from his last start and SPIRIT OF PEACE drops a pair (131). At the Morning Line odds of 36/1 for SPIRIT OF PEACE and 6/5 for MIGHTY STEED, I am taking the long odds to win and boxing these two in an Exacta as the best in the field.

Race 4 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 2 LUNAR DASH

Notes: In one of the most open races I’ve seen at Hong Kong, the Morning Line favorite is 3 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER at 8/1 for his first start. I’m not going to overcomplicate this race. 2 LUNAR DASH is a three-year-old gelding by STREET BOSS who has run just once, losing by a neck at off odds of 2/1. Zac Purton stays on board for his second try, and his PBR numbers top the field. Let’s play him to win.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – 3 BUNDLE OF CHARM
Exacta Box – 3,12

Notes: 3 BUNDLE OF CHARM tops the PBR charts and has put up an impressive sub-1:09 time at six furlongs on both the All-Weather surface and a “Good” turf course. That kind of time exceeds the best of this field by a good margin for this distance. I think he’s the fastest in the field, and I don’t believe the pace scenario is going to be far from fair. There aren’t any big changes in the weight he’s going to carry, and John Size continues to run a hot barn in Hong Kong. At 11/1 on the Morning Line, I really like this horse’s chance and price in the penultimate race of the card. Keeping a steep handicap, 12 MATTERS MOST is getting the call back up to Class 3 and will only be carrying 114 pounds. His times have been improving, and I like his chances at being near the lead from gate to wire. Let’s box these two in the Exacta and hope to get the bigger price home.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:42 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #8

#2 May Mays Castle	She's not all that reliable, but she isn't too far removed from some races that might keep her in the frame at a nice number. Longshot appeal with a chasing/first-over trip?
#8 H. T. Xena	She's a pretty serious finisher and looks on paper to at least get a fair race shape today, but it's always tough to take a mild kind of price on a horse who is dependent on getting past every one of them to score.
#7 Grace and Glory	Would want her and #6 Living in Style on the tickets here, as they both have a couple races on the page that could play well here and can get the jump on 'Xena.
Race Summary	May Mays Castle offers some appeal at a price in here. The hope is that she's getting back to something like the early May run.

Thistledown - Race #4

#1 Aquavit	He may offer an OK price here while effectively making his first route start after the brutal beginning ruined his day last out. Not much pace in here except the guy outside of him, so a clean break today could have him on a run for it from the start.
#2 Moonlite Dance	He and the top choice figure to settle at least the early score, as he's going to get around two turns for the first time after quitting when denied the lead last out. Could force the issue too much.
#6 Turkodancer	He's supposed to be tough after the good run with special weight company last out, but he was also no serious threat when second at this level going short a couple starts back. Needs the top pair to come back.
Race Summary	Aquavit is worth another look here -- the overall form isn't much to write home about, but he could be controlling pace from the fence if he can get himself out of the gate.

Thistledown - Race #7

#4 Candymonium	She was no real match for a couple of these last time out, but the runner drawn widest of all adds some more pace this time around and could help this one get a slightly better setup. That even kind of run could play better today.
#6 Getaway Bay	She looks like the one to beat with some attacking pace from the outside, and she is well positioned to discourage all the other forward players early. The one to catch and beat.
#5 Austrian Navy	She has some pace but can also sit just a bit, and that might give her the jump on the top choice by just settling back off the other pace types.
Race Summary	Candymonium might fare better here with Getaway Bay joining the lineup, and I'm hoping she gets a kind of boring one-paced trip that just fits the flow well enough to score.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:42 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #2

#4 LILLY ROSE EXPRESS (15-1)	Heavily bet but tired in turf mile, drops, cuts back, projects good trip.
#1 B ON THE LOOSE (2-1)	Found proper level, got up for third in longer sprint as the favorite.
#7 OSO FANCY (5-1)	Exits MSW ranks for top barn, runner-up in latest came back to win.
Race Summary	LILLY ROSE EXPRESS was heavily bet in a turf route race on short rest but gave way readily. She raced evenly from post 12 in a MSW sprint two back and could awaken in this spot with a decent pace to run at. The price is right for a win and place bet and 1-4-7 exacta box.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3

#4 WORLD FAIR (5-1)	Long duel, led between calls late at Oaklawn, settled for second again.
#2 SHALLUS (2-1)	Rallied for share at Churchill and Keeneland with inner post draws recently.
#5 DOROTEO (5-2)	Ran second in debut stakes race at 6F, worked 5F bullet from gate off layoff.
Race Summary	WORLD FAIR, second in his last three starts for a claiming tag at Oaklawn Park, jumps back into MSW company for his first start locally. He emerged from a stretch duel with a brief lead in his latest start before a 10-1 first-time starter passed by. He is 0-for-10 at the distance but shows a couple good 4F breezes for his return from a two-month freshening. Bet to win and place and play 4-2 and 4-5 exactas.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #7

#10 RAISING KANE (5-1)	Improved with blinkers, ‘grinded’ for 7F win, tests turf for first time.
#7 SNOW KING (8-1)	Took money but was roughed up on short rest and finished third.
#3 GAGLIARDI (7-2)	Broke maiden at this distance, has good speed and can use it well in this spot.
Race Summary	RAISING KANE chased a fast pace on the class drop and got up to win at 7F on the Churchill Downs main track. He was entered on turf early in the year but gets to run on it for the first time today. Bet to win and place and play a 3-7-10 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 3	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5), 20 Cent Pick 4 (Races 3-4-5-6)
Claiming $6,250 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $19,800 • Post: 1:11P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS) (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF FIVE FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Trailer. SIGIRIYA is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SIGIRIYA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. LULU'S LULLABY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SPECTACULAR FORCE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. H orse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	SIGIRIYA	5/2	7/2
4	LULU'S LULLABY	4/1	9/2
7	SPECTACULAR FORCE	15/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	GOLDEN SPRING	5	5/1	Front-runner	55	56	72.8	37.4	24.9
3	LOADED SECRET	3	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	67	63	36.0	53.1	44.6
1	SIGIRIYA	1	5/2	Trailer	64	54	92.0	65.4	60.9
7	SPECTACULAR FORCE	7	15/1	Trailer	72	66	46.7	55.3	47.3
4	LULU'S LULLABY	4	4/1	Trailer	72	62	33.6	59.4	52.9
2	MISTY POINT	2	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	49	57.7	48.5	40.5
6	RUNNING ARGUMENT	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	65	42.4	51.6	45.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fairmount Park
PURCHASE

Fairmount Park - Race 1	$1.00 Daily Double (Races 1-2) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) .10 Cent Superfecta / Pick 5 (.50 Cent Minimum Wager) (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 1:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BERNIE LOMAX: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TAL E OF FAME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. LAYTON THE DAY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SWAGGY GEORGE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourt h start after a layoff. SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
8	BERNIE LOMAX	5/2	5/1
5	TALE OF FAME	9/2	5/1
6	LAYTON THE DAY	15/1	9/1
7	SWAGGY GEORGE	10/1	9/1
9	SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	BERNIE LOMAX	8	5/2	Front-runner	84	87	85.6	74.0	63.5
4	SAND MOUNTAIN	4	10/1	Front-runner	84	65	78.6	60.4	48.9
6	LAYTON THE DAY	6	15/1	Front-runner	85	81	77.6	60.6	47.1
5	TALE OF FAME	5	9/2	Front-runner	81	72	70.0	74.2	70.7
3	RISKY BOY	3	7/2	Front-runner	79	74	67.6	61.4	52.4
9	SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY	9	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	82	85.0	59.0	53.0
7	SWAGGY GEORGE	7	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	85	73	64.4	63.8	56.3
1	GRAPHENE CASSOCK	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	68	70.2	57.8	44.3
2	D' YANK	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	78	46.0	61.0	49.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR REGISTERED QUARTER HORSES, REGISTERED INDIANA BRED, THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ZOOMIN FEATURE 8/1
# 8 AP POLITICAL PATRIOT 7/2
# 10 WRS MYNAMEISRIP 2/1

I think ZOOMIN FEATURE is a competitive selection and is a very strong value-based wager given the 8/1 line. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 83 - of his last effort. AP POLITICAL PATRIOT - Ruiz should be able to get this gelding to break out quickly in this competition. Has raced well in short races. WRS MYNAMEISRIP - With a reliable 75 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:25pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#2 MISTERCHILLIWILLI (ML=5/1)

MISTERCHILLIWILLI - Fletcher brings him back again. I advise you stay with this hot gelding. Ran in the last race against a higher rated class of horses at Mountaineer Park. The move down in class should suit him well. I like the hard fact that this gelding's last rating, 89, is tops in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SKIPPERINI (ML=3/1), #7 TAKECHARGEJUSTICE (ML=7/2), #8 CROWNED JEWEL (ML=6/1),

SKIPPERINI - June 2nd is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. TAKECHARGEJUSTICE - This horse showed little last time out of the box finishing fifth. No reason to expect improvement in today's event. CROWNED JEWEL - This gelding gave a less than rousing performance last time out of the box.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 MISTERCHILLIWILLI on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [4,8] with [3,4,8,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,4,8,11] with [3,4,8,11] with [3,4,8,11] Total Cost: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $23800 Class Rating: 71

IND - R5 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 MISCHIEF LILY 2/1
# 2 MELODITY 7/2
# 8 SILENT SECRETARY (BRZ) 5/1

MISCHIEF LILY has a decent shot to take this race. Could provide positive gains based on formidable recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 67. Dobbs has her trained soundly to break rapidly out of the starting gate. With a competitive 71 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. MELODITY - Mojica has been on fire the last month, winning at a nifty 24 percent rate. With a respectable 71 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. SILENT SECRETARY (BRZ) - With a formidable 68 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Is difficult not to look at based on Equibase speed figs which have been decent - 63 avg - of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2025, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 4:33pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#2 SIMONA'S CHOICE (ML=9/2)

SIMONA'S CHOICE - Was in a non-classified race race at Louisiana Downs in the last race. That event had a class rating of 83 and she is moving down right here. A certain strong challenger. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (fifth). Should improve in this field, with some decent odds. This mare is certainly on the improve with speed ratings of 65, 71, 82 last three out. The 82 most recent race speed fig looks sound on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 UNIFIED LOVE (ML=2/1), #3 DREAM TOWN (ML=5/2), #5 MISCHIEF ANGEL (ML=4/1),

UNIFIED LOVE - You always figure that this horse has a shot to be the victor, but she just misses most every time. DREAM TOWN - Earned a disappointing speed figure in the last race in a $7,500 Claiming race on Jun 1st. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig. MISCHIEF ANGEL - You always believe this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she just misses most of the time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SIMONA'S CHOICE - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top TM Power Rating by at least 5 points.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 SIMONA'S CHOICE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Tuesday 7/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 7/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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