Saturday 7/5/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 04:19 PM

Keeneland Select Picks of the Day | July 5, 2025

Jul. 04, 2025

Race 10 at Saratoga | Saturday, July 5 | Post Time 5:38 PM Eastern
Kelso Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $175,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward
Top contender: Think Big (3)
Other contenders: Neat (1), Mountain Bear (6), Donegal Momentum (4), Nantasket Beach (5)
Think Big (3) drops in class after a troubled seventh-place effort in the much tougher Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes four weeks ago on this course. He was sent to post as the 6 to 5 favorite on the heels of two straight graded stakes wins, in the Shakertown in April and in the Turf Sprint on Derby Day in May. Jockey Ben Curtis had ridden the horse to all five of his wins to that point, in nine races, including the two stakes wins, but I the Jaipur Think Big had a very awkward start then was wide and did not show the form he had going back to last September. Curtis is replaced by Jose Ortiz for the Kelso, and no knock-on Curtis, but this is a very positive change considering how familiar Ortiz is with this course. Think Big has never run two-turns on grass previously but is bred for the distance in spades and the 108 and 113 Equibase Speed Figure efforts earned in the Shakertown and Turf Sprint are very good and would be very competitive in this field if repeated, so he gets top billing.
Neat (1) may offer some value, particularly for exacta tickets played, as he did not finish in his last race and finished fourth, sixth, seventh and third in four races prior to that. In that last race, the Dinner Party Stakes on Preakness day, Neat had stalked a head off the lead for the first half mile before he was steadied and taken up sharply to avoid falling, losing all chance. Last August, Neat won the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes at this distance over this inner turf course at Saratoga, under Junior Alvarado, who did not ride the colt in his last three races but returns to the saddle today for a potential return to top form. Considering the colt’s record is six for 14, with no seconds or thirds, and three of those wins were in stakes, Neat may be a horse worthy of a few dollars to win at more than decent odds.
Mountain Bear (6) finished a decent second of 11 in a highly rated allowance race at Churchill Downs, won by Nantasket Beach (5), with Mountain Bear possibly having potential to leapfrog over his rival as he had been away from the races for nearly eight months prior to that. Nantasket Beach was winning for the second time in a row, and for his fourth in his last five races, in that May 25 race, and has potential to run competitively on the step up in class today. Donegal Momentum (4) won the Grade 3 Poker Stakes last month and now has five wins in 10 races. Castellano has been aboard for all his “A” races and another one would be no surprise in this situation.
Win Bets: Think Big (3) can be considered for a win bet at 8 to 5 odds or more.
Neat (1) could offer upset potential and can be considered for a win bet at 7 to 2 odds or higher.
Exactas:
Think Big (3) over Neat (1), Donegal Momentum (4), Nantasket Beach (5) and Mountain Bear (6)
Neat (1) and Think Big (3) over Neat (1), Think Big (3), Donegal Momentum (4), Nantasket Beach (5) and Mountain Bear (6)
Race 11 at Saratoga | Saturday, July 5 | Post Time 6:13 PM Eastern
Belmont Oaks Invitational – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old
Top contenders: May Day Ready (6), Nitrogen (7)
Other contender: Totally Justified (3), Fionn (5)
The first time May Day Ready (6) and Nitrogen (7) faced each other was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last November. May Day Ready went to post at 13-1 odds based on her winning the Jessamine Stakes one month earlier for her third straight win in three career starts. Nitrogen went to post at nearly 50-1 odds, owing to the fact she was still a maiden with two starts under her belt. Nitrogen had missed by a neck in her career debut at a mile on grass in August then finished third in the Natalma Stakes in September. In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, May Day Ready rallied from 12^th of 14 at the start to finish second, beaten one and one-half lengths, while Nitrogen rallied from 12^th after three quarters of a mile to get third, one length behind May Day Ready. For those efforts, May Day Ready earned a 111 Equibase Speed Figure while Nitrogen earned a 110 figure.
After that, May Day Ready travelled half-way across the world to compete in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies Stakes in Japan, finishing 12^th of 18 when well-regarded at 8-1 odds. Taking six months off, May Day Ready returned in the Wonder Again Stakes four weeks ago at Saratoga, a race scheduled for grass but run on dirt, and decimated by scratches such that only three horses ran. Nitrogen won that race by 17 lengths over runner-up Bessie Abbott, with May Day Ready another eight lengths back. However, May Day Ready needed the race following six months off, and the effort shouldn’t be used to assess her chances to win the Belmont Oaks Invitational as it is obvious her connections were always pointing for this race as well as the Wonder Againwas the best way to prepare her for this one. Considering the talent shown last summer and fall and that she beat Nitrogen the only time previously where they faced each other on grass, May Day Ready gets slight preference in terms of probability to win this year’s Belmont Oaks Invitational.
After the Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall, Nitrogen won four races in a row, all stakes, including the Appalachian Stakes this past April where she earned a 108Equibase Speed Figure close to the 110 figure from the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Returning one month later in the Edgewood Stakes, Nitrogen won easily by three and one-half lengths, earning a 99 figure which could have been higher had she needed to run harder. Next came the Wonder Again, where Nitrogen stalked the pacesetter for the first half mile then took over and coasted home with a 105 figure. She certainly could have run faster than that as she was geared down in the stretch, and if she improves back to the form shown last fall, we could see quite a battle between her and May Day Ready in this race.
Totally Justified (3) missed by a nose to May Day Ready last fall in the Jessamine Stakes but ran poorly when eighth in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at odds of 47-1. Following five months off, she faded to fifth after pressing the pace in second in the early stages of the Appalachian but returned to competitive form last month when second in the Regret Stakes, run at the distance of the Belmont Oaks Invitational. In that race, Totally Justified moved up from third to second after three-quarters of a mile, then made the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, before being passed by Fionn and ending up second, beaten a half-length. This being her third start off a layoff, Totally Justified is going to be tougher to pass in the stretch than in her last race, and so she can improve off that 105 figure effort to likely have a say in the outcome in this race as well.
Fionn (5) earned a career best 106 figure when winning the Regret Stakes last month at the distance of this race. She has now won four of six races and has room to run similarly well. On the other hand, when considering the Regret was a Grade 3 race and that May Day Ready and Nitrogen are Grade 2 stakes winners, and Totally Justified missed by a nose in a Grade 2 race (the Jessamine) last fall as well as can improve third off the layoff, I think Fionn is just a cut below the top trio.
Win Bets: I would bet May Day Ready (6) or Nitrogen (7), whichever is the higher odds of the pair, to win at 3 to 2 or more.
I might also consider a win bet on Totally Justified (3) or on Fionn (5) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
May Day Ready (6) and Nitrogen (7) over May Day Ready (6), Nitrogen (7), Totally Justified (3) and Fionn (5)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 04:20 PM

Belmont Park at Saratoga Hotlist - July 5

Jul. 04, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
4^th race [Alw 110000, 7F] – (1) Points Is Points (A) was jostled out of the gate, swapped leads during the stretch duel, and missed by a nose while 12 lengths ahead of the show horse. (3) Ragtime (A) was a rare debut winner for Bill Mott by almost four lengths. (4) Artemis Sound won twice this year in a N2L claimer and a starter allowance and in May was second in a first-level allowance. (5) Alyeska was a debut winner last year in September at Churchill Downs, changes barns to Chad Brown, and gets first-time Lasix for her second start.
10^th race [Kelso (G2), 1 mi TURF] – (2) Intellect (A) got squeezed back at the start and rallied from last to second in the Poker (G3) for Chad Brown. (4) Donegal Momentum won the Poker (G3) last month at Saratoga with a front-end trip. (8) Win for the Money was last seen running seventh in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1). Before that he won the Fort Lauderdale (G2) and the Woodbine Mile (G1). (3) Think Big will stretch out from a series of turf sprints that includes four victories.
11^th race [Belmont Oaks (G1), 1 1/8 mi TURF] – (2) Opulent Restraint (C) was second by a neck in the Memories of Silver at Aqueduct after a prolonged stretch duel behind a horse that is undefeated in four starts. (7) Nitrogen is riding a five race win-streak all in stakes this year and includes four graded stakes. (6) May Day Ready is a $1 million earner who won his first three starts and then was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. (5) Fionn has 4 wins from 6 career starts all since September and won the Regret (G3) last month.
12^th race [NY, Md 30000, 6 ? F] – (10) Kings and Queens (B) took an awkward step early in the race and rallied gamely for second well clear of the rest. (11) Capt Jax Parrow was third and then second in similar spots in his last two races. (7) Solo Mio comes back as a new gelding, cuts back in distance, and drops back in for a tag where last seen ran second. (3) Mama’s Middie was second last month in his 2025 debut in a Finger Lakes maiden special weight and was second last summer at Saratoga in a spot like today’s.
Best bets: Points Is Points (4^th); Intellect (10^th). Best value: Opulent Restraint (11^th); Kings and Queens (12^th).
Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 10-12 and includes the Kelso (G2) and Belmont Oaks (G1) ? 2, 4, 8 with 2, 5, 6, 7 with 3, 10, 11 = $36.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1)	Points Is Points	A on 2/6	4	Last seen in February, he missed winning by a nose.
(3)	Ragtime	A on 6/6	4	A rare debut winner for Bill Mott.
(3)	Backcheck	A on 6/13	5	Broke very slowly and rallied to win.
(2)	Intellect	A on 6/5	10	Squeezed back at start and rallied to second in a Grade 3.
(2)	Opulent Restraint	C on 4/27	11	Second by a neck after a long stretch duel.
(10)	Kings and Queens	B on 6/21	12	Took an awkward stride early and got up for second.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 04:20 PM

Monmouth Park Hotlist - July 5

Jul. 04, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (7) Man With the Money was a good second in his debut at Delaware and should graduate here. (6) Trulli Warrior gets back on turf and is worth a look. (8) Amoudi Bay is an interesting firster. (5) Big Ern McCracken fits in with these. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-7-8.
3rd race – (5) Magical Road had trouble at the start and never fired. Switches to Paco and can rebound here. (7) Jades Jay has speed and could be tough to catch. (4) Hatmaker Gizmo may bounce back with a better try here. (6) Run for Your Life should be closing at the end. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-6-7.
6th race – (8) Riding Pretty returns to turf and looks best in this field. (7) Precious Avary adds blinkers and looks like a main threat. (6) Bel Pensiero cannot be ignored in this field. (2) Molly’s a Bullet should like the added distance. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-6-7-8.
8th race – (2) Unbounded Movement returns to turf and could notch a win on the front end. (6) Bazzarina was second in her last two starts and can make it three straight. (7) Southampton Dock figures to be closing in the late stages. (9) Hala Blue can rebound with a good effort on turf. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-6-7-9. Doubles: 2-6-7-9 with 1-3-4-6.
9th race – (1) Corrib Queen has speed from the rail and may not look back. (4) Vivid Artiste looks like the one to fear. (6) My Lady Bae may wake up on dirt. (3) Mi Bella Genio may contend despite the layoff. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-6.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 04:21 PM

Scott Shapiro: IN Derby Day Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Analysis

July 3, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

This week features a few new promotions at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet, including yet another Hit & Split opportunity on a big Saturday afternoon card. This week the focus is the late Pick 4 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which includes both the Indiana Oaks (G3) and the featured Indiana Derby (G3). $2500 is up for grabs for those who register for the sequence kicks off with an Indiana-bred stake in Race 10 (5:16 PM eastern) and concludes with a MSW over the sod. Let’s get to it.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 10: Ellen’s Lucky Star
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Hoosier Promise; 4 Off Pitch
Backups: 2 Sorry Not Sorry; 10 Innisfree Lass

Forecast: A full-field two-turn turf race for Indiana-bred fillies kicks things off where #4 Off Pitch was made the significant 5-2-ML favorite after almost besting a field of open company allowance foes at odds of 75-1 on June 23. The Mo Town filly ran her faster career race on the surface switch and did so against stronger competition than she encounters today, but I am leery of going all-in with her. She not only is coming back quickly, but it feels like last time was the time to bet her at that massive price.

#7 Hoosier Promise will offer far greater value and is likely to be a Win bet for me if she holds close to her 12-1-morning line offering. The Mitole filly stretched out to a route of ground for the first time on June 16 in a race originally scheduled for the grass. It was moved to the main track where trainer Anthony Granitz added blinkers for the initial time as well. This led to a career best effort and a win going away. There is some versatile pedigree on the dam side leading me to believe this gal is quite live at double-digit odds.

Race 11: Indiana Oaks (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Clicquot
Backups: 1 Sturgeon Moon

Forecast: This year’s Indiana Oaks features a rematch between the top two finishers from a first-level allowance event run at Churchill Downs at the end of May. #5 Heavenly Sunset was slightly favored over #2 Clicquot, but it was Clicquot proving much the best despite just a decent break from the gate. Clicquot is likely to be the public choice in Shelbyville on Saturday afternoon and deservingly so. She beat the Brad Cox trainee on the square 5 weeks ago, draws favorably along the rail, and is my non-creative top choice.
#1 Sturgeon Moon tries graded stakes foes in her first start for trainer Will Walden. The Instagrand filly ran some big races under the care of Paulo Lobo as a 2YO and comes in off a strong series of drills at Keeneland for a barn clicking at 25% on the year. If she is ready to fire fresh, she is far from impossible.

Race 12: Indiana Derby (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Big Truzz
Backups: 3 Coal Battle

Forecast: #3 Coal Battle brings the strongest resume into this year’s Indiana Derby. The Lonnie Briley trainee rattled off 4 straight wins last fall and winter, but was outrun in his two Grade 1 tries. He tried hard to the wire chasing lone speed East Avenue in the Matt Winn (G3) suggesting he has plenty of fight left in him. He is in with his best shot since the winter starts in Arkansas and should run his race, but I prefer #7 Big Truzz. The son of Justify heads into his first two-turn start just 1 for 3, but the losses both came to the serious one-turn Brad Cox trainee Patch Adams. This colt has a ton of untapped talent and is bred to handle the added ground. I hope he lives up to my expectations.

Race 13:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Casso Hill; 7 Run Lily
Backups: 1 Elite Heat

Forecast: The sequence concludes with a MSW for fillies and mares at 1 1/16-miles over the Horseshoe Indy sod where #1 Elite Heat is likely to take a ton of money. The Brad Cox trainee is owned by Myracehorse and has gone off at odds of 5-2 in all three of her starts to date. She comes in off a runner-up effort to a Chad Brown second-time starter at Tampa Bay and has the strongest resume, but I do not trust her. So, I will opt to lean on a pair of less proven commodities.

#5 Casso Hill is a first-time starter for the aforementioned Will Walden barn. The Oxo Equine homebred is out of a War Front mare that ran second going long on the grass at Belmont Park in her debut and comes in off a steady series of fitness drills. Walden legs up Hall of Famer John Velazquez. I will also use #7 Run Lily on all tickets. The Doug Cowans trainee has not raced in 13 months, but put in a pair of solid efforts over this course when we saw her last. She is another filly capable of springing the upset if she is fit off the extended break.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2025, 04:22 PM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Kelso at Saratoga

July 2, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Named for the famed, 5-time Horse of the Year, the Kelso Stakes has made Saratoga its home since 2023. This Saturday it's part of a July 4 Racing Festival lineup that co-features the Sanford Stakes and the Belmont Oaks Invitational. The Kelso goes as Race 10 of 12 and will be at a mile on turf.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet earn 5X 1/ST Rewards Points on all wagers made during the July 4 Racing Festival at Saratoga, Thursday through Sunday.

Field Depth:
This lineup is overqualified for the Grade 3 level. Grade 1 winner WIN FOR THE MONEY is joined by Grade 2 winners THINK BIG, NEAT and ARZAK, the latter Grade 1-placed. DONEGAL MOMENTUM is a Grade 3 winner, who joins MOUNTAIN BEAR as Grade 1-placed contenders.

Pace:
DONEGAL MOMENTUM could be lone speed in a field that doesn't have much other early pace projection. WIN FOR THE MONEY could be more forward than most here, while stretch-out sprinters THINK BIG and ARZAK haven't shown speed going shorter, but might be more inclined around 2 turns.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-NEAT: Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes winner over this course last summer, the Rob Atras trainee has lost 5 in a row since. Form further clouded by failing to complete the course in traffic in Pimlico's Dinner Party in May. Reunites with Junior Alvarado, who guided him to 2 stakes wins in 2024.

#2-INTELLECT: French export has 2 minor placings since joining Chad Brown's shedrow, including a runner-up in the Grade 3 Poker as the favorite last out behind Kelso rival Donegal Momentum. Fast pace or slow, he hasn't finished with as much flair as needed since stretching out around 2 turns and was a 1-turn specialist overseas. Good draw under Flavien Prat for this, however.

#3-THINK BIG: All 5 turf starts have come in sprints, winning 4 of those, for trainer Mike Stidham. Hot-riding Jose Ortiz is coming off a huge Churchill Downs title-winning meet. Broke poorly only Saratoga try, but didn't do anything thereafter in the Grade 1 Jaipur, leaving some concern about course affinity. Failed around 2 turns on dirt at Keeneland in only such non-sprint try.

#4-DONEGAL MOMENTUM: Wire-to-wire winner of the Poker Stakes over this course and distance June 5 during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, he gets another gift-wrapped potential pace scenario. Jockey Javier Castellano has been one of the best front-end turf riders in the game for decades and pilots a super-consistent animal in all his turf starts. Catch him to win.

#5-NANTASKET BEACH: Red-hot former claimer has won 4 of his last 5 starts, 3 of 4 since claimed by Lauren Robson. Held form from Gulfstream to Churchill Downs and will test the Saratoga lawn for the first time Saturday. Julien Leparoux returns in the saddle aboard this 6-year-old.

#6-MOUNTAIN BEAR: Former Aidan O'Brien charge makes his second start of 2025 and second for trainer Wesley Ward after finishing second to Kelso rival Nantasket Beach in a Churchill allowance May 25. Tough draw that day from 11-hole and classy colt has placings in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Turf Mile at Keeneland and multiple group stakes in the UK.

#7-ARZAK: Top-class turf sprinter has lost 8 straight and likely this stretch out in distance is an admission that he has lost a step at age 7. His Saratoga form hasn't been poor, but a 1-for-6 local record indicates it's not his favorite surface either. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides and did guide him to his last victory, but that was the April 2024 Shakertown at Keeneland.

#8-WIN FOR THE MONEY: 13-1 upset winner of last year's Grade 1 Woodbine Mile likely using this race as a prep for that event coming up in September. The Kelso marks his first try on the Saratoga grass for trainer Mark Casse and his first start since tiring late in the 9-furlong Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream to close January. Three-week gap in the workout tab in June might put him a race or 2 away from his best.

MAIN TRACK ONLY ENTRANTS: WYNSTOCK, YO DADDY, BANK FRENZY and GAME WARDEN compete only if this races comes off the grass. It's difficult early to project who might be left in the lineup in that situation. YO DADDY and BANK FRENZY interest most looking at the brilliance needed from a dirt miler if called upon.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
DONEGAL MOMENTUM is 2-for-2 over a course in which the rest of the field is 2-for-9 combined and has a pace advantage. Even if he gets run down late, hard to imagine him off the ticket.

Best Longshot Contender:
NANTASKET BEACH defeated Mountain Bear last out and probably goes a more attractive price once again based on connections.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win DONEGAL MOMENTUM.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 08:15 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #7

#7 Spicy Princess	She took a tiny bit of cash and chased throughout in the Gulfstream debut, but that sprint run could set her up for something better on the stretchout today. Pedigree says yes.
#12 Map of the Moon	Get a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this, but she appears to be coming into this forwardly enough to think she can make some noise out of the box. Maybe.
#6 Essentially Gold	Nothing from her going short in the debut at Keeneland in April, but she'll be a huge price here with a bit of upside while moving to the turf at second asking. Some appeal in the gimmicks.
Race Summary	Surely very little chance she goes, but I'd also want to look at #16 Liz's Image ahead of this one, and debuting #10 Tearin'up My Heart feels live for a top team.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#4 Gerlin's Empire	She punched through with a nice score at Churchill after sharing at Fair Grounds this winter, and she should be in a good spot while looking for a repeat.
#5 Our Keepsake	Reliable tracking type has been settling for shares in recent runs, and she's obviously not too far off what it'd take to handle this type of company. One of the ones.
#7 On the Bridle	She gets a bit of a test here after the easy debut score at Evangeline -- she looked good that day, but against what kind of runners? Capable.
Race Summary	Toyed with #1 Catchyalater, but I'll stick to trying to find her underneath in here while rising off the modest maiden score -- her form is going the right way. Still, Gerlin's Empire should be tough.

Ellis Park - Race #9

#6 Some Performance	He hasn't done much wrong in a couple of American starts so far, and she seems tough right back with something like that last one.
#5 Anegada	Reliable finisher fits with this crew and has validated that $50,000 claiming score to graduate a couple starts back. In the mix.
#8 Tickled Quist	Dangerous pace for a dangerous team, but he's always a bit vulnerable late in the lane and could get picked up by one of the top two here.
Race Summary	Some Performance and Anegada both bring solid finishing form with them, but the former might still have more upside today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 10:41 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#10 SWIFT CANDY	Takes the class plunge and goes long for the first time in three starts.
#3 THREEDOTS ANDADASH	Troubled fave two back, ran into traffic jam in follow-up on turf.
#5 TIMBER	Steady numbers, plenty of route race experience, changes riders again.
Race Summary	SWIFT CANDY class drops, stretches out should be forwardly placed off a bullet workout despite breaking from post 10. Her dam, Swift Lady, won a 6-1/2F stakes race during a three-race winning streak early in her career. Trainer Jose D’Angelo is 28-for-103 on the turf-to-synthetic angle. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#1 PALEO’S PRINCESS	Should sit ideal stalking trip in second start off layoff at a decent price.
#10 MY LADY JAMES	Stands 21/5-4-5 with $185k bankroll on synthetic surface, use in all gimmicks.
#5 MINXY	Gunned to lead and stayed there for the first time in four starts at this level.
Race Summary	PALEO’S PRINCESS had a useful seasonal debut on turf for her new connections, has shown a passing gear that will come in handy in this field and lures Jaramillo to ride. Bet to win and place and play 1-1, 1-5, 10-1 and 10-5 daily doubles.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#5 JAMAICA REDD	Often in the hunt, been tiring in the stretch, class drop looms winning answer.
#1 BLAZING TYREEK	Responded well to lead role two back, no threat from off pace as fave in latest.
#4 TEMPERATURE RISING	Improved in first sprint attempt for this barn, gets needed class relief.
Race Summary	JAMAICA REDD wore blinkers for the first time, set the pace for twice today’s price and held third in a well-bet long sprint on turf. In the race prior, he finished 3-1/2 lengths behind runner-up Adversary, who came back in the same spot to win by 4-1/2 lengths. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 10:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 5	Leg E of the Cross Country Pick 5
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 103 • Purse: $300,000 • Post: 6:33P
INDIANA DERBY IND - R12 - GRADE 3 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $400 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $400 TO START WITH $300,000 GUARANTEED. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING OF ENTRIES FOR A FEE OF $1,500, WHICH INCLUDES ENTRY AND STARTING FEES. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, THE REMAINDER OF THE PURSE WILL BE DIVIDED; 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT; 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $60,000 ONCE AT A MILE OR OVER OR $30,000 TWICE AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 2 LBS; OF $30,000 AT A MILE OR OVER 4 LBS; OF THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING 6 LBS. MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, AND STATE BRED RACES WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED WHEN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES. CLOSED ON FRIDAY, JUNE 20, 2025, WITH 33 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. BIG TRUZZ is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BIG TRUZZ: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. COAL BATTLE: Horse's win percentage a t today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. INSTANT REPLAY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	BIG TRUZZ	9/2	9/2
3	COAL BATTLE	7/2	9/2
9	INSTANT REPLAY	4/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MASTER CONTROLLER	2	15/1	Front-runner	85	98	83.4	70.2	54.7
6	TIP TOP THOMAS	6	6/1	Front-runner	99	95	83.1	91.3	82.8
7	BIG TRUZZ	7	9/2	Stalker	102	102	96.7	96.7	89.7
3	COAL BATTLE	3	7/2	Stalker	104	100	90.2	93.2	87.2
8	BROTHA KENY	8	12/1	Stalker	90	94	77.8	84.6	70.1
9	INSTANT REPLAY	9	4/1	Stalker	99	95	74.6	93.6	85.6
4	SHAN	4	30/1	Stalker	88	89	74.0	74.5	57.5
5	CHUNK OF GOLD	5	6/1	Trailer	100	97	83.4	90.8	84.3
1	PUBLISHER	1	5/1	Trailer	101	100	82.8	89.4	83.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 10:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 3	Exacta/Trifecta (.50)/Superfecta (.10 min.)/Daily Double (Races 3-4)($1 min.) Pick 3 (Races 3-5)
Maiden • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 77 • Purse: $23,500 • Post: 7:07P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $20,000 IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ONE FINE CORONA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. LM MR SCARFACE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style des ignation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. STRATOSFACTION: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RU NAWAY FREIGHTTRAIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	ONE FINE CORONA	7/2	4/1
7	LM MR SCARFACE	5/1	6/1
6	STRATOSFACTION	3/1	7/1
4	RUNAWAY FREIGHTTRAIN	9/5	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SCUTTLEBUZZ	1	12/1	Fast	64	48	2.9	0.0	0.0
2	ONE DASHING BUG	2	15/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	8.5	0.0	0.0
3	FREIGHTTRAIN CAFE	3	8/1	Slow	0	0	7.8	0.0	0.0
4	RUNAWAY FREIGHTTRAIN	4	9/5	Fast/Trouble-prone	69	63	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	ONE FINE CORONA	5	7/2	Fast	78	72	1.0	0.0	0.0
6	STRATOSFACTION	6	3/1	Average	76	65	5.9	0.0	0.0
7	LM MR SCARFACE	7	5/1	Fast	77	62	1.9	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 10:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Wyoming Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 70

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 EXTREMELY WICKED 5/2
# 2 DRIVE FOR SHOW 9/2
# 9 SHE'S SO TRUE 7/2

I've got to go with EXTREMELY WICKED. Has to be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Serrano has one of the strongest jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to risk takers +53 percent. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 66 - of his last race. DRIVE FOR SHOW - Has garnered strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Barrio has shown excellent profits (+58 return on investment ) at this distance/surface. SHE'S SO TRUE - Must be carefully examined based on the solid Equibase speed fig garnered in the last race. Can't overlook the connections here, a 28 winning percentage, one of the top at getting into the winner's circle.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 10:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 6:30pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 WIZARDOFEZ (ML=8/1)
#5 HEAVY TIMBER (ML=15/1)

WIZARDOFEZ - This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. The race may set up nicely for this gelding's powerful rally. Look for this one to go all the way home at some decent odds in today's race. Ran fifth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the finish line. HEAVY TIMBER - This rider and trainer's horses have been generating a profitable return on investment.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BEWARE OF PRIDE (ML=2/1), #2 GENTLE BREEZE (ML=3/1), #8 TONIGHT (ML=4/1),

BEWARE OF PRIDE - This horse doesn't have a winner's spirit. Frequently finishes in the place and show spots. GENTLE BREEZE - Can't play this entrant in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance race recently. Tough for anyone who saw this pony in his last clash to play him this time around. TONIGHT - Hard to wager on a vulnerable equine that lays up for a long time then doesn't finish in the money off the long turnout.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 WIZARDOFEZ to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 10:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#4 OFF THE MEDS (ML=6/1)
#1 CANDY FOR CARMEL (ML=3/1)
#8 ADMIT NOTHING (ML=5/1)

OFF THE MEDS - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your gambling cash onto this jockey/trainer combination. This gelding has 'tactical' speed, Batista will use this advantage by laying in perfect stalking position behind the early speed, and getting first run on the leaders. CANDY FOR CARMEL - This thoroughbred coming off a solid performance in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my humble opinion. Nice return on investment for this rider and trainer twosome. The latest speed figure of 86 is the highest last race speed rating in the field. ADMIT NOTHING - This horse is in fine condition. Finished first on Jun 25th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KICK STARTNESS (ML=7/2), #7 LEMON CREEK LOUIE (ML=8/1), #6 FORMAL ORDER (ML=8/1),

KICK STARTNESS - Didn't meet expectations as the favorite the last two times. Notched a quite unimpressive speed figure last time out in a $5,000 Claiming race on June 15th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. LEMON CREEK LOUIE - Speed figs of 80/75/60 are headed the wrong way. Finished sixth in his most recent effort with a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. FORMAL ORDER - Unlikely that this horse will finish better than he did last time when placing fifth.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 OFF THE MEDS is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2025, 10:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 68

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO-YEAR-OLD QUARTER HORSES, THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THESE TRIALS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SHEZA GOLDIGGER 2/1
# 8 MARIAHS CANDY GIRL 5/1
# 1 QUEEN SIN TACHA 3/1

I favor SHEZA GOLDIGGER here. Formidable average speed figures in short races make this pony a solid contender. With Guillenchacon on top her, this filly will probably be able to break out quickly in this contest. Is a contender - given the 66 speed fig from her most recent race. MARIAHS CANDY GIRL - Looks strong versus this group of horses and will probably be one of the early speedsters. Has strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. QUEEN SIN TACHA - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this field. Has run soundly when racing a short race.

Saturday 7/5/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 7/5/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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