Sunday 7/6/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 07:24 AM

Belmont Park at Saratoga Hotlist - July 6

Jul. 04, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [OC 50k/N1X, 6F] – (2) Gun It won his last two starts while moving up the claiming ladder from $32,000 to $40,000 and got claimed three weeks ago. (4) Aggelos the Great has two races back from a three-month layoff finishing third and then did not appreciate a sloppy and sealed track at Saratoga last month. (5) One Nine Hundred broke his maiden at Aqueduct in March and then tried the Chick Lang on Preakness weekend where he set the pace.
4^th race [Clm 12500, 1 1/8 mi] – (3) Peek was a voided claim for $25,000 in May when he ran second for Linda Rice. He drops down now as Rice tries to pile up winners at Saratoga having won twice on opening day. (4) Tiberius Mercurius caught two wet and sealed tracks at Aqueduct in his last two starts finishing second and third. (5) O P Firecracker gets blinkers on in his second start since getting claimed and running third on a muddy track. He was a winner at the Big A in March. (1A) Aint No Joke has 3 wins from his last 4 starts and was claimed twice in that sequence for $16,000 and $17,500.
5^th race [Clm 17500 N2L, 6F] – (6) Trade Imbalance was claimed from Chad Brown for $17,500 by Linda Rice after setting the pace and finishing third. (3) Sittin Chilly was a debut winner in a NY-bred $30,000 claimer for Wesley Ward and he gets entered in an N2L condition where he is a serious win contender. (5) Fly’n Frisbee broke his maiden for a $20,000 tag in April at Aqueduct and then ran twice in races that were way too tough. (7) Brave Bear was claimed from a similar spot three weeks ago where he was second and comes back as a new gelding.
8^th race [Clm 12500, 6F] – (4) Rithm Nic was previously seen at Saratoga last summer and makes a significant drop in class when he was claimed five times for prices ranging from $32,000 to $62,500. (8) Forgiving Spirit was claimed at Keeneland for $20,000 by Linda Rice and was second for that price in the spring meeting. (5) Takeschargesmiling was claimed in March from an easy front-end victory at Tampa Downs. (2) Brew Pub was taken for $20,000 at Aqueduct in April and had three starts for $25,000 since then.
Best bets: Peek (4^th); Rithm Nic (8^th). Best value: Gun It (1^st); Trade Imbalance (5^th).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 07:25 AM

Monmouth Park Hotlist - July 6

Jul. 04, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) Shogun Be Fast has speed and the rail and may not look back. (9) Nimmo could perk up on turf. (5) Bramble Blaze could be a contender here. (4) Between the Covers seems ready for his 2025 debut. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-9.
3rd race – (4) Dyna Soar flopped in a stakes. Fits better here. (6) Ruth was a game second and deserves consideration here. (7) Tower Twenty Two won her last try and cannot be ignored. (3) Naked Eye should like the added distance. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-6-7.
5th race – (6) Amatteroftime seems ready for a better effort here. (3) Doin This has some speed and could hang around until the end. (4) Optic Way could be tough to catch in this field. (1) Island Spirit will be helped by a rail trip. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-6.
7th race – (5) Face Abarrio could work out a winning trip in this group. (7) Magical Warrior seeks a third straight win and should be the one to fear. (6) Feast is worth a look off the claim. (8) Baltasar should be helped by the added ground. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-7-8.
9th race – (2) Gunnery Sergeant missed by a neck and looks best here. (4) Dontbesoogrouchy can perk up back on dirt. (5) Southern Dream ships in from Parx and cannot not be overlooked. (3) K Paz is a threat on his best try. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 07:25 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Narrative - July 6, 2025

July 6, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s Saratoga Narrative
Sunday, July 6, 2025

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 1: Post: 1:10 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 6-One Hundred Ninety
Degree of Confidence: Good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: One Hundred Ninety was a beaten favorite in the Chick Lang Stakes on Preakness day but finds a reasonable spot to make amends in this second level allowance main track sprint. Drawn comfortably outside and reunited with “win rider” J. Lezcano, the son of Dialed catches a field without too much zip and projects to be the controlling speed, or at the very least find himself in a soft stalking position. A bullet half mile breeze since raced should have him on edge, so at 9/5 on the morning line the T. Morley-trained colt appears to be a logical rolling exotic single.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race: 2. Post: 1:44 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 4-Chumners
Degree of Confidence: Good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: This is a little bit of an educated guess, but we suspect Chummers will turn up a live item in this straight maiden dash for juveniles. Sold for a ham sandwich ($6,000) as a yearling, he nevertheless debuts protected by a trainer who has superb stats with first time starters, and the work tab, including a bullet half mile breeze (:47bg) from the gate a couple of weeks ago, may have tipped his ability. With F. Prat taking the call in an unclassified field, this son of Combatant should come out running, so let’s go for a gamble at or near his morning line of 7/2.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 3: Post: 2:18 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 5-Miwa
Degree of Confidence: Very good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: Miwa (GB) was overmatched in the New York S.-G1 behind She Feels Pretty and never figured in the running but certainly isn’t today. The English-bred filly displayed useful form in France last year before being imported and if she duplicates her best races overseas in this second level allowance turf marathon the T. Pletcher-trained 4-year-old should outclass this field. With the switch to L. Saez, the daughter of Siyoun is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and is worth backing on the tote at or near that price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 07:26 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 6, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Northfield Park has a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

4-Fly High Cruiser (2-1)-Won 2 back against this kind and doesn't have big gate speed. Doesn't need to blast off the gate to take a picture and Dan Noble should have in position to win.
6-Seaside Star (5-1)-Proven winner against this kind is similar to the one above. My take is Aaron Merriman may not land on top, but he will get a good seat. There isn't a lot of gate speed in this affair, so Merriman has choices. But did beat this kind coming off cover 6-8.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

7-Birthday (9/5)-The Burke trainee is in sharp form, drew off versus Open company at Mea. Hasn't raced at Nfld in a while but is no stranger to the winner's circle taking 7 pictures in 10 starts. Unless the classy veteran has an off night or a bumpy trip, he should have his way with this crew.

Race13 (10:24 PM EDT)

1-Watchagonnado (5-1)-Cashed a 3rd place check at this level back on 6-8. That effort came on a "good" track and leaving from post 7. Probably needs an inside draw to win and should offer a square price. If Chris Lems pushes the button at the right time the Ron Potter entry could reward backers.
3-Twice As Much (5/2)-Comes off a nice win a ScD, was used a couple of times and rolled by down the lane. Needs a smooth trip and this will be a test. Has only had one race at Nfld but did set a 2-year-old mark on the 1/2 at Dela.
6-Rideo Cowboy (3-1)-Finished a beaten 2nd at ScD in last and missed a start after a win 2 back. Will look for an aggressive try with Merriman in the bike.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

1-Sure Things Captain (3-1)-Beat straight Open company in the spring and later had a Judges scratch at the end of May. Since form has been in an out but the 8-hole in a couple of starts hasn't helped. This is an unproven level for most of these and will count on Merriman to be in control sooner than later.
5-Janelle Granny (5/2)-Steps up to this level after a solid effort to finish 2nd after leaving from the 2nd tier. The 4-year-old has some back class and shouldn't have an issue fitting in. Will look for pilot James Day to leave and land in a close- up seat or maybe in the pocket behind Merriman.

$1 Late Pick 4

4,6/7/1,3,6/1,5
Total Bet =$12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 07:27 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #7

#7 Spicy Princess	She took a tiny bit of cash and chased throughout in the Gulfstream debut, but that sprint run could set her up for something better on the stretchout today. Pedigree says yes.
#12 Map of the Moon	Get a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this, but she appears to be coming into this forwardly enough to think she can make some noise out of the box. Maybe.
#6 Essentially Gold	Nothing from her going short in the debut at Keeneland in April, but she'll be a huge price here with a bit of upside while moving to the turf at second asking. Some appeal in the gimmicks.
Race Summary	Surely very little chance she goes, but I'd also want to look at #16 Liz's Image ahead of this one, and debuting #10 Tearin'up My Heart feels live for a top team.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#4 Gerlin's Empire	She punched through with a nice score at Churchill after sharing at Fair Grounds this winter, and she should be in a good spot while looking for a repeat.
#5 Our Keepsake	Reliable tracking type has been settling for shares in recent runs, and she's obviously not too far off what it'd take to handle this type of company. One of the ones.
#7 On the Bridle	She gets a bit of a test here after the easy debut score at Evangeline -- she looked good that day, but against what kind of runners? Capable.
Race Summary	Toyed with #1 Catchyalater, but I'll stick to trying to find her underneath in here while rising off the modest maiden score -- her form is going the right way. Still, Gerlin's Empire should be tough.

Ellis Park - Race #9

#6 Some Performance	He hasn't done much wrong in a couple of American starts so far, and she seems tough right back with something like that last one.
#5 Anegada	Reliable finisher fits with this crew and has validated that $50,000 claiming score to graduate a couple starts back. In the mix.
#8 Tickled Quist	Dangerous pace for a dangerous team, but he's always a bit vulnerable late in the lane and could get picked up by one of the top two here.
Race Summary	Some Performance and Anegada both bring solid finishing form with them, but the former might still have more upside today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 07:27 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#10 SWIFT CANDY	Takes the class plunge and goes long for the first time in three starts.
#3 THREEDOTS ANDADASH	Troubled fave two back, ran into traffic jam in follow-up on turf.
#5 TIMBER	Steady numbers, plenty of route race experience, changes riders again.
Race Summary	SWIFT CANDY class drops, stretches out should be forwardly placed off a bullet workout despite breaking from post 10. Her dam, Swift Lady, won a 6-1/2F stakes race during a three-race winning streak early in her career. Trainer Jose D’Angelo is 28-for-103 on the turf-to-synthetic angle. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#1 PALEO’S PRINCESS	Should sit ideal stalking trip in second start off layoff at a decent price.
#10 MY LADY JAMES	Stands 21/5-4-5 with $185k bankroll on synthetic surface, use in all gimmicks.
#5 MINXY	Gunned to lead and stayed there for the first time in four starts at this level.
Race Summary	PALEO’S PRINCESS had a useful seasonal debut on turf for her new connections, has shown a passing gear that will come in handy in this field and lures Jaramillo to ride. Bet to win and place and play 1-1, 1-5, 10-1 and 10-5 daily doubles.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#5 JAMAICA REDD	Often in the hunt, been tiring in the stretch, class drop looms winning answer.
#1 BLAZING TYREEK	Responded well to lead role two back, no threat from off pace as fave in latest.
#4 TEMPERATURE RISING	Improved in first sprint attempt for this barn, gets needed class relief.
Race Summary	JAMAICA REDD wore blinkers for the first time, set the pace for twice today’s price and held third in a well-bet long sprint on turf. In the race prior, he finished 3-1/2 lengths behind runner-up Adversary, who came back in the same spot to win by 4-1/2 lengths. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 01:35 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $35100 Class Rating: 94

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 RUSE DYNASTY 123 20/1
# 5 KJ FLYING COWGIRL 5/2
# 6 PAIGE 15/1

I think RUSE DYNASTY 123 is a quite good choice especially at 20/1. Could best this group of horses based on the speed rating - 94 - of her last affair. KJ FLYING COWGIRL - She ought to be carefully examined given the very good speed figs. Has respectable front speed and will probably fare soundly versus this group of horses in this race. PAIGE - She has garnered solid figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this group of horses. Her 82 average has this mare with among the most competitive Speed Figures in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2025, 01:35 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 52

Rating:

#9 GIRLS DON'T CRY (ML=4/1)
#6 NO MORO HERE (ML=5/2)
#10 LADY KATILLAC (ML=5/1)

GIRLS DON'T CRY - Juarez was aboard this filly last out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. I do like the fact this filly is back in a race so quickly. I really like that most recent race on June 28th at Lone Star Park where she ended up third. When this jockey and conditioner team up you have to take a look. Juarez and Valdez-Cabral have been fantastic together. NO MORO HERE - This filly is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a good race is a good sign. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. I like this racer. Should be familiar with this class since she ran against the same type last out at Lone Star Park. LADY KATILLAC - The June 22nd race at Lone Star Park was at a class level of (64). Dropping down in the class scale considerably, so she should be in a good spot. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. You have to be keen on that last race speed fig, 48, which is the highest most recent race fig of this bunch. Maiden is going to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to be a first time winner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 A THOUSAND SAILS (ML=7/2), #1 WHAT MAGGIE WANTS (ML=8/1),

A THOUSAND SAILS - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint contests in order to play her. Hasn't been coming close at all of late. WHAT MAGGIE WANTS - Difficult to back any steed in a short distance event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple months. Tough to bet on any horse like this that didn't hit the board after the extended time off and comes right back.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #9 GIRLS DON'T CRY to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [9,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None