Friday 7/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:02 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Narrative - July 4, 2025

July 4, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s Saratoga Narrative
Friday, July 4, 2025
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 4: Post: 2:46 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Play Pick: 5-Profound.
Degree of Confidence: Hopeful.
Savers: none.

Forecast: We’re going to give Profound one more chance under the assumption that a change in strategy will create a form reversal. In his recent comeback, the once well regarded son of Twirling Candy was used on a quick pace but then faded when it mattered in an outing he probably needed, but today, with patient tactics, a significant form reversal is entirely possible. J. Ortiz stays aboard for a barn that does well with the second off a layoff angle, so if taken back and allowed to quicken late this sophomore colt should show his best stuff in just his third career outing in a race that did not come up particularly strong.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race: 8. Post: 4:22 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Play Pick: 2-Shadow Banking
Degree of Confidence: Very good.
Savers: 1-Apalta.; 9-Rebellious Type

Forecast: After racing greenly and losing contact during the early stages in his debut, Shadow Banking , a big, strong, strapping colt, took hold wide into the lane and finished like a freight train when winding up third in a highly promising performance in the mud at The Big A in mid-May and surely can be expected to step forward today with an extra half furlong to work with. F. Prat stays aboard, and the. C. Brown barn hits at an amazing 30% with second time starters, so this 3-year-old son of Maclean’s Music should be able to contribute to the trend. Apalta and Rebellious Type are talented first timers and are worth including on your ticket somewhere just in case our top pick fails to deliver.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 9: Post: 5:45 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Play Pick: 6-Final Gambit
Degree of Confidence: Good.
Savers: 1-Tank; 3-Luther (GB).

Forecast: Final Gambit returns to grass for the first time since his debut and we believe the switch in surface will have a significant impact. The son of Not This Time, winner of the synthetic track J. R. Steaks S-G3 at Turfway Park three races back and a respectable fourth in the subsequent Kentucky Derbty-G1, most recently failed to make an impression when unplaced in the pace-less Matt Winn S. on dirt at Churchill Downs but could snap back in a big way under the nine furlong turf conditions of the Belmont Derby-G1. F. Prat got to know home last time out, stays aboard, and should have this colt within range at the head of the lane. The projected race shape is volatile but the price on the tote should be reasonable.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:02 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 4 Analysis

July 4, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park celebrates July 4th with a compact 10-race card. The 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:15 PM EDT)

2-Rockin Mudslinger (5-1)-Comes off an aggressive try and was used a couple of times to finish 2nd. Comes back in sequence and did roll the last quarter in 26.3. Beat a couple in here last week, will use and look for a big try. Going to fade the 2-1 chalk #1 Chandler Bing and look for a healthy payout in the Pick 4 sequence.
5-Starlit Millertime (8-1)-Comes off the best effort in over a month and was off 2 weeks between starts. This will be a test but can stalk and could finish best of all at a price.
7-Rock Shines Again (5/2)-Trace Tetrick will try to guide the Tyler George trainee to its 6th straight win. This will be a big test but with a smooth trip the streak could continue.

Race 7 (8:38 PM EDT)

1-Airborne Speak (8-1)-Got on the engine in the last start into a 26.4 opening quarter and faded down the lane to finish a beaten 2nd. The price is right to take a swing with this post draw. Doesn't win often but has been tossing hints and could trip out.
5-Bikini Chaser (7/2)-Put in a flat line after breaking in both starts 2 and 3 back. Has fared well at this level and should be in the hunt at the wire if minds its manners.
7-TL Thunder Bolt (5-1)-Beat 4 of these last time and the post helps the price. Could be overlooked and is a threat if lands in a good early seat off the gate.

Race 8 (9:01 PM EDT)

6-Noblesville (4-1)-Comes off a dull try but usual driver Marcus Miller will be at the controls tonight. Will look for the Burke trainee to wake-up and has been in the mix racing against better.
7-Low Rider (7/2)-Recent form over the last month has been dull but came off multiple wins against straight Open company. Similar to the one above, gets a new pilot as Mike Oosting gets the nod and the beaten chalk could make amends at a better price.

Race 9 (9:24 PM EDT)

3-Book The Fight (9/2)-Tetrick will be in between the pipes and he posts 24% winners for the Perry Smith barn. Didn't get the best of trips last time. Could cash the top check with a smoother journey and if the chalk doesn't have its fastball.
4-Deal The Odds (3/2)-Winner of 3 straight will be a tiny price and the race will probably go through the team Putman pupil.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,5,7/1,5,7/6,7/3,4
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:03 AM

Prairie Meadows All-Stakes Pick 3 | Friday, July 4

July 4, 2025 | By Frank Carulli

Prairie Meadows race fans will have a lot to celebrate this Fourth of July weekend. The track’s All-American Extravaganza will feature fireworks after a special 10-race card Thursday (July 3), followed by a two-day Festival of Racing that includes an All-Stakes Pick 3 wager on the July 4 card and the featured $300,000 Iowa Derby on Saturday (July 5). Here’s a look at the Friday Pick 3 lineup of $100,000 stakes:

PrM 7th race (7:38 p.m. EST) -- Five of the eight 2-year-old fillies in the Prairie Golden Lassie arrive from various tracks off front-end victories. SASSY C W is a deserving 8-5 morning-line favorite, earning a one-of-a-kind ‘rocket ship’ comment in her debut win, then conquering stakes rivals at Saratoga under a ‘continued hand-ride’ despite stumbling at the start and breaking last. But KICKIN was visually impressive, too, in her first start, blowing past the 9-5 pace setter on the turn at Hawthorne and exploding in the final sixteenth to win at 4-1/2F by 7-1/4 lengths. She is a must use in the Pick 3 and a good flat bet at anywhere near her 6-1 morning line price. BEST FRIEND rallied into photo-finish view with the dueling favorites, earned the top speed figure in today’s field when finishing third in her Churchill Downs debut and will have plenty of pace to rally into.

PrM 8th race (8:06 p.m. EST) -- There’s little room for error in the Saylorville Stakes that unites seven fillies and mares with a combined 25-for-52 record at 6F. OEUVRE became the field’s lone millionaire with – get this – nine consecutive stakes victories in dirt sprints dating back to 2022. LEGADEMA makes her seasonal debut off a six-week series of workouts at Churchill Downs. She raced only twice since she won a 6F stakes here 14 months ago, finishing third in a pair of 7F tests won by multiple graded stakes-placed fillies Emery (5-11, $867k) and My Mane Squeeze (6-16, $1.15 million). BOURBON BREEZE added blinkers three starts ago and is in top form for her first stakes attempt. She altered course but closed strongly to win an allowance sprint on a muddy Keeneland track, then held off a trio of closers to repeat at Oaklawn Park in 1:10.4, one second off a 3-year-old stakes race for the boys on the same card. CHARLEE MAY is winless the last two years, but she plays to a steady beat and had a good tune-up over the Prairie Meadows dirt, rallying for third and ‘finishing with good response’ while 4-wide in the Prairie Rose Stakes last month.

PrM 9th race (8:34 p.m. EST) -- GLENGARRY ran to a trio of blistering workouts in May, charging furiously in a near miss against a front-end allowance winner two back, then winning the $50,000 Ed Skinner under confident handling for his fourth consecutive stakes win sprinting. SECOND I D set a pressured pace and pulled away to win a 5-1/2F allowance in 1:03-3/5, his first start after two years away. He is a ‘bounce’ candidate but must be respected off that effort with a perfect three-race record intact. REDLINE posted 90-plus Beyer speed figures in his last six starts on a fast track, winning three stakes along the way. The streak ended on a sloppy track in the Speightstown Sprint at Lone Star Park when he rallied from far back for fourth behind a pair of double-digit longshots.

Suggested $1 Pick 3
PrM 7th Race: 5, 7
PrM 8th Race: 3, 4, 5, 6
PrM 9th Race: 1, 6
Cost: $16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:04 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#2 Worth a Bundle	Think something like that even effort last out might do the trick here. A couple of potential forward players may keep the pace at least honest enough, and the price may be just playable.
#1 Halfin	Guess something like that last one makes her a player, but I don't totally trust her to repeat it. Good news is that her two best races both came on synthetic footing, so I suppose that makes her a bit more likely to get right back to it.
#4 Cottage Garden	She's another with an obvious claim on this on overall form, but her best work comes when she gets an easy lead and I'm not sure the stretchout speed drawn just outside of her is going to make that an easy spot for her to be. Capable, but I'm leaning against if the other pace stays in.
Race Summary	Worth a Bundle can be tough in a spot with a couple forward types who should at least give her a fair chance to get past horses late. Second or third-choice price would be interesting enough.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#4 Horsepower	Think he's worth a little price look in a fun race with a lot of contenders. He didn't have the easiest go last time out in a good stakes spot at Aqueduct, and he should find a perfect spot settled just a few lengths off the pace.
#1 Nobals	Breeders' Cup winner is obviously in the frame with anything like his best, and he woke up with a sharp score last time out on the Churchill turf. One of the ones, but I don't think he has to win this.
#2 Ponce de Leon	Thought about this guy on top, and I'd want him on the tickets while trying the beat Nobals. He has done good work here and got a useful comeback run last time out in what felt like a decent spot.
Race Summary	Horsepower and Ponce de Leon both have some midrange price appeal here from tactical/midpack spots. Really fun race though -- consistent riser #3 Busk, 2023 Presque Isle Mile winner #5 Goodie Goomer, and Grade III winner and runner-up in this race last year #7 My Buddy B all add spice.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Channel Me In	You've got a couple pace and tracking types who I assume will flatten late, and that could make for a race flow that advantages a one-paced player like this. A mild step forward in the third start back would keep her in the frame at a price.
#6 Fillyrules	Think she'll find a perfect first-over run today while stretching out, and cutting the price tag in half probably won't hurt the cause either.
#12 High Track	She has proven a good fit with the locals at this kind of level, but she also wasn't a super serious threat to either of those last two winners, and she has already had a fair number of chances. Makes sense, but I'm not sure how excited you're supposed to get to take another modest price.
Race Summary	Think you're supposed to go looking around a little bit in this one. Channel Me In has only gone mildly in recent runs, but the hope is she's sitting on something a bit better in the third start of the season. Inside pace of #1 Slainte Mhath makes me want her on the tickets, too, even though she's way short on excuses at this point.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:04 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Prairie Meadows - Race #4

#6 SPECIALSORTASTORM (4-1)	Has speed, carried it to first win in 22 months, barn 22-94 this year.
#2 TEE OFF TIME (7-2)	Iowa bred closed 3yo season with a bang, had useful comeback try.
#1 APOLLO RISING (5-2)	Slowed by pace, ran second in shorter route race as the favorite.
Race Summary	SPECIALSORTASTORM went solo on a clear lead and held safe the 2-to-1 runner-up and $100k Prairie Meadows earner Iowa Club in a one-mile allowance last out. He could land in a similar role as he tries to carry his speed farther. Bet to win and place and play a 6/1, 2/ALL trifecta.

Prairie Meadows - Race #5

#3 CORNINGSTONE (4-1)	Has five stakes wins and two graded placings going a route of ground.
#1 HOOSIER PHILLY (9-5)	Millionaire and G-2 distance winner debuts locally off fast works at Churchill.
#2 INSENSITIVE (5-1)	Earned top speed fig of career in minor stakes win, breezed in :46-4/5 Saturday.
Race Summary	CORNINGSTONE, a $500,000 earner with a 15/4-4-2 mark in long-distance races, was in striking range but lacked stretch kick in the Grade 3 Shawnee at Churchill Downs, her first start in four months. The upset winner, Royal Spa, came back to finish second on the front end in a Grade 2 marathon last Saturday. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3 exacta box.

Prairie Meadows - Race #10

#5 SHAN’S QUEST (7-2)	Showed promise, needs to temper ‘keyed up’ behavior in second start.
#4 BAMTWENTYKLATER (5-2)	Just missed after long duel with odds-on firster in three-horse field.
#1 VICTORIAN SECRET (8-1)	Shows three bullet workouts for seasonal debut, gets Lasix.
Race Summary	SHAN’S QUEST, headstrong while opening a long lead in a debut long sprint on turf, gave way to a trio of deep closers. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter on dirt and the barn is in the midst of an 8-for-25 run on the turf-to-dirt angle. Bet to win and place and play a 5-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:06 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso Downs
PURCHASE

Ruidoso Downs - Race 9	Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta/1st Leg .50 Pick 4 / 3rd Leg Pick 3
Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 4:20P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2025 ZIA QUARTER HORSE FUTURITY. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. LATE NOMINATIONS OF $15,000 (INCLUDES ALL FEES) WILL BE ACCEPTED UNTIL TIME OF ENTRY INTO TRIALS. THE TEN FASTEST TIMES FROM THE TRIALS WILL QUALIFY FOR THE FINAL. THERE WILL BE NO ALSO ELIGIBLE LIST FOR THE FINALS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * KING OF THE TIDE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SYA NA RRA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	KING OF THE TIDE	5/2	2/1
2	SYA NARRA	10/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	KING OF THE TIDE	1	5/2	Fast	87	84	2.7	0.0	0.0
2	SYA NARRA	2	10/1	Fast	74	70	2.7	0.0	0.0
4	FLASHY BIG DADDY	4	10/1	Average	60	68	4.9	0.0	0.0
5	KING OF THE RODE	5	7/2	Slow	0	0	6.8	0.0	0.0
6	SAFAERA	6	30/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	8.8	0.0	0.0
7	FORBIDDEN WINES	7	4/1	Fast/Trouble-prone	74	59	2.9	0.0	0.0
8	START SOMETHING BIG	8	6/1	Fast	75	62	2.9	0.0	0.0
9	THREE SHEETS GONE	9	8/1	Average	0	0	5.9	0.0	0.0
10	RC DADDYS DREAM	10	30/1	Average/Trouble-prone	74	53	5.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: MS KATMANDO (20/1) [Jockey: Levario Jesse Lee - Trainer: Soto Jr Jesus].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:06 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town
PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 1	EARLY NO CARRYOVER PICK 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5) / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Daily Double (Races 1-2) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $12,400 • Post: 7:00P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. NO WVB CLAUSE.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BRD COMPUTING is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BRD COMPUTING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's av erage winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). KISSLING: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. H orse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	BRD COMPUTING	5/1	9/5
4	KISSLING	2/5	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	BRD COMPUTING	5	5/1	Front-runner	77	69	71.2	62.0	56.0
4	KISSLING	4	2/5	Alternator/Stalker	73	62	78.0	56.4	51.9
2	MINELLA	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	60	31.0	54.8	47.8
3	DISCREET DEVIL	3	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	73	61	78.0	49.6	45.1
6	DUBLSHOTOFCOURAGE	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	63	63.2	48.2	40.2
1	ROBBEDINTHEBAHAMAS	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	68	30.8	50.8	42.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:07 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #2 - Post: 2:28pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 103

Rating:

#3 AWESOME FLAY (ML=3/1)
#2 AUTO GLIDE (ML=2/1)
#4 BOSS LOGIC (ML=5/2)

AWESOME FLAY - A campaigner coming back this rapidly after a nice contest is a good sign. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. Just look at his recent speed rating, 103. That one fits well in this bunch. AUTO GLIDE - When a thoroughbred finishes on the board as often as this horse does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. Another way to judge class is EPS (earnings per start). This horse has the topmost in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the end. BOSS LOGIC - Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this gelding should run well off the layoff.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KHOZEIRESS (ML=6/1), #5 ANTIGRAVITY (ML=6/1), #1 BROOKLYN GUY (ML=8/1),

KHOZEIRESS - Had to give me more than that last time out. Never made much of an impact. Run-of-the-mill speed rating in the last race at Gulfstream Park at 7 furlongs. Don't feel this racer will improve too much in today's race. ANTIGRAVITY - This equine doesn't have a winner's temperament. Frequently finishes close, but no cigar. BROOKLYN GUY - This runner ran a mediocre speed figure last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's event running that figure. A 'performance bounce' is likely to happen for this horse this time around. May rebound next time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 AWESOME FLAY on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:07 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 4 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 4 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 MN BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 LITE RANCHIN KID 4/1
# 5 MINISTER OF SOUL 4/1
# 8 CINCO MAJESTIC 8/1

LITE RANCHIN KID looks very good to best this field. Valdez will almost certainly be able to get this gelding to break out early in this competition. This gelding has some longshot angles I like to bet on. He should have a good showing versus this softer bunch. MINISTER OF SOUL - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field lately. Must be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. CINCO MAJESTIC - Has been running soundly lately and will most likely be up on the lead early on. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:07 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Futurity Consolation - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 73

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH FAILED TO QUALIFY FROM TRIALS FOR THE FIRECRACKER FUTURITY. PREFERENCE BY FASTEST NON-QUALIFYING TIMES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 MERCURIO 5/2
# 1 CAMILA GIRL 7/2
# 9 YOU TUBER 6/1

MERCURIO looks very strong to best this field. With a sound 67 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. May best this group of horses in this race here, showing formidable figs of late. The average class rating of 67 makes this entrant difficult to beat. CAMILA GIRL - Her 64 average has this filly with among the most competitive speed figures in this race. A solid 73 avg Equibase class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this field. YOU TUBER - Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last competition. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:08 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #10 - Post: 8:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,500 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#4 BAMTWENTYKLATER (ML=5/2)

BAMTWENTYKLATER - You always have to be on the patrol for revenue generating jockey/handler tandems; we have an instance right here. This thoroughbred could be tough today, especially since Gonzalez rode last out and now should be better acquainted with this one. Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should be aided by today's shorter trip.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MISS CLASSIFIED (ML=3/1), #5 SHAN'S QUEST (ML=7/2), #6 TEATOTAL (ML=5/1),

MISS CLASSIFIED - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot. SHAN'S QUEST - 7/2 is not worth it for any animal in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance contest lately. TEATOTAL - Tough to play this racer this time around. Make her show you something in a sprint race before you bet on her in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. This racer ran a quite unimpressive rating last time around the track. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's race running that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BAMTWENTYKLATER - My historical data shows that fillies often run much better 2nd time on Lasix. That's the case for this one, so I think she should run very, very well today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 BAMTWENTYKLATER is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 07:08 AM

Belmont Park at Saratoga Hotlist - July 4

Jul. 03, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [Schuylerville, 6F] – (5) Miss Magical (B) was second in her debut behind a Todd Pletcher and Repole Stable first-time starter but was well clear of the rest of the field. (4) My Sweetheart is one of only two horses in this stakes field that isn’t a maiden. She was a first out winner at 5-1 in a turf sprint at Churchill Downs in May for Mark Casse. (1) Evolution broke her maiden in her second try at Gulfstream Park as the 1-1 favorite. (3) Bay Yaupon will try and win a juvenile stakes in her first try for Gary Contessa who did that very thing last year.
4^th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (4) Orgonite (B) was keen and had to be steadied early in his second start and finished fourth in a full field. (9) Vintage Vino will make his 2025 debut after three second-place finishes last summer and fall. (7) Tom Collins has four top three finishes in his eight starts. (6) Your Lordship joins the barn of Graham Motion from England where he hit the board three times. He will get first-time Lasix.
7^th race [Md Sp Wt, 6 ? F] – (3) Shadow Banking (A) broke slowly, got far back, climbed on a muddy track, and rallied for third as the only first-time starter in the field. (1) Worthy Charge and (1A) Rebellious Type make an entry of well-bred first-time starters for St. Elias Stable and partners. (2) Apalta is training sharply for his debut for Todd Pletcher and West Point Thoroughbreds. (6) Fort Nelson is one of the three horses with racing experience in the field along with the top choice.
10^th race [Suburban (G2), 1 ? mi] – (4) Locked is the only Grade 1 winner in the field of eight with victories at distances from seven to ten furlongs. (8) Awesome Aaron is in the best form of his career as a 6-year-old after a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure wins in an allowance and the Pimlico Special (G3). (6) Honor Marie won a 12-furlong stakes at Churchill Downs and will have no trouble with the distance whereas others will. (5) Bendoog won an Aqueduct allowance after four second-place finishes in a row.
Best bets: Shadow Banking (7^th); Locked (10^th). Best value: Orgonite (4^th); Miss Magical (2^nd).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(5)	Miss Magical	B on 6/8	2	Second in debut behind an impressive winner.
(4)	Orgonite	B on 6/6	4	Keen and he got steadied in second start.
(3)	Shadow Banking	A on 5/15	7	Broke slowly, climbed from muddy kickback, ran third.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 01:06 PM

Los Alamitos Tip Sheet - July 4

Jul. 04, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:00 PM ET
$25,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Claiming

Win	9-2	1	Uncle Evco	T J Pereira
Place	6-1	2	Kid Dynasty	A Ayuso
Show	5-2	4	Brother Tony	D A Herrera
Wild card	4-1	6	Nassau Circle	K Kimura
Alternate 1	7-2	7	My Hero	A Espinoza
Alternate 2	6-1	5	Travail	J Valdivia Jr.

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:28 PM ET
Best Bet #3 HONORABLE GAL
$23,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	3-1	3	Honorable Gal	R S Ramirez
Place	8-1	5	Eboks Dream Girl	D A Herrera
Show	2-1	4	Rose of Jericho	T J Pereira
Wild card	7-2	7	Gypsy Lynn	A Aguilar
Alternate 1	4-1	6	Shanghai Sunrise	E Payeras
Alternate 2	10-1	1	Lady Run	H R Lopez

Exacta 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:58 PM ET
Best Bet #2 FIRE ILE
$23,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Claiming

Win	2-1	2	Fire Ile	A Ayuso
Place	3-1	5	Tinas Princess	E Hernandez
Show	7-2	4	Omemgee	D A Herrera
Wild card	4-1	6	Lady Victoria	W R Orantes
Alternate 1	8-1	7	If Not for Cas	K Frey
Alternate 2	10-1	1	Just Tap It	P Flores

Exacta 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:30 PM ET
Best Bet #1 STELLAR CAP
$17,000.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	5-2	1	Stellar Cap	A L Bautista
Place	6-1	4	Im a Risque Girl	S Carmona
Show	9-5	6	Shes Just Fluffy	A Ayuso
Wild card	4-1	7	Lady of Sky	S Barandela
Alternate 1	6-1	2	Misty Dancer	W R Orantes
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Violet Storm	T J Pereira

Exacta 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:05 PM ET
$27,000.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	7-2	6	Trotsky	K Frey
Place	9-2	5	Arabian Flirt	R S Ramirez
Show	4-1	9	Distant Fleet	S Barandela
Wild card	8-1	8	James J. Braddock	E Payeras
Alternate 1	3-1	3	Unbreakable Trust	A Ayuso
Alternate 2	6-1	2	General Jackson	T J Pereira

Exacta 6-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/9 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:35 PM ET
$15,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-2	8	Co Heart	J Valdivia Jr.
Place	8-5	5	Tapatia Leah	A Aguilar
Show	8-1	1	Lucky C	A Escobedo
Wild card	9-2	2	Rockford Peach	D A Herrera
Alternate 1	8-1	9	Smoove Over	E Hernandez
Alternate 2	15-1	6	Riqueza	A L Bautista

Exacta 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/8 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 07:05 PM ET
$47,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	2	Stamp My Passport	D A Herrera
Place	9-2	1	Carver	T Baze
Show	6-1	4	Jimmy Blue Jeans	K Frey
Wild card	5-2	8	Feel the Magic	K Kimura
Alternate 1	8-1	5	Tessuto	J Laprida
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Sixhoofsevenhoof	D Cohen

Exacta 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:38 PM ET
$46,000.00

Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	7	Grazed	G Franco
Place	7-2	8	Mio Bambino	K Frey
Show	9-2	5	Shortman	A Aguilar
Wild card	9-2	10	Yo Time	E A Maldonado
Alternate 1	8-1	3	Three Georges	T Baze
Alternate 2	8-1	4	Lil Nas	A Ayuso

Exacta 7-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX
Trifecta 5/7/8 BOX, 5/8/10 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:06 PM ET
$15,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Claiming

Win	9-2	7	Devine Marina	K Kimura
Place	4-1	8	Lena Lindgard	D Chavez
Show	3-1	3	Dance Ella Dance	A Espinoza
Wild card	7-2	4	Bottom Dollar	T J Pereira
Alternate 1	6-1	9	My Eliana	G Franco
Alternate 2	9-2	2	Aryas Ride	J Laprida

Exacta 7-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/7/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 01:06 PM

Belmont Park at Saratoga Tip Sheet - July 4

Jul. 04, 2025

Race #1
Inner turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:10 PM ET
Best Bet #7 ANNELLE
$110,000.00

Race 1 Allowance

Win	9-2	7	Annelle	L Saez
Place	7-2	5	Vino Rouge	J L Ortiz
Show	3-1	1	Miss Mottley	F Prat
Wild card	5-2	4	Awesome Czech	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 1	12-1	3	Any Port	J Lezcano
Alternate 2	4-1	9	Shes Cool	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/7 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:42 PM ET
Best Commentary $150,000 SCHUYLERVILLE
$150,000.00

Race 2 Stakes

Win	3-1	2	Kingsolver	F Prat
Place	2-1	4	My Sweetheart	L Dettori
Show	7-2	1	Evolution	L Saez
Wild card	4-1	5	Miss Magical	D Davis
Alternate 1	9-2	6	Simone	M Franco
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Bay Yaupon	J Alvarado

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: KINGSOLVER had some issues on debut and looks ready to go for start two. MY SWEETHEART won on debut with speed and will be dangerous again. EVOLUTION has looked good in first two starts and should be around at the end. MISS MAGICAL is a must use for exotics.
Race #3
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:14 PM ET
$115,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	8-5	6	War Stride	F Prat
Place	9-2	5	Magnolia Midnight	M Franco
Show	4-1	1	Acoustic Ave	D Davis
Wild card	7-2	2	Over and Ollie	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	4-1	1A	Sheriff Bianco	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	4-1	4	Shadow Dragon	J Castellano

Exacta 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
Race #4
Inner turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:46 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	9-2	9	Vintage Vino	J Lezcano
Place	6-1	2	Roger Roger	F Prat
Show	8-1	5	Profound	J Ortiz
Wild card	3-1	8	Dirand	M Franco
Alternate 1	7-2	7	Tom Collins	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	4-1	6	Your Lordship	O Murphy

Exacta 9-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/9 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:18 PM ET
Best Bet #7 FRANTIC
$46,000.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	9-2	7	Frantic	R Santana Jr.
Place	7-5	6	Ranger Battalion	J L Ortiz
Show	7-2	4	Tiote	M Franco
Wild card	5-1	5	Awesome Empire	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	15-1	3	Swift Bank	S Bridgmohan
Alternate 2	8-1	2	Enduring Spirit	K Carmouche

Exacta 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
Trifecta 4/6/7 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
Race #6
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:50 PM ET
$90,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	1	Irish Goodbye	F Prat
Place	4-1	2	Nowucme Nowudont	R Santana Jr.
Show	8-1	3	Mo Dodgy	J Ortiz
Wild card	7-2	6	Minorinconvenience	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	5-1	7	Santinni	M Franco
Alternate 2	6-1	10	Natural Shooter	R TBA

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:22 PM ET
Best Bet #1 WORTHY CHARGE
$100,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	2-1	1	Worthy Charge	D Davis
Place	7-2	2	Apalta	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	9-2	6	Fort Nelson	J Alvarado
Wild card	8-1	5	Subito	J Lezcano
Alternate 1	3-1	3	Shadow Banking	F Prat
Alternate 2	2-1	1A	Rebellious Type	J Velazquez

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #8
Inner turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:07 PM ET
Best Commentary $200,000 MANILLA STAKES GIII
$200,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	6-5	4	Zulu Kingdom	F Prat
Place	7-2	5	Reagans Wit	J L Ortiz
Show	10-1	10	Strate Cash	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	8-1	6	Uncatalyzed	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	12-1	7	Revolutionnaire	J Rosario
Alternate 2	12-1	8	Capitol Hill	J R Velazquez

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX
COMMENTS: ZULU KINGDOM looks like the class and tough to beat here. REAGANS WIT would be the other horse if you think the favorite can be beat. STRATE CASH has only one career start so there is value here. UNCATALYZED is another with a lot of potential.
Race #9
Turf 1 1/8 Mile - Post Time: 05:45 PM ET
Best Commentary $750,000 BELMONT DERBY STAKES GI
$750,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	4-1	5	Test Score	M Franco
Place	5-2	6	Final Gambit	F Prat
Show	10-1	7	World Beater	J Torres
Wild card	3-1	4	New Century [GB]	O Murphy
Alternate 1	6-1	3	Luther	K Shoemark
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Tank	L Saez

Exacta 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
COMMENTS: TEST SCORE is the consistent type who looks good here. FINAL GAMBIT returns the turf and should like it. WORLD BEATER gets a test here but there is value if good enough. NEW CENTURY will be around at the end.
Race #10
Dirt 1 1/4 Miles - Post Time: 06:19 PM ET
Best Commentary $400,000 SUBURBAN STAKES GII
$400,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	5-1	1	Phileas Fogg	K Carmouche
Place	4-1	7	Antiquarian	J R Velazquez
Show	8-5	4	Locked	J L Ortiz
Wild card	7-2	8	Awesome Aaron	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Disarm	J Rosario
Alternate 2	12-1	5	Bendoog	J Lezcano

Exacta 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/7 BOX, 4/7/8 BOXCOMMENTS: PHILEAS FOGG will try and steal this from the rail with the speed and Carmouche aboard. ANTIQUARIAN is the consistent type who will get a nice stalking trip from the outside. LOCKED is the class and will be rolling late. AWESOME AARON is another with speed.
Race #11
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:51 PM ET
Best Commentary $150,000 HARVEY PACK STAKES
$150,000.00

Race 11 Stakes

Win	4-1	6	Works for Me	F Prat
Place	6-1	5	Outlaw Kid	M Franco
Show	5-1	7	Felix	J Velazquez
Wild card	5-1	10	Witty	D Davis
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Mischievous Angel	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	8-1	9	Bring Theband Home	J Castellano

Exacta 6-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/7 BOX, 5/7/10 BOX
COMMENTS: WORKS FOR ME keeps getting better is consistent and has Prat aboard. OUTLAW KID has speed likes the distance and track. FELIX should get a nice stalking trip and be right there. WITTY is always a must use with a huge late kick.