Thursday 7/3/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:40 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Narrative - 7/3/25

July 3, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s Saratoga Narrative
Best Plays for Thursday, July 3, 2025

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 7: Post: 4:20 ET.
Win Play: 9-Scheduling Dude
Degree of Confidence: Very good.
Underneath: none.

Forecast: Scheduling Dude is a son of World of Trouble from an Artie Schiller mare and therefore is bred to move up a ton on grass. Today - finally - he gets his first chance to show it In an abbreviated turf sprint. Based on our pace projection, the R. Dutrow-trained gelding could be quick enough to clear the field from his outside draw and never look back, just as he did in his two career victories earlier in his career when he opened up early and widened from there. Hot riding J. Ortiz takes the call and won’t be waiting around for anybody. Yes, ‘Dude is a 3-yeear-old facing older, but at the price (10-1 morning line) he’s still worth a bit of a gamble.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race: 8. Post: 5:03 ET.
Win Play: 4-Midway Memories
Degree of Confidence: Good.
Underneath: 6-Play with Fire; 2-Love and Poetry.

Forecast: Midway Memories is one of three C. Brown-trained entrants in today’s Wild Applause Stakes for sophomore turf routing fillies and is the least accomplished of the trio, having raced just twice and just coming off a win from much softer maidens. But this could be a very good filly. The daughter of Cairo Prince was thoroughly professional in victory, switching off nicely early and then quickening impressively when turned loose in the final furlong to graduate going away while shading 30 seconds for the final five sixteenths of a mile. She’ll need to step forward again today but could easily do so, and at a decent price (6-1 morning line), so let’s press with her on top in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics while backing her up with a couple of main contenders.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 11: Post: 5:48 ET.
Win Play: Bint Al Dandy (Ire)
Degree of Confidence: Strong.
Underneath: Opera de Ravel (Fr).

Forecast: Bint Al Dandy (Ire) is better than her first two career outings show on paper and we’re expecting her to confirm it today in this maiden turf route affair for fillies and mares. An excellent runner-up when second in her debut in Ireland last year, she was sent to the States in the fall but blew her best chance with a slow start when fifth behind a runaway winner in a hot affair at Kentucky Downs. She returns off a 10 month layoff with a work tab that should have her fit enough, will race without blinkers for a clever outfit, and has all of the makings of a very live item under one of the stable’s “go-to” riders. Her inside draw ensures a ground saving trip, so a career top effort at 6-1 on the morning line by this Irish-bred import can be expected.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:41 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Saratoga Spot Plays | Thursday, July 3, 2025

July 2, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The July 4 Racing Festival opens Thursday at Saratoga and provides 4 additional days at the Spa before the 2025 summer meet gets underway next week. The 11-race card co-features the Victory Ride Stakes in Race 3 and the Wild Applause in Race 8. Here are a couple of my keys to the day.

Saratoga | Race 5 | 3:21 pm ET
#2 Moon Gate (5-1 morning line odds) drops in class to face a level of competition that should give her the edge. Sharp trainer Arnaud Delacour goes sprint-route-sprint in her last 3 starts and the benefit Thursday will be the added endurance from her most recent try over a farther distance. Win bet #2.

Saratoga | Race 9 | 5:38 pm ET
#1 Fromanothamutha (4-1 morning line odds) has an advantageous rail draw, especially when in possession of early speed, for 1-1/8 miles on the Saratoga dirt. Can take advantage of the ground-saving run with a short dash into the first turn under a hustling rider Ricardo Santana Jr. Past races at Saratoga are pretty solid when meeting stronger than these despite an 0-5 local record. Win bet #1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:42 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#6 Palace Revolt	Curious to see what kind of action he takes here -- his local form is pretty reliable, and he gets into an OK spot today off a decent run last out. One of the ones.
#1 Frozen Four	Really flat run from him last time out behind a longshot winner, but he had been turning in some pretty honest efforts prior to that, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bounce back. There with his best.
#4 Mohtafil	He needs a perfectly timed move, as he has made a mild habit of flattening out late in his races. Dangerous with his better stuff.
Race Summary	Palace Revolt could be the second or third choice in here, but I'm hoping that'll leave him mildly playable on the board. I like his local form and think he fits well here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#5 Keystone Hawk	He finished up nicely in that last one and now goes third off the bench today, and I'm hoping a couple of pressing players will help keep the tempo fair enough to give him a chance to pick them up late. Right there with any small step forward again today.
#1 City Tripper	Dull run from him off the bench, but that at least gives him some reasonable upside, and he has the right style to work out a trip from the fence in a race with several pressing and prompting types lined up the rest of the way.
#2 Rocket Dragon	He earned the hike into this spot off the sharp run when getting back over the local footing last time out, and he has the ability to rate just a bit off the splits and let the slightly quicker players sort things out.
Race Summary	Keystone Hawk has some midrange price appeal, and he's coming out of a pretty decent spot last time out in which he finished up nicely -- a peak run third off the bench would do the job.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Samaritano	Thought the local debut was solid enough when rallying on for a share, and I think the race flow may at least be fair enough to give him a chance to finish into the pace a bit better today. Capable.
#8 Count of Amazonia	Not really sure what you're supposed to do with him here on the drop out of a couple modest efforts in Southern California, but he's also not very far removed from some races that would smack these. Red flags, but he may be good enough anyway.
#2 Burnin Turf	He's another getting some class relief here while bringing a somewhat unappealing form trend, but his baseline run fits well. I don't know.
Race Summary	#3 Hari just handled some of these and fits right back, but I just don't have a ton of enthusiasm for the repeat bid, which is kind of the same boat I ended up in with Count of Amazonia and Burnin Turf -- they both fit, but I'm just not excited about them with some questions to answer at likely unappealing prices. Samaritano isn't far off what it would take here based on that last one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:42 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 WILLISTON WARRIOR (3-1)	All signs point to a solid debut, lures Rodriguez.
#6 COMPLICATION (2-1)	Took money off fast gate works in MSW debut, faded on muddy track.
#2 NO MORE CALLS (6-1)	Showed pulse in five-horse debut, meets mostly first-time starters.
Race Summary	WILLISTON WARRIOR is working steadily for a solid barn with first-out maiden claimers and 2-year-olds. Her dam, Bellamentary, was a Maiden Special Weight runner-up and winner in her first two starts and a stakes winner at age 3. Trainer Ed Allard and jockey Jamie Rodriguez are 6-for-15 as a team in the past year with a positive R.O.I. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-6 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#4 SUPER NEEDY (5-1)	Needs some pace flow and a better start than last time, good value play.
#1 GRANTED SUCCESS (5-1)	Been rallying wide, moves outside in, trying to end long winless drought.
#9 ROLLY (12-1)	Led at stretch call in 6 of last 10 starts, mostly at 6F, with two victories.
Race Summary	SUPER NEEDY can be excused for a rough start as the beaten favorite last out, but he had a win and three seconds in his previous four sprints with an average 62 Beyer that translates well in this field. Gomez gets a lot of run from him, so bet to win and place and play a 1-4-9 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#1 BAD TEMPER (4-1)	Must mind manners with rail drop, can return quick claim dividend if she does.
#7 EXTREMELY GRUNTLED (7-2)	Drops, shortens up, two wins in 2025 is more than rivals combined.
#2 LOVING CUP (6-1)	Won twice off four-month layoffs, returns after three months away today.
Race Summary	BAD TEMPER, perhaps appropriately named after ‘lunged …. squeezed … slow start’ trouble lines recently, can upgrade those in-the-money finishes with a clean run from the rail. She sheds 10 pounds and tries to conquer the 6F distance for the first time in 10 tries. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 1	Leg A of the Cross Country Pick 5
Stakes • 1 Mile • Inner Turf • Age 3 • CR: 101 • Purse: $150,000 • Post: 5:03P
WILD APPLAUSE S. SAR - R8 - INNER TURF FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. LASIX NOT ALLOWED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME PURSUANT TO HISA RULE 4212. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $150 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION; $750 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT ORIGINALLY NOMINATED, A SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENT OF $750 IN ADDITION TO THE ENTRY AND STARTING FEES MAY BE MADE AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED 55% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 4% TO FIFTH AND 3% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONGST THE REMAINING FINISHERS. 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADED SWEEPSTAKES ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF A SWEEPSTAKES LIFETIME OR A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE ON THE TURF IN 2025 ALLOWED4 LBS. ANY HORSE ENTERED AS A MAIN TRACK ONLY RUNNER WILL BE ASSIGNED THE HIGH WEIGHT. THE NEW YORK RACING ASSOCIATION RESERVES THE RIGHT TO TRANSFER THIS RACE TO THE MAIN TRACK. A PRESENTATION WILL BE MADE TO THE WINNING OWNER. CLOSED

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CLASSIC Q is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CLASSIC Q: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	CLASSIC Q	4/1	9/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CLASSIC Q	5	4/1	Front-runner	100	104	109.0	93.0	90.5
7	LAVENDER DISASTER	7	5/2	Stalker	82	79	69.8	53.3	41.8
1	FIXIN TO BEE	1	8/1	Trailer	89	90	93.0	92.8	86.3
6	PLAY WITH FIRE	6	9/5	Trailer	90	92	85.9	88.1	82.6
3	ESPECIALLY	3	15/1	Trailer	93	86	79.9	79.9	68.9
8	RUTH	8	4/1	Trailer	82	76	76.2	76.0	61.0
2	LOVE AND POETRY	2	8/1	Trailer	87	82	69.1	77.3	65.8
4	MIDWAY MEMORIES	4	6/1	Trailer	88	85	56.2	81.2	74.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $1 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $12,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $23,800 • Post: 2:41P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 3, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY(CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MISS JEOPARDY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LITERARY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VIN O ROSATO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NO MORE FAKE NEWS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS JEOPARDY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	LITERARY	5/2	7/2
4	VINO ROSATO	4/1	6/1
7	NO MORE FAKE NEWS	5/1	7/1
5	MISS JEOPARDY	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	MISS JEOPARDY	5	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	85	70	39.8	56.9	50.4
7	NO MORE FAKE NEWS	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	68	65.2	70.0	64.5
6	LITERARY	6	5/2	Trailer	92	86	63.0	75.2	69.2
4	VINO ROSATO	4	4/1	Trailer	79	77	61.0	76.2	72.2
2	WICKED BEAUTIFUL	2	7/2	Trailer	72	69	53.8	64.4	54.9
1	GREATEST MOMENT	1	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	75	64	54.0	58.6	49.1
3	MYGALJUSTICE	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	51	47.1	56.2	43.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 97

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD QUARTER HORSES, THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THESE TRIALS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 IMA FANCY EYE OPENER 6/5
# 1 JESSIES FIRST CARD 4/1
# 2 FINN MCOOL 9/2

My choice in this race is IMA FANCY EYE OPENER. Reliable average Speed Figures in short races make this horse a key contender. Looks strong to be up near the front end at the first call. Posted a strong speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. JESSIES FIRST CARD - Should hit the board without a doubt. Overall the speed figures of this equine look strong in this contest. FINN MCOOL - He has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the top in this group of animals.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race #5 - Post: 6:54pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#7 MATILDA'S MARK (ML=5/2)
#8 MYSIDEHUSTLE (ML=2/1)
#1 GUN TWIRL (ML=10/1)
#6 BUZZWORTHY (ML=7/2)

MATILDA'S MARK - I like that most recent outing on June 6th at Lone Star Park where she finished second. Juarez rode this entrant for the initial time last time out and comes right back in today's contest. I believe this horse will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time, so Fincher must have confidence in her. MYSIDEHUSTLE - When the real racing starts, this filly should be finishing best of all. Ran last time around the track against better company at Keeneland. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well. I like this filly. Has the highest earnings per race in here. Young adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a solid chance of improvement. GUN TWIRL - Rider jumped on this filly's back for the first try on June 6th. Should be in touch with the horse even better today. This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Asmussen. BUZZWORTHY - Numerous positive 'sensations' associated with this thoroughbred and her brain trust.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SURELY SWIFT (ML=8/1),

SURELY SWIFT - No wager value on this participant at the likely odds of 8/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #7 MATILDA'S MARK to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,7,8] with [1,7,8] with [1,3,6,7,8] with [1,3,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:35pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,800 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#2 GONE WILD (ML=5/2)

GONE WILD - Correa and Cline perform well when they unite. It's hard to beat a +91 ROI for a jock and trainer. I think the shorter distance will help this gelding stay the distance. Ran last time around the track against a better group of horses at Thistledown. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ENVELOPE PLEASE (ML=8/5), #5 CALCULATED MOVE (ML=7/2), #4 JERICHO TRUMPET (ML=9/2),

ENVELOPE PLEASE - A bit of a lackluster try when this colt finished sixth. CALCULATED MOVE - 51/42/25, are the lessening speed figs for this runner. Earned a pedestrian speed figure in the last race in an Allowance race on June 18th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig. JERICHO TRUMPET - This gelding won last time, but probably won't win today versus tougher competition.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 GONE WILD is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2025, 06:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 71

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 RAGTIME SIZZLE 2/1
# 3 STIRRED UP 4/1
# 5 GOING FOR GLORY 12/1

I think about RAGTIME SIZZLE here. Her 70 average has this filly with among the top speed figs in this race. This filly looks good for this race since Rice has a sharp winning percentage with horses going this distance. Ought to be carefully examined based on the formidable Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last contest. STIRRED UP - Ought to compete admirably in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 69 - of her last outing. GOING FOR GLORY - Have to believe this horse will make a good impression following the quick return to the track. Donk has this filly racing well and is a very good selection based on the respectable Equibase Speed Figures put up in sprint races recently.

Thursday 7/3/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 7/3/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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